Ghosts of Havana (A Judd Ryker Novel) (6 page)

“Landon, relax,” Eisenberg said, with a casual familiarity that Judd found out of place for the State Department headquarters. “My next round of talks is supposed to set a timetable for free and fair elections and resolve the status of our naval base at Guantánamo Bay. Our Cuba legacy plan is right on track. It’s going better than we even could have ever hoped.”

Parker frowned and shook his head.

“Are you saying the Secretary isn’t happy?” Eisenberg asked. “I just had breakfast with her this morning and she didn’t say a thing.”

“It’s not the Secretary.”

“The White House?” Eisenberg’s face flushed. “Is the NSC meddling on Cuba again? Do I need to call Tony and rip him a new one?”

“No, it’s not them. It’s me. I’ve been in this job too long, I’ve seen too much, to believe it could be going so well. It’s unsettling, Mel.”

“You’re upset that Cuba’s too clean?” Eisenberg scoffed.

“Not upset. Wary. And that’s why I’ve asked Ryker here from S/CRU to join us. He’s been doing some fascinating work on big-data analytics for the department. He’s crunching numbers to try to anticipate problems before they happen. I thought Ryker could help us today to problem-solve on Cuba.”

“What problems, Landon?” Eisenberg ignored Judd. “We’re following the reengagement playbook that we all agreed on. You signed off on it. You just said it’s all going according to plan.”

“Our side is moving quickly. But Cuba’s not changing fast enough, Mel. I don’t see any signs of real democracy inside the country. Do you? The same geezers are still in charge. The police are still arresting activists. The intelligence services are still suppressing the opposition. The government isn’t even allowing American business to operate freely.”

“This all takes time, Landon. You knew that,” she said.

“Capitol Hill is getting impatient,” Parker said. “They’re complaining that we gave away the embassy exchange without any assurances of democratic change. Did you see Adelman-Zamora’s hearing this morning?”

“Of course I did,” Eisenberg said. “The Miami lobby is never going to be happy. You can’t get cold feet on me now, Landon.”

“Well, let me play devil’s advocate for a second, Mel. What if Adelman-Zamora . . . is right? What if we’re giving benefits to the Cubans and not getting much in return? Now that we’re locked in to normalization, what’s our leverage?”

“Now you sound like the Cold War dinosaurs we had to fight just to get where we are. Don’t tell me you’re working some other angle, Landon. Is there a Track Two strategy going on here that I need to know about?”

“No, Mel. There’s no second track. I’m just trying to help,” Parker said.

“We just need more time, Landon. We’re building trust with Havana, brick by brick.”

“I don’t know if we have much time. There are still too many people here in Washington and in Havana that want us to fail.
And every day that it takes is another opportunity for something to go drastically wrong.”

“What are you saying, Landon?”

“I’m saying that we’ve bet the Secretary’s whole legacy on Cuba’s transition to democracy. I know it all looks smooth on the surface, but I worry there’s trouble brewing. Isn’t that right, Ryker?”

“There are definite signs of economic strain,” Judd said. “I was just looking at the data this morning. Without support from Venezuela and Iran, Cuba’s hard currency reserves are at their lowest level since the fall of the Soviet Union. There are shortages of fuel and cooking oil in some parts of the country. We are even seeing wheat scarcities.”

“Wheat?” Eisenberg winced.

“Yes, prices for staple starches like wheat, corn, and rice are a leading indicator of political distress,” Judd explained. “And Cuban wheat stocks are at an all-time low.”

“That makes no sense. Why would wheat stocks be low?”

“No one knows,” Judd said. “It’s a puzzle.”

“See, Mel,” Parker said, “this is what I’m talking about. How are we securing a Cuba legacy for the Secretary if we don’t have a clue what’s going on inside the country? Are they really ready for normalization? Or are we walking into a trap?”

“Look, Landon,” Eisenberg said, taking a deep breath. “The Cubans are nervous about letting go. It’s understandable. Their system’s been stuck in a time warp for half a century. This was never going to be all smooth sailing. You knew that.”

“They still don’t trust us,” Parker said.

“Of course not,” she said. “That’s the whole point of our new strategy. To build confidence.”

“Mel, do we have any signs—I mean, actual evidence—that our carrots are encouraging Havana to move toward open markets and a free democracy?”

“It’s still a socialist country, Landon,” Eisenberg said. “The government provides free housing, free education, free health care. It’s taking time for them to open up to private enterprise.”

“I thought they agreed to allow private business in exchange for a reduction in our travel and trade sanctions. Wasn’t that the deal?”

“On paper, yes. But the government still owns all property and controls all wages. It’s one of the issues we’re working on.”

“Cuba still has a maximum wage,” Judd offered.

“A
maximum
wage?” Parker grimaced.

“Socialist.” Judd shrugged. “Just like Assistant Secretary Eisenberg said.”

“Christ,” Parker huffed. “What about the recent arrests? What’s the story with these police sweeps, Mel?”

“It’s to be expected. The diplomatic thaw with America has created high expectations among the Cuban public. They are expecting to see money pour into the country, to see life get better right away. It’s almost inevitable that progress would generate some backlash. The opposition is stirring people up, too. That probably explains the uptick in dissident chatter and the surge in police arrests. But most of the trouble has been in Santiago in the east. That part of the country has always been hostile to authority in Havana. That’s where El Jefe started his rebellion. And eastern Cuba is where the opposition is strongest.”

“When will we have a timetable for elections?”

“Soon.”

“What about clear succession for when El Comrade Presidente eventually dies?”

“Not yet.” She shook her head. “That’s all part of the next round of negotiations.”

“Is ECP even in control?” Parker asked.

“Yes,” she insisted. “We don’t see any credible challengers to him. Not from within the Party and not from the opposition.”

“What about military intelligence?”

“There are some hard-liners. But we believe they will stay loyal to ECP as long as progress continues,” she said.

“As long as progress continues,” Parker repeated. “That’s why I want Ryker here with us. His idea about Minute Zero just worked wonders in Zimbabwe. So, what about Cuba, Ryker? What do you think—”

“Excuse me,” Eisenberg interrupted. “Minute
what
?”

Judd sat up straight and quickly explained the idea. “The moment of chaos after a shock. That’s Minute Zero. That’s our window,” he said.

Parker winked at Eisenberg.

“I don’t understand,” she said, frowning. “We’re trying to make history by thawing relations with Cuba. We’re trying to keep things on track. You’re talking about disruption? About
creating chaos
?”

“Minute Zero is a theory of crisis response,” Judd said.

“Well, we don’t have time for ivory-tower academic theories here,” Eisenberg said. “We have to be practical.”

“Cool your jets, Mel,” Parker interjected. “Ryker knows all about the drivers of crises. And he’s applied his ideas to help us in Mali last year and just recently in Zimbabwe. I’m hoping he
can work his magic again and help us identify problems. To head off anything that could interfere with our Cuba policy.”

“So you’d like S/CRU to identify potential risks to our relations with Cuba?” Judd asked.

“The longer Melanie’s negotiations drag out, the more chances for something to go drastically wrong. What should we be most worried about? And how could we respond to the most likely problems? If the economy gets worse . . . If they get slammed by a hurricane . . . If El Comrade Presidente suddenly dies . . . I want to know how we can control events if things get crazy. Can you do that, Ryker?”

“Of course, Mr. Parker. I’ll get right on it.”

“How about
right now
? What do you think?”

“Right now?” Judd wriggled in his chair.

Parker nodded. “Start with the economy. What should we do?”

“Well . . . if the Cuban government is bankrupt and economic collapse is a possibility, why don’t we give them a large aid package? Or an emergency loan? That would calm the markets,” Judd suggested.

“No,” Eisenberg replied. “Congress has our Cuba budget on a tight leash and there’s no way we’d get approval to pay the government directly. What else you got?”

“What about injecting money directly into the economy?” Judd offered. “We wouldn’t need the government. We could stimulate the economy through the banks.”

“The Cubans still aren’t allowing American banks,” she said, shaking her head again. “Everything’s still done through the government or in cash.”

“Cash?”

“After the BesoPeso debacle, the Cubans are wary of
opening up the financial sector,” Eisenberg said. “That’s a dead end, too.”

“Ryker,” Parker turned to Judd. “BesoPeso was a secret CIA program to create an electronic currency to pay off opposition groups. Cuban military intelligence uncovered and blocked it. They’ve got a counter-destabilization team in Havana that’s still very powerful. They’ve beaten our guys across the river for years. Isn’t that right, Mel?”

“Yes, Landon. Cuban intelligence has been one step ahead of us. That’s why we are pushing the diplomatic solution. But injecting cash through the banks is out. Unless you want to drop dollar bills by helicopter, we’d need something else.”

Judd stared at the ceiling for a moment while he thought. Then he pulled a sheet of paper out of his briefcase and held up a chart displaying lines rising and falling in waves. “I’ve been analyzing Cuban price data. The black line is the black-market exchange rate for the Cuban peso on the streets in Santiago. It’s the true value of the local currency. The green line is an index of social media activity on the island that’s been coded as supportive of the underground opposition. Neither measure is perfect, but they are reasonable indicators of financial stress and political sentiment. What’s interesting is that they are highly correlated. When one moves, so does the other.”

“See why I invited him, Mel?” Parker smirked.

“This little chart tells us . . . what, exactly?” Eisenberg asked with a wince.

“The correlation suggests that even very small amounts of hard currency, deployed in the right places, could have large effects,” Judd explained. “It means that if we’re smart about it, we don’t need much cash to influence people in Cuba.”

“U.S. dollars equal political influence,” Parker said.

“In a place like Cuba, anyone controlling foreign currency is highly powerful,” Judd said. “We just need to use this leverage.”

“Money is power.” Eisenberg wasn’t impressed. “Big deal. Where isn’t that true?”

“But wait.” Parker paused for a moment. “I thought you just said we couldn’t send money to Cuba through the banks?”

“That’s right,” Eisenberg agreed.

“That actually
helps
us,” Judd said. “The Cuban government’s restrictions on banks and their control over foreign currency make U.S. dollars even scarcer.
Even more valuable.
”

“So cash can be a powerful weapon.” Parker nodded. Then he narrowed his eyes. “But how do we exploit this? What’s the
plan
, Ryker?”

“I don’t know yet, I’ve got to figure that out,” Judd said. “But if Cuba has a crisis, if the economy tanks or there’s a leadership vacuum, strategically deployed cash could be one of our strongest levers.”

“You’re suggesting we prepare for a massive campaign of bribery?” Eisenberg scowled.

“Not exactly,” Judd said. “You can’t just pay people off and then expect them to do your bidding. You’d need to sequence payments so your targets are always anticipating the next payout. Otherwise, they take the money and run. You pay, but you lose leverage.”

“That’s what we’ve been doing already,” Parker said. “Giving away concessions and not getting much in return.”

“Right. Immediate cash is never as powerful as the
next
payment. Any decent strategy must align these incentives.”

“Align incentives?” Melanie Eisenberg stood up to leave. “Are we still talking about Cuba policy, Landon?”

“We need to harness greed,” Judd said. “Individual greed can promote the common good. You see—”

“Is this another one of your theories, Dr. Ryker?” Eisenberg stood by the door, hands on her hips.

“It’s not my theory. It’s Adam Smith’s.”

“Adam Smith? The British economist who’s been dead for, what, two centuries?”

“Smith was more of a philosopher,” Judd said. “And Scottish. But, yes, him. He popularized the notion that individual motivations lead to collective good. It’s the foundation for capitalism.”

“In Cuba?” she growled, and turned to leave.

“Even communists respond to incentives,” Judd said.

“Melanie, wait,” Parker interrupted. “What are you saying, Ryker? How do these ideas help the United States in Cuba?”

“He’s saying that our Cuba plan should be to hope for a hurricane and then start handing out cash.” Eisenberg shook her head. “Hell of an idea, Landon, but I’ve got real work to do.”

“How about this.” Judd rubbed his hands together. “Imagine the Cuban leader died and in that same moment, when no one knows who or what comes next, we deployed suitcases of cash to the right people at the right time. We would control events. If we’re smart about it, we might even be able to pick the next leader of Cuba.”

“Now,
that
would be a legacy for the Secretary,” Parker said, nodding.

“I don’t understand why we’re even talking about this,” Eisenberg said. “ECP is healthy. We don’t kill foreign leaders, as far
as I know. And we don’t have suitcases of cash to drop across Cuba. I thought Dr. Ryker was here to help us prevent problems, not invent fantasies. I’ve got a lunch meeting,” she said, and stormed out of the office.