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Authors: David Keys

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BOOK: Catastrophe: An Investigation Into the Origins of the Modern World
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CHAPTER 28
 
  1. Archaeologists are divided as to the nature of the Huari state. Some see it as an empire, or, at the very least, a state exercising political control over a wider area beyond its borders. Others see it as a significant, but smaller, polity that exercised cultural and probably some political influence over that same wider territory.
 
CHAPTER 29
 
  1. This was its name before the Inca conquest, according to a Spanish cleric, Bernabe Cobo, writing in 1653. Although it means “stone in the center” in the local Aymara language, it is obviously not possible to know for sure what the Tiwanakans themselves called the city because, first, there are no written records and second, it is not known whether they spoke Aymara. The “stone in the center” concept is discussed by Mexican archaeologist Linda Manzanilla in
    Akapana: Una Piramide en el Centro del Mundo,
    UNAM, Mexico, 1992.
  2. San Pedro de Atacama in Chile in c.
    A
    .
    D
    . 300 and Nino Corin on the eastern slopes of the Andes in the Bolivian province of Charasani in c. 375, according to
    Ethnological Studies
    32, Gothenburg, Sweden, 1972.
  3. These features are described by Mexican archaeologist Linda Manzanilla in
    Akapana: Una Piramide en el Centro del Mundo,
    and by Alan Kolata in his book,
    Tiwanaku: Portrait of an Andean Civilization.
  4. According to Alan Kolata,
    The Tiwanaku.
  5. Article by H. J. Carney et al. in
    Nature,
    364-6433, 1993, pages 131–133.
  6. D. D. Biesboer’s unpublished data are referred to in
    Quaternary Research,
    47, 1997, page 237; an article by D. D. Biesboer et al. in
    Bio Tropica,
    1998.
  7. Doctoral dissertation by Sanchez de Lozada, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, 1996.
  8. Alan Kolata,
    The Tiwanaku: Portrait of an Andean Civilization,
    page 185.
  9. Kolata,
    The Tiwanaku,
    page 187.
  10. Kolata,
    The Tiwanaku,
    page 194.
  11. Kolata,
    The Tiwanaku,
    pages 189–190.
  12. Known today as the Kalasasaya, it is the complex in which the famous great monolithic Gateway of the Sun and the impressive Ponce Stela statue are located.
  13. Suggested by Alan Kolata in
    The Tiwanaku.
  14. Kolata,
    The Tiwanaku.
  15. The valleys of the Tambo, Moquegua, Lucumba, Sama, Caplina, Azapa, Lluta, Camarones, and Loa.
  16. Doctoral dissertation by Martin Giesso, University of Chicago, 1999.
  17. Fitzroya conifers.
 
CHAPTER 30
 
  1. Text of John of Ephesus as recorded in the
    Chronicle of Michael the Syrian,
    9, 296, translated by Chabot and quoted in an article titled “Volcanic Eruptions in the Mediterranean Before
    A
    .
    D
    . 630 from Written and Archaeological Sources,” by R. B. Stothers and M. R. Rampino,
    Journal of Geophysical Research
    88, 1983, pages 6357–6371.
  2. Procopius,
    Wars, Loeb Classical Library, Harvard,
    4, 14.5 (H. B. Dewing).
  3. All the figures in this chapter pertaining to asteroids and comets were calculated specially for this book by the astronomer Alan Fitzsimmons of Queen’s University, Belfast.
  4. Because of their irregular shape, the half-mile measurement refers to the notional diameter of a spherical object with the same mass and density.
  5. The data from this ice-core operation—the Byrd core—is published in “50,000 Years of Recorded Global Volcanism,” by C. U. Hammer, H. B. Clausen, and C. C. Langway, in the journal
    Climatic Change,
    volume 35, 1997.
  6. Although a volcanic eruption (or possibly two eruptions) almost certainly triggered the climatic problems of the mid–sixth century, tree-ring and ice-core evidence suggest that there were additional background reasons that made the crisis worse and longer lasting. First, the 535 volcanic event occurred during a longer cold period—at least as far as Northern Hemisphere high latitudes were concerned. Tree-ring evidence from Scandinavia and Russia suggests that at least in these higher latitudes it occurred during the second longest cold spell of the past 2,000 years. Thus the 535 volcanic event seems to have pushed a poor climatic situation into becoming a disastrous one. But not only did a volcanic event transform a potentially normal cold period into a climatic catastrophe, it may also have helped create or at least lengthen the cold spell itself. It is perhaps significant that the two longest-lasting Northern Hemisphere high-latitude cold periods of the past 2,000 years contain within them two of the three most volcanically active periods of the past two millennia. Indeed, the sixth century is the only period of the past 2,000 years for which the GRIP and Dye 3 Greenland ice cores
    both
    display evidence for record numbers of volcanic eruptions. The GRIP core for the sixth century records four eruptions (yielding 5.8 years’ worth of high volcanic acid precipitation). The nearest rival in that core in terms of the number of volcanic events is the seventeenth century with 5.6 years of high acid precipitation. In the Dye 3 core there are five volcanic acid precipitation events (totaling 6.5 years of high acid precipitation). The nearest rival to that, in terms of number of events in that core, is in the fifteenth century (totaling 5.9 years’ worth of high acid precipitation). The ice-core information above is derived from data published in an article by H. Clausen et al. in the
    Journal of
    Geophysical Research,
    volume 102, no. C12, 1997, pages 26,707–26,723.
 
CHAPTER 31
 
  1. This manuscript is housed in the Sasana Pustaka Library of the Karaton (Royal Palace) in Surakarta (central Java). The passages quoted in the last few paragraphs were translated from the Javanese into English for this book by an American scholar of Javanese literature, Nancy Florida of the University of Michigan.
  2. Translated from the Javanese original by a Dutchman, Mr. C. Baumgarten of Batavia (modern Jakarta), whose account was then quoted in a letter written by Professor Judd of the London-based Royal Society to the scientific journal
    Nature
    and published in that journal on 15 August 1889.
  3. The name Ranggawarsita, loosely translated, means “teacher of senior courtly rank.” He lived from 1802 to 1873.
  4. Information derived from discussions with volcanologist Ken Wohletz of the University of California, Los Alamos National Laboratory.
 
CHAPTER 32
 
  1. See page 366 and note below.
  2. The remains of just such a massive pyroclastic flow at Krakatoa were examined in early 1999 by the Icelandic volcanologist Professor Haraldur Sigurdsson of the University of Rhode Island. His expedition there was financed by U.K. broadcaster Channel 4 Television in order to gather evidence for the Channel 4 documentary on this book (first broadcast in the U.K. July 27 and August 3, 1999). The calibrated C14 dates and stratigraphic evidence obtained during that expedition combine to suggest a first millenium
    A
    .
    D
    . date for the eruption that produced that pyroclastic flow. The C14 dates (
    A
    .
    D
    . 1215–1300 and 6600
    B
    .
    C
    . respectively) were obtained from charcoal samples from (a) the strata immediately above and (b) the fifth strata beneath the remains of the pyroclastic flow. Although theoretically this could date the flow at anything betwen 6600
    B
    .
    C
    . and
    A
    .
    D
    . 1300, the stratigraphy (i.e., the five stratae beneath the event) strongly suggests a date much nearer to the thirteenth-century
    A
    .
    D
    . than to 6600
    B
    .
    C
    . The
    A
    .
    D
    . 1–1200 period is probably the most likely time frame during which this eruption of Krakatoa took place, even if one only takes the C14 and stratigraphic evidence into account. This new data is therefore consistent with the historical and other evidence.
  3. Up until now, most geologists have assumed that the seaway between Java and Sumatra, the Sunda Straits, had been formed exclusively by tectonic action—i.e, by very gradual changes in land level over millions of years. However, research for this book carried out by volcanologist Alain Gourgaud of the University of Blaise Pascal, Clermont Ferrand, France, has revealed that it is at least theoretically possible that the straits were fully or partially created by a massive volcanic caldera collapse. Mr. Gourgaud, who has studied the remnants of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption in the field and the underwater (bathemetric) charts of the straits, has concluded that there have been massive caldera collapses there in the past. He proposes three possible sites in the straits for ancient calderas, with approximate diameters of around 35 miles, 20 miles, and 30 miles, respectively.
 
CHAPTER 34
 
  1. Centered in Pozzuoli near Naples.
  2. Quite apart from the massive eruptions that will most certainly occur at some stage in the future at each of these locations, smaller eruptions will also take place—but much more frequently.
  3. The latter calibrated age is derived from a new series of high-precision dates obtained from radiocarbon tests carried out at Queen’s University, Belfast, but not yet published.
  4. Includes repeat attempts.
  5. In its recent publication,
    World Disasters Report 1999,
    the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies suggests that current climate change may be responsible for an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. Global warming may now be “responsible for harsher and more frequent El Niño/La Niña phenomena” and for “more hurricanes, more droughts and more floods,” says the report.
        “While climate change is regarded as a gradual phenomenon, it will largely manifest itself in the changing frequency of extreme meteorological events—unexpected droughts and floods, record heat waves and snowstorms—that will trigger human disasters.”
        The report suggests that El Niños have become “more intense and frequent in the past twenty years” and that there is “some evidence to suggest that this may be a consequence” of current climate change.
        The sixth-century data (see pages 218–219 of this book) certainly confirms that acute climate change seems to trigger increased El Niño frequency.
        El Niños and other extreme weather events have been affecting much of the world.
        The year 1998 was a record year for recorded climate disasters. Nine typhoons killed 500 and affected 5 million in the Philippines, floods killed 4,150 and affected 180 million people in China; killed 400 and affected almost 200,000 in Korea; killed 1,000 and affected 25,000 in Pakistan; killed 1,400 and affected almost 340,000 in India; killed 25 and affected 12,000 in Romania; killed 55 and affected 11,000 in Slovakia; killed 20 and affected 360,000 in Argentina. Monsoon rains and tropical cyclones killed 1,300 and affected 31 million in Bangladesh (140,000 had died just seven years earlier). An exceptionally heavy monsoon killed 3,250 and affected 36 million in northern India and Nepal; and two hurricanes killed a total of 14,000 and affected around 7 million people in the Caribbean and Central American region. In late 1997 and 1998, floods made 500,000 people homeless in Peru. Ecuador was also severely hit. Droughts triggered by El Niño caused huge forest fires in Brazil (37,000 square kilometers destroyed), Peru, Florida, Sardinia, Indonesia, China, Kazakhstan, and Australia. Five million hectares burned in Borneo and Sumatra. Air pollution worsened dramatically—and 40,000 Indonesians had to be treated at hospitals for smoke inhalation, says the Red Cross. Overall, 70,000 people were affected. In Tibet hundreds froze to death in the worst snowstorm for half a century. Economic losses due to climate disasters in 1998 were also massive—$16 billion in Central America/Caribbean, $2.5 billion in Argentina, $868 million in Korea, $223 million in Bangladesh, and $150 million in Romania.
        Climatic change also triggers disease outbreaks. The Red Cross report says that current climate change is “already extending the range of infectious tropical diseases such as river blindness, malaria, schistosomiasis, dengue and yellow fevers to areas where they are not currently endemic and where the local population has no immunity.”
        By 2100, 60 percent of the world’s population will be living in potential malaria zones, according to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
        Current climatic change, involving hotter and longer heat waves, is massively increasing death rates from heart and lung disease.
        Air pollution and mold spore and pollen problems will all get worse. Predictions by Paul Epstein of the Harvard Medical School (referred to in
    World
    Disasters Report 1999
    ) suggest that total heat-related deaths worldwide are likely to double by 2020.
        Other diseases that are likely to spread more rapidly as a result of current climate change include encephalitis (which spread to New York in summer 1999), leishmaniasis, Lyme disease, and rickettsiosis (boutonnense fever). These last three illnesses are spread by mosquitoes, sand flies, and dog fleas respectively.
        El Niño–triggered medical problems have hit both South America and Asia.
        In Peru’s Piura region, malaria contraction rates trebled in 1997/1998 with 30,000 people becoming ill. At the same time 10 percent of Peru’s medical infrastructure was adversely affected by the El Niño storms themselves. The Red Cross report says that in Bolivia “cholera reportedly broke out near La Paz, Cochabamba, and Oruro,” and that in Ecuador “outbreaks of leptospirosis and cholera were reported near the southern city of Guayaquil.”
        Climate change is also likely to cause diseases to jump species. Already, in early 1998, when northeast Kenya was hit by unusually heavy rains, a cattle condition called Rift Valley fever spread to humans and killed over 1,000 people.
        The IPCC says that climate change “could create a serious [financial] burden for developing countries.”
        However, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies says that it’s just as likely that “countries will fail to adapt and will pay the price in increasing numbers of ‘natural’ disasters.”
        Just as coastal areas are likely to experience greater extreme rainfall events, so continental interiors are likely to experience more droughts. “As some nations succumb to rising waters, others will become parched and increasingly at risk from catastrophic drought and famine,” says the Red Cross report.
        “Current climate change will cause the hot deserts of continental interiors to expand as evaporation rates increase,” it says. Central Africa; South, Southeast, and East Asia; and Latin America will be most affected. Some rivers will run dry or be substantially reduced in size. According to the Red Cross report (quoting the
    Journal of Geophysical Research
    ), the Indus will loose 43 percent of its volume, the Niger 31 percent, and the Nile 11 percent. At some stage there will be a significant danger of military conflicts over water resources.
        “There is little doubt that climatic change is a major contributory factor in making natural disasters nightly television news. The rising incidence and increased severity of windstorms, fires, and floods seems to have its roots in disrupted weather patterns,” says the United Nations Environment Programme (
    Global Environmental Outlook 2000,
    September 1999).
        Of course, current climate change is also causing sea-level rise (a particular problem that did not occur in the sixth century).
        Coastal zones make up a tiny percentage of the Earth’s land surface—but three-quarters of the world’s population live in them (i.e., around 4.5 billion people). Coastal populations are increasing at twice the global average. The tides have risen 20 centimeters over the past century. Three million people are now made homeless by flooding every year. Ten million people live under constant threat of flood. Forty-six million are threatened by storm surges. By 2080, sea levels will have risen by at least a further 44 centimeters. Indeed, it could easily be a meter or more. Rising sea levels threaten many of the world’s largest and most famous cities: Tokyo, Osaka, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Lagos, Alexandria, Recife, Jakarta, Sydney, Bangkok, Saint Petersburg, Hamburg, and Venice.
        Nobody actually knows how high sea levels will rise or indeed how quickly. A total meltdown of polar ice, though not the likeliest option, is certainly not an impossibility in the long term and would cause a worldwide sea level rise of 70 meters. It should be remembered that, for at least 90 percent of its history, planet Earth has existed without polar ice caps. In the event of a total meltdown, much of the U.S. eastern seaboard would be inundated—including New York and Washington. Ten percent of South America would be under water. Also inundated would be much of Holland, Denmark, Pakistan, Bangladesh, northeast India, Egypt, Iraq, the Arabian gulf states, Thailand, Cambodia, and Burma as well as large areas of eastern England, Finland, Belgium, northern Germany, northern Poland, northern Italy, north central Siberia, eastern China, and southern Australia.
        Displacement of populations due to constant flooding and limited land loss—not to mention much greater territorial losses due to any total meltdown—would cause huge refugee flows and potential conflict.
        The sixth-century period of climatic chaos—the worst dose of global climate change of the past 2,000 years, gives us an indication as to the scale of political transformation that climate change and its epidemiological, demographic, and other consequences can trigger. This book is the only case study of a past global climatic catastrophe and the long-term political changes it engendered.
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