The Norm Chronicles (47 page)

7
. Wood, James.
How Fiction Works
(London: Cape, 2008).

8
. Home Office. Homicides, Firearm Offences and Intimate Violence 2010/11: Supplementary Vol. 2 to Crime in England and Wales. 2012. Available from:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/homicides-firearm-offencesand-intimate-violence-2010-to-2011-supplementary-volume-2-to-crime-in-england-and-wales-2010-to-2011
.

9
. BBC News. Brown Pledge to Tackle Stabbings. 11 Jul 2008. Available from:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7502569.stm
.

10
. Spiegelhalter, D., Barnett, A. London Murders: A Predictable Pattern?
Significance
. 2009;6(1):5–8.

11
. See note 2 above.

12
. Ibid.

13
. Home Office. Crime in England and Wales 2006/2007. Available from:
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20110220105210/http:/rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/crimeew0607.html
.

Chapter 23: Surgery

1
. Longer, Healthier, Happier? Human Needs, Human Values and Science. Sense about Science annual lecture. 2007 Available from:
http://www.senseaboutscience.org/pages/annual-lecture-2007.html
.

2
. Isaacs, D., Fitzgerald, D. Seven Alternatives to Evidence Based Medicine.
BMJ
. 1999 Dec 18;319(7225):1618.

3
. Guyatt, G.C.J. Evidence-Based Medicine: A New Approach to Teaching the Practice of Medicine.
JAMA
. 1992 Nov 4;268(17):2420–5.

4
. Ioannidis, J.P.A. Why Most Published Research Findings Are False.
PLoS Med
. 2005;2(8):e124.

5
. Gawande, A.
Complications: A Surgeon’s Notes on an Imperfect Science
(New York: Henry Holt, 2002).

6
. Gross, C.G.
A Hole in the Head: More Tales in the History of Neuroscience
(Cambridge, MA:MIT Press, 2009).

7
. Weiser, T.G., Regenbogen, S.E., Thompson, K.D., Haynes, A.B., Lipsitz, S.R., Berry, W.R., et al. An Estimation of the Global Volume of Surgery: A Modelling Strategy Based on Available Data.
Lancet
. 2008 Jul 12;372(9633):139–44.

8
. Royal College of Anaesthetists. Risks Associated with your Anaesthetic Section 14: Death or Brain Damage. 2009. Available from:
http://www.rcoa.ac.uk/node/2066
.

9
. Nightingale, F.
Notes on Hospitals
(London: Longman, Green, Longman, Roberts and Green, 1863).

10
. Codman, E.A.
A Study in Hospital Efficiency: As Demonstrated by the Case Report of the First Five Years of a Private Hospital
(Boston: T. Todd, 1918).

11
. Ferguson, T.B. Jr, Hammill, B.G., Peterson, E.D., DeLong, E.R., Grover, F.L. A Decade of Change – Risk Profiles and Outcomes for Isolated Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Procedures, 1990-1999: A Report from the STS National Database Committee and the Duke Clinical Research Institute. Society of Thoracic Surgeons.
Ann. Thorac. Surg
. 2002 Feb;73(2):480–489 (discussion 489–90).

12
. Care Quality Commission. Survival Rates – Heart Surgery in United Kingdom 2008–9. Available from:
http://heartsurgery.cqc.org.uk/survival.aspx
.

13
. New York State Department of Health. Cardiovascular Disease Data and Statistics. 2012. Available from:
http://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/diseases/cardiovascular/
.

14
. Campbell, M.J., Jacques, R.M., Fotheringham, J., Maheswaran, R., Nicholl, J. Developing a Summary Hospital Mortality Index: Retrospective Analysis in English Hospitals over Five Years.
BMJ
. 2012 Mar 1;344(mar01 1):e1001–e1001.

15
. Hawkes N. Patient Coding and the Ratings Game.
BMJ
. 2010 Apr 25;340(apr23 2):c2153–c2153.

Chapter 24: Screening

1
. Cancer Research UK. Breast Screening: Accuracy of Mammography. 2012. Available from:
http://www.cancerresearchuk.org/cancer-info/cancerstats/types/breast/screening/Other-Issues/#Accuracy
.

2
. McCartney, M.
The Patient Paradox
(London: Pinter & Martin, 2012).

3
. Mehta, P., Smith-Bindman, R. Airport Full-Body Screening: What Is the Risk?
Arch Intern Med
. 2011 Jun 27;171(12):1112–5.

4
. NHS Breast Screening Programme. Screening for Breast Cancer in England: Past and Future. 2012. Available from:
http://www.cancerscreening.nhs.uk/breastscreen/publications/nhsbsp61.html
.

5
. Yaffe, M.J., Mainprize, J.G. Risk of Radiation-Induced Breast Cancer from Mammographic Screening.
Radiology
. 2011 Jan;258(1):98–105.

6
. Welch, H.G., Schwartz, L.M., Woloshin, S.
Overdiagnosed: Making People Sick in the Pursuit of Health
(Boston, MA: Beacon Press, 2011).

7
. Cancer Research UK. Breast Screening Review. 2012. Available from:
http://www.cancerresearchuk.org/cancer-info/publicpolicy/ourpolicypositions/symptom_Awareness/cancer_screening/breast-screening-review/breast-screening-review
.

8
. Ibid.

9
. Ablin, R.J. The Great Prostate Mistake.
The New York Times
(10 Mar 2010). Available from:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/10/opinion/10Ablin.html
.

10
. House of Lords. Lord Andrew Lloyd-Webber Has Called for All Men over the Age of 50 to Have a Test for Prostate Cancer. BBC. 19 Jul 2010. Available from:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/house_of_lords/newsid_8822000/8822506.stm
.

11
.
Daily Mail
. Andrew Lloyd Webber Reveals Prostate Cancer Battle Has Left Him Impotent. 2011. Available from:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1371379/Andrew-Lloyd-Webber-reveals-prostate-cancer-battle-left-impotent.html
.

12
. Vernooij, M.W., Ikram, M.A., Tanghe, H.L., Vincent, A.J.P.E., Hofman, A., Krestin, G.P., et al. Incidental Findings on Brain MRI in the General Population.
New England Journal of Medicine
. 2007 Nov 1;357(18):1821–8.

13
. Cancer Research UK. Prostate Cancer – UK Incidence Statistics. 2011. Available from:
http://info.cancerresearchuk.org/cancerstats/types/prostate/incidence/
.

14
. See note 6 above.

15
. Andriole, G.L., Crawford, E.D., Grubb, R.L., Buys, S.S., Chia, D., Church, T.R., et al. Prostate Cancer Screening in the Randomized Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial: Mortality Results after 13 Years of Follow-Up.
J. Natl. Cancer Inst
. 2012 Jan 18;104(2):125–32.

16
. Schröder, F.H., Hugosson, J., Roobol, M.J., Tammela, T.L.J., Ciatto, S., Nelen, V., et al. Prostate-Cancer Mortality at 11 Years of Follow-Up..
New England Journal of Medicine
. 2012 Mar 15;366(11):981–90.

17
. Welch, H.G., Frankel, B.A. Likelihood That a Woman With Screen-Detected Breast Cancer Has Had Her ‘Life Saved’ by That Screening.
Arch Intern Med
. 2011 Dec 12;171(22):2043–6.

18
. 23andMe. Genetic Testing for Health, Disease & Ancestry; DNA Test. Available from:
https://www.23andme.com/
.

Chapter 25: Money

1
. Fowler, S. Workhouse: The People, the Places, the Life behind Doors. National Archives; 2007.

2
. Booth, Charles. The Aged Poor in England and Wales (London, 1894). Available from:
http://archive.org/stream/agedpoorinengla00bootgoog/agedpoorinengla00bootgoog_djvu.txt
.

3
. Crowther, M.A.
The Workhouse System, 1834–1929: The History of an English Social Institution
(London: Routledge, 1983).

4
. Orwell, G. D
own and Out in Paris and London: A Novel
(Harcourt, Brace & World, 1961).

5
. Households Below Average Income. Department of Work and Pensions, June 2012. Available from:
http://research.dwp.gov.uk/asd/index.php?page=hbai
.

6
. Ibid.

7
. English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Financial Circumstances, Health and Well-Being of the Older Population in England. 2010. Available from:
http://www.ifs.org.uk/elsa/report10/elsa_w4-1.pdf
.

8
. Department of Health. Fairer Care Funding. The Report of the Commission on Funding of Care and Support. 2011. Available from:
http://www.dilnotcommission.dh.gov.uk/our-report/
.

Chapter 26: The End

1
. Halley, E. An Estimate of the Degrees of the Mortality of Mankind, Drawn from Curious Tables of the Births and Funerals at the City of Breslaw; With an Attempt to Ascertain the Price of Annuities upon Lives. Royal Society of London; 1753. Available from:
http://archive.org/details/philtrans05474358
.

2
. Human Mortality Database. Human Mortality Database. Available from:
http://www.mortality.org/
.

3
. Office for National Statistics. Life Expectancy at Birth and at Age 65 by Local Areas in the United Kingdom. 2011. Available from:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-health4/life-expec-at-birth-age-65/2004-06-to-2008-10/index.html
.

4
. Understanding Uncertainty. Survival Worldwide. 2012. Available from:
http://understandinguncertainty.org/node/272
.

5
. World Health Organisation. World Health Statistics 2011. Available from:
http://www.who.int/gho/publications/world_health_statistics/2011/en/index.htm
.

6
. Human Life-Table Database. 2012. Available from:
http://www.lifetable.de/
.

7
. Office for National Statistics. Period and Cohort Life Expectancy Tables. 2011. Available from:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lifetables/period-and-cohort-life-expectancy-tables/2010-based/index.html
.

8
. Office for National Statistics. What Are the Chances of Surviving to Age 100? 2012. Available from:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lifetables/historic-and-projected-mortality-data-from-the-uk-life-tables/2010-based/rpt-surviving-to-100.html
.

9
. United Nations. Global Issues at the United Nations. Available from:
http://www.un.org/en/globalissues/ageing/
.

10
. Collerton, J., Davies, K., Jagger, C., Kingston, A., Bond, J., Eccles, M.P., et al. Health and Disease in 85 Year Olds: Baseline Findings from the Newcastle 85+ Cohort Study.
BMJ
[Internet]. 2009;339. Available from:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2797051/
.

11
. Office for National Statistics. Pension Trends,
Chapter 2
: Population Change. 2012. Available from:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/pensions/pension-trends/chapter-2--population-change--2012-edition-/index.html
.

12
. Knapp, M., Prince, M. Dementia UK 2007. Available from:
http://alzheimers.org.uk/site/scripts/download_info.php?fileID=2
.

13
. Office for National Statistics. Pension Trends,
Chapter 3
: Life Expectancy and Healthy Ageing. 2012. Available from:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/pensions/pension-trends/chapter-3--life-expectancy-and-healthy-ageing--2012-edition-/index.html
.

14
. British Parachute Association. How Safe? 2012. Available from:
http://www.bpa.org.uk/staysafe/how-safe/
.

Chapter 27: Judgement Day

1
. De Finetti, B.
Theory of Probability
(London: John Wiley, 1974).

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Andrew Franklin of Profile Books first suggested that we write together, an idea for which we’re hugely grateful and which lacked only the detail of something to write about. For that detail, we owe thanks for two professional lifetimes of influences and opportunities and innumerable (even for us) friends and colleagues who helped us along the way. The Profile team has been a joy to work with, as ever. Jonny Pegg has been all you would want from an agent – in fact a double agent – a cogent critic and an affable, encouraging friend. Andrew Dilnot gave invaluable advice at an early stage. Rich Knight and Chris Vince read some early material and said the idea wasn’t unhinged, which helped. Katey Adderley and Caitlin Harris cheered MB along and were a mine of psychological insight about risk, while Joe Harris gave him his most important lesson in how to live with it. Edgar and Kieran supplied the outline of the story about penguins, years ago and from life. Fiona revealed what you can do with a Fray Bentos Pie – from life – and we shamelessly plundered the thoughts about danger of any other friends foolish enough to talk about it. Kate Bull gave unlimited encouragement and advice, and even liked it, which was the main thing. Mike Pearson has provided endless support and inspiration. David Harding’s generosity gave DS the opportunity to spend his time writing this sort of stuff. Thanks to them all.