When China Rules the World (93 page)

92
. Measured in terms of GDP exchange rates. It is over twice as large measured by GDP purchasing power parity;
The Economist, The World in 2007
(London: 2006), pp. 106-7.

93
. Gideon Rachman, ‘Welcome to the Nuclear Club, India’,
Financial Times
, 22 September 2008.

94
. Jo Johnson and Edward Luce, ‘Delhi Nuclear Deal Signals US Shift’,
Financial Times
, 2 August 2007.

95
. Garver,
Protracted Contest
, pp. 376-7.

96
. Charles Grant, ‘India’s Role in the New World Order’,
Centre for European Reform Briefing Note
(September 2008).

97
. Roger Cohen, ‘Nuclear Deal With India a Sign of New US Focus’,
International Herald Tribune
, 4-5 March 2006; Rajan Menon and Anatol Lieven, ‘Overselling a Nuclear Deal’,
International Herald Tribune
, 7 March 2006; John W. Garver, ‘China’s Influence in Central and South Asia: Is It Increasing?’, in Shambaugh,
Power Shift
, p. 223.

98
. Dominique Moisi, ‘Europe Must Not Go the Way of Decadent Venice’,
Financial Times
, 12 July 2005.

99
. For example, Zaki Laïdi, ‘How Europe Can Shape the Global System’,
Financial Times
, 30 April 2008.

100
. Katinka Barysch with Charles Grant and Mark Leonard,
Embracing the Dragon: The EU’s Partnership with China
(London: Centre for European Reform, 2005), p. 77.

101
. Ibid., pp. 44-5.

102
. Patrick Messerlin and Razeen Sally, ‘Why It is Dangerous for Europe to Bash China’,
Financial Times
, 13 December 2007.

103
. European Commission, ‘The Challenge to theEUof a Rising China’, in
European Competitiveness Report
(Luxembourg: 2004).

104
. In the Italian general election in 2008, growing fears about globalization, amongst other things, were reflected in very big increases in the vote for the anti-globalization, anti-immigration Lega Nord in Milan, Turin, Venice, Bo logna and Florence; Erik Jones, ‘Italy’s Bitterness Could Blight Berlusconi’,
Financial Times
, 16 April 2008.

105
. Charles Grant with Katinka Barysch,
Can Europe and China Shape a New World Order?
(London: Centre for European Reform, 2008), especially pp. 10-13; also Chapter 3
.

106
. Ibid., pp. 38-40; James Kynge,
China Shakes the World: The Rise of a Hungry Nation
(London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 2006), pp. 82-92, 118-9, 213.

107
. Barysch, Grant and Leonard,
Embracing the Dragon
, p. 67.

108
. Ibid., pp. 60-65.

109
. Shell,
Shell Global Scenarios to 2025
, pp. 126, 144; François Heisbourg, ‘Eu rope Must Be Realistic about Life After Bush’,
Financial Times
, 6 February 2008; Philip Stephens, ‘A Futile European Contest for Obama’s Ear’,
Financial Times
, 10 November 2008.

110
. James Mann,
The China Fantasy: How Our Leaders Explain Away Chinese Repression
(New York: Viking, 2007), p. 40.

111
. Shambaugh, ‘Return to the Middle Kingdom?’, in Shambaugh,
Power Shift
, p. 28; Bates Gill, ‘China’s Evolving Regional Security Strategy’, in Shambaugh,
Power Shift
, p. 248.

112
. Quoted by Joseph Y. S. Cheng and Zhang Wankun, ‘Patterns and Dynamics of China’s Strategic Behaviour’, in Zhao,
Chinese Foreign Policy
, p. 196.

113
. For example, Liu Ji, ‘Making the Right Choices in Twenty-first Century Sino-American Relations’, in ibid., p. 248.

114
. For example, David M. Lampton,
Same Bed, Different Dreams: Managing US
-
China Relations, 1989
-
2000
(Berkeley: University of California Press, 2001), pp. 372-3.

115
. David M. Lampton, ‘China’s Rise in Asia Need Not Be at America’s Expense’, in Shambaugh,
Power Shift
, p. 314.

116
. Zheng Yongnian,
Discovering Chinese Nationalism in China
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999), p. 150.

117
. Quoted by Suisheng Zhao in
A Nation-State by Construction: Dynamics of Modern Chinese Nationalism
(Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2004), pp. 35-6.

118
. Steven I. Levine, ‘Sino-American Relations: Practicing Damage Control’, in Samuel S. Kim, ed.,
China and the World: Chinese Foreign Policy Faces the New Millennium
, 4th edn (Oxford: Westview Press, 1998), pp. 94-5.

119
. Ibid., p. 98.

120
. Ibid., p. 93.

121
. Ibid., p. 97.

122
. Cheng and Zhang, ‘Patterns and Dynamics of China’s Strategic Behaviour’, p. 200; Mann,
The China Fantasy
, pp. 3, 84-8.

123
. Lampton,
Same Bed, Different Dreams
, pp. 372-3.

124
. Suisheng Zhao, ‘Chinese Foreign Policy’, in Zhao,
Chinese Foreign Policy
, p. 15.

125
. Levine, ‘Sino-American Relations’, p. 95; Mann,
The China Fantasy
, pp. 1-2.

126
. Ibid., pp. 11-12.

127
. George W. Bush, ‘A Distinctly American Internationalism’, speech at Ronald Reagan Library, Simi Valley, California, 19 November 1999.

128
. Thomas I. Friedman,
The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization
(New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 1999), p. 154.

129
. Mann,
The China Fantasy
, p. 12.

130
. Levine, ‘Sino-American Relations’, p. 96.

131
. Ibid., pp. 96-7.

132
. Robert Ross, ‘Engagement in US China Policy’, in Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross, eds,
Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power
(London: Routledge, 1999), p. 179.

133
. Lampton, ‘China’s Rise in Asia Need Not Be at America’s Expense’, p. 318;
National Security Strategy of the United States of America
(Washington, DC : September 2002); Martin Jacques, ‘The Neo-Con Revolution’,
Guardian
, 31 March 2005.

134
. Image of US Falls Again’,
International Herald Tribune
, 14 June 2006; ‘Un ease About Big Powers “Rising”’, 27 June 2007, posted on
www.bbc.co.uknews
; ‘Distrust of US Gets Deeper But Not Wider’,
International Herald Tribune
, 28 June 2007.

135
. Interview with Shi Yinhong, Beijing, 26 August 2005.

136
. Robert Ross, ‘Engagement in US China Policy’, pp. 179-80.

137
. Kenneth Lieberthal, ‘Why the US Malaise over China?’,
YaleGlobal Online
, January 19 2006.

138
. Mann,
The China Fantasy
, Chapter 1.

139
. Friedman,
The Lexus and the Olive Tree
, pp. 372-3.

140
. ‘Red States and Blue Collars’,
Financial Times
, 3 August 2007. Hilary Clinton has expressed doubts about whether the Doha round should be revived; ‘Clin ton Doubts Benefits of Doha Revival’,
Financial Times
, 2 December 2007. There has been a major shift amongst mainstream economists, with growing scepticism about the virtues of globalization; Dani Rodrik, ‘The Death of the Globalization Consensus’, July 2008, posted on
www.project-syndicate.org
.

141
. Clyde Prestowitz, ‘The Yuan Might Shift; the Imbalances Won’t’,
International Herald Tribune
, 1 June 2005; Prestowitz,
Three Billion New Capitalists
, p. 193.

142
. Kynge,
China Shakes the World
, pp. 220-21.

143
. Mann,
The China Fantasy
, pp. 59-63.

144
. David Pilling, ‘The President-Elect Must Ease Asian Anxieties’,
Financial Times
, 5 November 2008.

145
. Pew Global Attitudes Project,
World Publics Welcome Global Trade
-
But Not Immigration
, 4 October 2007, posted on
http://pewglobal.org
, p. 14.

146
. For respective figures for the number of science and engineering graduates and doctorates in China and the US, with the latter comparing unfavourably, see Prestowitz
, Three Billion New Capitalists
, pp. 132-4. Also, David M. Lampton, ‘What Growing Chinese Power Means for America’, hearing before the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, East Asian and Pacific Affairs Sub-committee, 7 June 2005, pp. 4, 6.

147
. Kynge,
China Shakes the World
, pp. 108-14, 117-21, 212-13.

148
. Martin Jacques, ‘The Death of Doha Signals the Demise of Globalisation’,
Guardian
, 13 July 2006.

149
. Lampton, ‘China’s Rise in Asia Need Not Be at America’s Expense’, p. 321.

150
. Martin Jacques, ‘America Faces a Future of Managing Imperial Decline’,
Guardian
, 16 November 2006, and ‘Imperial Overreach Is Accelerating the Global Decline of America’,
Guardian
, 28 March 2006.

151
. Lampton, ‘China’s Rise in Asia Need Not Be at America’s Expense’, p. 322.

152
. Ibid., p. 317.

153
. Ibid.

154
. Jeffrey Sachs, ‘Amid the Rubble of Global Finance, a Blueprint for Bretton Woods II’,
Guardian
, 21 October 2008.

155
. Quoted in Lampton, ‘China’s Rise in Asia Need Not Be at America’s Expense’, p. 318.

156
. Joseph S. Nye, ‘Soft Power and the War on Terror’, in
Shell Global Scenarios to 2025
, p. 80.

157
. For example, Vice-President Cheney’s warnings about Chinese military spending in February 2007, ‘Cheney Warns on Chinese Build-up’, 23 February 2007, posted on
www.bbc.co.uk/news
; ‘Rice Assails China on Australia Trip’,
International Herald Tribune
, 17 March 2006.

158
. The Pentagon has described China as the country with the ‘greatest potential to compete militarily’ with the US; ‘Pentagon Sees China as Rival’,
Financial Times
, 5 February 2006.

159
. Peter H. B. Godwin, ‘Force and Diplomacy: China Prepares for the Twenty-first Century’, in Kim,
China and the World
, p. 188.

160
. Yu Bin, ‘China and Russia: Normalizing Their Strategic Partnership’, p. 240; David Lague, ‘Russia-China Arms Trade Wanes’,
International Herald Tribune
, 3 March 2008.

161
. ‘An Aircraft Carrier for China?’,
International Herald Tribune
, 31 January 2006. Major General Qian Lihua, director of the Ministry of Defence’s Foreign Affairs Office, said in an interview that the world should not be surprised if China builds an aircraft carrier but that Beijing would use such a vessel only for offshore defence;
Financial Times
, 16 November 2008.

162
. China’s military spending will increase by almost 18 per cent in 2007 and rose by 14.7 per cent in 2006, but until recently the growth of military spending did not keep pace with GDP growth; ‘Sharp Rise in China’s Military Spending’,
International Herald Tribune
, 5 March 2007. Most outside estimates place Chinese military spending along with that of the UK, Japan and Russia. See also, Muire Dickie and Stephen Fidler, ‘China Aims to End US Navy’s Long Pacific Dominance’,
Financial Times
, 11 June 2007.

163
. Lampton, ‘China’s Rise in Asia Need Not Be at America’s Expense’, p. 318; Niall Ferguson,
Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire
(London: Allen Lane, 2004), Chapters 1, 2; Robert Kagan,
Dangerous Nation: America and the World 1600
-
1898
(London: Atlantic Books, 2006).

164
. For example, Ferguson,
Colossus
, Chapter 8.

165
. Howard W. French, ‘Is the US Plunging into “Historical Error”?’,
International Herald Tribune
, 1 June 2006; Lampton, ‘What Growing Chinese Power Means for America’, pp. 2-12.

166
. ‘Chinese Fund Takes $5bn Morgan Stanley Stake’,
Financial Times
, 19 December 2007. As of mid December 2007, the Chinese enjoyed stakes of 20%, 9.9%, 10%, 2.6% and 6.6% in Standard Bank, Morgan Stanley, Blackstone, Barclays and Bear Stearns respectively; ‘Morgan Stanley Taps China for $5bn’,
Financial Times
, 19 December 2007. This, of course, was before the credit crunch.

167
. This has already happened in a limited way with China demonstrating its ability to destroy a satellite and then the US doing likewise; ‘Chinese Missile Test Against Satellite Was No Surprise to US’,
International Herald Tribune
, 24 April 2007; ‘US Missile Hits Defunct Satellite’,
Financial Times
, 21 February 2008.

168
. Martin Wolf, ‘Why America and China Cannot Afford to Fall Out’,
Financial Times
, 8 October 2003.

169
. Shell,
Shell Global Scenarios to 2025
, p. 93.

170
. ‘Reaching for a Renaissance: A Special Report on China and Its Region’,
The Economist
, 31 March 2007, p. 13.

171
. Elizabeth C. Economy,
The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China’s Future
(Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2004), Chapter 8; ‘China Wants Others to Bear Climate Curbs’,
International Herald Tribune
, 7 February 2007; ‘Politics Shift as the Planet Heats Up’,
International Herald Tribune
, 7-8 April 2007.

172
. Lampton, ‘What Growing Chinese Power Means for America’, p. 10; Lampton, ‘China’s Rise in Asia Need Not Be at America’s Expense’, p. 321; Kynge,
China Shakes the World
, pp. 160-61.