Jack Ryan 4 - The Hunt for Red October (14 page)

“Gentlemen, these ships have been ordered to locate Red October, and if necessary, to sink her.” Ryan paused for effect. "As you can see, the Soviet surface force is here, about halfway between the European mainland and
Iceland
. Their submarines, these in particular, are all heading southwest towards the
U.S.
coast. Please note, there is no unusual activity on the Pacific side of either country—except we have information that Soviet fleet ballistic missile submarines in both oceans are being recalled to port.

“Therefore, while we do not know exactly what Captain Ramius said, we can draw some conclusions from these patterns of activity. It would appear that they think he's heading in our direction. Given his estimated speed as something between ten and thirty knots, he could be anywhere from here, below
Iceland
, to here, just off our coast. You will note that in either case he has successfully avoided detection by all four of these SOSUS barriers—”

“Wait a minute. You say they have issued orders to their ships to sink one of their submarines?”

“Yes, Mr. President.”

The president looked at the DCI. “This is reliable information, Judge?”

“Yes, Mr. President, we believe it to be solid.”

“Okay, Dr. Ryan, we're all waiting. What's this Ramius fellow up to?”

“Mr. President, our evaluation of this intelligence data is that Red October is attempting to defect to the
United States
.”

The room went very quiet for a moment. Ryan could hear the whirring of the fan in the slide projector as the National Security Council pondered that. He held his hands on the lectern to keep them from shaking under the stare of the ten men in front of him.

“That's a very interesting conclusion, Doctor.” The president smiled. “Defend it.”

“Mr. President, no other conclusion fits the data. The really crucial thing, of course, is the recall of their other missile boats. They've never done that before. Add to that the fact that they have issued orders to sink their newest and most powerful missile sub, and that they are chasing in this direction, and one is left with the conclusion that they think she has left the reservation and is heading this way.”

“Very well. What else could it be?”

“Sir, he could have told them that he's going to fire his missiles. At us, at them, the Chinese, or just about anyone else.”

“And you don't think so?”

“No, Mr. President. The SS-N-20 has a range of six thousand miles. That means he could have hit any target in the Northern Hemisphere from the moment he left the dock. He's had six days to do that, but he has not fired. Moreover, if he had threatened to launch his birds, he would have to consider the possibility that the Soviets would enlist our assistance to locate and sink him. After all, if our surveillance systems detect the launch of nuclear-armed missiles in any direction, things could get very tense, very quickly.”

“You know he could fire his birds in both directions and start World War III,” the secretary of defense observed.

“Yes, Mr. Secretary. In that case we'd be dealing with a total madman—more than one, in fact. On our missile boats there are five officers, who must all agree and act in unison to fire their missiles. The Soviets have the same number. For political reasons their nuclear warhead security procedures are even more elaborate than ours. Five or more people, all of whom wish to end the world?” Ryan shook his head. “That seems most unlikely, sir, and again, the Soviets would be well advised to inform us and enlist our aid.”

“Do you really think they would inform us?” Dr. Pelt asked. His tone indicated what he thought.

“Sir, that's more a psychological question than a technical one, and I deal principally with technical intelligence. Some of the men in this room have met their Soviet counterparts and are better equipped to answer that than I am. My answer to your question, however, is yes. That would be the only rational thing for them to do, and while I do not regard the Soviets as entirely rational by our standards, they are rational by their own. They are not given to this sort of high-stakes gambling.”

“Who is?” the president observed. “What else might it be?”

“Several things, sir. It could simply be a major naval exercise aimed at testing their ability to close our sea lines of communication and our ability to respond, both on short notice. We reject this possibility for several reasons. It's too soon after their autumn naval exercise, C
RIMSON
S
TORM
, and they are only using nuclear submarines; no diesel-powered boats seem to be involved. Clearly speed is at a premium in their operation. And as a practical matter, they do not run major exercises at this time of year.”

“And why is that?” the president asked.

Admiral Foster answered for Ryan. “Mr. President, the weather up there at this time of the year is extremely bad. Even we don't schedule exercises under these conditions.”

“I seem to recall we just ran a NATO exercise, Admiral,” Pelt noted.

“Yes, sir, south of
Bermuda
, where the weather's a lot nicer. Except for an antisub exercise off the
British Isles
, all of N
IFTY
D
OLPHIN
was held on our side of the lake.”

“Okay, let's get back to what else their fleet might be up to,” the president ordered.

"Well, sir, it might not be an exercise at all. It could be the real thing. This could be the beginning of a conventional war against NATO, its first step being interdiction of the sea lines of communication. If so, they've achieved complete strategic surprise and are now throwing it away by operating so overtly that we cannot fail to notice or react forcefully. Moreover, there is no corresponding activity whatever in their other armed services. Their army and air force—except for maritime surveillance aircraft—and their Pacific Fleet are engaged in routine training operations.

“Finally, this could be an attempt to provoke or divert us, drawing our attention to this while they are preparing to spring a surprise somewhere else. If so, they're going about it in a strange way. If you try to provoke somebody, you don't do it in his front yard. The
Atlantic
, Mr. President, is still our ocean. As you can see from this chart, we have bases here in
Iceland
, the
Azores
, all up and down our coast. We have allies on both sides of the ocean, and we can establish air superiority over the entire Atlantic if we so choose. Their navy is numerically large, larger than ours in some critical areas, but they cannot project force as well as we can—not yet, anyway—and certainly not right off our coast.” Ryan took a sip of water.

“So, gentlemen, we have a Soviet missile submarine at sea when all the others, in both oceans, are being recalled. We have their fleet at sea with orders to sink that sub, and evidently they are chasing it in our direction. As I said, this is the only conclusion that fits the data.”

“How many men on the sub, Doctor?” the president asked.

“We believe 110 or so, sir.”

“So, 110 men all decide to defect to the
United States
at one time. Not an altogether bad idea,” the president observed wryly, “but hardly a likely one.”

Ryan was ready for that. “There is precedent for this, sir. On
November 8, 1975
, the Storozhevoy, a Soviet Krivak-class missile frigate, attempted to run from
Riga
,
Latvia
, to the Swedish
island
of
Gotland
. The political officer aboard, Valery
Sablin, led a mutiny of the enlisted personnel. They locked their officers in their cabins and raced away from the dock. They came close to making it. Air and fleet units attacked them and forced them to halt within fifty miles of Swedish territorial waters. Two more hours and they would have made it. Sablin and twenty-six others were court-martialed and shot. More recently we have had reports of mutinous episodes on several Soviet vessels—especially submarines. In 1980 an Echo-class Soviet attack submarine surfaced off
Japan
. The captain claimed to have had a fire aboard, but photographs taken by naval reconnaissance aircraft—ours and Japanese—did not show smoke or fire-damaged debris being jettisoned from the submarine. However, the crewmen on deck did show sufficient evidence of trauma to support the conclusion that a riot had taken place aboard. We have had similar, sketchier reports for some years now. While I admit this is an extreme example, our conclusion is decidedly not without precedent.”

Admiral Foster reached inside his jacket and came out with a plastic-tipped cigar. His eyes sparkled behind the match. “You know, I could almost believe this.”

“Then I wish you'd tell us all why, Admiral,” the president said, “because I still don't.”

“Mr. President, most mutinies are led by officers, not enlisted men. The reason for this is simply that the enlisted men do not know how to navigate the ship. Moreover, officers have the advantages and educational background to know that successful rebellion is a possibility. Both of these factors would be even more true in the Soviet Navy. What if just the officers are doing this?”

“And the rest of the crew is going along with them?” Pelt asked. “Knowing what would happen to them and their families?”

Foster puffed a few times on his cigar. "Ever been to sea, Dr. Pelt? No? Let's imagine for the moment that you're taking a world cruise, on the Queen Elizabeth 2, say. One fine day you're in the middle of the
Pacific Ocean
—but how do you know exactly where you are? You don't know. You know what the officers tell you. Oh, sure, if you know a little astronomy, you might be able to estimate your latitude to within a few hundred miles. With a good watch and some knowledge of spherical trigonometry you might even guess your longitude to within a few hundred. Okay? That's on a ship that you can see from.

“These guys are on a submarine. You can't see a whole lot. Now, what if the officers—not even all the officers—are doing this? How will the crew know what's going on?” Foster shook his head. "They won't. They can't. Even our guys might not, and our men are trained a lot better than theirs. Their seamen are nearly all conscripts, remember. On a nuclear submarine you are absolutely cut off from the outside world. No radios except for ELF and VLF—and that's all encrypted; messages have to come through the communications officer. So, he has to be in on it. Same thing with the boat's navigator. They use inertial navigation systems, same as us. We have one of theirs, from that Golf we lifted off
Hawaii
. In their machine the data is also encrypted. The quartermaster reads the numbers off the machine, and the navigator gets their position from a book. In the Red Army, on land, maps are classified documents. Same thing in their navy. The enlisted men don't get to see charts and are not encouraged to know where they are. This would be especially true on missile submarines, right?

“On top of all that, these guys are working sailors, nucs. When you're at sea, you have a job to do, and you do it. On their ships, that means from fourteen to eighteen hours a day. These kids are all draftees with very simple training. They're taught to perform one or two tasks—and to follow their orders exactly. The Soviets train people to do their jobs by rote, with as little thinking as possible. That's why on major repair jobs you see officers holding tools. Their men will have neither the time nor the inclination to question their officers about what's going on. You do your job, and depend on everybody else to do his. That's what discipline at sea is all about.” Foster tapped his cigar ash into an ashtray. “Yes, sir, you get the officers together, maybe not even all of them, and this would work. Getting ten or twelve dissidents together is a whole lot easier than assembling a hundred.”

“Easier, but hardly easy, Dan,” General Hilton objected. “For Christ's sake, they have at least one political officer aboard, plus moles from their intelligence outfits. You really think a Party hack would go along with this?”

 “Why not? You heard Ryan—that frigate's mutiny was led by the political officer.”

“Yeah, and since then they have shaken up that whole directorate,” Hilton responded.

“We have defecting KGB types all the time, all good Party members,” Foster said. Clearly he liked the idea of a defecting Russian sub.

The president took all this in, then turned to Ryan. “Dr. Ryan, you have managed to persuade me that your scenario is a theoretical possibility. Now, what does the CIA think we ought to do about it?”

“Mr. President, I'm an intelligence analyst, not—”

“I know very well what you are, Dr. Ryan. I've read enough of your work. I can see you have an opinion. I want to hear it.”

Ryan didn't even look at Judge Moore. “We grab her, sir.”

“Just like that?”

“No, Mr. President, probably not. However, Ramius could surface off the
Virginia
Capes
in a day or two and request political asylum. We ought to be prepared for that contingency, sir, and my opinion is that we should welcome him with open arms.” Ryan saw nods from all the chiefs. Finally somebody was on his side.

“You've stuck your neck out on this one,” the president observed kindly.

“Sir, you asked me for an opinion. It will probably not be that easy. These Alfas and Victors appear to be racing for our coast, almost certainly with the intention of establishing an interdiction force—effectively a blockade of our Atlantic coast.”

“Blockade,” the president said, “an ugly word.”

“Judge,” General Hilton said, “I suppose it's occurred to you that this is a piece of disinformation aimed at blowing whatever highly placed source generated this report?”

Judge Moore affected a sleepy smile. “It has, Gener'l. If this is a sham, it's a damned elaborate one. Dr. Ryan was directed to prepare this briefing on the assumption that this data is genuine. If it is not, the responsibility is mine.” God bless you, Judge, Ryan said to himself, wondering just how gold-plated the
W
ILLOW
source was. The judge went on, “In any case, gentlemen, we will have to respond to this Soviet activity whether our analysis is accurate or not.”

“Are you getting confirmation on this, Judge?” the president asked.

“Yes, sir, we are working on that.”

“Good.” The president was sitting straight, and Ryan noted his voice become crisper. “The judge is correct. We have to react to this, whatever they're really up to. Gentlemen, the Soviet Navy is heading for our coast. What are we doing about it?”