It's Not Luck (15 page)

It was amusing. Really amusing.

They didn’t seem amused.

“We find it hard to believe that you do have a system, but we cannot afford to drop it.” Jim was serious.

I shrugged my shoulders.

He looked straight into my eyes and said, “Alex, you’ll have to take us through such an exercise.”

And Brandon added, “Frankly, I didn’t believe that you could make any sense out of that pile of problems we dumped on you two days ago. I didn’t take your claims seriously you know, the claim that you can find only one core problem that is the cause of all the problems that we listed. But now I’m not too sure. Maybe you do have a system, as awkward as it sounds.”

So in less than an hour I have to go to Trumann’s suite and show them how to find a core problem. For that I’ll have to build the Current Reality Tree of the most involved subject I ever faced. I don’t stand a chance.

I dress in a hurry. When did I last construct a Current Reality Tree? I have used all other Thinking Processes extensively, and I helped Bob with the work on distribution, but the last time I struggled with constructing a Current Reality Tree myself was more than two years ago. I’m not sure if I even remember Jonah’s guidelines to do it. Me and my big mouth. How do I manage to land myself in such impossible corners?

I take the doily with Brandon’s scribbles. Judging from his handwriting he should be a physician. I can barely decipher what he wrote. First, I’ll have to copy it so that it’s legible. While deciphering, I start to see some connections. Maybe I can do something with it.

UNDESIRABLE EFFECTS

Competition is fiercer than ever.


There is increasing pressure to reduce prices.


In more and more cases the price the market is willing to pay doesn’t leave enough margin.


More than ever the market punishes suppliers who don’t perform according to expectation.


Managers are trying to run their companies by striving to achieve local optima.


Various functions inside the company blame each other for lack of performance.


There is unprecedented pressure to take actions that will increase sales.


There is the need to launch new products at an unprecedented rate.


The constant introduction of new products confuses and spoils the market.


Most new outlets and most new/improved products eat into the sales of existing outlets/products.


A large percent of the existing sales force lacks sufficient sales skills.


Salespeople are overloaded.


Production and distribution do not improve fast/significantly enough.


Engineering is unable to deliver new products fast and reliably enough.


Companies don’t come up with sufficient innovative ideas in marketing.

15

“The next step,” I confidently say, “is to find a cause and effect relationship between at least two of the undesirable effects that we listed.” I wish I were as confident as I sound, but at least I remember the next step.

“Does it matter which two?” Jim asks.

“No. Not like in other methods, prioritizing the undesirable effects is not part of the process.”

“That’s good,” he says. “Brandon and I would never agree which of the undesirable effects is more devastating. By the way, saying undesirable-effects is quite a mouthful, wouldn’t it be easier to call them problems?”

“I prefer to call UnDesirable Effects, UDEs, like cooties. Somehow it describes them better.”

They smile politely and bend over the list.

I am in trouble. It’s not a matter of remembering the steps, I think I remember all of them. It’s a matter of meticulously performing them. It’s very difficult to convert intuition into precise verbalization. I’ve never succeeded in constructing a Current Reality Tree without going through a long period of floundering. Now I have to do it under the scrutiny of Trumann and Doughty. I hope that they will be patient, otherwise I’ll come out looking like a complete fool. In any event, trying to construct a Current Reality Tree in front of them is not the best way to impress them—and impress them I must.

“How should we do it?” Brandon asks.

“How should you do what?”

“How are we supposed to go about finding a cause and effect relationship between two undesirable effects?”

“Just review the list and use your intuition. Connections will jump into your mind.”

Then it dawns on me. I’m saved. They are willing to do the job; I’ll be the teacher. This way any floundering will appear to be theirs, not mine. Up to a point, that is. As long as they still feel they are making some progress, that they are not just aimlessly floundering.

“God help me,” I whisper, and dive into my new role. “Well, did either of you find at least two undesirable effects, UDEs, that you can connect?”

“Yes, more than one pair,” Brandon says.

“So, what’s the problem? Give it to me.”

“I don’t feel really comfortable with any connection. It’s too riffraff,” he says.

I know the feeling very well. You examine the list and many connections pop up in your mind. You try to put them down on paper, and none is substantiated. But for that, Jonah taught me the categories of legitimate reservations. That means converting an intuitive connection into something so solid that everyone will refer to it as common sense.

“Don’t worry,” I say encouragingly to Brandon, “give me one pair, any pair.”

“It looks to me,” he hesitantly starts, “that the fact that ‘There is unprecedented pressure to take actions that will increase sales,’ leads to the fact that ‘There is a need to launch new products at an unprecedented rate.’ But I don’t feel comfortable with it. Not that it’s not correct, but . . .”

I take two yellow Post-it-notes. On one I write his first UDE, UDE number seven, the one about pressure to increase sales, and on the other I write his second, the one dealing with the need to launch new products. I stick them on a large piece of white paper and connect them with an arrow.

“Some clarity is needed,” I agree. “These two effects seem to be connected by a very long arrow.”

“A trans-Atlantic arrow,” Doughty laughs.

“Try to clarify the cause-effect connection by inserting an intermediate step,” I advise Brandon. When it doesn’t help, I try again. “What is the connection between pressure to increase sales and launching new products?”

“Isn’t it obvious?” he seems surprised. “Pressure to increase sales translates into pressure to develop new products, which then have to be launched into the market.”

“Makes sense,” I say, and on a third post-it I write, “There is unprecedented pressure to promptly develop new products.” I stick this new post-it on the white sheet between the other two. We all examine it.

“It makes more sense,” Doughty agrees, “but something is still missing.”

“Yes; we call it ‘insufficiency.’ So let me add what I think is missing.” They wait for me while I scribble another note and stick it alongside the bottom one. I read the note that I’ve just added, “ ‘One of the most effective ways to increase sales is to develop new, improved products.’ Agree?”

They do.

“So, if ‘There is unprecedented pressure to take actions that will increase sales’ and ‘One of the most effective ways to increase sales is to develop new, improved, products,’ then,” and I read the intermediate note, “then, ‘There is unprecedented pressure to promptly develop new, improved products.’ Now, if ‘There is unprecedented pressure to promptly develop new, improved products,’ then, not before long, ‘There is the need to launch new products at an unprecedented rate.’ How does it look now?”

They like it.

I don’t.

“Fellows,” I say, “something is still wrong. In almost all industries there is unprecedented pressure to take actions to increase sales, but only some industries are launching new products at unprecedented rates.”

“I don’t agree,” says Brandon. “Almost every industry is launching new products at a higher frequency than ever before. Even banks are constantly coming up with new programs.”

“There is a difference,” Jim says. “Can you really compare what is happening in industries like cosmetics, golf clubs or anything related to electronics to what happens in banks? In those industries the average lifetime of a product is less than two, or even less than one, year. They have to replace almost all their products every two years. That is what I call at an unprecedented rate.”

“I guess you are right,” Brandon agrees.

“You see the problem?” I say. “At the bottom of the tree, we have statements that are correct for all industries. At the top, we have a conclusion that is correct for only some industries. Something is missing from the bottom,” I conclude. “So if we want the tree to be correct, we must add to the bottom the entity that exists for only some industries, which enables those same industries to develop new products at such a frantic pace.”

Finally, I say, “Let me suggest something,” and I add another post-it to the bottom. “‘There are industries where fast development of new materials enables the development of new products.’ ”

“He has a point,” Jim thoughtfully says. “A mediocre electronic engineer working with today’s components will produce a much better product than the best engineer ten years ago. So, what are we going to do with it? How are we going to correct our tree?”

“Like porcupines making love,” I say. “Very carefully. First we have to decide on a name for these special industries. Let’s call industries where fast development of new materials enables the development of new products ‘advanced material industries,’ for short.

“Now we have to reread what we’ve written and do any necessary corrections. If ‘There are industries where fast development of new materials enables the development of new products—advanced material industries,’ and ‘One of the most effective ways to increase sales is to develop new products,’ and ‘There is unprecedented pressure to take actions that will increase sales,’ then, ‘In advanced material industries there is unprecedented pressure to promptly develop new, improved products.’ ”