Cyber Warfare (3 page)

Even away from the coasts, extreme weather can threaten the system in unexpected ways. Some systems use gas insulation, but if the temperature drops low enough, the gas composition changes and the insulation fails. Power plants in warmer places like Texas aren't well-prepared for extreme cold, meaning plants could fail when the population most needs them to provide power for heat. As utilities rely more heavily on natural gas to generate power, there's a danger of demand exceeding supply. A likely scenario is a blizzard in which everyone cranks up their propane or natural gas-powered heating systems. As the system becomes overwhelmed, the gas company can't provide to everyone. Power providers don't necessarily have the first right of refusal from their sources, so they could lose supplies and be forced to power down in the middle of a winter storm.

Summer doesn't offer any respite. Even prolonged droughts play a role. As consumers turn up their air conditioners, requests for more power increased. There can be a ratcheting effect. If there are several days of consistently high temperatures, buildings never cool completely. The demand from local utilities will peak higher and higher each day. Power plants rely upon groundwater to cool their systems. They will struggle to maintain cooling as the water itself heats up. Droughts can diminish the power from hydroelectric plants, especially in the western United States.

If extreme weather continues to be the norm, the chaos unleashed on the grid by Sandy may be just a preview of the sorts of disruptions to the grid that might become commonplace. Or as the New York Herald argued in 1859, referring to the Carrington event, "Phenomena are not supposed to have any reference to things past—only to things to come. Therefore, the aurora borealis must be connected with something in the future—war, or pestilence, or famine." Although the impact of solar storms was not fully understood at the time, the prediction of catastrophe remains valid.

Science Fiction or Reality

All of the events described above are plausible and have their roots in history. What could happen? Global Panic. Martial Law. Travel Restrictions. Food and Water Shortages. An Overload of the Medical System. Societal Collapse. Economic Collapse.

This is why we prep. Prepping is insurance against both natural and man-made catastrophic events. The government now requires you to carry medical insurance. Your homeowner's insurance may include damage from tornadoes. Even though you may never incur damage from a tornado, you pay for that coverage monthly nonetheless. This is what preppers do. We allocate time and resources to protect our families in the event of seemingly unlikely events but events that are occurring daily or have historical precedent.

At Freedom Preppers, we hope none of these catastrophic events occur, but
what if
?

CYBER ATTACK

Simply put, a Cyber Attack is a deliberate exploitation of computer systems. Cyber Attacks are used to gain access to information but can also be used to alter computer code, insert malware or take over the operations of a computer driven network.

Why would terrorists bother with an elaborate, dangerous physical operation—complete with all the recon and planning of a black ops mission—when they could achieve the same effect from the comfort of their home? An effective cyber attack could, if cleverly designed, produce a great deal of physical damage very quickly, and interconnections in digital operations would mean such an attack could bypass fail safes in the physical infrastructure that stop cascading failures.

One string of 1s and 0s could have a significant impact. If a computer hacker could command all the circuit breakers in a utility to open, the system will be overloaded. Power utility personnel sitting in the control room could do it. A proficient cyber-terrorist can do it as well. In fact, smart-grid technologies are more susceptible to common computer failures. New features added to make the system easily manageable might render it more vulnerable.

At least one major public official downplays the cyber attack scenario. The nation's top disaster responder, FEMA director Craig Fugate, shrugs at the threat of an power grid collapse.

"When have people panicked? Generally what you find is the birth rate goes up nine months later," he said, then turned more serious: "People are much more resilient than the professionals would give them credit for. Would it be unpleasant? Yes. Would it be uncomfortable? Have you ever seen the power go out, and traffic signals stop working? Traffic's hell but people figure it out."

Fugate's big worry in a mass outage is communication, he said. When people can get information and know how long power will be out, they handle it much better.

Don’t worry, the government will take care of you. Naïve.

In poll after poll, one of the threats concerning preppers is the use of a cyber attack to cause a grid down scenario. There are many bad actors on the international stage. Each is capable of wreaking havoc in the US by shutting down our power grid and enjoying the resulting chaos.

No bombs. No bullets. No swordfights. Just a few keystrokes on the computer. And we're done.

Cyber Warfare
is a primer on the threats we face as a nation from the
bad actors
mentioned above. This guide will also help you answer the question:

What if
?

Epigraph

There are risks and costs to action. But they are far less than the long range risks of comfortable inaction.

~ John F. Kennedy

*****

I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.

~Albert Einstein

*****

Civilization is like a thin layer of ice upon a deep ocean of chaos and darkness.

~ Werner Herzog

*****

Timeo Danaos et dona ferentis ~ Beware of Greeks bearing gifts.

~ Vergil’s words for the voice of Laocoon in the Aeneid

*****

By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.

~ Benjamin Franklin

*****

In war, knowledge must become capability.

~ Carl von Clausewitz,
On War

*****

The End Of The World As We Know It

TEOTWAWKI

PART ONE
What is Cyber Warfare?

Chapter One
Cyber Terminology

What is cyber warfare?

Every media outlet or talk show uses the terms
cyber warfare
,
cyber terrorism
, and
cyber vandalism
, often in dire and apocalyptic tones. Reports may depict some obscure but imminent danger or threat to our nation, our corporate enterprises, or even our personal liberties. Visit a technological vendor expo or a security conference and you will hear the same terms in the same tones. Knowing that fear is a great motivator, the vendors use the terms to frighten you into believing your information is unsafe unless you purchase the numerous products or services available to combat the
cyber-whatever
.

As you follow news reports or conduct your research on the subject, you will not find clear and standardized definitions of what constitutes
cyber warfare
,
cyber terrorism
,
cyber espionage
and
cyber vandalism
. Many resources can’t even agree on the spelling. Is
cyber warfare
one word or two? Should a dash connect them?

Because of this, it’s become increasingly difficult to cut through the hyperbole and truly understand the risk associated with the technological advances the human race has achieved. For example, depending on perspective, some politicians and pundits believe the United States is engaged in cyber warfare with North Korea. But on the other hand, President Obama dismissed the Sony hack as cyber vandalism. Who’s right? It depends on one’s perspective or agenda.

The issue of definition is exacerbated by the fact such terms are often used interchangeably and without regard to the corresponding real-world equivalents. The first step in the analysis of Cyber Warfare is to find and provide a common language to help wade through the politicking and marketing.

Our planet will always be in a state of constant conflict. Our technological advances reach from the physical realm into the network of interconnected telecommunications equipment known as cyberspace. Private-sector firms, government institutions, the military, criminals, terrorists, and spies are all actors in the theater of cyberspace. Each of these actors may have varying goals that are all interwoven, operating within the same medium. What separates these actors and accounts for the different definitions in
cyber
terms are their ideologies, objectives, and methods.

The best way to forge an understanding of the differences in terms is to look at the conventional definitions of certain words and directly apply them to cyberspace. For example, traditional, kinetic warfare has a precise definition that 's hard to dispute—
a conflict between two or more governments or militaries that include death, property destruction and collateral damage as an objective.
Cyber warfare, therefore, uses the same principles of goals, actors and methods that one can examine against a cyber attack to ascertain the gravity of the situation.

Let’s examine two of the most common phrases used, “cyberspace” and “cyber attack” and get to the root of what they mean.

Cyberspace & Cyber Attacks

The realm in which all of this takes place is cyberspace, and as previously stated, can be thought of as a theater of operation.

Author William Gibson coined the term cyberspace in his science fiction hit
Neuromancer
. The novel tells the story of a washed-up computer hacker hired by a mysterious employer to pull off the ultimate hack — enter the mind of a powerful artificial intelligence orbiting the earth. This novel has over a million copies in print.

The Department of Defense defines cyberspace as—
A domain characterized by the use of electronics and the electromagnetic spectrum to store, modify, and exchange data via networked systems and associated physical infrastructures
.

A good analogy to help understand the concept of cyberspace. Let’s draw a parallel to your physical space. You, dear reader, are a person, and you are somewhere—perhaps an office, house or by the pool reading this on your Kindle. This is your environment, your space. You have objects around you that you interact with—a spouse, a sofa, a TV, or building. You are an actor in this space, and there are other actors around you; most have good intentions, and some have evil intentions. At any point, someone in this environment can act against you or act against an object in the environment.

Cyberspace is essentially the same: it is an environment in which you operate. Instead of physically
being
somewhere, you are using computer equipment to interact over a network and connect to other resources that give you information. Instead of
objects
, like a car or a sofa, you have email, websites, games, and databases.

Just like real life, most people you interact with are benign, but some are malicious. In the physical space, a vandal can pick up a spray paint can and tag your car. In cyberspace, a vandal can replace your website’s home page with web defacement. This is called a cyber attack, and the vandal is a cyber-vandal.

The graphic below illustrates the overall cyberspace environment, threat actors, and possible targets. To help you conceptualize this, think about the same model, but in a physical space.

Take away the word
cyber
and you have warriors, terrorists, vandals, and spies that attack a variety of targets. The actual attack may look the same or similar coming from various threat actors, but goals, ideology, and methods differentiate them.

An excellent definition of an attack that occurs in cyberspace comes from James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence—
a non-kinetic offensive operation intended to create physical effects or to manipulate, disrupt, or delete data.
DNI Clapper intentionally left this definition very broad. It does not attempt to attribute political ideologies, motivations, resources, affiliations or objectives. It merely states the characteristics and outcome of the cyber intrusion.