Bad Science (29 page)

over fifty billion:
www.nutraingredientsusa.com/news/ng.asp?n=85087
.

One was in Finland: Alpha-Tocopherol Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study Group. The effect of vitamin E and beta-carotene on the incidence of lung and other cancers in male smokers.
NEJM
330 (1994): 1029–35.

Two groups of people: Thornquist, M. D.; Omenn, G. S.; Goodman, G. E.; Grizzle, J. E.; Rosenstock, L.; Barnhart, S.; Anderson, G. L.; Hammar, S.; Balmes, J.; Cherniack, M. Statistical design and monitoring of the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET).
Control Clin Trials
14 (1993): 308–24; Omenn, G. S.; Goodman, G. E.; Thornquist, M. D.; Balmes, J.; Cullen, M. R.; Glass, A., et al. Effects of a combination of beta-carotene and vitamin A on lung cancer and cardiovascular disease.
N Engl J Med
334 (1996): 1150–55; jnci.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/ijlink?linkType=ABST&journalCode=nejm&resid=334/18/1150].

The most up-to-date Cochrane: Vivekananthan, D. P., et al. Use of antioxidant vitamins for the prevention of cardiovascular disease: meta-analysis of randomized trials.
Lancet
361 (2003): 2017–23;
www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140673603136379/abstract
.

The Cochrane review: Caraballoso, M.; Sacristan, M.; Serra, C.; Bonfill, X. Drugs for preventing lung cancer in healthy people.
Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews
2 (2003).

a Cochrane review: Bjelakovic, G.; Nikolova, D.; Gluud, L. L.; Simonetti, R. G.; Gluud, C. Antioxidant supplements for prevention of mortality in healthy participants and patients with various diseases.
Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews
2 (2008).

Dr. Benjamin Spock: Chalmers, I. Invalid health information is potentially lethal.
BMJ
322, no. 7292 (2001): 998.

price-fixing cartel: Kluwer, John M. Connor,
Global Price-fixing: Our Customers Are the Enemy
, (New York: Springer, 2001); available online, books.google.co.uk/books?id=7M8n4UN23WsC.

“Doubt is our product”: Michaels David, ed.,
Doubt Is Their Product: How Industry’s Assault on Science Threatens Your Health
(New York: Oxford University Press, 2008).

7. Nutritionists

Dudley J. LeBlanc: Anderson, Ann,
Snake Oil, Hustlers and Hambones: The American Medicine Show
(Jefferson, N.C.: McFarland, 2005).

“During the war”: Commencement Speech from Caltech 1974, also in Richard Feynman, Richard,
Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman!: Adventures of a Curious Character
. (New York: W. W. Norton, 1985).

Clayton College of Natural Health website:
www.ccnh.edu/about/programs/tuition.aspx
.

8. The Doctor will Sue you now

One study estimates: Nattrass, N. Estimating the lost benefits of antiretroviral drug use in South Africa.
African Affairs
107, no. 427 (2008): 157–76.

Another study: Chigwedere, P.; Seage, G. R.; Gruskin, S.; Lee, T. H.; Essex, M. Estimating the lost benefits of antiretroviral drug use in South Africa.
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
49, no. 4 (December 1, 2008): 410–15.

“gave a presentation”:
www.villagevoice.com/2000-0704/news/debating-the-obvious
.

9. Is Mainstream Medicine Evil?

From the state of current knowledge: clinicalevidence.bmj.com/ceweb/about/knowledge.jsp.

These real-world studies: The classic general medicine reference for this is Ellis, J.; Mulligan, I.; Rowe, J.; Sackett, D. L. Inpatient general medicine is evidence based. A-Team, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine.
Lancet
346, no. 8972 (August 12, 1995): 407–10. There have been numerous copy-cat studies in various specialties, and rather than list them here, an excellent review of them is maintained at
www.shef.ac.uk/scharr/ir/percent.html
.

all those studies: Mayor, S. Audit identifies the most read BMJ research papers.
BMJ
334 (2007): 554–55; Hippisley-Cox, J., and Coupland, C. Risk of myocardial infarction in patients taking cyclo-oxygenase-2 inhibitors or conventional nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs: population based nested case-control analysis.
BMJ
330 (2005): 1366; Gunnell, J.; Saperia, J.; Ashby, D. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and suicide in adults: meta-analysis of drug company data from placebo controlled, randomized controlled trials submitted to the MHRA’s safety review.
BMJ
330 (2005): 385; Fergusson, D., et al. Association between suicide attempts and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors: systematic review of randomized controlled trials.
BMJ
330 (2005): 396.

annual spend on promotion: Hollon, M. F. Direct-to-consumer advertising: a haphazard approach to health promotion.
JAMA
293, no. 16 (April 27, 2005): 2030–33. doi:10.1001/jama.293.16.2030.jama.ama-assn.org.

whole areas can be orphaned: Iribarne, A. Orphan diseases and adoptive initiatives.
JAMA
290 (2003): 116; Francisco, A. Drug development for neglected diseases.
Lancet
360 (2002): 1102.

If you follow the references: Safer, D. J. Design and reporting modifications in industry-sponsored comparative psychopharmacology trials.
J Nerv Ment Dis
190 (2002): 583–92.

various studies have shown: Modell et al. (1997); Montejo-Gonzalez et al. (1997); Zajecka et al. (1999); Preskorn (1997): in Safer, ibid.

If the difference: Pocock, S. J. When (not) to stop a clinical trial for benefit.
JAMA
, 294 (2005): 2228–30.

a systematic review: Lexchin, J.; Bero, L. A.; Djulbegovic, B.; Clark, O. Pharmaceutical industry sponsorship and research outcome and quality.
BMJ
326 (2003): 1167–70.

One review of bias: Rochon, P. A.; Gurwitz, J. H.; Simms, R. W.; Fortin, P. R.; Felson, D. T.; Minaker, K. L.; Chalmers, T. C. A study of manufacturer-supported trials of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in the treatment of arthritis.
Arch Intern Med
. 154, no. 2 (January 24, 1994): 157–63.

when the methodological flaws: Lexchin, J.; Bero, L. A.; Djulbegovic, B.; Clark, O. Pharmaceutical industry sponsorship and research outcome and quality: systematic review.
BMJ
326, no. 7400 (May 31, 2003): 1167–70.

In 1995, only: Schmidt, K.; Pittler, M. H.; Ernst, E. Bias in alternative medicine is still rife but is diminishing.
BMJ
323, no. 7320 (November 3, 2001): 1071.

A review in 1998: Vickers, A.; Goyal, N.; Harland, R.; Rees, R. Do certain countries produce only positive results? A systematic review of controlled trials.
Control Clin Trials
19, no. 2 (April 1998): 159–66.

a paper has even found: Dubben, H., and Beck-Bornholdt, H. Systematic review of publication bias in studies on publication bias.
BMJ
331 (2005): 433–34.

published a paper: Turner, E. H.; Matthews, A. M.; Linardatos, E.; Tell, R. A.; Rosenthal, R. Selective publication of antidepressant trials and its influence on apparent efficacy.
N Eng J Med
358, no. 3 (January 17, 2008): 252–60.

A classic piece of detective work: Tramer, M. R.; Reynolds, D.J.M.; Moore, R. A.; McQuay, H. J. Impact of covert duplicate publication on meta-analysis: a case study.
BMJ
315 (1997): 635–40.

“When we carried out”: Cowley, A. J. et al.
Int Journ Card
40 (1993): 161–66.

the three highest-ranking papers: Audit identifies the most read BMJ research papers.
BMJ
334 (March 17, 2007): 554–55.

“It is a shame”: Scolnick, E. M. E-mail communication to Deborah Shapiro, Alise Reicin, and Alan Nies re: VIGOR. March 9, 2000;
www.vioxxdocuments.com/Documents/Krumholz_Vioxx/Scolnick2000.pdf
.

The New England Journal of Medicine
: Curfman, G. D.; Morrissey, S.; Drazen, J. M. Expression of concern reaffirmed.
NEJM
354 no. 11 (March 16, 2006): 1193.

a U.S. company: Gottlieb, S. Firm tried to block report on failure of AIDS vaccine.
BMJ
321 (2000): 1173.

The drug company: Nathan, D., and Weatherall, D. Academia and industry: lessons from the unfortunate events in Toronto.
Lancet
353, no. 9155 (March 6, 1996): 771–72.

These ads have been: Gilbody, S. et al. Benefits and harms of direct to consumer advertising: a systematic review.
Qual Saf Health Care
14 (2005): 246–50, qshc.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/14/4/246.

10. Why Clever People Believe Stupid Things

a classic experiment: Gilovich, T.; Vallone, R.; Tversky, A. The hot hand in basketball: on the misperception of random sequences.
Cog Psych
17 (1985): 295–314.

ingeniously pared-down experiment: Schaffner, P. E. Specious learning about reward and punishment.
J Pers Soc Psych
48, no. 6 (June 1985): 1377–86.

In one experiment: Snyder, M., and Cantor, N. Testing hypotheses about other people: the use of historical knowledge,
J Exp Soc Psych
15 (1979): 330–42.

The classic demonstration: Lord, C. G.; Ross, L.; Lepper, M. R. Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: the effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence.
J Pers Soc Psych
37 (1979): 2098–109.

In one, subjects: Tversky, A., and Kahneman, D. Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability.
Cog Psych
5 (1973): 207–32.

Asch’s experiments: Asch, S. E. Opinions and social pressure.
Sci Am
193 (1955): 31–35.

the behavior of sporting teams: Frank, M. G., and Gilovich, T. The dark side of self- and social-perception: black uniforms and aggression in professional sports.
J Pers Soc Psych
54, no. 1 (January 1988): 74–85.

It’s not safe: The experiments in this chapter, and many more, can be found in
Irrationality
by Stuart Sutherland and
How We Know What Isn’t So
by Thomas Gilovich.

11. Bad Stats

Let’s say the risk: Gigerenzer, G.,
Reckoning with Risk
(New York: Penguin, 2003), p. 257.

Natural frequencies: Butterworth, B. et al. Statistics: what seems natural?
Science
(May 4, 2001): 853.

The other methods: Hoffrage, U.; Lindsey, S.; Hertwig, R.; Gigerenzer, G. Communicating statistical information.
Science
290, no. 5500 (December 22, 2000): 2261–62.

there are studies: Hoffrage, U., and Gigerenzer, G. Using natural frequencies to improve diagnostic inferences.
Acad Med
73, (1998): 538–40.

the same test: Gigerenzer, G.
Adaptive Thinking: Rationality in the Real World
. Oxford University Press: 2000, p. 219.

Let’s think about: Szmukler, G. Risk assessment: “numbers” and “values.”
Psych Bull
27 (2003): 205–207.

a small collection:
www.qurl.com/lucia
.