The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (39 page)

5. Kasparov, “The Chess Master and the Computer.”

6. Evan Esar,
20,000 Quips & Quotes
(Barnes and Noble, 1995), p. 654.

7. Kevin Kelly, “Better than Human: Why Robots Will—and Must—Take Our Jobs,”
Wired
, December 24, 2012.

8. Zara’s approach is described in more detail in a Harvard Business Case Study by Andy and two colleagues: Andrew McAfee, Vincent Dessain, and Anders Sjöman, “Zara: IT for Fast Fashion,” Harvard Business School, 2007 (Case number 604081-PDF-ENG).

9. John Timbs, “The Mirror of Literature, Amusement, and Instruction (London: John Limbird, 1825),” p. 75.

10. Sugata Mitra, “Build a School in the Cloud,”
TED
, video on TED.com, February 2013, http://www.ted.com/talks/sugata_mitra_build_a_school_in_the_cloud.html.

11. Ibid.

12. Peter Sims, “The Montessori Mafia,”
Wall Street Journal
, April 5, 2011, http://blogs.wsj.com/ideas-market/2011/04/05/the-montessori-mafia/.

13. Richard Arum and Josipa Roksa,
Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses
(Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2010); Richard Arum, Josipa Roksa, and Esther Cho, “Improving Undergraduate Learning: Findings and Policy Recommendations from the SSRC-CLA Longitudinal Project,” Social Science Research Council, 2008, http://www.ssrc.org/publications/view/D06178BE-3823-E011-ADEF-001CC477EC84/.

14. Ernest T. Pascarella and Patrick T. Terenzini,
How College Affects Students: A Third Decade of Research
, 1st ed. (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2005), 602.

15. Michael Noer, “One Man, One Computer, 10 Million Students: How Khan Academy Is Reinventing Education,”
Forbes
, November 19, 2012, http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelnoer/2012/11/02/one-man-one-computer-10-million-students-how-khan-academy-is-reinventing-education/.

16. William J. Bennet, “Is Sebastian Thrun’s Udacity the Future of Higher Education?”
CNN
, July 5, 2012, http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/05/opinion/bennett-udacity-education/index.html.

17. David Autor, “The Polarization of Job Opportunities in the U.S. Labor Market: Implications for Employment and Earnings,” Brookings Institution, April 2010, http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2010/04/jobs-autor.

18. Catherine Rampell, “Life Is O.K., If You Went to College,”
Economix
blog,
New York Times
, May 3, 2013, http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/03/life-is-o-k-if-you-went-to-college/.

19. Catherine Rampell, “College Degree Required by Increasing Number of Companies,”
New York Times
, February 19, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/20/business/college-degree-required-by-increasing-number-of-companies.html.

20. Meta Brown et al., “Grading Student Loans,”
Liberty Street Economics
blog, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, March 5, 2012, http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2012/03/grading-student-loans.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+LibertyStreetEconomics+(Liberty+Street+Economics).

21. Tim Hornyak, “Towel-folding Robot Won’t Do the Dishes,”
CNET
, March 31, 2010, http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-10471898-1.html.

22. Nate Silver,
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t
, 1st ed. (New York: Penguin, 2012).

Chapter 13
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

1. “Employment Level,”
Economic Research—Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
(U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 2, 2013), http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNU02000000.

2. Claudia Goldin and Lawrence F. Katz,
The Race Between Education and Technology
(Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2010).

3. “PISA 2009 Key Findings,”
OECD
, http://www.oecd.org/pisa/pisaproducts/pisa2009/pisa2009keyfindings.htm (accessed August 12, 2013).

4. Martin West, “Global Lessons for Improving U.S. Education,” September 29, 2011, http://www.issues.org/28.3/west.html.

5. Marcella Bombardieri, “Professors Take Lessons from Online Teaching,”
Boston Globe
, June 9, 2013, http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2013/06/08/professors-take-lessons-from-online-teaching/K5XTNA8N1cVGLQ8JJW5PCL/story.html (accessed August 19, 2013).

6. Raj Chetty, John N. Friedman, and Jonah E. Rockoff, “The Long-Term Impacts of Teachers: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood,” NBER Working Paper (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2011), http://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/17699.html.

7. Ray Fisman, “Do Charter Schools Work?,”
Slate
, May 22, 2013, http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/the_dismal_science/2013/05/do_charter_schools_work_a_new_study_of_boston_schools_says_yes.single.html (accessed August 12, 2013).

8. Olga Khazan, “Here’s Why Other Countries Beat the U.S. in Reading and Math,”
Washington Post
, December 11, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2012/12/11/heres-why-other-countries-beat-the-u-s-in-reading-and-math/ (accessed August 12, 2013).

9. See, for instance, Miles Kimball’s praise of the “Knowledge is Power Program”: “Confessions of a Supply-Side Liberal,” July 23, 2012, http://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/27813547755/magic-ingredient-1-more-k-12-school (accessed August 12, 2013).

10. B. Holmstrom and P. Milgrom, “Multitask Principal-Agent Analyses: Incentive Contracts, Asset Ownership, and Job Design,”
Journal of Law, Economics & Organization
7, no. 24 (1991).

11. Joseph Alois Schumpeter,
The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry Into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle
(Piscataway, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 1934).

12. Ibid., p. 66.

13. Press Release, “U.S. Job Growth Driven Entirely by Startups, According to Kauffman Foundation Study,” Reuters, July 7, 2010, http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/07/07/idUS165927+07-Jul-2010+MW20100707.

14. John Haltiwanger et al., “Business Dynamics Statistics Briefing: Job Creation, Worker Churning, and Wages at Young Businesses,” SSRN Scholarly Paper (Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network, November 1, 2012), http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2184328.

15. “Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurial Activity,” Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, 2012, http://www.kauffman.org/research-and-policy/kauffman-index-of-entrepreneurial-activity.aspx.

16. Vivek Wadhwa, AnnaLee Saxenian, and Francis Daniel Siciliano, “Then and Now: America’s New Immigrant Entrepreneurs,” Part 7, Stanford Public Law Working Paper No. 2159875; Rock Center for Corporate Governance at Stanford University Working Paper No. 127, SSRN Scholarly Paper (Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network, October 1, 2012), http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2159875.

17. Leora Klapper, Luc Laeven, and Raghuram Rajan, “Entry Regulation as a Barrier to Entrepreneurship,”
Journal of Financial Economics
82, no. 3 (2006): 591–629, doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.09.006.

18. “Research and Development: Essential Foundation for U.S. Competitiveness in a Global Economy,” in
A Companion to Science and Engineering Indicators 2008
(National Science Board, January 2008), http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/nsb0803/start.htm.

19. In her new book,
The Entrepreneurial State
, Mariana Mazzucato nicely illustrates this point, noting that each of the core technologies in Apple’s breakthrough iPhone were based on government-funded research, including cellular telephony, the Internet, GPS, microchips, capacitive sensors, the touchscreen, and even Siri. See Mariana Mazzucato,
The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths
(New York: Anthem Press, 2013).

20. If that fact made you worry that you may owe back royalties from your public performance at that restaurant last week, you may be in luck. The two million dollars a year in licensing fees collected by the owner of the “Happy Birthday” copyright is being challenged and may be overturned. See Jacob Goldstein, “This One Page Could End The Copyright War Over ‘Happy Birthday,’ ” NPR, June 17, 2013, http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/06/17/192676099/this-one-page-could-end-the-copyright-war-over-happy-birthday.

21. This list is drawn from Tom Kalil’s Grand Challenges presentation. A copy is available at http://www2.itif.org/2012-grand-challenges-kalil.pdf (accessed August 9, 2013). See also “Implementation of Federal Prize Authority: Progress Report” by the U.S. Office of Science and Technology Policy, March 2012, available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/competes_report_on_prizes_final.pdf (accessed September 18, 2013).

22. For a detailed list, see the appendix of McKinsey and Company, “And the Winner Is . . . ” Research Report, 2009, http://mckinseyonsociety.com/downloads/reports/Social-Innovation/And_the_winner_is.pdf (accessed September 18, 2013).

23. “2013 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure,” ASCE, 2013, http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/a/#p/home (accessed August 12, 2013).

24. See Matthew Yglesias, “The Collapse of Public Investment,”
Moneybox
blog,
Slate
, May 7, 2013, http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/05/07/public_sector_investment_collapse.html (accessed August 12, 2013); and the underlying data at “Real State & Local Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment, 3 Decimal,”
Economic Research—Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
(U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis, July 31, 2013), http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SLCEC96.

25. “Siemens CEO on US Economic Outlook,”
CNBC
, March 14, 2013, http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000154454 (accessed August 12, 2013).

26. John Maynard Keynes,
The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money
, October 21, 2012, http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/k/keynes/john_maynard/k44g/.

27. Peter B. Dixon and Maureen T. Rimmer, “Restriction or Legalization? Measuring the Economic Benefits of Immigration Reform,” Cato Institute, August 13, 2009, http://www.cato.org/publications/trade-policy-analysis/restriction-or-legalization-measuring-economic-benefits-immigration-reform (accessed December 14, 2012); Robert Lynch and Patrick Oakford, “The Economic Effects of Granting Legal Status and Citizenship to Undocumented Immigrants,” Center for American Progress, March 20, 2013, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2013/03/20/57351/the-economic-effects-of-granting-legal-status-and-citizenship-to-undocumented-immigrants/ (accessed August 12, 2013).

28. David Card, “The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market,” Working Paper (National Bureau of Economic Research, August 1989), http://www.nber.org/papers/w3069.

29. Rachel M. Friedberg, “The Impact of Mass Migration on the Israeli Labor Market,”
Quarterly Journal of Economics
116, no. 4 (2001): 1373–1408, doi:10.1162/003355301753265606.

30. Amy Sherman, “Jeb Bush Says Illegal Immigration Is ‘Net Zero,’ ”
Miami Herald
, September 3, 2012, http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/09/01/2980208/jeb-bush-says-illegal-immigration.html.

31. Gordon F. De Jong et al., “The Geography of Immigrant Skills: Educational Profiles of Metropolitan Areas,” Brookings Institution, June 9, 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2011/06/immigrants-singer.

32. “State and County QuickFacts,” United States Census Bureau, June 27, 2013, http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html; Vivek Wadhwa et al., “America’s New Immigrant Entrepreneurs: Part I,” SSRN Scholarly Paper, Duke Science, Technology & Innovation Paper No. 23 (Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network, January 4, 2007), http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=990152.

33. “The ‘New American’ Fortune 500,” Partnership for a New American Economy, June 2011, http://www.renewoureconomy.org/sites/all/themes/pnae/img/new-american-fortune-500-june-2011.pdf.

34. Michael Kremer, “The O-Ring Theory of Economic Development,”
Quarterly Journal of Economics
108, no. 3 (1993): 551–75, doi:10.2307/2118400.

35. Vivek Wadhwa et al., “America’s New Immigrant Entrepreneurs: Part I,” SSRN Scholarly Paper, Duke Science, Technology & Innovation Paper No. 23 (Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network, January 4, 2007), http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=990152; Darrell West, “Inside the Immigration Process,”
Huffington Post
, April 15, 2013, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/darrell-west/inside-the-immigration-pr_b_3083940.html (accessed August 12, 2013).

36. Nick Leiber, “Canada Launches a Startup Visa to Lure Entrepreneurs,”
Bloomberg Businessweek
, April 11, 2013, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-04-11/canada-launches-a-startup-visa-to-lure-entrepreneurs.

37. Greg Mankiw, “Rogoff Joins the Pigou Club,”
Greg Mankiw’s Blog
, September 16, 2006, http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/09/rogoff-joins-pigou-club.html; Ralph Nader and Toby Heaps, “We Need a Global Carbon Tax,”
Wall Street Journal
, December 3, 2008, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122826696217574539.html.

38. P. A. Diamond and E. Saez, “The Case for a Progressive Tax: From Basic Research to Policy Recommendations,”
Journal of Economic Perspectives
25, no. 4 (2011): 165–90.

39. To be more precise, he actually found that on average, higher taxes were correlated with somewhat
faster
growth. See Menzie Chinn, “Data on Tax Rates, by Quintiles,”
Econbrowser
, July 12, 2012, http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2012/07/data_on_tax_rat.html.

Chapter 14
LONG-TERM RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Craig Tomlin, “SXSW 2012 Live Blog Create More Value Than You Capture,”
Useful Usability
, March 12, 2012, http://www.usefulusability.com/sxsw-2012-live-blog-create-more-value-than-you-capture/.

2. Sir Winston Churchill and Robert Rhodes James,
Winston S. Churchill: His Complete Speeches, 1897
–
1963: 1943
–
1949
(Chelsea House Publishers, 1974), p. 7,566.