Dr. Eison explained, “The image at the top is the San Francisco fault.
Conventional wisdom has been telling us the Pacific Plate will rift here.
And we have been concentrating our evacuation training here. If you will, please, Jeff.”
Jeff changed the image so that the state of California was superimposed over that of the entire globe. Suddenly, satellites appeared, crossing in nearly every conceivable angle.
“The heavenly super highway,” Dr. Eison said.
As the orbits of each satellite passed over California, each dipped and wobbled. It looked as if some mighty magnet was trying to dissuade them from passing that way. Homing in on the northern fault, the program began to spit out calculations. Earthquake Predicted: 2013; Location: San Francisco fault; Magnitude: 5.6 to 5.8; Estimated Damage: Minimal.
A hushed sigh went out from those in the room who had family and friends in the Bay area. A major quake had been predicted there for so long that everyone thought the end might come any day, but a 5.8 earthquake was like a popgun to that area; it might rattle a few buildings, but little more.
Without speaking, Dr. Eison motioned to Jeff to continue. The program now zoomed in on the other side of the Pacific rim, namely the southern part of Japan, where another bright red line appeared. Once more the calculations began: Earthquake Predicted: 2013; Location: Tokyo; Magnitude: 8.2 to 8.4; Estimated Damage: 2.3 to 2.5 million deaths.
The gasps were audible in the room, but even as the nonscientists were trying to comprehend what they had just seen, the image was zooming in even closer. The display showed the city of Tokyo in computer imagery just after the quake struck. Virtually no buildings were left intact in the downtown area. For forty miles around, the program displayed massive fires and destruction.
The next caption read: Residual Tremors Predicted: 6.5, 6.3, 6.0, 5.4, 4.9, 3.5 over the next 72 hours. Predict Tokyo uninhabitable for at least twelve months.
Even as the roomful of scientists and reporters was trying to absorb the enormity of it all, the screen shifted to the next caption: Tsunami expected in Pacific basin. Amplitude: 300 feet; Rate of Travel: 300 to 400 mph; Expected Target: Philippine Islands and U.S. West Coast. Inland wave in California predicted at 16 feet.
“The earthquake will create a tidal waveâcalled a tsunamiâthat will travel across the Pacific at the rate of 300 to 400 miles per hour,” Dr. Eison explained. “It will hit the Philippines and California with the force of a multimegaton bomb. It will hit the southern coast of California and sweep inland, virtually wiping out everything in its path at least one mile inland.”
“Doctor, do you realize what you're saying?” shouted one of the reporters. “Thirty million people live in the area you describe.”
“I realize that all too clearly,” Dr. Eison answered solemnly. “I hope we're wrong, but I don't think so.”
“What are you planning to do?” asked another reporter. “I live in L.A. and so do several million of our readers.”
“That's really not up to me. That is a decision for the governor and the president.”
This is our chance to take Governor Crow out of the race
, thought Cal Rutland, aide to presidential candidate Mark Hunt.
All we need is a disinformation campaign
. . . . As Jeff answered other questions, Rutland reviewed his e-mail he'd typed out on his cell phone. “Senator Mark Hunt: Believe I have found the man to analyze computer capabilities. Jeff Wells, a student at California Institute of Technology. You'll read about his work shortly. Cal”
When the news about the predicted California tidal wave leaked, the public reacted predictablyâwith panic and outrage. The press demanded that Governor Crow do something. However, there was nothing that Governor Jerry Crow could do to prevent the natural disaster, and his popularity rating dropped dramatically; it was exactly what his competitor's election committee was hoping for. Mark Hunt was gunning for him, and for the first time, Jerry had little choice but to duck and cover.
An avid and vocal gay rights activist, Crow had hopes of being the first gay to run for the presidency under the banner of a major political party. His successful moves to revoke the tax-exempt status of most of California's religious institutions had won him national acclaim. And his petition to the FCC to revoke the licenses of religious broadcasters in California had launched him on the path to the White House. When the FCC granted his petition, this same strategy was used across the country to unseat the several thousand religious broadcasters then in place. With many of those stations now under the control of gay power groups, Crow finally had his national forum.
Although it had been only three weeks since the information from Jeff's program had been made public, to Crow it seemed like a lifetime. Everywhere he went the media were there, asking what he was going to do about the crisis. The pressure drove him back to his old escape mechanism: cocaine.
What do those idiots think I can do about an earthquake?
Crow thought angrily as he woke in the aftermath of a severe cocaine crash. He had agreed to kick the habit when he made the run for the presidency; his advisers had told him the country wasn't ready for a president who used drugs.
I'll change that
, he decided as he snorted another line of the white powder.
I'll get drugs legalized and use the tax revenues to build more shelters for the homeless. In fact
, he thought with a stroke of genius,
we'll use those useless church buildings for homeless shelters
. “I'll teach those pious hypocrites,” he said aloud. “They're against anything progressive.”
Later that morning as Jerry was discussing the earthquake with an aide, he quipped,“It might not be so bad to get rid of half the people in Southern California.” The aide winced and said, “Don't repeat that in public, Governor. A lot of voters in Southern California wouldn't agree with you.”
“They're all a bunch of crazies!” he shouted. “What do they expect me to do? Do they think we can just tell an earthquake to go away? I think Hunt's using this thing to make me look bad. Did you see how his buddy spun the story on CNN? Why couldn't a tidal wave hit Virginia?”
As with most crises in America, interest began to fade within a few weeks after the initial furor. Several well-known scientists came out against the predictions given by Jeff's program, citing flaws in the logic, particularly the part about the effects on satellite orbits. Governor Crow immediately focused on these, complaining to all who would listen that the whole idea was a plot to personally discredit him.
“We will not be diverted in our efforts to save lives in the area where the earthquake is expected,” he announced. “But we simply cannot spend countless millions of dollars based solely on the word of a slightly neurotic college grad student.”
Then on May 12, 2013, an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.4 struck the California coast just north of San Francisco. Since hundreds of thousands of citizens had evacuated the area based on public perception that Jeff just might be right, there was virtually no loss of life, except for the few derelicts sleeping inside abandoned buildings. In fact, there was very little damage to existing structures since new building codes had been initiated after the '10 quake, in which hundreds of lives were lost when several office buildings collapsed.
Immediately Governor Crow issued a statement on public radio and television vindicating the position he had taken on the supposed earthquake in Japan: “As you can see, our plans were right on target. Our evacuation saved hundreds of lives, and the earthquake struck exactly where our experts said it would. Californians can rest easy tonight under the leadership of Jerry Crow.”
At the Executive Office Building in Washington, D.C., the phone in Dr. Lowe's office rang. Dr. Lowe, the senior technical adviser on President Kilborne's staff, answered it himself. Only important calls from a select few rang on this line.
“Doctor, this is Cal Rutland. I assume you have seen the news report on the earthquake in California?”
“Yes I have,” the tuxedo-clad scientist replied. He was about to attend a formal banquet at the White House for the Japanese ambassador.
“Are you still certain about the other event?”Rutland asked, referring to a conversation they had had the day after the Livermore press conference.
“Yes. As a matter of fact, I was just preparing a report for the president on the need to evacuate the Southern California coast. I can find no flaw in Wells' prediction of a Pacific tidal wave.”
“We don't think that will be in the best interest of our candidate, Dr. Lowe. We would like for you to advise the president that you disagree with Wells' conclusions.”
“But this report is conclusive,” Lowe argued. “When that quake hits the Japanese islands, we'll have a wave on the West Coast that will rival the destruction of Pompeii.”
“Doctor, sometimes the few must be sacrificed for the good of the many. Remember the group to which you have sworn allegiance. Ours is the responsibility for building a better, more secure world for future generations. With the governor refusing to act and the president taking no action, the support for Senator Hunt will increase.”