The Secret Sentry (64 page)

72. Defense Panel on Intelligence,
Report of the Defense Panel on Intelligence
, January 1975, p. 8, partially declassified and obtained by FOIA, by National Security Archive, Washington, DC; Commission
on the Organization of the Government for the Conduct of Foreign Policy (“Murphy Commission”),
Report of the Commission on the Organization of the Government for the Conduct of
Foreign Policy
, vol. 7 (Washington, DC: GPO, 1975), p. 26; CIA,
Intelligence Community Experiment
in Competitive Analysis: Soviet Strategic Objectives: An Alternative View: Report of Team “B”
, December 1976, p. 9, RG-263, NA, CP.

73. Richard Pearson, “Computer Pioneer Seymour Cray Dies,”
Washington Post
, October 6, 1996.

74. Castro background from biographical data sheet, Lawrence Castro, NSA Coordinator for Homeland Security Support, http://www.itoc.usma.edu/workshop/
2002/documents/ Castro_Bio.htm.

75. William R. Corson, Susan B. Trento, and Joseph J. Trento,
Widows
(New York: Crown Publishers, 1989), p. 94.

76. Memorandum, Director, Program Assessment Office, to Assistant Deputy Director for Operations, National Security Agency,
Project HOOFBEAT
, August 26, 1980, p. 1, CREST Collection, Document No. CIA-RDP83M00171R001100150001-9, NA, CP.

77. Examples of SIGINT reporting on Iran after the February 1979 revolution can be found in CIA, National Foreign Assessment
Center, memorandum,
Status of Iranian Armed Forces
, November 7, 1979, CREST Collection, Document No. CIA-RDP81B00401R000500030017-9, NA, CP; CIA, memorandum,
Impact of US Severance of Diplomatic Ties with Iran
, November 30, 1979, CREST Collection, Document No. CIA-RDP81B00401R000500130030-3, NA, CP; CIA, National Foreign Assessment
Center, memorandum,
Iranian Military Readiness
, December 7, 1979, CREST Collection, Document No. CIA-RDP81B00401R000500030012-4, NA, CP; CIA, memorandum,
Current Situation in Iran
, December 31, 1979, CREST Collection, Document No. CIA-RDP81B00401R000500100019-9, NA, CP; CIA, National Foreign Assessment
Center, memorandum,
Iran: Growing Leftist Influence Among Minorities
, January 1980, CREST Collection, Document No. CIA-RDP81B00401R000500160018-4, NA, CP; CIA, National Foreign Assessment Center,
memorandum,
Iran: Decline in Air Force Capability
, May 1980, CREST Collection, Document No. CIA-RDP81B00401R000500030011-5, NA, CP. For Rhyolite satellite collection on Iran,
confidential interviews.

78. CIA,
The Vietnam-Cambodia Conflict
, March 8, 1978, CIA Electronic FOIA Reading Room, Document No. 0000690153, http:// www.foia.cia.gov; Johnson,
American Cryptology
, bk. 3, p. 255.

79. CIA,
Alert Memorandum: China-Vietnam
, January 5, 1979, pp. 1–2, CREST Collection, Document No. CIA-RDP81B00080R001400010002-4, NA, CP.

80. CIA, NSC briefing,
Indochina: China/Vietnam
, February 18, 1979, CREST Collection, Document No. CIA-RDP83B00100R000100030014-8, NA, CP; CIA, Strategic Warning Staff,
Monthly Report to the Director of Central Intelligence
, March 29, 1979, CIA Electronic FOIA Reading Room, Document No. 0000789481, http:// www.foia.cia.gov; CIA, National Foreign
Assessment Center,
The Sino-Vietnamese Border Dispute
, April 1979, CIA Electronic FOIA Reading Room, Document No. 0000789482, http:// www.foia.cia.gov. See also Brian Toohey and
Marian Wilkinson,
The Book of Leaks
(Sydney: Angus and Robertson Publishers, 1989), p. 134; Rear Admiral James B. Linder, USN (Ret.), and Dr. A. James Gregor,
“The Chinese Communist Air Force in the ‘Punitive’ War Against Vietnam,”
Air University Review
, vol. 32, no. 6 (September/ October 1981): p. 77.

81. Toohey and Wilkinson,
Book of Leaks
, pp. 134–35; Desmond Ball, “Over and Out: Signals Intelligence in Hong Kong,”
Intelligence and National Security
, vol. 11, no. 3 (July 1996): pp. 479–80.

82. Confidential interviews with former NSA officials; Gloria Duffy, “Crisis Mangling and the Cuban Brigade,”
International Security
, vol. 18, no. 1 (Summer 1983): p. 71. For navy SIGINT aircraft operating from Guantánamo and Florida, see U.S. Sixth Fleet,
1979 Sixth Fleet Command
History
, p. III-7; U.S. Sixth Fleet,
1980 Sixth Fleet Command History
, p. III-6, both in Operational Archives, Naval Historical Center, Washington, DC.

83. Confidential interviews. See also Raymond Bonner,
Weakness and Deceit: U.S. Policy and El Salvador
(New York: Times Books, 1984), p. 263.

84. David Binder, “Soviet Brigade: How the U.S. Traced It,”
New York Times
, September 13, 1979.

85. Memorandum, Brzezinski to President,
NSC Weekly Report #98
, May 25, 1979, p. 1, NSC Files, Jimmy Carter Presidential Library, Atlanta, GA.

86. CIA, interagency intelligence memorandum, Memorandum to Holders,
Updated Report on Soviet
Ground Forces Brigade in Cuba
, September 18, 1979, p. 2, RG-263, entry 82, box 33, MORI DocID: 14459, NA, CP; Stansfield Turner,
Secrecy and Democracy: The CIA in Transition
(New York: Harper and Row Publishers, 1985), pp. 230–31; Robert M. Gates,
From the Shadows
(New York: Simon and Schuster, 1996), p. 155; Don Oberdorfer, “Chapter I: ‘Brigada’: Unwelcome Sight in Cuba,”
Washington Post
, September 9, 1979; Binder, “Soviet Brigade,”
New York Times
.

87. Newsom,
Soviet Brigade in Cuba
, pp. vii–xii.

88. CIA, interagency intelligence memorandum, Memorandum to Holders,
Updated Report on Soviet
Ground Forces Brigade in Cuba
, September 18, 1979, pp. 2–4, RG-263, entry 82 (A1), box 33, MORI DocID: 14459, NA, CP;
White Paper on the Presence of Soviet Troops in Cuba
, September 28, 1979, pp. 2–3, NSC Files, Jimmy Carter Presidential Library, Atlanta, GA.

89. Memorandum, PB/NSC Coordinator to Director of Central Intelligence,
“Leak” on Soviet Brigade
, October 5, 1979, CREST Collection, Document No. CIA-RDP81B00401R002400100010-7, NA, CP.

90. For an excellent monograph on the U.S. intelligence community’s coverage of events leading up to the Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan, see Douglas J. MacEachin,
Predicting the Soviet Invasion
of Afghanistan: The Intelligence Community’s Record
(Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, April 2002). MacEachin served as the CIA’s deputy director for intelligence
from 1993 to 1995.

91. TCS 3267-79, interagency intelligence memorandum,
Soviet Options in Afghanistan
, September 27, 1979, p. 6, CIA Electronic FOIA Reading Room, Document No. 0000267105, http:// www.foia.cia.gov.

92. CIA, interagency intelligence memorandum,
The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: Implications for
Warning
, October 1980, p. 9, CIA Electronic FOIA Reading Room, Document No. 0000278538, http://www.foia.cia.gov.

93. TCS 3267-79, interagency intelligence memorandum,
Soviet Options in Afghanistan
, September 27, 1979, pp. 6–7, CIA Electronic FOIA Reading Room, Document No. 0000267105, http://www.foia.cia.gov; CIA, interagency
intelligence memorandum,
The Soviet Invasion of Af-
ghanistan: Implications for Warning
, October 1980, pp. 10, 13, CIA Electronic FOIA Reading Room, Document No. 0000278538, http://www.foia.cia.gov; Johnson,
American Cryptology
, bk. 3, p. 252; MacEachin,
Predicting the Soviet Invasion
, p. 13.

94. CIA, interagency intelligence memorandum,
The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: Implications for
Warning
, October 1980, pp. 17–19, CIA Electronic FOIA Reading Room, Document No. 0000278538, http://www.foia.cia.gov; MacEachin,
Predicting the Soviet Invasion
, pp. 19–20.

95. Memorandum, Turner to National Security Council,
Alert Memorandum on USSR-Afghanistan
, September 14, 1979, CIA Electronic FOIA Reading Room, Document No. 0000267104, http:// www.foia.cia.gov.

96. CIA, interagency intelligence memorandum,
The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: Implications for
Warning
, October 1980, pp. 19–20, CIA Electronic FOIA Reading Room, Document No. 0000278538, http://www.foia.cia.gov; MacEachin,
Predicting the Soviet Invasion
, p. 21.

97. Lt. General William J McCaffrey, USA (Ret.),
A Review of Intelligence Performance in Afghanistan
, April 9, 1984, p. 8, CREST Collection, Document No. CIA-RDP86B00269R001100100003-5, NA, CP.

98. Ibid., p. 9.

99. CIA,
DDCI Notes
, January 2, 1980, CREST Collection, Document No. CIA-RDP81B00401R00 0600230018-5, NA, CP; Lt. General William J McCaffrey,
USA (Ret.),
A Review of Intelligence Performance
in Afghanistan
, April 9, 1984, p. 10, CREST Collection, Document No. CIA-RDP86 B00269R001100100003-5, NA, CP; Willis C. Armstrong et al.,
“The Hazards of Single-Outcome Forecasting,” in H. Bradford Westerfield, ed.,
Inside the CIA’s Private World
(New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1995), p. 254; Gates,
From the Shadows
, p. 133; MacEachin,
Predicting the Soviet
Invasion
, p. 33.

100.CIA, Afghan Task Force, intelligence memorandum,
The Buildup of Soviet Forces in Afghanistan
Since 29 November
, December 28, 1979, CREST Collection, Document No. CIA-RDP81B00 401R000600230019-4, NA, CP; CIA,
DDCI Notes
, January 2, 1980, p. 2, CREST Collection, Document No. CIA-RDP81B00401R000600230018-5, NA, CP; Lt. General William J McCaffrey,
USA (Ret.),
A Review of Intelligence Performance in Afghanistan
, April 9, 1984, p. 11, CREST Collection, Document No. CIA-RDP86B00269R001100100003-5, NA, CP. For the Russian perspective,
see Valerie I. Ablazov, “VVS Sovetskoy Armii v perviy god voiny,” undated, http://www.airwar.ru/history/locwar/afgan/vvs/vvs.html.

101. CIA, interagency intelligence memorandum,
The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: Implications for
Warning
, October 1980, CIA Electronic FOIA Reading Room, Document No. 0000278538, http:// www.foia.cia.gov.

102.Johnson,
American Cryptology
, bk. 3, p. 254.

103. “CRYPTOLOG Interviews NSA Employee Gene Becker,”
Cryptolog
, Spring 1996: p. 19.

104.Johnson,
American Cryptology
, bk. 3, p. vii.

10: Dancing on the Edge of a Volcano

1. “Gen. Faurer Named as NSA Director,”
Washington Post
, March 11, 1981; “Director Completes Distinguished Career,”
NSA Newsletter
, April 1985, p. 3, NSA FOIA.

2. NSA OH-09-97, oral history,
Interview with Bobby Ray Inman
, June 18, 1997, p. 5, NSA FOIA; interview with Charles R. Lord; confidential interviews.

3. National Cryptologic School,
On Watch: Profiles from the National Security Agency’s Past 40 Years
(Fort Meade, MD: NSA/CSS, 1986), p. 91, NSA FOIA.

4. Bob Woodward,
Veil: The Secret Wars of the CIA, 1981–1987
(New York: Simon and Schuster, 1987), p. 88; H. D. S. Greenway and Paul Quinn-Judge, “CIA Chief Voices Final Hopes and Fears,”
Boston Globe
, January 15, 1993; confidential interviews.

5. CIA, interagency intelligence assessment,
Ramifications of Planned US Naval Exercise in the
Gulf of Sidra: 18–20 August 1981
, August 10, 1981, p. 1, DDRS.

6.
1981 Command History, USS Caron
, pp. 1–3, Ships Histories Division, Naval Historical Center, Washington, DC; David C. Martin and John Walcott,
Best Laid Plans
(New York: Harper and Row, 1988), p. 72; Daniel P. Bolger,
Americans at War
(Novato, CA: Presidio Press, 1988), p. 179.

7. Confidential interviews; Jay Peterzell,
Reagan’s Secret Wars
(Washington, DC: Center for National Security Studies, 1984), p. 69; Woodward,
Veil
, pp. 165–67, 409; Martin and Walcott,
Best Laid
Plans, pp. 72–73.

8. Raymond Bonner,
Weakness and Deceit: U.S. Policy and El Salvador
(New York: Times Books, 1984), p. 263; Woodward,
Veil
, pp. 164, 229, 251; Steven Emerson,
Secret Warriors
(New York: G. P. Putnam’s Sons, 1988), pp. 87–88; Raymond Tate, “Worldwide C3I and Telecommunications,” p. 37, Seminar on
Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence, Center for Information Policy Research, Harvard University, 1980; Joan
Edwards, “Reagan’s Charges ‘Total Untruths,’ Ex-CIA Man Says,”
Toronto Globe and Mail
, June 29, 1984; David Johnston and Michael Wines, “Intelligence Material on Sandinistas Is Said to Have Involved Lawmakers,”
New York Times
, September 15, 1991; Scott Shane and Tom Bowman, “Catching Americans in NSA’s Net,”
Baltimore Sun
, December 15, 1995.

9. For RC-135 missions, see Dick van der Aart,
Aerial Espionage
(Shrewsbury, UK: Airlife Publishing, 1984), pp. 93, 154–57; Captain Rosa Pasos, “Report on Military Aggression Against Nicaragua
by U.S. Imperialism,” in Marlene Dixon, ed.,
On Trial: Reagan’s War Against Nicaragua
(San Francisco: Synthesis Publications, 1985), p. 49; Marlise Simons, “Nicaragua Lists U.S. ‘Violations’ in Bitter Reply to
Reagan Speech,”
New York Times
, May 2, 1983; Todd Ensign, “Viewpoints: The First Refusal of Military Duty over Nicaragua,”
Newsday
, July 7, 1987; “Spying Over Nicaragua Revealed,”
Washington Times
, July 10, 1987. For C-130 SIGINT missions, see Dr. Dennis F. Casey and Msgt. Gabriel G. Marshall,
A Continuing Legacy: USAFSS–AIA, 1948–
2000: A Brief History of the Air Intelligence Agency and Its Prede cessor Organizations
(San Antonio, TX: Headquarters Air Intelligence Agency, History Office, 2000), p. 28. Fred Hiatt, “U.S. Said Planning More
Exercises for Latin America: One Site to Be El Salvador,”
Washington Post
, October 26, 1984. For use of SIGINT to target AC-130 gunships, see transcript, “The Pentagon Turned Its Back on Them,”
60 Minutes
, May 21, 1995.