Copyright © 2009 by Laura F. Dogu, Richard A. Ferri, Taylor Larimore, and Mel Lindauer.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publishing Data
The Boglehead’s guide to retirement planning/Taylor Larimore . . . [et al.]; foreword by John C. Bogle.
p. cm
Includes index.
eISBN : 978-0-470-55286-5
1. Retirement income—Planning. 2. Finance, Personal. I. Larimore, Taylor, 1924-
HG179.B5688 2009
332.024’ 014-dc.024’014—dc22 2009021676
This book is dedicated to John C. Bogle.
For his wisdom, kindness, and unselfish devotion to helping individuals achieve their dreams.
All royalties from the sale of this book are being donated to:
The National Constitution Center
Philadelphia, PA
Foreword
It’s hard to imagine a more fortuitous time to write a guide to retirement planning. The global financial crisis and the recession and bear market it has brought in its wake have exposed the tenuous condition of the retirement savings of millions of Americans, who would undoubtedly benefit from the sort of advice the Bogleheads dispense in this book.
On the other hand, it’s also hard to imagine a time when investors might be more reluctant to read
anything
that has to do with investing. Their nest eggs often depleted and sometimes shattered, and dreams of retirement delayed if not deferred—largely due to the recklessness of a select group of Wall Street experts who seemed unable to measure the risks on the balance sheets of the firms they ran—one could hardly blame an investor who says “the heck with it all,” writing off the financial markets as a rigged game, one in which their capital is used, first and foremost, to enrich the insiders.
But the fact that such a reaction is understandable doesn’t make it correct. For better or worse, most Americans today who want to enhance the modest retirement income distributed through our Social Security system have been given the responsibility of funding and managing their own retirement accounts, charged with investing their way to a secure financial future. The current economic crisis will not absolve us of that responsibility, even as it makes it more difficult. Invest we must.
But that by no means implies that investors should continue blithely along the path they’d been on. As the current bear market has made plain, too many Americans were ill-prepared to shoulder the responsibility that had been placed upon them. Even worse, our mutual fund industry was equally incapable of providing the assistance our nation of amateur investors needed. The conflicts of interest mutual fund managers face—seeking to maximize their own earnings, which reduce, dollar for dollar, the returns earned by their mutual fund investors—proved too great a temptation for them to resolve in favor of their fund investors.
So what is an investor to do? First and foremost, seek wisdom. “Wisdom excelleth folly as far as light excelleth darkness.” I used those words from Ecclesiastes some 15 years ago, in the epilogue of my first book,
Bogle on Mutual Funds,
as a way of introducing my Twelve Pillars of Wisdom, which I described as “lamps to guide you on your search for a sensible, productive investment program.”
Reviewing them recently, I was struck by how well they have stood the test of time. I’ll let you judge for yourself:
1.
Investing is not nearly as difficult as it looks.
Successful investing involves doing just a few things right and avoiding serious mistakes.
2.
When all else fails, fall back on simplicity.
There may be a handful of alternatives that prove to be better than simply buying and holding a portfolio balanced equally between a total stock market index fund and a total bond market index fund over the long term, but the number of alternatives that will prove to be worse is infinite.
3.
Time marches on.
The majesty of compounding returns is remarkable. Over 25 years, an 8 percent annual return grows a $10,000 investment by $58,500. But the tyranny of compounding costs is remarkably destructive. Annual costs of 2.5 percent would reduce that return to 5.5 percent and slice your portfolio’s long-term growth by more than half, to $28,100.
1
4.
Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Yes, the stock market is volatile. Yes, its future returns are unknown. But eschewing the stock market incurs its own risks. Our recognition of that and our faith in the resiliency of American capitalism compel the majority of American investors to allocate at least some portion of their nest egg to stocks in an effort to reach their long-term goals.
5.
Diversify, diversify, diversify.
While it’s impossible to eliminate all of the risk associated with investing, risk can be greatly reduced by diversifying broadly within each asset class (ideally, using a low-cost total market index fund) and then constructing a well-balanced portfolio that owns an appropriate mix of stocks and bonds.
6.
The eternal triangle.
Risk, return, and cost are the three sides of the eternal triangle of investing, inextricably linked to the long-term growth of your portfolio.
7.
The powerful magnetism of the mean.
Investment superstars come and go, the vast majority proving to be comets who briefly illuminate the firmament with spectacular performance, only to see their returns deteriorate, returning to, and then lagging, the average returns of their peers and the market.
8.
Don’t overestimate your ability to pick superior equity mutual funds, nor underestimate your ability to pick superior bond and money market funds.
In equity funds, past returns tell us nothing about what the future holds. Performance comes and goes, and yesterday’s leaders are likely to be tomorrow’s laggards. The top-performing bond and money market funds, on the other hand, are typically populated by the lowest-cost alternatives. In these areas, investors can choose the low-cost leaders with a reasonable amount of confidence in their favorable prospects for continued success.
9.
You may have a stable principal value or a stable income stream, but you may not have both.
Intelligent investing involves choices, compromises, and trade-offs, perfectly illustrated by the choice between a 90-day Treasury bill’s fixed value and volatile income stream, on one hand, and a long-term Treasury bond fund’s volatile market value and relatively stable income stream on the other.
10.
Beware of fighting the last war.
Too many investors—individuals and institutions alike—become infatuated with the recent past and find themselves eternally (and futilely) reacting to what has happened in the financial markets instead of building a portfolio that can withstand whatever the future holds, recognizing that particular cycles and trends never last forever.
11.
You rarely, if ever, know something the market does not.
The financial markets reflect the hopes, the fears, even the greed of all investors everywhere. It is nearly always unwise to act on insights you think are your own but are in fact shared by millions of others.
12.
Think long term.
The daily volatility of the market is often “a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” The wise investor tunes out this noise and patiently focuses on the long term while staying the course.
Of course, these 12 pillars are more than just an epilogue to a 15-year-old book. They represent the foundation on which I built The Vanguard Group. From its inception in 1974, I strove to make Vanguard a firm that emphasized the simple over the complex, the enduring over the ephemeral, and the low-cost over the costly, represented most clearly by the broad market index fund, which guarantees its investors nothing more (and nothing less) than their fair share of whatever returns our financial markets provide.
And as pleased as I am that, 35 years later, history has shown the merit in such an approach to investing, I’m even more pleased with how broadly it’s been embraced by millions of investors, none more so than the group that calls themselves the Bogleheads.
I met my first Boglehead on February 3, 1999. I had flown to Miami to deliver a speech, and Taylor Larimore, the group’s unofficial leader, invited me to join a group of his compatriots for dinner at his home that evening. Taylor and his friends proved to be as wonderful a group of people as I had ever met—intelligent, thoughtful, trustworthy, and eager to help others—in short, good human beings. We all had so much fun that our gathering quickly became an annual event. We’ve held our reunions in cities all over the country, and each one has been larger than its predecessor. Bogleheads 8 is scheduled for Dallas, Texas, in September 2009.
This group of like-minded investors represents the promise of our electronic age, which combines a seemingly endless amount of information with an unprecedented ease of communication. Harnessing both, the Bogleheads band together to help and encourage all comers to sort through the noise in the pursuit of their financial goals. Collectively, the group provides a vast gold mine of wisdom and experience waiting to be explored.
The Bogleheads’ Guide to Retirement Planning
is a true gem from that gold mine, a book whose advice is firmly built upon those Twelve Pillars of Wisdom. Truly a group effort (no fewer than 40 Bogleheads contributed to it in some capacity), this book provides the reader with a first-rate primer on saving and investing for retirement, covering everything from opening and funding a retirement account, to investing it wisely, to drawing down your account, to estate planning—not quite cradle-to-grave coverage, but pretty close.
Importantly, these investors/writers/believers do so in a way that even the most novice investor will be able to follow. I’m admittedly not the most impartial judge of their work—heck, I’m probably the
least
impartial person you could find for that task—but I’m certain that our nation of investors would be far better served if more of them acted on the advice the Bogleheads dispense in this book.
I’m often asked what it’s like to have a group of people name themselves after you. It is, I readily admit, more than a little surreal, at least in the abstract. But getting to know the Bogleheads over the past 10 years or so—both in person and by following their online community—has been one of the more rewarding experiences of my long career, not because of the undeniable boost they provide my ego (though that never hurts!) but because the Bogleheads represent the fulfillment of what I have dedicated my career to building.
When I founded Vanguard all those years ago, I did so in the face of enormous skepticism. It was a brand-new organization—one operating with a then-as-now unique structure—whose success depended not on a vast marketing budget or an army of sales representatives but on faith—a faith that individual investors, one by one, would come to recognize that this then-tiny firm, doing things differently, would serve their own economic interests, and a faith that that would be sufficient to ensure our enterprise’s success.
When I chat with the Bogleheads, they almost invariably thank me for starting Vanguard. But in reality, it is I who should be thanking them. It is investors like these fine human souls who validated my leap of faith and who allowed the Vanguard experiment to flourish. And that success, such as it were, has provided me with far more acclaim than any one person deserves. It is hardly an overstatement to say that whatever success I may have enjoyed in my long career is due entirely to the fact that my faith in investors like the Bogleheads has been so well placed.