Authors: Alex Carrick

Three Scoops is a Blast! (19 page)

BOOK: Three Scoops is a Blast!

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Estimates are made about the variable rate such that the total payments back and forth add up to a zero sum game. Nobody wins or loses, in theory. In practice, the forecasts of the variable rate are rarely exactly right and who wins or loses depends on who makes a better assessment about the accuracy of the forecast. At the moment, the city is paying Golden Fleece a fixed rate of interest and Golden Fleece is paying the city a variable rate based on the Consumer Price Index.

LOUISE: You keep on amazing me chief. Your grasp of economics is astonishing. You may be in the wrong profession.

CHIEF: It isn’t rocket science. It’s more a means to an end and, in this instance, a means to spot possibly criminal behavior.

LOUISE
(with a little moisture accumulating on her brow)
: Don’t you find it warm in here?

CHIEF: Not especially. You’re the economist who advised the city to accept Golden Fleece’s proposal to tie its variable rate payments to the Consumer Price Index. The swap was established as a zero sum game as long as the inflation rate averages 2.5% over the length of the contract. Above that figure, the city wins. Below it, the finance company wins.

LOUISE: That’s right. That was my recommendation.

CHIEF: But the actual inflation rate for the past several years has averaged less than 2.5% and the amount Golden Fleece has been paying to the city has fallen short of expectations. That amounts to significant sums of money over the longer time.

LOUISE: Yes, I overestimated how prices would perform.

CHIEF: I did some research. The consensus of economists at the time the inflation forecast was made was pretty good, about 2.0% going out five years. It further turns out that in the PowerPoint presentations you were making at the same time, 2.0% was the forecast you were using.

LOUISE: I think I see where you’re going with this. But may I point out you’re overlooking a substantial and highly publicized initial payment Golden Fleece made to the city. Everyone, including the media and the man in the street was pleased.

CHIEF: That was simply to bedazzle the members of the Finance Committee. They saw the easy money and that was all the incentive they needed to sign on. All questions ceased. The fixed rate in the contract was adjusted to take into account the front-end loading and the payments have been proceeding as planned ever since. The advantage to Golden Fleece grows with every year.

LOUISE: And this leads you to conclude what?

CHIEF: I’m sorry, but my job is to be suspicious. Again, I’m wondering where the new affluence of the mayor’s family is coming from. I’m thinking there may be a cozy behind-the-scenes retainer relationship with Golden Fleece. Perhaps I should put more resources into studying the matter?

LOUISE: Let’s talk about what I might do to ease your worries.

CHIEF: Aw, you’re offering me dessert. Very well, then, the polls indicate your husband is sure to win next month. I’m thinking I’ve done about all I can for our community. I would like to offer my services to the state. I’m sure there are some special law-and-order initiatives your husband would like to see implemented. In time, I might even like to run for Attorney General. It would be good to have the backing of the man in charge. How do these options sound?

LOUISE: You’ve proven yourself to be a clever and resourceful honey-loving bear, Chief. My husband and I might very well have need for a man with your special investigative abilities on our team. I’ll take your proposition to the mayor, but I’m pretty sure he’ll like the sound of it.

CHIEF: That’s what I thought you might say. How about an aperitif to cap our meal?

LOUISE: Yes, please, I’ll have sambuca. But Chief, I must say, you perplex me. Do I truly believe what you have set out today will be the end of your ambitions? I think not. That would be naïve of me.

Forever Running Late

May 1, 2010

For all her flustered outward appearance, Jilal was a deep thinker. Single, aged 32, a brunette well-above average in appearance and living in an eco-friendly home halfway between the citizens on ground level and those perched high above, she was having a typical day off.

Mid-morning and her heart was already pounding. Too much to do. She’d be meeting Bobex in an hour to hook up with friends and attend the big game. After that would be a sumptuous meal in some new hot spot within the trendy entertainment district. It was nice to have a break from the work week but the racing only banked around a corner, it didn’t stop.

Yesterday, her control freak of a boss pushed too hard. Jilal could deal with her employer’s tirades under most circumstances, but the recent episode shifted the problem from being at the fringe to taking over centre stage. It would need to be dealt with. The thought of the coming confrontation made her stomach rumble. A hard lump of consternation sat undigested in her gut.

Then there was Bobex. He was a nice guy, but was that enough? He was already the sixth serious relationship in her short life. He was too heavily into sports. Bobex had another problem she wasn’t supposed to know about, gambling. She’d learned of that flaw from a friend of a friend of hers. Jilal wasn’t above tossing the dice herself. She might do better with a lucky seventh.

All of her friends were facing similar dilemmas. No-one seemed to be in a settled relationship. What was the matter with everyone? Jilal thought she knew what the problem was. The speed of everything was over the top. There was no time available to nurture the soul. Nor was it easy to change. There were too many responsibilities and commitments that needed attention.

What required focus right now was her appearance. She turned to the potions, perfumes and unguents lined up in her bathroom. For a few blessed moments, she would be able to escape by soaking in bath salts tinged with jasmine, cucumber or sandalwood. Then she’d choose between the aromatic and timeless pleasures of lavender, vanilla and strawberry-based perfumes.

It was all too fast and confusing. Jilal longed for a sabbatical from life. She thought back to her parents. Had they coped any better? Not really. They separated when Jilal was five and then moved on to several new and sputtering match-ups. The latest advances in technology might have made all gratifications instantaneous, but these fell short when it came to elevating the spirit.

How had things managed to spin out of control? She did the math. Every century encapsulated three or four generations. A thousand years ago would be a distance of 30 to 40 generations. That didn’t seem like so much. Were men and women evolving in any special way? It wasn’t obvious.

Humankind was geographically on the move, there was no doubt about that. Her great-great grandparents had participated in a legendary migration to find a better life. Those ancestors deserved credit for their courage and tackle-the-frontier sense of adventure.

What was life like for people long-ago? Everyday activities were surely simpler then than now. There must have been more time for contemplation and soul replenishment. Jilal let her speculations wander. She became more envious as her imagination took over.

Then her mind snapped back to the present. Lodged in the year 3010, Jilal was running late for her luncheon appointment. Living on one of the moons of Saturn, thoughts of long-ago bliss on mother earth were a lapse into luxury she really couldn’t afford.

About the Author

Alex Carrick has been a professional economist covering the construction industry for the past 38 years. He writes extensively on economic matters for several newsletters, newspapers and the Internet, dealing with both Canada and the United States.

He is currently enjoying his 25th year of employment with Reed Construction Data – CanaData. When asked how he has managed to achieve such career longevity, he is fond of replying, “I’ve done it one day at a time.”

Mr. Carrick received an M.A. in Economics from the University of Toronto (U of T) in 1971. He also completed the first year towards a Doctorate while living at U of T’s Massey College.

He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the Canadian, United States and world economic and construction outlooks. Mr Carrick has also made videos on various topics for Reed Construction Data web sites. This has required the development of a whole new skill set.

Mr. Carrick lives in Toronto, Canada and is married with three children, plus a dog and a cat that round out the household. Much of the family’s life revolves around the cottage on Georgian Bay. Mrs. Carrick (Donna) is also an author, mainly in the crime-writing field.

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