Code Word: Paternity, A Presidential Thriller (9 page)

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Chapter 16

The White House

The president reread the
Wall Street Journal’s
editorial:

Where casinos like
the Thunderbird and the Golden Phoenix once stood, another sort of bird rules. Las Vegas is now the home
of a vast congregation of vultures, carrion crows, and even seagulls, in their
thousands. The smell of death travels to the visitor and the survivor on desert
winds.

But
this is more than the smell of death. It is the smell of Evil.

We are well aware
that any use of the term “evil” invites parody. Many in the president’s party
ridiculed the phrase “axis of evil” and still refuse to receive the idea of
evil into “serious” political discourse, taking its use as evidence the speaker
is simply another redneck clinging to guns and God.

We would remind
those who have banished this term of an observation by human rights activist
Natan Sharansky, once a political prisoner in Russia’s gulag, now an Israeli
citizen and political figure. Writing about the differences between repressive
social systems and free ones, he said, “Over the years, I have come to
understand a critical difference between the world of fear and the world of
freedom. In the former, the primary challenge is finding the inner strength to
confront evil. In the latter, the primary challenge is finding the moral
clarity to
see
evil.”

We applaud the
breadth and wisdom of the plan to which President Martin so eloquently rallied
a shocked nation in the first hours after the murder of Las Vegas. As an intellectual construct, we
could not improve upon it. Although it was more a wish list than a call to
arms, it really is all that is possible right now because we don’t know—as the
president said, “yet”—whom to hold to account.

When we do know,
we expect President Martin to have the moral clarity to reject the counsel of
those who will say we brought this on ourselves, or who claim that retaliation
is beneath a great nation, or any of the other echoes that persist of the
puerile sixties refrain, “hey, can’t we all just get along?”

The
answer to that question is no, we can’t, not after Las Vegas.

 

Martin gulped the rest of his coffee and
walked down the South Portico to the Oval Office. If the
Journal
’s editorial board knew what Aaron had told him last night,
what would they call for him to do now? He was pretty sure he knew.

As usual, Bart Guarini and John Dorn
attended the daily intelligence briefing. Afterwards, Hendricks looked at the
president inquiringly. His look said, “now for Paternity. Do you want these
guys in the room?”

 
Martin spoke: “Bart and John, we’re going to
hear from Aaron about a scientific analysis that may help identify the bomb.
I’ve asked Bruce and Sam to join us.”
 

When Griffith and Yu had poured coffee
and taken seats, Martin looked around and said, “Aaron has additional
information about the bomb. This information comes from something called the
Paternity Project, which will be new to you, Bart and Sam. The NSC has had a
presentation on Paternity and after this meeting I’d like you to go to the skif
for that same briefing.”

Well,
that should make Bruce feel better,
thought Rick
. He knows he was brought
into Paternity before Bart.

“Go ahead
Aaron.”

“Mr. President, let me begin by
summarizing matters briefly for Bart and Sam. For more than forty years, we‘ve
been collecting, both clandestinely and openly, samples of nuclear material
from around the world. This material is for the Paternity Project, one of our
most tightly held secrets. The resulting library has given us the capability to
determine the origin of the uranium or plutonium in a bomb, either before or
after it has exploded. The Paternity analysis has already been used
successfully on three occasions, one involving tests by Pakistan and two by North Korea. When the Paks tested,
we revealed something about it to the Chinese. Las Vegas is the fourth time we’ve done this
analysis.

“Our assessment has been conducted
independently by two teams. Both reached the same result: Las
Vegas was destroyed by a plutonium weapon, and the plutonium came
from North Korea’s
Yongbyon fuel reprocessing facility. I have no doubt about that. Let me show
you something.”

An assistant handed Hendricks four
charts. He gave one to Martin and passed the others to Guarini, who handed them
around. Each chart had three patterns of vertical lines marching across it, one
above the other, apparently identical. The top pattern was labeled “First DPRK
Test.” The middle pattern was labeled “Second DPRK Test” and he bottom one, “Las Vegas.”

“These charts display the results of
spectrographic analyses of the particles collected after North Korean tests in
2006 and 2009, and at Las Vegas.
As you can see, they match.

“This is not the only evidence. Paternity
has samples of the fuel rods used in Kim’s research reactor and copies of its
operating records indicating what the isotopic composition of plutonium
reprocessed from those fuel rods would be. We ran another analysis, comparing
the isotopic composition of the Las
Vegas sample to the predicted isotopic composition of
plutonium from Yongbyon. They matched.

“There are third and fourth pieces of
evidence. They’re not as solid, but they also point to North Korea.

“This explosion was weak, as nuclear
explosions go. We estimate one to five kilotons. There’s evidence that the
uncontrolled chain reaction—the explosion—was poorly tamped. In other words,
the force of the explosion blew the plutonium apart so rapidly that very little
of it exploded. This matches what we found in samples of their test in 2006,
which was also only about six kilotons, and in 2009.

“The fourth piece of evidence is that
last January an account controlled by Kim received a deposit of one billion
Swiss francs from an Iranian bank.

“We believe the Las Vegas bomb was of
North Korean origin, Mr. President.”

Rick noted the qualifications in that
careful statement, but of course Hendrickson
would
hedge.

He spoke: “Aaron told me last night, so
I’ve had a little more time to absorb it. But I’d like to hear your initial
reactions.”

Dorn said, “OK, now we can start
developing a specific strategy. How much confidence do we have in this
information? That’s question one. Two, with that figured out, what actions do
we take? Three, do we put this out and if so, to whom?”

“I think we put it out there,” said Yu.
“It’s going to leak. We can’t have as many agencies and people as we need
working on our response without a leak; it’s a given.”

“Before we do that, we probably should
privately brief key ambassadors; and let the president make a few calls to
heads of state, before we do that,” said Battista.

“Don’t forget briefing congressional
leaders,” Guarini added, to a chorus of agreement from all but the vice
president.

“That’s only window dressing!” said Griffith. “What really
matters is what this administration is going to do about the fact that North Korea
enabled terrorists to kill tens of thousands of Americans on June thirteenth.
And it’s not just about what they
did
.
It’s about blocking what they
may do next
.
We must act!”

Martin’s eyes narrowed.
There he goes again, half-cocked!
“Bruce, what about John’s first point—what
’s our
confidence in Paternity
?”

“Mr. President, we’ve just seen the
evidence and it’s solid. Aaron says he has no doubts. That’s good enough for
me!”

“George Tenet
believed Saddam had WMD and he was dead wrong.”

The VP interlaced his fingers and leaned
forward, forearms on the table. His voice rang with conviction: “This is not
the same situation, not even close! One—Paternity is a proven technolog
y. Two—we’re not guessing
Kim has nuclear weapons; h
e’s shown the world
by testing them. Three—Kim
has a record:
He sold missiles to Iran and
Pakistan
and helped Syria
build a nuclear reactor to make plutonium. Four—the stakes are much higher now.
If Kim continues to pass nukes to terrorists, more cities will be destroyed. America will
come apart if that happens!”

The president, sitting with legs crossed
in his back-tilted chair, thought about asking Griffith what he recommended but didn’t want
that discussion now. Scrambling like a quarterback, he lobbed a pass. “Bart,
you haven’t said much yet.”

“That’s right, sir. I really need the
full briefing first. Sam and I should get up to speed.”
 

Martin nodded.
Good ol’ Bart! He always gets it.

“Right! Let’s wrap this up so you and Sam
can do just that. Aaron, Bruce, and I need Bart for a meeting in an hour, so
get to it now. Bruce, see you at ten thirty.”

 

Right on schedule, Guarini and Griffith
returned to the Oval Office. Martin motioned to the couches and sank into a
wingback chair facing them.

“Bruc
e,
last nigh
t
I came to an important conclusion.
The gravity and complexity of this situation requires unprecedented measures.
No administration since Lincoln’s has faced such
a combination of destruction and
danger within America’s
borders.
On top of that, there are huge challenges abroad, beginning with the one we
spoke about an hour ago. There is simply too much presidential-level decision
making and leadership for me to do it all. I’ve decided to give you a very
large, critically important set of responsibilities.”

Martin paused, looking intently into Griffith’s eyes, seeing
curiosity, caution, and ambition. “Bruce, I’m putting you in charge of
recovery, reconstruction, and internal security. Your authority and
responsibility will be second only to mine in those areas.”

The two gazed at each other, probing
eyes, as Griffith
did the risk-benefit calculations and took notice that he was not being invited
to consider this role. It was being assigned. Realizing he had to accept, he
decided to see what more he could get.

The vice president’s voice grated,
failing in its attempt to mask ambition with sincerity: “Mr. President, it
means more than I can express that you have the confidence, in me, and in
yourself, to create a co-presidency. That’s in the country’s best interest.
Together, we’ll bring America
out of this stronger and better than she went into it!”

Martin
straightened and set his shoulders
.
Co-presidency! Right in my face. I can’t let that pass!

“Bruce, there’s no authority in the
Constitution for a co-presidency and neither of us can call it that. That is
not
what I’m saying to you! But you
will
have the second-largest executive
role in this administration, a role without precedent for any vice president.”

Griffith
knew he had overreached but had no
regrets, felt no embarrassment. He smiled. “Of course, Mr. President. I phrased
that awkwardly, but I know you realize I meant what you just expressed much
more accurately. You want Bart and me to work out the details and get back to
you?”

“That’s right.” Martin looked at his
wristwatch. “You might as well get started!”

As he left with the vice president, Bart
wondered if they had just made a terrible mistake.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Chapter 17

“Sit. Let’s get started—Aaron?”

The president spoke as he crossed the
threshold of the main conference room of the Situation Room, removing his coat
and loosening his tie as he moved to his chair for the NSC meeting. Martin had
considered including Sam Yu but decided against it; the discussion might cover
plans she would need to deny.

Tuning Hendricks out, Rick thought,
how did we let it get this far? We’ve had
evidence for over twenty years that the Kims were selling weapons and we’ve
known for nearly that long the current Kim had nukes. Those aren’t dots;
they’re flashing lights, at least now. But nobody wanted to open that can of
worms.

 

Hendricks wound
up: “So that’s what we’ve got, and we believe it’s conclusive.”

He looked at the president, who said,
“I’m going to leave you to discuss this. I want you to chall
enge
Paternity, because for sure others will.

“Something more . . .” Martin’s eyes
found theirs, each in turn. “I have decided to put the vice president in charge
of all relief, recovery and internal security operations. His authority in
those areas is now second only to mine. It’s a huge job and without someone of
Bruce’s abilities and patriotism to handle it, I’d be so consumed I wouldn’t be
able to effectively pursue critical international initiatives.

“Bruce, thank you for stepping up to the
plate on this.”

Preening, Griffith said, “Mr. President each of us in
this room would do anything to help the nation through this crisis. I will
dedicate myself to being worthy of this trust.”

“I know you will, Bruce. There are some
details to be worked out, so we’ll keep it under wraps until we’re ready to
announce the full scope of your role.”

As he left, the president frowned:
could Guarini and Dorn keep Griffith from grabbing control of the
meeting?
And the hurt in Sara Zimmer’s face when he’d announced Griffith’s
new role—he’d have to take her aside and reassure her.

 

After a moment, Easterly said, “Mr. Vice
President, you’ve been handed an incredibly tough job. You’ll have my full
support.” The others voiced a hubbub of similar sentiments.

“Thank you all.
Now let’s get to work on a plan for North Korea.”

Dorn spoke quickly: “Yes, well let’s take
it step by step, based on our earlier discussion.”

“What’s to discuss?” said Griffith. “North Korea
must be made to pay an appropriate price.”

Battista said, “Yes, but what’s
appropriate, and when and how is the price to be paid? How will our actions be
perceived by our allies? By our enemies? We have a lot to consider.”

“Let’s not make this harder than it is,”
said the vice president. “Look, we got a break here. Kim Jong-il is one of the
most isolated and disliked leaders on the planet. In fact, he probably is
the
most isolated and disliked. He’s a
brutal dictator who’s allowed his own people to starve. Nobody’s going to feel
sorry for him when we nail him. We give him an ultimatum: step down or we take
you out!”

“Does anybody else think that sounds like
what the Bushies told Saddam Hussein?”
said Easterly,
brow furrowed.
“Saddam was all of those things, but when we ‘took him
out’ as you say, look what happened! We don’t want to repeat that.”

“Eric, this isn’t Iraq! We have
the smoking gun—Las Vegas.
In fact, it’s the
opposite
of Iraq! We
invaded Iraq
to keep Saddam from passing nuclear or chemical or bioweapons to terrorists
when he thought the time was right. We didn’t wait to be hit:
 
we prevented a hit. Or some would say, since
we didn’t find WMD, we were fooled and fought an unnecessary war. On the other
hand, we’ve done nothing but negotiate with North Korea. We waited, and they
hit us. What I’m speaking of is hitting back, not a preemptive strike.”

“Bruce, what do you have in mind when you
say hitting back?” Griffith
preferred to be called Mr. Vice President, as Anne Battista well knew. Using
his first name felt good—petty maybe, but good.

“Order him to leave the country! I don’t
even care if he goes someplace we can’t get him. Just so he goes, and takes his
henchmen with him.”

Easterly waded back in. “Well, putting
aside for now the loose ends that would leave, what do you have in mind if,
like Saddam, he denies everything and refuses to go?”

Griffith
glared at the secretary of defense. “We
remove him forcibly!”

“And how would we do that?

“General MacAdoo, what are the prospects
if we invade North Korea
to remove Kim?”

“Mr. Secretary, my estimate is that it
would be worse than the first time we fought in Korea, and that was a long, bloody
slog. And this time around Pyongyang has
missiles that could reach Japan
and maybe Hawaii,
plus, apparently, nuclear warheads to put on them. And there’s South Korea—Kim could pulverize Seoul in a few days using conventional
artillery if he didn’t want to use a nuke. Plus, of course, there’s China. The last
time they sent over a million soldiers to help North Korea.”

Griffith
leaned forward, face set. “So, instead
we send special forces and grab him or kill him.”

“That’s an option, Mr. Vice President,
but I don’t think the odds would be in our favor. North Korea is the world’s most
closed, tightly policed society. Kim’s location and movements are extremely
hard to know. I’m sure Secretary Easterly will present you with options if
asked, but that’s my top-of-the-head thinking on it.”

MacAdoo looked at Easterly as if gazing
at an oracle. Guarini thought again that Mac was a kiss-up, more bureaucrat
than general.

“Mr. Vice President, I’ve thought some
about that—not studied it, just kicked it around. On the one hand, it’s a
classic special ops mission. But the challenges to a team inserting and
lingering undetected until Kim did something that made him vulnerable, like
traveling out of Pyongyang
to one of his palaces, are huge. I’ll look at it in more detail, but I think
Mac just gave a good summation of the risk and odds in general.”

The vice president glanced down at the
table, fiddled with his coffee cup, sighed, then spoke. This time there was
none of the hectoring, challenging tone he had just displayed.

“In that case, we must consider
responding in kind. We could take out Kim by destroying Pyongyang with a nuclear missile. That would
change the regime and even the score in one move, without a single U.S. casualty.”

His words washed over them like ice
water. No one else spoke or moved.

Without
even acknowledging it,
thought Guarini,
he’s proposing to
forever change America’s
relationship with the rest of the world and with itself, with its own soul. But
the hell of it is, he’s right, if you consider only meeting the threat and
preserving American, South Korean, and Japanese lives. His thinking is so
different from Rick’s; he doesn’t see the big picture! That option is going
nowhere while Rick is president—but it’s going to appeal to a lot of Americans.
We’ve got to keep this guy contained!

Feeling certain that he spoke for the
president and everyone knew it, Guarini said, “Well, it might come to that, but
there are still options we haven’t discussed.”

Griffith
nodded, tight-lipped.

 
“Here’s one,” said Easterly. “We blockade North Korea as
a means of preventing any other nuclear weapons leaving the country.”

“Blockade is
generally considered an act of war,” said Battista.

“So is
everything else we’ve been talking about!” said Easterly.

“I just wanted to be clear about that,”
she responded. “I’ll get the department’s lawyers on it immediately. What they
tell us might matter a great deal. But that’s about what we
call
it, not what we
do
. I think some form of action along
those lines may be a good option.”

Dorn perked up. “OK, let’s examine the
blockade option,” he said, drawing a grid on his notepaper. “Mr. Secretary, how
does blockading North Korea
strike you as to the level of effort and the chances of success?”

“I’ll have to get the details, but it
appears doable and I see no reason it wouldn’t be successful. Aaron, am I
correct in believing that not much moves in or out of North Korea
anyway, by sea or air, I mean?”

“That’s right.”

“OK,” said Easterly, “a nuclear weapon in
a confined space is hard to hide from an alerted and well-equipped search party
with plenty of time to work. The ships would be pretty easy. Dealing with
aircraft could be tough. Once one is airborne from Pyongyang we’ve either got to shoot it down
or force it to land for inspection or take possession of it as soon as it
reaches its destination. That could be tricky. Suppose it lands in China, or Iran?”

Battista leaped in: “North Korea has
two land borders. Probably to the south we could induce the South Koreans to
cooperate with the blockade and even assist us—although that’s not a given. But
China
in the north? I don’t think so. I think our blockade would have a big hole in
it unless we persuaded the Chinese to participate.”

“So,” said Dorn, “blockade is feasible
but not effective unless the Chinese and the South Koreans do their parts. Not
so good as it appears at first.” A spoiler’s sly smile flitted across his face,
but Easterly ignored the jibe.

Dorn
said, “I think the group has developed
several options: forcing Kim out by political pressure backed up by the threat
of force; capturing or killing him with a special forces operation; blockading
North Korea to prevent Kim from sending more nukes out to terrorists; using a
nuclear weapon to kill Kim and thousands of residents of Pyongyang, thereby
creating regime change.” Dorn looked around the room expecting conclusion, but
Guarini stuck a foot in the door he wanted to close.

“Hey, Aaron and Scott,” said the chief of
staff. “We haven’t talked about CIA playing an operational role in this. Have
you got capabilities for snatching Kim, or for anything else that would help us
here?”

Hitzleberger responded immediately, and
everyone saw his pleasure in taking up a topic about which he had more
expertise than his boss, Hendricks. They all knew he hated the fact that CIA
now worked for someone other than the president. “We have nobody inside North Korea. We
do have formal intelligence-sharing agreements with South Korea. We also have assets
inside the South Korean government who pass us additional snippets of what
their agents—who are very good—learn about the North.”

 
“How about using those Predator drones of
yours, like you used to take out al-Qaeda leaders?” Guarini made a pistol of
his right hand and leveled it at Griffith.
Battista stifled her smile.

“Sure, Bart. They could be part of the
mix, but the North Koreans have an air force and plenty of SAMs. The drones
couldn’t loiter over the DPRK the way they do above northeast Afghanistan.
They’d be shot down. We could keep ’em on alert in South Korea and send them
north to support an op there—assuming the South Koreans allowed it—but they
might be detected and alert Kim that something’s up. Conditions are just not
good for drones.”

“OK, thanks, Scott.” Guarini looked
around the table, the others’ silence acknowledging his authority.
That peacock!
thought Griffith.
Never
been elected dogcatcher, never heard a shot fired in anger; my three senate
terms and

Purple
Heart . .
.

Guarini ignored Griffith’s obvious feelings. “This has been a
very useful first discussion. The president will study John’s report of the
options carefully and will want to discuss them with you soon. I don’t need to
tell you that any option involving a nuclear strike will be last on his list,
at least for the present.

“There’s something else I think he wants
discussed: what should be our strategy with the information that Aaron’s just
given us, that the bomb was North Korean?”

Dorn winced at his oversight as chairman
but said, “Right you are, Bart!” He glanced at his notes as he spoke. “I
believe we concluded that going public quickly was the right approach. Another
point of interest is that we should share Paternity data with the IAEA. Because
they’ve done so in the past, we can assume that Britain,
France, Russia, and China will collect samples and do
analyses of their own. And we’re going to face doubt because of the debacle
over Saddam’s WMD.”

He’s
such a technician
,
thought Guarini.
I wonder if he’s the
right guy for these times.
He spoke: “I think the first thing we need to
recommend is the approach the president should take. Is he just going to
announce this, or is he going to follow the announcement with his plan of
action?”

Griffith
said, “Bart, he’s got to say what he’s
going to do! He can’t just say he’s going to think it over. He doesn’t have to
position it as the full response or go into detail, but there’s gotta be
payback for what the North Koreans did to us.”

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