Read The Dictator's Handbook Online
Authors: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
The Dictator's Handbook (49 page)
23
Http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-South-Central/2010/0812/Pakistan-floods-strand-the-poor-while-rich-go-to-higher-ground
.
Http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-South-Central/2010/0812/Pakistan-floods-strand-the-poor-while-rich-go-to-higher-ground
.
25
See Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and George W. Downs, “Intervention and Democracy,”
International Organization
60, no. 3 (July 2006): 627â649.
Chapter 8: The People in RevoltSee Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and George W. Downs, “Intervention and Democracy,”
International Organization
60, no. 3 (July 2006): 627â649.
1
Portions of this chapter are drawn from several of our academic undertakings, including Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “Political Survival
and Endogenous Institutional Change,”
Comparative Political Studies
42, no. 2 (February 2009): 167â197; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita,
Principles of International Politics,
4th ed. (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2009); and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow,
The Logic of Political Survival
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003).
Portions of this chapter are drawn from several of our academic undertakings, including Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “Political Survival
and Endogenous Institutional Change,”
Comparative Political Studies
42, no. 2 (February 2009): 167â197; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita,
Principles of International Politics,
4th ed. (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2009); and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow,
The Logic of Political Survival
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003).
2
Translated by Yung Wei in personal correspondence, drawn from Hong-she Zhong-gui (Red China), December 1, 1931. We are most grateful to Yung Wei for bringing this quotation to our attention.
Translated by Yung Wei in personal correspondence, drawn from Hong-she Zhong-gui (Red China), December 1, 1931. We are most grateful to Yung Wei for bringing this quotation to our attention.
3
Frank D. Cornfield,
The Origins and Growth of Mau Mau: An Historical Survey,
Sessional Paper number 5 of 1959/60 of Kenya LegCo (Nairobi: Government of Colony and Protectorate of Kenya, 1960), 301â308.
Frank D. Cornfield,
The Origins and Growth of Mau Mau: An Historical Survey,
Sessional Paper number 5 of 1959/60 of Kenya LegCo (Nairobi: Government of Colony and Protectorate of Kenya, 1960), 301â308.
4
Julia Preston and Samuel Dillon,
Opening Mexico. The Making of a Democracy
(New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2005).
Julia Preston and Samuel Dillon,
Opening Mexico. The Making of a Democracy
(New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2005).
5
Emma Larkin,
Everything Is Broken: A Tale of Catastrophe in Burma
(New York: Penguin Press, 2010). We draw extensively on her account of Burmese politics.
Emma Larkin,
Everything Is Broken: A Tale of Catastrophe in Burma
(New York: Penguin Press, 2010). We draw extensively on her account of Burmese politics.
6
Ibid., 78â79.
Ibid., 78â79.
7
Eyes of the Storm: Turning Points in Burmese History
. PBS wide-angle documentary series,
WNET.org
, August 19, 2009.
Eyes of the Storm: Turning Points in Burmese History
. PBS wide-angle documentary series,
WNET.org
, August 19, 2009.
8
Alejandro Quiroz Flores and Alastair Smith, “Surviving Disasters,” Working Paper, NYU, 2010.
Alejandro Quiroz Flores and Alastair Smith, “Surviving Disasters,” Working Paper, NYU, 2010.
9
This is true despite earthquakes being more likely to strike democracies than autocracies.
This is true despite earthquakes being more likely to strike democracies than autocracies.
11
Julien Levesque, “Lords of Jade: Mismanagement of Myanmar's Natural Resources,”
Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies,
Issue Brief No. 60 (March 2008).
Julien Levesque, “Lords of Jade: Mismanagement of Myanmar's Natural Resources,”
Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies,
Issue Brief No. 60 (March 2008).
12
Francis X. Clines, “Soviet Crackdown: Latvia's Leader Tries to Placate the Kremlin,”
New York Times,
January 17, 1991. Accessed at
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CEED81030F934A25752C0A967958260
.
Francis X. Clines, “Soviet Crackdown: Latvia's Leader Tries to Placate the Kremlin,”
New York Times,
January 17, 1991. Accessed at
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CEED81030F934A25752C0A967958260
.
14
New York Times
, December 1990, at
http://www.nytimes.com/1990/12/20/world/gorbachev-urged-to-consider-crackdown-in-republics.html
.
New York Times
, December 1990, at
http://www.nytimes.com/1990/12/20/world/gorbachev-urged-to-consider-crackdown-in-republics.html
.
15
Data from World Bank's World Development Indicators, per capita GDP reported in constant 2000 $US.
Data from World Bank's World Development Indicators, per capita GDP reported in constant 2000 $US.
16
Albert Adu Boahen,
The Ghanaian Sphinx: Reflections on the Contemporary History of Ghana, 1972â1987,
The J. B. Danquah Memorial Lectures, Series 21, February 1988, (Accra, Ghana: Ghana Academy of Arts and Science, 1989), 51.
Albert Adu Boahen,
The Ghanaian Sphinx: Reflections on the Contemporary History of Ghana, 1972â1987,
The J. B. Danquah Memorial Lectures, Series 21, February 1988, (Accra, Ghana: Ghana Academy of Arts and Science, 1989), 51.
17
Naomi Chazan, “The Political Transformation of Ghana under the PNDC,” in Donald Rothchild (ed.),
The Political Economy of Ghana
(Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1991), 27.
Naomi Chazan, “The Political Transformation of Ghana under the PNDC,” in Donald Rothchild (ed.),
The Political Economy of Ghana
(Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1991), 27.
18
Interview by Alastair Smith with Nat Nuno-Amarteifio, former Mayor of Accra, May 2008.
Interview by Alastair Smith with Nat Nuno-Amarteifio, former Mayor of Accra, May 2008.
19
Nicolas Van de Walle,
African Economies and the Politics of Permanent Crisis, 1979â1999
(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 241â242.
Chapter 9: War, Peace, and World OrderNicolas Van de Walle,
African Economies and the Politics of Permanent Crisis, 1979â1999
(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 241â242.
1
Much of this section is based on Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M., Siverson, and James D. Morrow,
The Logic of Political Survival
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003), chapter 6; and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, and Alastair Smith, “Testing Novel Implications from the Selectorate Theory of War,”
World Politics
56 (April 2004): 363â388. Those interested in the logical, mathematical proofs of the claims made here should refer to these and other publications cited throughout.
Much of this section is based on Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M., Siverson, and James D. Morrow,
The Logic of Political Survival
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003), chapter 6; and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, and Alastair Smith, “Testing Novel Implications from the Selectorate Theory of War,”
World Politics
56 (April 2004): 363â388. Those interested in the logical, mathematical proofs of the claims made here should refer to these and other publications cited throughout.
3
Caspar Weinberger, “The Use of Military Power,” Remarks delivered to the National Press Club, Washington, DC, November 28, 1984. See
http://www.airforce-magazine.com/MagazineArchive/Documents/2004/January2004/0104keeperfull.pdf
.
Caspar Weinberger, “The Use of Military Power,” Remarks delivered to the National Press Club, Washington, DC, November 28, 1984. See
http://www.airforce-magazine.com/MagazineArchive/Documents/2004/January2004/0104keeperfull.pdf
.
4
See The Correlates of War Project's data on Israel, Egypt, Jordan, and Syria for 1967, at
http://www.correlatesofwar.org/datasets.htm
.
See The Correlates of War Project's data on Israel, Egypt, Jordan, and Syria for 1967, at
http://www.correlatesofwar.org/datasets.htm
.
5
Anna Getmansky, “Protecting the Protectors: A Cross-National Study of Domestic Regimes and Protection of Soldiers,” Working Paper, Department of Politics, New York University, 2008.
Anna Getmansky, “Protecting the Protectors: A Cross-National Study of Domestic Regimes and Protection of Soldiers,” Working Paper, Department of Politics, New York University, 2008.
7
In Europe in the 1980s it was a popular joke that Ronald Reagan was America's apology for being late for the first two World Wars, by being really punctual for the next.
In Europe in the 1980s it was a popular joke that Ronald Reagan was America's apology for being late for the first two World Wars, by being really punctual for the next.
8
Graph is generated using military expenditure from the Correlate of War Project's National Material Capabilities Data. We do not have data for Austria in 1919 as Austria-Hungary ceased to exist.
Graph is generated using military expenditure from the Correlate of War Project's National Material Capabilities Data. We do not have data for Austria in 1919 as Austria-Hungary ceased to exist.
9
For a more detailed and rigorous account of how our perspective explains the incentive to create puppet regimes see Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, et al.,
Logic of Political Survival
, especially chapter 9; and Carmela Lutmar, “Belligerent Occupations,” in
ISA Compendium of International Law,
Robert J. Beck and Henry F. Carey, eds. (Oxford: Blackwell, 2009).
For a more detailed and rigorous account of how our perspective explains the incentive to create puppet regimes see Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, et al.,
Logic of Political Survival
, especially chapter 9; and Carmela Lutmar, “Belligerent Occupations,” in
ISA Compendium of International Law,
Robert J. Beck and Henry F. Carey, eds. (Oxford: Blackwell, 2009).
10
See Michela Wrong,
I Didn't Do It for You: How the World Betrayed a Small African Nation
(New York: HarperCollins, 2005), 328.
See Michela Wrong,
I Didn't Do It for You: How the World Betrayed a Small African Nation
(New York: HarperCollins, 2005), 328.
11
Ibid., 351â353.
Ibid., 351â353.
12
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Randolph M. Siverson, “War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability,”
American Political Science Review
(December 1995); and Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph Siverson, and Gary Woller, “War and the Fate of Regimes: A Cross-National Analysis,”
American Political Science Review
(September 1992): 638â646.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Randolph M. Siverson, “War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability,”
American Political Science Review
(December 1995); and Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph Siverson, and Gary Woller, “War and the Fate of Regimes: A Cross-National Analysis,”
American Political Science Review
(September 1992): 638â646.
14
Quoted in David D. Laitin and Said S. Samatar,
Somalia: Nation in Search of a State
(Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1987).
Quoted in David D. Laitin and Said S. Samatar,
Somalia: Nation in Search of a State
(Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1987).
16
In fact there are numerous cases of violent conflicts between pairs of democracies in the Correlates of War Project's militarized disputes data. None become wars because while one side used force, the other side backed down rather than fight back.
In fact there are numerous cases of violent conflicts between pairs of democracies in the Correlates of War Project's militarized disputes data. None become wars because while one side used force, the other side backed down rather than fight back.
17
See Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam,
Democracies at War
(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002).
Chapter 10: What Is To Be Done?See Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam,
Democracies at War
(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002).
1
NFL Fan Support Ranking,
http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/slideshow/13.html?page=4
; Brand Keys, Sports Loyalty Index,
http://www.brandkeys.com/awards/sports.cfm
; Sports Illustrated,
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/rick_reilly/10/09/reilly1015/index.html
;
http://www.packers.com/team/executive-committee.html
.
NFL Fan Support Ranking,
http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/slideshow/13.html?page=4
; Brand Keys, Sports Loyalty Index,
http://www.brandkeys.com/awards/sports.cfm
; Sports Illustrated,
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/rick_reilly/10/09/reilly1015/index.html
;
http://www.packers.com/team/executive-committee.html
.
2
Robert Romano, “The Sarbanes-Oxley Act and the Making of Quack Corporate Governance,”
Yale Law Journal
114 (May 2005): 1521â1611.
Robert Romano, “The Sarbanes-Oxley Act and the Making of Quack Corporate Governance,”
Yale Law Journal
114 (May 2005): 1521â1611.
3
Jeffrey L. Jensen “Initial Institutions, Institutional Persistence, and the Promotion of Economic Development by the Original 13 States,” Working Paper, NYU Department of Politics, 2007.
Jeffrey L. Jensen “Initial Institutions, Institutional Persistence, and the Promotion of Economic Development by the Original 13 States,” Working Paper, NYU Department of Politics, 2007.
5
Congressional Research Service, “The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11,” Amy Belasco, September 2, 2010,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL33110.pdf
.
Congressional Research Service, “The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11,” Amy Belasco, September 2, 2010,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL33110.pdf
.
Index
Abdel-Hussein, Muhyi
Abortion
Accountability.
See also
Transparency
See also
Transparency
Adamishin, Anatoly
Adams, John Quincy
Adamu, Amos
Advisers
Afabet, Battle of
Afghanistan
Africa
Horn of Africa
See also
North Africa; South Africa;
individual countries
North Africa; South Africa;
individual countries
Agramonte, Robert
Agriculture
agricultural marketing boards
See also
Farmers
Farmers
Aideed, Mohamed Farrah
Airports
Albright, Madeleine
Algeria
Al-Jazeera
Allende, Salvador
Al Qaeda
Alzheimer's disease
Amin, Idi,
Amnesty
Angola
Apostles
Aquino, Benigno, Jr.
Aquino, Corazon
Arafat, Yasser
Arbenz, Jacobo
Argentina
Aristocracy
Aristotle
Artiga, Luis
Assad, Hafez al-
Assassinations.
See also
Executions
See also
Executions
Aswan Dam
Atim, Chris
Atlanta Olympics
Atlee, Clement
Atrocities.
See also
Massacres
See also
Massacres
Augustus (emperor)
Aung San Suu Kyi
Australia
Austria
Autocrats/autocracies
autocrats' initial period in office (
see also
Leaders: new)
see also
Leaders: new)
and borrowing
protest in autocracies
universities as autocracies
and wars(
see also
Wars)
see also
Wars)
See also
Dictatorships; Leaders; Winning coalitions: small
Dictatorships; Leaders; Winning coalitions: small
Aziz, Tariq
Ba'ath Party
Babies.
See also
Infant/child mortality
See also
Infant/child mortality
Bahrain
Bailouts
Balance of power
Bam, Iran
Bangladesh
Ban Ki-Moon
Bankruptcy
Banks
Barre, Siad
Bashir, Omar al-
Basil (emperor)
Bates, Robert
Batista, Fulgencio
BBC
Belarus
Belgium
Bell, California
Ben Ali, Zine el-Abidine
Ben Bella, Ahmed
Benin
Bevilaqua, John
Bhutan
Bhutto family
Bible
Bill of Rights
Bin Laden, Osama
Bishop of Rome
Black Hawk Down
(film)
(film)
Black marketeering
Blatter, Sepp
Boahen, Adu
Bolivia
Bolsheviks
Bonuses
Bonyads
Booth capture
Borrowing.
See also
Debt
See also
Debt
Bosch, Juan
Botha, Pik
Botswana
Boumediène, Houari
BP.
See
British Petroleum
See
British Petroleum
Bribery.
See also
Corruption
See also
Corruption
Britain
debt of
Olympic games in
British Petroleum (BP)
Brown, Jerry
Budgets.
See also
Government spending
See also
Government spending
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce
Building codes
Burkina Faso
Burma.
See
Myanmar
See
Myanmar
Burundi
Bush, George H. W.
Bush, George W.
Buying countries' policies
Byzantine Empire
Cabinets
California
Caliphate
Calvino, Italo
Cambodia
Cameron, David
Cameroon
Canada
Vancouver Olympic games
Cancer
CAP.
See
Common Agricultural Policy
See
Common Agricultural Policy
Capital-intensive vs. labor-intensive products
Carter, Jimmy
Carter Center
Cartwheels company
Castellano, “Big” Paul
Castro, Fidel
Castro, Raul
Catherine the Great
Catholic Church
Cattle
CCM.
See
Chama Cha Mapinduzi party in Tanzania
See
Chama Cha Mapinduzi party in Tanzania
Cedi currency
Cell phones
CEOs.
See also
Corporations
See also
Corporations
Chad
Chama Cha Mapinduzi party (CCM) in Tanzania
Change.
See also
Reforms
See also
Reforms
Charity Navigator
Chavez, Hugo
Chazan, Naomi
Checks and balances.
See also
Separation of powers
See also
Separation of powers
Chemical Ali
Chernositov (Russian police chief)
Chicago
Children.
See also
Infant/child mortality
See also
Infant/child mortality
Chile
Chiang Kai Shek
China
Beijing summer games
earthquakes in Qinghai and Sichuan
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