Asia's Cauldron (32 page)

  
1.
 Lyle Goldstein, “Chinese Naval Strategy in the South China Sea: An Abundance of Noise and Smoke, but Little Fire,”
Contemporary Southeast Asia
, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 2011.

  
2.
 Jonathan Holslag, “Seas of Troubles: China and the New Contest for the Western Pacific,” Institute of Contemporary China Studies, Brussels, 2011.

  
3.
 David C. Kang,
East Asia Before the West: Five Centuries of Trade and Tribute
, Columbia University Press, New York, 2010, pp. 2, 4, 8, 10, 11.

  
4.
 Gideon Rachman, “Political Crises or Civil War Will Not Stop China,”
Financial Times
, London, March 20, 2012.

  
5.
 Mark C. Elliott,
Emperor Qianlong: Son of Heaven, Man of the World
, Longman, New York, 2009, p. 126.

  
6.
 Aristotle,
The Politics
, trans. Carnes Lord, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1984, p. 153.

  
7.
 Kenneth N. Waltz,
Realism and International Politics
, Routledge, New York, 2008, pp. 59, 152, 200.

  
8.
 Harvey Mansfield and Nathan Tarcov, Introduction to Machiavelli's
Discourses on Livy
, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1996.

  
9.
 Paul Kennedy, “The Pivot of History: The U.S. Needs to Blend Democratic Ideals with Geopolitical Wisdom,”
The Guardian
, London, June 19, 2004.

10.
 “East Asia and Pacific Economic Update (2010),” World Bank, Washington, D.C.

11.
 Clive Schofield and Ian Storey, “The South China Sea Dispute: Increasing Stakes and Rising Tensions,” Jamestown Foundation, Washington, D.C., November 2009.

12.
 John C. Baker and David G. Wiencek, “Cooperative Monitoring in the South China Sea: Satellite Imagery, Confidence-Building Measures, and the Spratly Islands Dispute,” Praeger, Westport, Connecticut, 2002.

13.
 Nick A. Owen and Clive H. Schofield, “Disputed South China Sea Hydrocarbons in Perspective,”
Marine Policy
36 (3), May 2011.

14.
 Ian Storey, “China's Diplomatic Engagement in the South China Sea,” Institute of Southeast Asia Studies, Singapore, 2011.

15.
 M. Taylor Fravel, “Maritime Security in the South China Sea and the Competition over Maritime Rights,” Center for a New American Security, Washington, D.C., 2012.

16.
 Peter A. Dutton, “Cracks in the Global Foundation: International Law and Instability in the South China Sea,” Center for a New American Security, Washington, D.C., 2012.

17.
 Hillary Clinton, “Asia's Pacific Century,”
Foreign Policy
, Washington, D.C., September/October 2011.

18.
 Aristotle,
The Politics
, p. 114.

19.
 Stanley A. Weiss, “Imagining ‘Eastphalia,' ”
Strategic Review
, Jakarta, January/March 2012.

20.
 Holslag, “Seas of Troubles.”

21.
 Jacques deLisle, “China's Claims and the South China Sea,”
Orbis
, Philadelphia, Fall 2012.

22.
 Robert Kagan,
The World America Made
, Alfred A. Knopf, New York, 2012.

23.
 Jonathan Holslag,
Trapped Giant: China's Military Rise
, Routledge
Journals, Oxfordshire, 2011, pp. 31–35, 44–45, 48. Holslag's sources include the following: Park Sung-hyea and Peter Chu, “Thermal and Haline Fronts in the Yellow/East China Sea,”
Journal of Oceanography
(62); and Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and William S. Murray, “Chinese Mine Warfare,”
China Maritime Study
, U.S. Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island, June 2009.

24.
 “China Enhances Its Maritime Capabilities,”
www.Stratfor.com
, Austin, Texas, May 12, 2012.

25.
 Holslag,
Trapped Giant
, p. 56.

26.
 Ibid., p. 64, map and commentary.

27.
 John J. Mearsheimer,
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics
, W. W. Norton, New York, 2001, p. 401.

28.
 M. Taylor Fravel, discussion on the South China Sea, Center for a New American Security, Washington, D.C., 2011.

29.
 Robert B. Strassler,
The Landmark Thucydides: A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War
, Free Press, New York, 1996, p. 16.

30.
 James Kurth, “Confronting a Powerful China with Western Characteristics,”
Orbis
, Philadelphia, Winter 2012.

31.
 Michael Auslin, “Security in the Indo-Pacific Commons: Towards a Regional Strategy,” American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C., December 2010.

32.
 Sumit Ganguly and Manjeet S. Pardesi, “Can China and India Rise Peacefully?,”
Orbis
, Philadelphia, Summer 2012.

33.
 Hugh White,
The China Choice: Why America Should Share Power
, Black, Inc., Collingwood, Australia, 2012, p. 71.

  
1.
 Nigel Barley,
White Rajah: A Biography of Sir James Brooke
, Little, Brown, London, 2002; S. Baring-Gould and C. A. Bampflyde,
A History of Sarawak: Under Its Two White Rajahs, 1839–1908
, Synergy, Kuala Lumpur, (1909) 2007.

  
2.
 I write about Indonesia at length in
Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power
, Random House, New York, 2010, Chapter 13.

Asia's Cauldron: The South China Sea
and the End of a Stable Pacific

The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About
Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate

Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power

Hog Pilots, Blue Water Grunts: The American Military
in the Air, at Sea, and on the Ground

Imperial Grunts: On the Ground with the American Military
,
from Mongolia to the Philippines to Iraq and Beyond

Mediterranean Winter: The Pleasures of History and
Landscape in Tunisia, Sicily, Dalmatia, and Greece

Warrior Politics: Why Leadership Demands a Pagan Ethos

Eastward to Tartary: Travels in the Balkans
,
the Middle East, and the Caucasus

The Coming Anarchy: Shattering the Dreams of the Post Cold War

An Empire Wilderness: Travels into America's Future

The Ends of the Earth: From Togo to Turkmenistan
,
from Iraq to Cambodia, a Journey to the Frontiers of Anarchy

The Arabists: The Romance of an American Elite

Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History

Soldiers of God: With Islamic Warriors
in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Surrender or Starve: Travels in Ethiopia
,
Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea

www.RobertDKaplan.com

www.Stratfor.com