Authors: Vivek Ahuja
They were running out of time. Chen had made that
very
clear in his last meeting with him.
He looked at his wristwatch and realized that the 19
TH
Fighter Division would have begun deploying to three key airbases north of Tibet by now. The 55
TH
Fighter Regiment, part of the 19
TH
Division, would be deploying detachments of its three fresh J-11 squadrons between Golmud, Urumqi and Wulumuqi airbases.
The problem for Feng was that he was running out of airbases. That might seem surprising until one considered that the Tibetan plateau, because of its very high altitude, is not conducive for fighter operations as sea-level airbases are. This has to do with the thinner density air at these airbases that forces fighters to use ultra-long take-off lengths to allow operations or much reduced payloads over shorter lengths. Chinese sea-level airbases were simply too far out from the battlefields.
This reduced the net effect of the numerical superiority enjoyed by the PLAAF against the IAF. The latter was effectively using its plethora of sea-level airbases on the southern side of the Himalayas to beat the low density Chinese fighter forces over Tibet into submission.
The airborne tanker force was the only support option in such cases. And while the Indians were easily doubling the endurances for their fighter patrols because of the close proximity between the airbases and the AO, it was taking a flight of J-11s three tanker refueling operations simply to bring the aircraft to the AO and allow it to maintain a decent length patrol. So how do you concentrate forces between such widely displaced airbases and light tanker forces?
You don’t
...Feng told his inner voice as he picked at the chicken on his plate with his fork.
And cruise-missiles were not the answer. Not the permanent answer, at any rate. They had to be launched by standoff aircraft and now that the Indians had gained dominance over the skies of southern Tibet, they were thinning out the slow moving cruise-missile barrages with air-to-air missiles before the former could reach their targets. So while some missiles from each barrage were getting through, it was creating an attrition rate far lower than anticipated by Feng and his staff in all pre-war simulations.
And what about the Indians? What would be their response?
Predicting that is the key for us, isn’t it?
Feng put down the fork for the final time and looked out the large glass walls of the dining hall where he could see the last vestiges of orange-pink skies as the sun went below the horizon.
He wiped his hands and got up from the table, invoking looks from several officers eating their food. Feng was lost in his own thoughts. As he walked over to glass walls and stared up, he could see the darkening skies above and the reflection of the dining room behind him in the glass of the windows. He touched the windows and felt the cold outside as the first snowfall of the night was beginning.
He smiled and brought his hands behind his back in the formal stance but continued to stare out. He saw two J-7s lighting up their afterburners as they took to the skies in a paired formation. The fighters quickly switched off the afterburners and disappeared into the starry night sky…
The Indians were not big on the use of cruise-missiles the way his own side was, Feng thought again.
No.
That was not right. It’s not their
willingness
to use cruise-missiles but rather their lack of
ability
to do so. They had no carrier aircraft other than their newly modified Sukhois to hoist the only credible air-launched cruise-missile they had: the Brahmos ALCM.
The problem with this configuration was that each fighter could only carry one of the supersonic missiles during a single sortie. So that meant a flight of several Su-30s configured for the launch role could launch at best perhaps a half-dozen missiles at a time. Better still, doing so required them to move precious heavy fighters away from the air-dominance role and into the strike fighter role at a time when they could least afford it.
By comparison, Feng could deploy six cruise-missiles from a single H-6 and not have to divert his J-11 force into the task. The Brahmos ALCM was a very high-speed missile but with low range and endurance compared with true long-range cruise-missiles. Their subsonic Nirbhay missile was intended to fill this role but had not entered service yet, which was fortunate for Feng and the other PLAAF planners. The Nirbhay, when matured, would become the equivalent of the Chinese CJ-10 Long-Sword GLCMs. The Brahmos ALCM on the other hand was a purely tactical SEAD-specific missile and had been used as such by the Indians.
Then there was the availability of the missiles. The Brahmos ALCM was new to the Indian inventory and had been acquired only a year ago. Production rates in India did not compare well with China and so they had only a few missiles on hand when this war had started.
And for all that they had used this small force of missiles effectively, Feng admitted in a moment of candor. The only reason he was where he was now with this air war was because of the effective use of that small arsenal of missiles against his air-defenses. Once those air-defenses had gone down, the same Indian launch aircraft had returned back to their fighter roles. But the important fact was that the Indians were now mostly out of their small ALCM inventory.
Probably…
Feng thought.
He really didn’t know for sure whether the Indian inventory had been exhausted or not. But the intelligence estimates seemed to suggest it.
So that meant that the Indians would now be forced to depend on their remaining force on multi-role fighters for strike missions against PLAAF airbases and other infrastructure as well as PLA logistics.
Thanks to the massive offensives undertaken by the PLA along the Indian border, the Indians had been forced to allocate their small force of aircraft for the close-air-support role on the frontlines and for hitting PLA targets inside Tibet.
And in doing so they had encountered losses. Not enough to shut them down, but enough so that Feng could breathe easy and instead concentrate on countering Indian fighters.
But that no longer applied now that the ground offensives had lost momentum on both sides.
The Ladakh battlefields were a junkyard of prized weaponry from both sides for net zero gains. Both sides had exhausted their armies in Ladakh. To the east the offensive into Bhutan had made spectacular gains initially but was now bogged down in the mountains and had failed to capture the Bhutanese capital. And the Indians were counter-attacking to take back control. Frankly, the PLA Highland Division that had entered Bhutan from Tibet had failed in its major objectives but had succeeded in one very major objective. It had bogged the Indian forces in the east in a third country and had reduced their strengths in the Chumbi valley where they could otherwise have been used against PLA defenses.
Even more importantly, unlike the Ladakh and Arunachal-Pradesh fronts, the Indians could not allow this war to end while the Highland Division forces were still embedded inside Bhutan.
That
meant they would be focused on that theater from now on. And
that
made them predictable.
An advantage to exploit?
But that was for the CMC in Beijing to consider. On the sharp tactical end of the war, Feng had to accept that he now faced a battered but alive Indian Jaguar and Su-30 strike force licking its wounds…
Feng walked back to the table where the waiters were still waiting near his abandoned food plate. He apologized to them about the wasted food and asked for his uniform coat and cap. A few seconds later an orderly arrived with his winter overcoat with all the ribbons and insignia attached. He put those on and walked out of the room while everybody jerked into a standing attention in the middle of their meals. He did not return their salutes as he left the room.
As he exited the building and felt the biting cold winds outside, he saw his three-car convoy pulling up to take him back to the command center. In planning to have his meal in the peacetime operations buildings here, he had probably risked more than he should have. But he had enjoyed the breath of fresh air as compared with the thermal-controlled air inside his underground operations center.
As he prepared to get into the open door of his black sedan, he saw Major Li jumping out of the second sedan and walking up to him.
“You really should try the food here tonight. It is very good,” Feng said as he buttoned his overcoat.
“Sir, you should
not
be out here. It is not safe!” Li said.
“Yes, yes. I know,” Feng said. “But I needed the fresh air. I should eat alongside the men whom I order into combat every day. It was nice to see what their faces look like. When you get to my level of command, Li, you will understand why that is important.” Li smiled.
“
And?
What was your impression?” he asked Feng.
Feng exhaled a breath of cold air and decided it was time to get into the vehicle. Li got inside with him.
“They looked far fresher than I had hoped. Eager as well!” Feng said as the vehicles started moving. Li nodded and agreed with his CO.
“Indeed,” he said, facing Feng. “The pilots and officers you saw are from the 17
TH
Air Regiment that deployed here as per orders from General Chen after your meeting with him. More are deploying now. And the 19
TH
Fighter Division has moved initial detachments to Golmud and Urumqi airbases!”
Feng turned away from the shaded windows of the vehicle:
“
So!
A lot happened during my meal then!” he said. “But do you think it will be enough, Li?”
“I don’t understand. You
told
General Chen that these units are what you wanted.” Li responded with concern in his voice.
“Indeed I did. But there is a difference between wanting from
choice
and wanting out of
desperation
, is there not? The men I saw today in the dining hall are eager to get into the fight, as well they should be. But they are also not yet bloodied by war. The men from the former J-10 unit here from the 44
TH
Division were also similarly eager. And they had better equipment at hand when they joined the war eight days ago. And they died at the hands of the Indians despite their eagerness. These new units, barring the 19
TH
Division, are second tier at best and will now be facing battle-hardened Indian pilots. What do you expect the outcome to be?” Feng asked neutrally and then looked outside as the convoy went down into the entrance of his command center.
Soon the darkness outside was replaced with lines of yellow lighting along the tunnel. As the end of the tunnel, the cars stopped. Feng turned back to Li:
“Expect the Indians to begin launching strikes against our airbases in Tibet and even here. Put the base on full alert and have a sizeable portion of the available J-7s on immediate launch readiness. The ground offensives in Ladakh will no longer occupy the Indians as we had hoped they would. And their first target will be here. If I were Air-Marshal Bhosale, I would be ordering my planes to strike Kashgar right about now. There is nothing to stop them anymore other than our fighters and the AWACS. And these are the key. Pass the word to the 19
TH
and 26
TH
Division headquarters as well. I want round the clock AWACS and J-11 support for this sector from now on. Understand?”
“Yes sir!” Li said and stepped out of the other door of the car.
Feng stood after getting out and looked at the massive Chinese flag draped on the wall of the Tunnel at the entrance to the operations center.
He nodded at the flag, and the two sentries nearby shared a surprised look amongst themselves.
“Major!” Feng yelled back at Li who was already heading to the entrance gate.
“Sir?” Li said as he stopped just before showing his identification cards to the sentries.
“Where are Generals Chen and Wencang right now?” Feng said as he walked up to the Major near the entrance doors.
“Sir, General Chen is here and getting some sleep,” Li replied. “He said he is not to be disturbed for the next couple of hours. General Wencang is at the Junwei-Kongjun.”
“Wake up General Chen,” Feng said as he pulled Li outside of the hearing radius of the soldiers nearby, “His sleep can wait. And get a meeting set up with Colonel-General Wencang on behalf of General Chen and myself. Coordinate with his adjutant if you have to. Tell them both that I need to talk to them about our air operations in the next few days alongside the 2
ND
Artillery Corps.”
“Sir?”
“Listen to me, Li. This aerial war will go one way or another tonight. But if the Indians lash out at us here, deep inside our own territory as they attempt to destroy our major airbases supporting the Ladakh front, Beijing might take that as a last straw and take control away from the PLAAF high command and hand it over to Colonel-General Liu and his commanders in the 2
ND
Artillery Corps. You understand now?”