Able One (3 page)

The President sagged back in his chair. “They’re armed with nukes?”

“We’ve got to assume that they are.”

“Hit them now!” the Secretary of Defense urged. “I can get a submarine within range in a few hours. Wipe them out with one missile.”

The President’s eyes never left the image on the screen. “In a few hours they could launch both those missiles.”

“What’s their range?” asked Defense. “Could they hit us?”

The CIA director said, “Our people have identified them as Taepodong-2s. From where they’re sited now they could reach Alaska or Hawaii.”

“The West Coast?” asked the President.

“No, that’s a bit beyond their range.”

The President smiled weakly. “Good. I’m scheduled to give a speech in San Francisco tonight.”

“But they could hit Japan,” said the Security Advisor.

“The Japanese will go apeshit when they see this,”

Defense rumbled, almost as if he was enjoying the thought.

CIA pointed out, “You remember a couple of years ago North Korea launched a whole series of missiles across the Pacific and we didn’t do anything about it.”

“Those were just tests,” said the President.

“Yes, and now they put a bird into orbit. We’ve got to assume those other two missiles they’ve got on their pads won’t be tests, either. They could hit Hawaii, the Philippines, even northern Australia.”

“Screw Australia,” the Defense Secretary snapped. “They could wipe out Honolulu! We’ve got to take them out!” Banging a fist on the arm of his chair, Defense insisted, “We’ve
got to!”

“And start World War III?” the Secretary of State countered. “How do you think the Chinese would react if we hit North Korea?”

“Hell, their satellites have been knocked out, too.”

The President asked, “What do the Chinese have to say about this?”

State hesitated a fraction of a moment, then replied, “It’s been difficult communicating with them. The satellites are down and we don’t have a direct cable link with Beijing.”

“They’re being inscrutable, I bet,” said Defense, allowing himself a tight smile.

“They have a fleet of nuclear missiles with the range to reach every city in the United States,” the Secretary of State said firmly.

The CIA director spoke up again. “Do we want to take the risk of starting World War III? A nuclear war?”

“I do not,” said the President.

“But those missiles,” the Security Advisor said, jabbing an accusing finger at the wall screen. “They’re going to fire them. And soon, before Pyongyang’s troops can reach the site.”

Turning to the Homeland Security director, the President said, “How soon can you get Hawaii and Alaska alerted?”

Homeland Security looked startled. He had formerly been the head of one of the nation’s largest construction companies, known to the media as a can-do kind of executive who wasn’t afraid to roll up his sleeves and get his hands dirty.

“We’re talking about evacuating Honolulu?” he asked.

“And Anchorage, maybe Juneau.”

“On a half hour’s notice,” added Defense.

The former construction executive shook his head. “We’d have to start right now.”

“That’s going to cause quite a panic,” State pointed out.

“But you can’t evacuate a city the size of Honolulu in half an hour!” Homeland Security said, almost pleading. “You’ve got to start right away. Now.”

“Wait a minute,” the President said. “What about our missile defense system?”

All eyes turned to the Secretary of Defense, who shifted uneasily in his chair. He and the President had cut funding for missile defense every year they’d been in office.

“Um ... the system’s still in a test and evaluation stage.” Defense temporized.

“I was told it was operational,” said the President.

“It was declared operational...” Defense let the implications hang in the air.

“You mean we couldn’t shoot down those missiles if the North Koreans launch them?”

“When
they launch them,” the Security Advisor corrected.

“Can we shoot them down or can’t we?” the President demanded.

Defense answered with a shrug and said, “We can try. But we certainly couldn’t stop a full-scale Chinese attack.”

“There’s the Russians, too,” the CIA director pointed out.

The President raised both hands, silencing them all.

After a moment’s thought, he said, “We will activate our missile defense system. And alert our own retaliatory forces: missiles, submarines, and the manned bombers.”

“Defense Readiness Condition Three?” asked Defense.

“DefCon One,” said the President. “Let’s not waste time on this. Full alert, everybody ready to go.”

Before anyone could object, the President turned to the Secretary of State. “Let Beijing and Moscow know our moves are strictly defensive. Tell Tokyo what’s going on. Maybe they’ll want to attack that missile site. That way we could keep our hands clean.”

“I wouldn’t depend on that,” the Security Advisor muttered.

The President went on, “But we will
not
make an attack on North Korea. Not yet. We’ll give Pyongyang the opportunity to clean their own house. Our moves will be strictly defensive.”

“And when those two nukes are launched?” asked the Security Advisor.

“We’ll hope to hell we can shoot them down,” the President replied. “And if we can’t, if they hit an American city, we’ll blow those fuckers off the face of the earth.”

Dead silence in the Oval Office.

Then the Secretary of Defense muttered, “Maybe we ought to get the chaplain in here.” The President glowered at him.

They rose and left the Oval Office, all except the chief of staff, who got up from the couch by the fireplace and settled in one of the emptied chairs in front of the President’s desk.

“It’s a mess, Norm, isn’t it?” said the President.

“Yeah, but I think you’re doing the right thing.”

The President shook his head. “I wonder. Why’d they knock out all the satellites?”

“Economic terrorism. Wall Street’s shut down. Markets all over the world have closed.”

“Damn. I’ll have to work this into tonight’s speech.”

“In San Francisco? You’re still going?”

“I won’t cancel it,” the President said. Then, rubbing at the bridge of his nose, he added, “My wife wanted to go with me, but I told her I’d only be there for a few hours.”

“The First Lady will be safer here,” the chief of staff agreed. “You would be, too, you know.”

“No, I’ve got to go,” the President said. “There’s enough panic out there, with all the satellites out. My job is to show the people that everything’s under control.”

“Even when it isn’t?”

The President flashed his famous grin. “Especially when it isn’t, Norm. Especially when it isn’t.”

MISSILE DEFENSE BASICS

The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has developed a research, development, and test program focusing on a layered defense system based on the three phases of a ballistic missile’s trajectory: boost, midcourse, and terminal.

Boost Phase Defense

The boost phase is the part of the missile flight from launch until its rocket engines are exhausted and it stops accelerating under its own power. Typically, the boost phase ends at altitudes of 300 miles or less, and within the first 3 to 5 minutes of flight. During this phase, the rocket is climbing against Earth’s gravity.

Intercepting a missile in its boost phase is the ideal solution. We can defend a large area of the globe and prevent midcourse decoys from being deployed by destroying the missile early in its flight. Of the boost phase defenses, the Airborne Laser (ABL) is the most mature.

Midcourse Phase Defense

The midcourse phase of a ballistic missile trajectory allows the longest window of opportunity to intercept an incoming missile: up to 20 minutes. This is the part of the missile’s flight where its engines have stopped thrusting so it follows a more predictable coasting path. The midcourse interceptor and a variety of radars and other sensors have a longer time to track and engage the target compared to boost and terminal interceptors. Also, more than one interceptor can be launched to ensure a successful hit.

A downside to the longer intercept window is that the attacker has an opportunity to deploy countermeasures against a defensive system. The warhead and decoys are detached from the spent rocket stages during the midcourse phase. However, the interceptor and other sensors have more time to observe and discriminate countermeasures from the warhead. The midcourse defense segment has ground-and sea-based elements, including the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) and the sea-based Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (Aegis BMD).

Unlike the Airborne Laser, which fires a beam of light energy to destroy the missile, the midcourse and terminal phase systems employ smaller, high-velocity missiles to strike the incoming warhead; this is known as the “kinetic kill” method.

Terminal Phase Defense

A missile enters the terminal phase when the warhead falls back into the atmosphere. This phase generally lasts from 30 seconds to one minute.

The primary elements in the terminal defense segment are:

Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD),
which will destroy a ballistic missile’s warhead as it transitions from the midcourse to the terminal phase of its trajectory. THAAD consists of four principle components: truck-mounted launchers; interceptor missiles; radars; and command, control, and battle management (C
²
BM). The system has rapid mobility so that it can be airlifted to almost anywhere in the world within hours.

Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3),
the most mature element of the ballistic missile defense system. Built on previous Patriot air and missile defense infrastructure, PAC-3 missiles were deployed to Southwest Asia as part of Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003.

Arrow,
a joint effort between the United States and Israel, provides Israel with a capability to defend its borders and U.S. troops deployed in the region against short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. The system became operational in 2000.

Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS),
a co-developmental program with Germany and Italy to develop an air and missile defense system that is mobile and transportable. Using the combat-proven PAC-3 as a platform, MEADS’ role in ballistic missile defense is to bridge the gap between man-portable systems like the Stinger shoulder-fired missile and the higher levels of the ballistic missile defense system, such as the THAAD system.

Missile Defense Agency
Overview and BMD Basics

Elmendorf Air Force Base

The mess hall was big and crowded, but not as noisy as Harry expected from the size of the place. The rest of his laser team was finishing up their breakfast by the time Harry worked his way down the counter and carried his tray to their table. He could spot them from across the cafeteria by their white Anson Aerospace coveralls, like a cluster of ice floes in a sea of Air Force blue.

“She’s hot, I tell you,” Wally Rosenberg was saying as Harry dragged a chair from the next table and sat down between him and Taki Nakamura.

“What do you think, boss?” Angie Reyes asked. He was a chemical technician, in charge of the volatile mix of iodine and oxygen that powered the big laser. Reyes was a wiry bantam cock of a guy, short, slim, dark-haired. He had replaced Pete Quintana; Rosenberg kidded that the company’s management wanted to keep its quota of Hispanics on the project.

“Think about what?” Harry asked, taking his English muffin and mug of coffee off the tray.

“Our new pilot,” Rosenberg answered. A chemical engineer, Rosenberg always had a sly grin on his long, horsey face. “I say she’s hot.”

Taki Nakamura, the only woman in the team, made a mock scowl at Rosenberg. “You say every woman you see is hot.”

“Not you, Tiki-Taki,” Rosenberg shot back.

“You’d better not. Unless you want your nose stuffed up your butt.”

“Kung fu engineer,” Monk Delany cracked. Everybody laughed, even Rosenberg.

“Colonel Christopher?” Harry replied to Rosenberg’s question. “I just met her last night, same as you guys. I guess she’s good-looking, all right.”

“Well, you’re an eligible bachelor, aintcha?” Rosenberg said, his grin turning into a smirk.

“I’m still a married man,” Harry said. “We’re separated; we’re not divorced yet.”

Delany shook his head. “When are you gonna bite the bullet, Harry? Go through with the divorce, pal. Get on with your life.”

Harry said nothing.

Nakamura asked, “Is the colonel married?”

“Nope,” Rosenberg answered. “I Googled her. She’s in hot water with the Air Force, as a matter of fact. They caught her sleeping with a married guy--some general, no less.”

“Your kind of woman,” Delany said.

“Yeah. A slut,” added Reyes.

Harry decided the banter had gone far enough. “We’ve got work to do. Let’s get moving.”

As they carried their trays to the disposal area, Taki asked, “Did any of you see the northern lights out there? They’re spectacular!”

Delany said, “So that’s what it was! I caught a glimpse just before the sun came up. Then they faded out. I was wondering what those lights were.”

“Well, shit, we
are
in Alaska,” Rosenberg said.

Nakamura shook her head. “They were awful bright. Must be some big flare on the sun to work them up like that. Or something.”

Standing in front of the desk in the cubbyhole of an office that the base commander had given her, Lieutenant Colonel Karen Christopher was not in a happy mood. Bad enough to be exiled to this godforsaken dump in Alaska. Even worse to push the regular pilot of this oversized bus out of his job and into the right-hand seat. He’s already pissed off at me. Now they’ve stuck me with a navigator who’s so inexperienced he looks like a skinny high school kid who’s snuck into Air Force blues.

Her navigator, Lieutenant Eustis Sharmon, was tall, quite lean, with skin the color of dark chocolate. He was standing at attention before Colonel Christopher, who stood a full head shorter than him. Sharmon looked uncomfortable; Christopher felt grouchy.