Lethal Trajectories (41 page)

“I won’t lie to you, Peng, it’s going to be a battle royal. The American people, and particularly the members of Congress, have gotten used to having things their own way. The very thought of rationing—and doing it in concert with China—will be repugnant to many, particularly the hardliners.”

“That sounds troublesome, Jack. How will he do it?”

“He plans to tell it like it is when he addresses Congress next Monday. He’ll mince no words about the magnitude of the crisis, and he’ll also address climate-change and the broader economic challenges we face. He has faith that the American people will respond favorably once they understand the gravity of the predicament we’re in. He’ll also push his executive powers to the limit to make it happen. But it’ll be a major challenge.”

“I’m glad to hear Clayton will address the broad spectrum of issues,” Wang said, “and I hope as a result of our efforts we can also collaborate fully on climate-change and economic issues. Needless to say, the Politburo is acutely interested in how the United States manages its economy given the amount of its debt that China holds.”

Jack grimaced at the reminder and sipped his coffee before asking, “Have you had any further thoughts on my meeting with Prince Khalid?”

“I think it’s a promising development. I’ve said nothing to my team about it, but I did bounce it off Lin Cheng.”

“What was his reaction?” Jack asked eagerly, hoping he had not offended the Chinese leader.

“Without knowing anything about Prince Khalid, he thought it should be pursued. We’ll need a Saudi leader—be it Khalid or someone else—to replace Mustafa. Lin doesn’t want China left out of the discussions with Khalid, but he thought it is best not to have too many fingers in the pot at this stage.”

Relieved, Jack changed the subject. “What time will you be leaving today?”

“I’ll need to leave by early afternoon to brief Lin Cheng and prepare for the upcoming Politburo Standing Committee meeting. How about you?”

“I’m in the same boat as you. We’re having a major meeting in Washington tonight to fine-tune our plans and prepare for Clayton’s speech to Congress on Monday. Clayton said he’d be happy to send Lin Cheng a copy of his speech once it’s completed so that we’re not throwing any last-minute surprises at him.”

“I know Lin Cheng would appreciate that,” Wang responded.

The two old college buddies rolled up their sleeves to conclude their work on the unresolved issues. It was a work in process, but at least they were making progress.

C
layton McCarty peered out the window of the Oval Office at the light rain and falling leaves of autumn. It was his first good look outdoors after a heavy day of Safe Harbors planning meetings. He longed for the chance to take a long walk to clear his mind and gain perspective.
Here I am,
he mused,
supposedly the most powerful person in the world, and I’m a prisoner in my own house—some power.
…

He collected his papers and started the short walk to the Situation Room, pleased with the progress his people had made on Safe Harbors and encouraged by the success of Jack’s meetings in Geneva. The NSC was assembled and waiting when he entered the room. He greeted them and nodded at Admiral Coxen, inviting him to begin.

“The purpose of our meeting this evening,” said Coxen, “is to finalize the blueprint for Safe Harbors, to the extent we can, in preparation for the president’s address on Monday night. We expect Jack McCarty to join us as soon as his plane touches down from Geneva.”

“Thank you, Admiral,” Clayton interjected, “and I’d like to thank all of you for your Herculean efforts on behalf of Safe Harbors. Admiral Coxen has distributed copies of your respective reports in advance of this meeting, and we’ve all been talking to each other as well. I’d like to hear the latest from each of you, and I’ll then outline Monday’s speech and ask for your feedback.”

Clayton listened carefully to their presentations, impressed with the quality of their reports and pleased with the collegial efforts put forth to develop the complex plan. He found the CIA report on Israel’s nuclear preparations chilling, but he was overjoyed at the conclusion of the report to see his brother enter the room with his mischievous grin.

“Hi, stranger,” said the president joyfully, “I hope you enjoyed your Geneva vacation.”

“Thanks, Clayton—er, I mean, Mr. President, it was a ball.” The group laughed at Jack’s indiscretion. It relieved some of the tension generated by Tony Mullen’s gloomy presentation on Israel.

“Jack, the floor is yours. We’ve seen your reports, and I’ve passed on what you’ve explained over the phone, but we’d like to hear it now from you, firsthand,” said the president.

“Thank you, Mr. President. There are really three things I’d like to report on. The first is my clandestine meeting with Prince Khalid ibn Saud—and by the way, Tony, your CIA boys did a great job in Geneva.” Mullen nodded in appreciation.

“I’ll report on the operational framework we’ve agreed to thus far with China in our alliance against the Saudis, and last, I’ll talk about the global oil rationing protocol we’ve roughed out.” Jack launched into his report with vigor, mostly holding the floor until an argument broke out on the 10 percent oil contingency reserve requirement on domestic production.

Clayton listened to their spirited debate and was amazed at its similarity to Jack’s private reports on his discussions with Wang Peng.
This will be a tough sell with Congress,
he mused,
particularly if America has to pony up even more oil to prop up Japan, or maybe even Israel.

“I suppose it’s an inequity of sorts,” Jack interjected, “but as Wang Peng also pointed out, features of the plan require sacrifice from China as well. Regarding Israel, we’ll have to figure out a way to assure them that their oil and security needs will be met. If they don’t get what they need, they may feel compelled to take a whack at someone. Prince Khalid told me in no uncertain terms that the United States is responsible for keeping Israel at bay and that any attacks by Israel will automatically end any arrangements we might have with him or other Arab countries. One way or another, we’ll probably be sending oil to Japan and Israel.”

“I don’t think any of this is a surprise; we’ll just need to be prepared as we plan. Thanks, Jack, for a great job,” Clayton said emphatically, “and I’d reiterate what you said about this not being a done deal with China. We’ll need a sign-off from the Politburo, and it’s not a no-brainer. Jack and I will call Chairman Lin and Wang Peng after this meeting to confirm our position, and they in turn will review it with the Politburo and get back to me. As a precaution, I’m preparing two versions of my speech—one with China in the deal and the other without—but I sincerely hope for the former.” They all nodded in agreement.

Clayton called a short coffee break before leading the group into the crucial part of the meeting. He had struggled for days to find an effective way to deliver his complex message to the American people in an understandable way. He knew what he wanted to say but was unsure of how to frame such an enormous, interlinked amount of information into a tight speech. His epiphany had come two days ago, in the shower, and he was anxious to run it up the flagpole.

The group reconvened, and Clayton opened, “I’d like to share with you now the basic content of my speech. I ask that you hold off on questions until I’ve finished. It’ll come in three parts. The first part defines the challenges we face using the perfect storm metaphor to describe our current situation. The second part describes our strategic response in the form of our Safe Harbors blueprint. The last part describes what it’ll mean for America and her people. This is a fight for survival, and they need to know what we’re up against; I won’t sugarcoat it.

“These multiple challenges intersect in complex ways. A picture’s worth a thousand words, and I’ve decided to use a perfect storm visual to help describe the challenge.” He brought up his diagram on the large wall screen and gave them a moment to review it before continuing.

“I plan to present this in what many would consider an unorthodox manner. I’ll have this image flashed up on big screens in Congress, and for television viewers I envision a split-screen layout showing both the visual and me. I’m most concerned about making sure the concepts are understood, and this seems to be the most practical way of doing it. The illustration, viewed as I speak, will help tie it all together.”

After a pause to let them read the diagram, he continued. “As you can see, there are four forces on a collision course that will produce the so-called perfect storm. Because the challenges interlock, any solution must address the whole problem to be effective. Piecemeal solutions could actually be counterproductive.

“The first quadrant deals with our energy challenges. While the Saudi crisis is a true emergency requiring immediate action, acute oil shortages will continue even after it’s resolved. The frequency of oil shortages will increase, and with them our vulnerability to the whims of OPEC oil producers. Our oil-based energy systems are unsustainable; we have no choice but to transition to new, non-oil-based energy models as rapidly as possible. This will include new transportation systems, new clean power sources, a national ‘smart grid’ electrical energy highway system equivalent in scope to Dwight Eisenhower’s freeway-building initiative in the 1950s, and other major infrastructure changes.

“Gasoline rationing and the draw-down of our strategic petroleum reserve will help fill the immediate loss of Saudi oil, but true energy independence will not occur until we wean ourselves from our oil addiction. It will take an effort comparable to the Manhattan Project to transform our energy models and change our consumption patterns.

“The second major quadrant, reading left to right, is climate-change. The satellite data is now incontrovertible: a tipping point has been reached, and the negative impacts of climate-change will now accelerate in more visible ways. Flooding, droughts, and severe weather events have already caused steep declines in global agricultural production and freshwater supply. In the short term, America may become the world’s breadbasket, which could require rationing of food products at home. Rising energy prices will, of course, exacerbate the problem. In collaboration with China—hopefully—the United States will call for worldwide mitigation strategies aimed at sharply reducing greenhouse gases, but the best we can hope to do now is slow the rate of deterioration: the damage has been done. We’ll also need to develop robust adaptation strategies to supplement the mitigation component of our broader climate strategy.

“The third quadrant deals with our economic and geopolitical challenges. The global economy has stagnated over the past six years, mainly because of rising energy prices and massive agricultural failures. In America, we’ve mortgaged the future to support our lifestyles, and the IOUs are now coming due. We can’t print more money to get out of it, and our dependence on foreign investments to support our debt is unsustainable. Accordingly, America will need to do what individual American families do—live within its means. A new budget will be prepared, and it will reflect sharp reductions in entitlement programs, major cutbacks in federal spending, and tax reforms—particularly on consumption-based spending.

“This will be hard to swallow, and I will make clear the consequences of the collapse of the American dollar, the petrodollar transactional system, or America’s fiat reserve currency position—all distinct possibilities—if we don’t get our financial house in order. Without aggressive countermeasures, the financial impacts will be devastating to every American household. The American people need to understand that cuts to entitlements are preventative medicine, a cost well worth paying if we can prevent these economic catastrophes from ever happening.

“The last quadrant deals with our expectations and behaviors. We’ve been so busy living the American dream of mobility, prosperity, and freedom that we’ve forgotten it doesn’t come free of charge. The good old days are gone, and we must now learn to live with less. That means getting back to basics and making personal sacrifices comparable to what our grandparents did to win World War II. I know it’s old fashioned, but I’m going to appeal to their patriotism, and I believe the American people will respond favorably and effectively once they understand the gravity of the crisis and learn the ground rules of the new austerity.”

Clayton glanced around the table and was relieved to see heads nodding in agreement. Looking back down at his notes, he continued.

“With respect to our Safe Harbors strategy, I’ll frame the four quadrants in metaphoric terms, using medical treatment and triage processes to describe the actions required. For instance, the Saudi oil crisis is our most life-threatening condition and requires emergency-room care. The long-term energy crisis is an acute condition requiring immediate and sustained efforts—hospitalization—to reverse. The climate-change and economic challenges are deadly chronic diseases requiring significant doses of medicine and lifestyle changes. And last, the behavioral quadrant means getting honest with ourselves and realigning our expectations with the new paradigms and realities we’ll face.”