Why the West Rules--For Now (2 page)

Figure 3.8. The interruptions to social development, 1600
BCE-1900 CE

Figure 3.9. Projected social development, 1700–2100
CE

Figure 4.1. Social development, 14,000–5000
BCE

Figure 4.2. Social development, 5000–1000
BCE

Figure 4.3. Locations in the West mentioned in
Chapter 4

Figure 4.4. The Western International Age kingdoms, c. 1350
BCE

Figure 4.5. Locations in the East mentioned in
Chapter 4

Table 4.1. Major Eastern and Western collapses, 3100–1050
BCE

Figure 5.1. Social development, 1000–100
BCE

Figure 5.2. Locations in the East dating 1000–500
BCE
mentioned in
Chapter 5

Figure 5.3. Locations in the West dating 1000–500
BCE
mentioned in
Chapter 5

Figure 5.4. Climate change in the early first millennium
BCE

Figure 5.5. The Assyrian and Persian empires

Figure 5.6. The Qin Empire

Figure 5.7. The Persian and Roman empires

Figure 5.8. Routes linking East and West in the late first millennium
BCE

Figure 6.1. Social development, 100
BCE
-500
CE

Figure 6.2. Shipwrecks and lead pollution in the Mediterranean, 900–1
BCE

Figure 6.3. The greatest extent of the Han and Roman empires

Figure 6.4. The collapse of the Han Empire, 25–220
CE

Figure 6.5. The Roman Empire in the third century
CE

Figure 6.6. Shipwrecks and lead pollution in the Mediterranean, 1–800
CE

Figure 6.7. The collapse of the Roman Empire, 376–476
CE

Figure 6.8. The divided kingdoms of East and West, 400–500

Figure 6.9. The growth of Christianity and Mahayana Buddhism

Figure 7.1. Social development, 300–1100

Figure 7.2. (a) The states of China in 541; (b) the Tang Empire in 700

Figure 7.3. The Longmen Maitreya Buddha, carved around 700. (Werner Forman Archive, London)

Figure 7.4. The wars of Justinian, Khusrau, and Heraclius, 533–628

Figure 7.5. Empress Theodora of Byzantium, 547. (Scala/Art Resource, NY)

Figure 7.6. The Arab conquests, 632–732

Figure 7.7. Divisions in the Western core, 100
BCE
–900
CE

Figure 7.8. The eleventh-century migrations of the Seljuk Turks and Vikings

Figure 7.9. China around 1000

Figure 8.1. Social development, 1000–1500

Figure 8.2. The Jurchen and Song empires in 1141

Figure 8.3. The Mongol Empire, 1227–1294

Figure 8.4. Zones of trade and travel across Eurasia, c. 1300

Figure 8.5. The Eastern and Western cores c. 100 and 1200

Figure 8.6. The Western core, 1350–1500

Figure 8.7. The fifteenth-century world as seen from China

Figure 8.8. The fifteenth-century world as seen from Europe

Figure 8.9. Footbinding: the slippers and socks of Huang Sheng, 1243. (Taken from Fujiansheng bowuguan, ed.,
Fuzhou Nan-Song Huang sheng mu,
published by Wenwu Chubanshe [Cultural Relics Publishing House], Beijing, 1982)

Figure 8.10. The fifteenth-century world as seen from America

Figure 9.1. Social development, 1400–1800

Figure 9.2. Locations in East Asia mentioned in
Chapter 9

Figure 9.3. Wages of unskilled urban laborers, 1350–1800

Figure 9.4. The Western empires around 1550

Figure 9.5. The conquest of the steppes, 1650–1750

Figure 9.6. Empires and trade around the Atlantic, 1500–1750

Figure 9.7. Kangxi, emperor of China, around 1700. (Scala/Ministero per i Beni e le Attivita culturali/Art Resource, NY)

Figure 9.8. The War of the West, 1689–1815

Figure 10.1. The West’s nineteenth-century industrial revolution

Figure 10.2. Social development, 1–2000
CE

Figure 10.3. Wages of unskilled laborers in London, Florence, and Beijing, 1375–1875

Figure 10.4. Globalization in the nineteenth century

Figure 10.5. Opium sales in Guangzhou, 1730–1832

Figure 10.6. A Chinese view of a British sailor, 1839. (Copyright © Corbis)

Figure 10.7. “The Yellow Peril,” based on an 1895 sketch by Kaiser Wilhelm II. (AKG Images, London)

Figure 10.8. The world at war, 1914–1991

Figure 10.9. The author and his toys, 1964. (Author’s photograph, taken by Noel Morris)

Figure 10.10. The health of U.S. Army veterans, 1910–1988

Figure 10.11. Eastern and Western social development compared, 1900 and 2000

Figure 11.1. Social development, 14,000
BCE
–2000
CE
, plotted on a log-linear graph

Figure 12.1. Projected social development, 1700–2100
CE

Figure 12.2. Instability and water shortages in the twenty-first century

Figure A.1. Energy capture, 14,000
BCE
–2000
CE

Table A.1. Energy capture, 14,000
BCE
–2000
CE

Table A.2. City size, 7500
BCE
–2000
CE

Table A.3. War-making capacity, 3000
BCE
–2000
CE

Table A.4. Information technology, 9300
BCE
–2000
CE

Figure A.2. The implications of 10 percent margins of error in social development

Figure A.3 The implications of 20 percent margins of error in social development

WHY THE WEST RULES—FOR NOW

INTRODUCTION

ALBERT IN BEIJING

London, April 3, 1848
. Queen Victoria’s head hurt. She had been kneeling with her face pressed to the wooden pier for twenty minutes. She was angry, frightened, and tired from fighting back tears; and now it had started raining. The drizzle was soaking her dress, and she only hoped that no one would mistake her shivers for fear.

Her husband was right next to her. If she just stretched out her arm, she could rest a hand on his shoulder, or smooth his wet hair—anything to give him strength for what was coming. If only time would stand still—or speed up. If only she and Prince Albert were anywhere but here.

And so they waited—Victoria, Albert, the Duke of Wellington, and half the court—on their knees in the rain. Clearly there was a problem on the river. The Chinese armada’s flagship was too big to put in at the East India Docks, so Governor Qiying was making his grand entry to London from a smaller armored steamer named after himself, but even the
Qiying
was uncomfortably large for the docks at Black-wall. Half a dozen tugs were towing her in, with great confusion all around. Qiying was not amused.

Out of the corner of her eye Victoria could see the little Chinese band on the pier. Their silk robes and funny hats had looked splendid an hour ago, but were now thoroughly bedraggled in the English rain. Four times the band had struck up some Oriental cacophony, thinking that Qiying’s litter was about to be carried ashore, and four times had given up. The fifth time, though, they stuck to it. Victoria’s stomach lurched. Qiying must be ashore at last. It was really happening.

And then Qiying’s envoy was right in front of them, so close that Victoria could see the stitching on his slippers. There were little dragons, puffing smoke and flames. It was much finer work than her own ladies-in-waiting seemed able to do.