The Post-American World: Release 2.0 (33 page)

17
. Michael Alison Chandler, “Asian Educators Looking to Loudoun for an Edge,” Washington Post, March 19, 2007.

18
. Eberstadt’s recent articles provide good background on the demographic trends in various regions and their impact on their respective economies: “Born in the USA,” American Interest, May/June 2007; “Critical Cross-Cutting Issues Facing Northeast Asia: Regional Demographic Trends and Prospects,” Asia Policy (Jan. 2007); and “Healthy Old Europe,” Foreign Affairs 86, no. 3 (May/June 2007): 55–68.

19
. Richard N. Cooper, “Living with Global Imbalances: A Contrarian View,” Policy Briefs in International Economics (Institute for International Economics, Nov. 2005).

20
. Sustaining New York’s and the U.S.’s Global Financial Services Leadership, available at www.senate.gov/~schumer/SchumerWebsite/pressroom/special_reports/2007/NY_REPORT%20_FINAL.pdf.

7. American Purpose

1
. Speech to the G8 Economic Summit, Houston, Tex., July 11, 1990.

2
. Charles Krauthammer, “The Unipolar Moment,” Foreign Affairs 70, no. 1 (1990/1991): 23–33.

3
. Speech to the Association France-Amériques, Paris, France, Feb. 1, 1999.

4
. Chris Patten, Not Quite the Diplomat: Home Truths about World Affairs (London: Allen Lane, 2005), 229.

5
. As recounted by Sarkozy’s national security adviser, Jean-David Levitte, in Adam Gopnik, “The Human Bomb,” New Yorker, Aug. 27, 2007.

6
. Robert Kagan, Of Paradise and Power: America and Europe in the New World Order (New York: Alfred Knopf, 2003).

7
. John Ikenberry, “The Rise of China and the Future of the West,” Foreign Affairs 87, no. 1 (Jan./Feb. 2008).

8
. William C. Wohlforth, “The Stability of a Unipolar World,” International Security 21, no. 1 (Summer 1999), 5–41.

9
. Claudia Deutsch, “The Venturesome Giant,” New York Times, Oct. 5, 2007.

10
. Fernando Henrique Cardoso, “A Collaborative Contract,” Newsweek: Issues 2008, Special Edition, Dec. 2007.

11
. Correlli Barnett, The Collapse of British Power (New York: Morrow, 1972).

12
. Josef Joffe, “How America Does It,” Foreign Affairs 76, no. 5 (Sept./Oct. 1997): 13–27.

13
. Anne-Marie Slaughter, “The Real New World Order,” Foreign Affairs 76, no. 5 (Sept./Oct. 1997): 183–97.

14
. Richard N. Haass, “Paradigm Lost,” Foreign Affairs 74, no. 1 (Jan./Feb. 1995): 43–58.

15
. Stephen Flynn, The Edge of Disaster: Rebuilding a Resilient Nation (New York: Random House, 2007).

Acknowledgments

T
his book is the outgrowth of much travel, reading, and reflection over the last few years, but it is also the product of passion. I came to America as a young man, fell in love with the country, and built a life and family here. I want the best for this country and firmly believe that American power and purpose, properly harnessed, benefit both America and the world. I also see a world that is changing fundamentally and fast, and unless America adapts to this new world, its future will look very different from its past.

This book has also been a first for me, the first time I’ve tried to write a book with two children actively demanding my attention. I have professional obligations that are often quite demanding but the hardest part of working on this project—by far—was retreating into my study when my kids wanted to spend time with me. I hope I struck a decent balance between family, work, and the book. Perhaps as a reward, our third child was born the year that the original edition of this book was published.

Writing a book while juggling various other commitments takes work—also help, patience, and indulgence from others. Above all, I want to thank all the smart and generous people at
Newsweek
with whom I worked, particularly Rick Smith, Mark Whitaker, Jon Meacham, Nisid Hajari, and Tony Emerson. Before I came to
Newsweek
, I had always heard that Donald Graham was an extraordinary boss, and I’m happy to report from personal experience that it’s true. Six years ago, I launched a television show on PBS,
Foreign Exchange
, which I hosted until November 2007. Thanks to Bruce Blair, Mark Sugg, and especially Sujata Thomas for being wonderful colleagues in that venture.

Right now my obligations are to CNN and
Time
. Both places have been great organizations, with Jon Klein, Ken Jautz, and Rick Stengel giving me all the support I could want.

Sharon Sullivan, Patricia Huie, and, above all, Jessica del Pilar have managed the acrobatics of my life with great skill and dedication and made day-to-day work a very pleasant experience, for which I am very grateful.

I had help on the research for this book from four extremely talented young people, all now on to greater things: Robert Wiesenberger, Rukhmini Punoose, Alan Isenberg, and Barrett Sheridan. Barrett worked on the book for the longest period and during its most intense phase, and the final product owes a great deal to his hard work, sharp intelligence, and good judgment. He has also been instrumental in crafting this new edition.

I asked a few friends—Andrew Moravscik, Gideon Rose, Zachary Karabell, and Allison Stanger—to read parts of the manuscript and am greatly indebted to them for their extremely useful comments. Daniel Kurtz-Phelan read the whole thing and smoothened out the prose.

Tina Bennett, my agent, was so enthusiastic about this project at every stage that I didn’t quite believe her, and yet it kept me going. Drake McFeely, my editor, is a class act. His comments were well-chosen and apposite. Drake’s assistant, Kyle Frisina, had to turn a manuscript into a book a good bit faster than is the norm and did it without ever complaining. Cullen Stanley has been wonderful at handling the book’s foreign rights. When people talk about the old days when agents and publishers were deeply interested in quality and substance, I feel they have not been lucky enough to know the people at Janklow and Nesbit and W. W. Norton.

I have dedicated this book to my brother Arshad, who came to America a year before I did. I suppose if he hadn’t enjoyed his first year in the States, I wouldn’t be here. Since then we have been friends and companions, through ups and downs. He and I have discussed many of the ideas in this book and I’ve gained much from his insights. I’ve benefited from a lifetime of wisdom, encouragement, support, and love from my mother, Fatma Zakaria. My father, Rafiq Zakaria, died five years ago. I wish I had had the chance to talk over the themes of this book with him.

At one point, I gave my wife, Paula, a draft of some chapters and asked for her comments. She read some of it, made comments, and then said to me, “I think my best contribution to this book can be to keep the family life running and the kids out of your hair.” In fact she has always been an excellent editor—because she is herself a gifted writer—but in the circumstances she was right. Without her help, I would not have had the peace of mind and mental stamina to write this book. I thank her for her love and friendship.

My daughter, Lila, who turned five as the original edition was going to the press, informed me that she was delighted that I was done with it because now she could use my computer to get onto YouTube and listen to songs from
High School Musical
. She has moved on to Justin Bieber. My son, Omar, who was eight at the time, was more concerned about the project itself. When I explained to him for the first time what the book was about, he said in a somewhat distressed tone, “Why do you want to write a book about the future? If you’re wrong, people won’t buy the book anymore.” At least at this point, three years later, I don’t think I’ve embarrassed him.

Index

Abrahamic religions, 122, 171, 172

Abu Sayyaf, 11

Abyssinia, 195

Academy of Science, 211

Acheson, Dean, 255, 256

Acquaviva, Claudio, 124

Adams, James Truslow, 237

affirmative action, 109

Afghanistan, 13, 15, 54, 101, 172, 185, 199, 235–36, 241, 247, 260, 277, 284

Afghan War, 13, 241, 247, 260

Africa:

agriculture in, 70

Chinese influence in, 129–32, 270

Christian population of, 98

colonization of, 65, 79, 80, 129, 156

corruption in, 130–32

economies of, 21n, 40, 68, 129, 130, 242–43

geography of, 77

instability of, 12–13, 20, 29, 40, 65, 68

national debts of, 130

natural resources of, 129

North, 12–13, 20, 80

slaves from, 79

sub-Saharan, 80

U.S. influence in, 270–71, 273

see also specific countries

AFRICOM, 270–71

Aggarwal, Anil, 155

aging populations, 214–15

agriculture, 21, 30, 31, 32–33, 65–67, 70, 71–72, 100, 106, 112, 136, 151, 160

Agtmael, Antoine van, 2

Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud, 16, 55

AIDS, 149, 161

AIG, 43–44

air conditioners, 102

air pollution, 111

airport security, 280

Akbar, 75

Al-Azhar University, 15

Albright, Madeleine, 246

Alembert, Jean Le Rond d’, 123

alerts, terrorist, 277

algebra, 67

Algeria, 13

algorithm, 67

Al-Jabr wa-al-Muqabilah, 67

Al Jazeera, 96

al-Khwarizmi, 67

Al Qaeda, 5, 10–18, 172, 248n, 270, 277

Ambrose, Stephen, 37

American dream, 237

American Enterprise Institute, 213

Amery, Leo, 193

Amsterdam, 67

Anglo-Chinese Wars, 81

Angola, 284

Annan, Kofi, 272

anti-Americanism, 13, 35, 39, 42, 60, 166, 241, 245, 251–55, 274, 283

Apple, Inc., 203

Arab culture, 67, 75, 76, 77, 80, 98

Arab-Israeli conflict, 6, 96, 246

arbitrage, 27

architecture, 95, 98, 103, 105, 152

Argentina, 3, 26, 55, 115

Armenia, 209

Arnold, Thomas, 187

Arroyo, Gloria, 133

art, modern, 95

ash-Sheikh, Abdulaziz al, 15

Asia:

agriculture in, 70

Chinese influence in, 132–36, 143, 173, 176–77, 259, 267, 281

colonization of, 79, 80–82, 156

demographics of, 214–15

East, 20, 23, 29, 32, 36, 52, 64n, 65, 122, 133, 214, 241–42, 245

economies of, 52, 75, 138, 151–52, 221

education in, 208–12

financial markets of, 221–22

geography of, 76

global influence of, 245, 257, 259

India’s influence in, 151–52, 173, 181

manufacturing sector of, 202–3

South, 21n, 52, 60

technology sector of, 200–208

U.S. influence in, 90, 241–42, 245, 259–60, 266, 267, 273–74, 280–81

Western influence in, 90, 93, 99

see also specific countries

“Asian Tigers,” 26

assets, 219

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), 132, 133

Atatürk, Kemal, 84

Australia, 78, 132, 143, 196, 252, 266

Austria, 223

automobile industry, 33, 110, 149, 192, 205, 225, 229–30, 244

Autor, David, 231

Bacon, Francis, 86

bailouts, 43, 44

Baker, James A., III, 39, 244

Bakiyev, Kurmanbek, 54

balance of power, 79

Bali bombings (2002), 11, 17

Balkans, 20, 29, 117–18, 245, 246, 247

Bangalore, 50

Bangladesh, 60, 159, 281

Ban Ki-moon, 30

banking industry, 36, 43–45, 81, 106, 107, 109, 110, 127, 139, 153, 157

Barma, Naazneen, 38

Barnett, Correlli, 262

“Base Structure Report” (2006), 262

Bay of Pigs invasion (1961), 20

BBC, 96, 120

Bear Stearns, xi

Beijing, 71, 103, 105, 111, 137, 150, 211

“Beijing Consensus, The” (Ramo), 142–43

Beijing Olympic Games (2008), 5, 103, 105, 137

Belgium, 41

Berlin, 103

Berlin Wall, 24

Beveridge Plan, 197

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), 158–59, 160, 178, 179–80

Bhutan, 166

Bialik, Carl, 205

Bible, 172

bicycles, 192

bin Laden, Osama, 12, 13, 14–15, 85, 269–70

biological weapons, 18

biotechnology, 201–2, 215

bipolar order, 4

Bismarck, Otto von, 198, 257, 266–67

Blackwill, Robert, 177

Blair, Tony, 274

Blinder, Alan, 230–31

Bloomberg, Michael, 220–21

“blue card,” 224

blue jeans, 88, 89, 91

Boer War, 188–90, 261

Bollywood, 90, 94, 147, 153–55

Bono, 272

Boorstin, Daniel, 69

Bosnia, 272

Brahmans, 74

“brain drain,” 167

brand names, 203

Brazil, xii, 2, 3–4, 19, 23, 26, 28–29, 39, 48, 49, 53, 55, 60, 79, 95, 98, 257, 258, 259, 263

Bretton Woods Conference (1944), 253

British East India Company, 60, 80, 82–83

British Empire, 36, 37, 57, 60, 65, 79, 80–83, 84, 89, 94, 97–98, 151, 154, 156, 158–59, 161, 162–63, 164, 170, 173, 179, 184–99, 237, 261–63, 266, 268

British Guiana, 194n

broadband service, 28, 224–25

Brookings, Robert, 235

Brookings Institution, 235

Brzezinski, Zbigniew, 36

Buck, Pearl, 100

Buddhism, 124, 171, 172

budget deficits, 219, 241–42, 244

Buffett, Warren, 45–46

Bulgaria, 182

Burma, 79, 121, 264, 273

Burns, Ken, 37

Buruma, Ian, 187

Bush, George H. W., 38, 244, 272

Bush, George W., xi, 40, 42, 59, 141, 175, 246–50, 259–60, 264, 266, 270, 272–73, 276, 277

Calcutta, 82–83

Cambodia, 9

Canada, 32, 225–26

Canary Wharf, 103

cannons, 69, 73

Cantor, Mickey, 246

capital, 21, 24–25, 32, 66–67, 70n, 93–94, 137, 151–52, 200, 201–2, 215–16, 218, 219–22, 228

capitalism, 21–23, 24, 27, 32, 47, 61, 74, 93–94, 99, 105–7, 113–15, 120, 152–53, 157, 167, 187, 192–93, 200–202, 219–22

Capra, Frank, 85

Cardoso, Fernando Henrique, 259

Caribbean, 79

Caryl, Christian, 91–92

casinos, gambling, 3, 98

Castañeda, Jorge, 252

caste system, 74, 180–81

Cathedral and John Connon School, 210

Catholic Church, 124

cell phones, 22, 27, 87, 104, 224

cement, 103–4

Center for International Development and Conflict Management, 8

Central America, 284

Central Asia, 52

central banks, 36, 127

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 166

central planning, 106–17, 149–50, 152

Centre for European Reform, 207–8

Chamberlain, Joseph, 194n

Chaudhuri, Nirad, 171

Chávez, Hugo, 6, 19

Chechnya, 12

chemicals industry, 192

Cheney, Dick, 59, 247, 274

Chen Shuibian, 135

Chia, Rosalind, 211

Chicago, 103

“Chicago Boys,” 24

Chile, 3, 19, 24, 252

Chimerica, 140

China, 31, 100–144

African policy of, 129–32, 270

agriculture in, 65, 71–72, 100, 106, 112, 136

ancient civilization of, 73

Asian policy of, 132–36, 143, 173, 176–77, 267

as “asymmetrical superpower,” 142–44

automobiles in, 33, 110

banking system of, 106, 107, 109, 110, 127, 153

British influence in, 81

capitalism in, 105–7, 153

Central Bank of, 127

central planning in, 106–17, 149–50, 152

coal power in, 34