Chimera (56 page)

“And what are the chances of that happening?” Ravoof asked.

“Very much possible,” Chakri responded. “By all accounts we have reports that three mainland-based Fighter Divisions are showing increased deployment activities. These could be pegged for movement to the TAR. These units are based off the Taiwan and Korean coastal areas. The fact that China is thinning these forces out is surprising to say the least.”

“Indeed,” the NSA added. “They are definitely keeping very strict tabs on the news about the war for their own populace. The average Chinese out in the paddy field is still under the impression that the war is going well and that they are on the verge of defeating our forces. I suppose if we make some dramatic strides from the military standpoint, we might be able to bring Beijing to the negotiating table. In which case they might consider keeping their intact forces from getting mauled to use them as a negotiating buffer.”  

“I doubt that will happen,” Chakri added.

“What if we declare that we are willing to negotiate an end to this war?” the PM said finally. “I know that is
not
a topic you want to discuss but it’s certainly a topic that I
want
to discuss! If we requested negotiations, would they be willing to talk?”

The PM turned to the UN Ambassador. The latter shook his head:

“Unlikely until they are in a position of advantage on the battlefields. And based on what I have heard just now, that is not the case. They might talk, but they will start with a long list of conditions designed to give them an advantage in the near future on the military side of things.”

“I agree with that.” Ravoof intervened and continued: “With the kind of mess the C-M-C has created for itself on the ground, they are probably very annoyed with us right now and will not allow this war to end until they have reclaimed at least some sense of victory. Right now, they are fully aware that we control most of Chumbi valley and their only ground gains have been inside a third country, Bhutan…”

“Which they invaded preemptively and without provocation!” the UN Ambassador interjected. Ravoof nodded at that addition:

“Right. Which they did without provocation. So even the idea of an end to hostilities is not something Chairman Peng can take to the senior military commanders as a workable option. Bear in mind that the civilian control in China during wartime is purely a façade. By all accounts it is clear to us that the Defense-Minister and Colonel-General Liu are calling the shots over there. And they are not happy.”

“Liu,” Chakri tried to remember that name. “Isn’t he the guy commanding the 2
ND
Artillery Corps?”

“Yes he is,” the NSA added quietly.

“2
ND
Artillery Corps?” the PM asked.

“Their nuclear forces,” the NSA explained and the PM grew even more worried…  

“But
surely
they know they can’t win now? So what’s the point? What can they do?” the PM asked incredulously

Chakri leaned forward from his chair: “The point is that they are going to up the ante to try and push us into the corner.”

“Nuclear weapons?” the Home-Minister asked.

“Why not?” Chakri replied as he leaned back in his chair. “I would be at least considering that if I were in Beijing right now. The question is whether they are willing to initiate a nuclear exchange to win a border war!”

“Border war?!” the NSA grunted. “I think
this
stopped being a border war days ago. Expect the Chinese to start flexing their nuclear muscles pretty soon. I would say within the next forty-eight hours.”

“I agree,” Chakri added.

The PM leaned forward on the table and rubbed his eyes.

“And what about Pakistan?” the Home-Minister asked Ravoof.

“Hard to say,” Ravoof noted. “They couldn’t intervene on the conventional side of the war without taking the wrath of the White-House. Add to that the chaotic situation in their own country with the Taliban bogging down large chunks of their army in the last year.”

“But if this war goes nuclear,” Chakri added, “expect them to dip their spoon into the cauldron to try and finish us off once and for all. No matter how thinly spread and combat ineffective their conventional forces are, their nuclear forces are always clean and ready. They won’t stop at using them no matter what Washington might or might not say.”

“So what you are telling me,” the PM leaned forward, “is that the more we push towards victory, the more the chances of nuclear fallout?”

INDIAN OCEAN

FIVE HUNDRED KILOMETERS EAST OF SRI-LANKA

DAY 8 + 1030 HRS

“What’s the word?”

Vive-Admiral Surakshan asked as he stepped into the combat-information-center or CIC, as it was called. The Captain of the aircraft-carrier Vikramaditya was standing inside with his arms crossed. He turned to see the admiral walk up next to him and handed him the printout:

“From naval headquarters.”

‘ALL NAVAL FORCES UNDER TASK-FORCE-VICTOR ARE TO ENGAGE UNRESTRICTED WARFARE AGAINST ALL CHINESE NAVAL AND MERCHANT SHIPPING FORCES IN THE INDIAN OCEAN THEATER OF OPERATIONS PURSUANT TO ACHIEVING BLOCKADE OF ESSENTIAL ECONOMIC AND WAR SUPPLIES.

COMMANDER, TASK-FORCE-VICTOR IS ORDERED TO ENGAGE IN MINIMAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES DURING THESE OPERATIONS AS WELL AS NON-COMBATANT NATION SHIPPING IS
NOT
TO BE ENGAGED.

TASK-FORCE-X-RAY WILL CONTINUE DETERRANT OPERATIONS AGAINST ANY PAKISTANI SUB-SURFACE THREATS THAT MAY EMANATE.

GOOD HUNTING AND GIVE THEM HELL.

-COMMANDER, NAVAL OPERATIONS’

Surakshan smiled as he handed the note back to the Captain: “Looks like the gloves are off, old boy.”

He looked at the tactical map of the region on the digital pedestal in front of him. It was showing where his naval task-force was placed relative to nearby territories and friendly forces. On his left flank, the tri-services-command at Andaman and Nicobar islands was effectively sealing off the Malacca straits for the last week. On his right flank, Task-Force-X-Ray was screening for Pakistani submarines south of Sri-Lanka in case they decided to be foolish enough to run interference for the PLAN. His battle-group of surface ships was currently steaming south, right into the world’s diversionary merchant shipping routes…

His main targets were the Chinese merchant shipping and oil-tankers. He would sink the former and capture the latter as opportunities presented themselves. The PLAN had a couple of ships acting as escorts for their merchant force from the middle-east to the South China Sea. But they were not the real threat to his force.

No. They are not the big fish around here!

His real threat was a flotilla of Chinese warships that had left port a few days ago and was now entering the Indian Ocean after having bypassed the Malacca Strait via the Bali Sea. They were currently steaming west and were three hundred kilometers north-west of Christmas Island. Indian satellites had been tracking this fleet ever since it left port.

It was made up of five major surface ships, including two formidable Type-052C Air-Defense Destroyers and three Sovremenny class Guided-Missile Destroyers. Then there were the auxiliary and support ships in the group, adding to a total of about twelve ships. Their Varyag aircraft-carrier was not in the group and had not left port: the Chinese had not yet developed operational capability in their carrier air-wings.

Surakshan could understand that, given his own naval aviation past. One just doesn’t raise an
effective
naval air-wing for a carrier battle-group by buying a carrier and some planes. It takes time, training and experience. The Chinese naval commanders were not going to commit something that could not add value to a fight, and which, at its worst, could become a liability on the other surface warriors in the fleet.

Not to mention a very high value target and very visible loss of face in case that thing went down to the bottom of the ocean…

Surakshan smiled. The Chinese fleet commander was not stupid. He had probably requested leaving the carrier behind. The rest of his ships were heavy-hitters and worthy to commit into battle. Besides, the PLAN had trained on these vessels for many years and was confident.

We shall damn well see, won’t we?

Surakshan threw back the color-enhanced satellite imagery of the Chinese ships from a few hours ago…

His main problem was that he would have to deal with this threat before he could deal with his primary objective of shutting down the Chinese merchant shipping. Time was of the essence. He could not afford to take forever to deal with the Chinese fleet. The war was escalating on the mainland and the sooner he could apply some pressure on the arteries with a naval blockade, the better.

It was quite obvious that for the Chinese to attempt any naval engagements with his fleet, they would have to bypass Malacca and thereby make a long roundabout trip to get here. In doing so, they were also effectively cut off from land based air-support. And their subs were busy fighting with Indian naval ASW forces in the Malacca Strait.

Surakshan’s fleet was fighting with their back towards home waters and extensive support. He had land-based air-support from both the islands as well as long-range air-support by P-8I and older Tu-142M maritime patrol aircraft.

The only thing he did not have was effective airborne radar coverage. The lone No. 50 Squadron of the IAF was already spread very thin over the Himalayas fighting the PLAAF fighters and missiles. It was thin enough that large gaps existed in the airborne coverage even on
that
front, not counting the border with Pakistan. There were no airborne-radar aircraft to spare for the navy given such acute shortage of aircraft. 

So the navy had to depend on its force of Ka-31 AEW helicopters to provide airborne control for the Vikramaditya’s air-group as well as mid-course cueing for its anti-ship missiles. Not ideal on that front by any means. But it was something.

Surakshan had his fleet of twenty warships split into a carrier support group and a destroyer group screening ahead about fifty kilometers south. This latter group consisted of two Delhi-class guided-missile destroyers: the INS Delhi and INS Mysore. Also in the group were the Rajput-class ships INS Rana and INS Ranjit and the P-17 stealth warships Shivalik, Satpura and Sayhadri. He had held back the INS Ranvir as a personal shotgun for his carrier group while INS Mumbai was the Flagship of the X-Ray group. INS Deepak and Jyoti were also steaming with the carrier.

Several hundred kilometers south, a single P-8I aircraft was flying south to meet up and maintain constant long-range contact with the Chinese surface group just outside the range of the 052C warships. 

Surakshan wondered what the Chinese ISR capabilities were. He knew they had Ka-31 AEW helicopters just like his own. He also knew they were using satellites just like he was. But while he could maintain round-the-clock eyes on their ships using the P-8s and the Tu-142s, they had no such capabilities. And Surakshan knew the disadvantages of satellite based fleet monitoring because he was dealing with those as well. With just satellite intelligence available to the Chinese fleet commander, there was no way from them to know
exactly
where the Indian ships were until they made some sort of direct sensor contact, leaving their knowledge outdated by at least an hour to two, if not more.

Perhaps an advantage lay there? 

KASHGAR AIRBASE

SINKIANG AUTONOMOUS REGION

CHINA

DAY 8 + 1200 HRS

“How do we close this gap?” Chen asked, referring to the destruction of the two S-300 batteries near Shigatse and Lhasa by Indian ALCMs.

Feng walked over to the geographical-overlay display of the Tibet autonomous region. All airbases and ground-based air-defense units were highlighted on the map. Next to each airbase marker the list of deployed units at the base were listed in smaller fonts. Feng waved over his adjutant, PLAAF Major Kwan Li. 

“Do you have the latest SOFOR?” Feng asked Li without looking away from the display board. Li handed him a set of papers and Feng walked over to the table to pick up his spectacles. Putting them on, he glanced at the papers and frowned a few seconds later. The latest Status-of-Forces report, or SOFOR, was not good. Feng found it interesting and somewhat amusing that the prepared document did not show losses of aircraft and crews, but the
availability
of units and readiness levels.

Somebody’s idea of putting a positive spin on things!

Feng knew the pre-war availability and readiness levels of these units at the back of his mind. So he merely subtracted the current availability from the pre-war status and got an idea of what their losses were. The positive presentation approach of the report was obviously
not
meant for him and Chen. It was meant to be fed to the higher ups in Beijing. He exhaled after going over the numbers and walked back to the board where Chen was standing, his arms crossed.     

“Not good,” Feng said finally. “Our pre-war Lanzhou J-11 force is pretty much decimated. 6
TH
Fighter Division only has enough left for defensive patrols protecting tankers and bombers from the 36
TH
Bomber Division and the special mission aircraft from the 26
TH
Air Division.”