Dragonfire (38 page)

‘John Chiu, the Prime Minister of Singapore, is on the telephone,’ said Wada’s long-serving personal assistant, whose desk was in the far corner of his large office.

‘John, I can imagine the purpose of this call,’ said Wada in English.

‘Taiwan,’ said Chiu. ‘Our analysts believe China will attack within two hours.’

‘I have the same reading.’

‘I have just come out of an emergency Cabinet meeting and some members are listening in to this telephone call. Our conclusion was this. For many years our founding Prime Minister was of
the view that Japan could never take the mantle of the main regional power in East Asia. However, China’s policies in the recent years have made us uneasy about this view. The events of the
past few days have led us to conclude that Singapore would support a strategic pact between India and Japan in Asia. Also we would remain politically neutral should you decide to defend the
stability of East Asia in whatever manner you thought right during this current Taiwan crisis. Some time within the next half-century, we will see the American security umbrella close. We believe
that now is the time to establish an Asian security umbrella, and we want to see it done not with one power, China, but with two – Japan and India. As you know, Singapore is predominantly
Chinese and there will be domestic difficulties with our new thinking. This is why we will be muted in our public support, until we can sustain it. I’m sure you understand.’

Minutes after Wada had finished his call from John Chiu, Hari Dixit was on the line from Delhi. ‘Prime Minister, this is a humbling call for me, but a frank one. It is also too late in the
day, but in present circumstances that is beside the point. You have often approached us informally for closer ties and we have responded with insular arrogance. India has been an inward-looking
nation, living on a false premise that it was a great country simply waiting for its time to come. We have had a jolt of reality in the past week and that is why I am calling you.’

‘A call from the Prime Minister of India is always welcome,’ said Wada.

‘I believe the international community would support an alliance between our two democracies. I believe that right now it would support action against China. We will hit them on our
eastern flank and win back Burma for the free world. We will support vigorously any action you take to contain China in its efforts to keep Taiwan.’

Military Headquarters, Western Hills, China

Local time: 0900 Tuesday 8 May 2007
GMT: 0100 Tuesday 8 May 2007

General Leung Liyin,
the Chinese Defence Minister, was speaking in front of a wall map of the Taiwan Straits. President Tao was in the room, together with Tang Siju, and
senior military officials. Jamie Song had not been asked to the briefing.

‘80302 Unit of the Second Artillery will launch the DF-15 missile strike from the Huangshan 52 Base here in Jiangxi province. The launch control and command HQ will be with the 815th
Brigade at Leping. We have an inventory of 150 missiles for the operation which are now being moved to pre-surveyed launch sites in Jiangxi and Fujian provinces. Unit 80301 in Shenyang in Liaioning
province, just here, is on a high alert should we have to strike Okinawa. We hope this will not be necessary. We would use the DF-21 missile and the launch site would be here in Tonghua, just north
of the Korean border.’

‘Do you believe, comrade General, that we can defeat Taiwan, or merely use a missile strike as a means to get Lin to withdraw his declaration of independence?’

‘If we decided to settle the issue once and for all, we would have to take action against the enemy’s early warning radar sites, the SIGINT facilities, the command and control
centres and power plants. If we did it swiftly in a single mortal blow [
zhiming daji
] we would need airstrikes and Special Forces operations. The first targets would be Taiwan’s
twenty-five early warning radar stations, which we would hit with anti-radiation missiles launched from aircraft. We would send Special Forces into some sites, such as the Chuan Kang Airbase. We
have built a replica of the base in Gansu and have trained extensively to prepare for such an assault. We would also have to shoot down Taiwan’s airborne early warning systems, which have
taken off in the past hour. The enemy has eight key military airfields which we would have to take out; runways, barracks and control towers. Even if we succeed in shutting down the early warning
apparatus, the command and control structure, the key missile sites and the airfields, we would only briefly have control of Taiwanese airspace. This first wave of operation would be fifteen
minutes at best, but with both missile strikes and disruption of communication, we could complicate the enemy’s response. We would follow it with a much bigger second wave, with
precision-guided bombs which we hope would neutralize both the air-defence system and the command structure. This could be achieved within forty-five minutes. With control of the skies, we could
impose a no-fly zone around Taiwan – including American aircraft – and then impose a sea blockade around the island. I would not suggest a land invasion, because it would be drawn out
and costly.’

‘Are you recommending it, comrade General?’ said Tao.

General Leung was silent for what seemed to be an interminable amount of time. Then he said: ‘No. It is the only way it can be done, but it is over-optimistic. We have two elements to
consider. The first is that five years from now Taiwan will have a fully tested theatre missile-defence system. We are developing sophisticated jamming and chaff devices to confuse the enemy, but
it would be far more difficult to conduct the plan I have just outlined. In normal circumstances, I would recommend implementing it now. But I am not convinced we have the resources to fight both
in Taiwan and on our western flank with India in Arunachal Pradesh.’

‘Then what is your suggestion?’

Again Leung lapsed into silence. ‘Population centres,’ he finally said. ‘That would force America’s hand and bring Taiwan to its knees.’

The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC

Local time: 2000 Monday 7 May 2007
GMT: 0100 Tuesday 8 May 2007

‘The Taiwanese and
Japanese are giving us full access to their intelligence. Coupled with our own it provides a graphic picture. We have imagery of rail missile
movements in Fujian province,’ said Tom Bloodworth. ‘Fighter aircraft are being flown into bases along the eastern coastline – Shantou, Xiamen, Quanzhou and Fuzhou. There is
evidence of ground troops massing for a seaborne landing on the island chain of Pei-kan, Nan-kan and Pai-chuan, which are controlled by Taiwan.’

‘The Japanese Defence Minister has telephoned saying they are deploying their forces towards the Taiwan Straits, including the helicopter carrier
Osumi
.’

‘Surely they’re not going to get involved?’

‘He gave me the impression that they didn’t mind if they did, providing we were on side,’ said Jebb. ‘Their intelligence analysts anticipate a Chinese missile strike
within the hour.’

‘What targets?’ said Bloodworth.

‘That’s uncertain.’

‘Lin is refusing to call off the celebrations,’ said Holden. ‘I talked to him directly.’

‘John Chiu in Singapore corroborates with the Japanese,’ said Hastings. ‘He is convinced China will take military action.’

‘Sir, we have to announce what we are going to do,’ said Ennio Barber. ‘The sending of a carrier group just isn’t washing on Capitol Hill. They know it won’t be
there in time.’

‘Sorry to interrupt, John,’ said Bloodworth. ‘We are getting reports in about an Indian missile strike on Burma.’

‘The Chinese military there?’

‘It seems to be wider spread, including airstrikes.’ Bloodworth continued reading from the computer screen. ‘Sorry. The report is that the Agni medium-range ballistic missile
is being prepared for launch at a site just north of Calcutta. No indication of its target. The range is 1,600 miles, so it could hit Tibet or Burma. A lighter warhead could take it deep inside
China itself, 2,000 to 2,500 miles range.’

‘Get Hari Dixit on the line,’ snapped Hastings.

‘We’ve also got pictures of a Prithvi missile on a semi-erect mobile launch pad north of Dimapur on India’s eastern tip. There’s bad cloud cover there, so there could be
a lot more of them, say around Tezpur or Imphal. Our ELINT and SIGINT people are picking up a big increase in military air traffic in eastern India. Just about every known airfield under the
north-east military command is on a high alert. A massive influx of fighter and ground-attack aircraft are coming in from the west.’

‘The Indian Prime Minister on the line, Mr President.’

John Hastings took the call on a mobile receiver, standing up, and put the conversation on open speaker. ‘Hari, what are you up to in the east?’

‘We’re going to take back our territory and neutralize the threat posed by Myanmar’s alliance with China.’

‘I’m asking you to hold off. Wait until this Taiwan crisis has died down.’

‘If we don’t act during it, we will be defeated.’

‘All right, Hari. I don’t know if you’ve heard this from your own people, but we believe there’s a Chinese nuclear-armed
Xia
submarine in the Indian Ocean. It can
reach anywhere in India. We’ve got the
Ronald Reagan
carrier group looking for it. Four attack submarines are after it, but it is nowhere near the
Kilo
sub which sank the
Bombay
. No one wants China to launch from that sub. The country’s vulnerable, confused and nervous right now. Do nothing, Hari. Be like Israel in the Gulf War. Take the punches, but
don’t hit back. Help me wind down the crisis and you have my word we’ll work out a comprehensive Asian defence policy which will safeguard all our interests.’

Just before Dixit was able to reply, Bloodworth said: ‘Chinese missile launch on Taiwan. Three, four – no, five launches from the Huangshan 52 base. They would be the
DF-15s.’

Military Headquarters, Western Hills, China

Local time: 1000 Tuesday 8 May 2007
GMT: 0200 Tuesday 8 May 2007

‘Three minutes to
impact,’ said Leung. ‘The enemy’s Patriot missiles have been activated. Four enemy air-defence missiles launched.’ He
turned to President Tao. ‘We have fired sufficient missiles to ensure that we have at least two hits.’

Chiang Kai-Shek Memorial Square, Taipei, Taiwan

Local time: 1000 Tuesday 8 May 2007
GMT: 0200 Tuesday 8 May 2007

The air-raid
sirens began as columns of school-children filed through into Chiang Kai-Shek Memorial Square. The palace at the head of the square, with its white walls
and blue Chinese-style roof, housed a bronze statue of Chiang Kai-Shek. Although defeated by Mao Zedong, he had created this defiant island state which was now admired by Western democracies and
Asian economic tigers alike. Soldiers stood solemnly on guard unaffected by the commotion going on around them. Even when the siren sounded, they did not look up. On either side of the square were
the National Theatre and National Concert Hall and the square itself was used by thousands on special occasions. They gathered in 1992 for the first direct elections to the legislature, in 1996 for
the first presidential elections and now, as Taiwan was about to declare independence, it was only fitting that the occasion be marked in Chiang Kai-Shek Memorial Square. School-children,
unprepared and unrehearsed, some clutching lunch boxes, stood in pairs, holding hands nervously, while their teachers worried about how to arrange them. Officials handed out the red and blue
Taiwanese flag for them to wave and a band started up with a ceremonial regiment from the army. To hold everyone’s attention were huge screens strung up so they could see one from wherever
they were, showing proceedings in the nearby Parliament buildings, where the Legislative Yuan was debating the vote on independence.

A decade earlier, the National Assembly voted by an overwhelming majority of 261 to 8 to eliminate Taiwan’s status as a province of China. By doing so, the Assembly was taking another
tentative step towards complete independence. As a province, Taiwan accepted that it was part of mainland China. It appointed a governor and had its own provincial assembly, and the decision to end
the facade meant severing yet another link of its bothersome relationship with the mainland.

The sirens did not create great consternation in the square. They were a regular element of city life in Taipei, as were the anti-aircraft batteries on the roofs of tall buildings. It was only
when the children saw the streak of a missile flaming skywards and pointed excitedly that the teachers recognized something was wrong. Police from the cordon ran in and began the fruitless task of
herding the children towards an air-raid shelter, and by the time the third Patriot missile had been fired, they were running in terror, but still with discipline, in pairs, holding hands, as they
had been taught to since they were in kindergarten. Then Taiwanese fighter planes screamed overhead, so loud that people put their hands to their ears, and stopped dead in their tracks to watch,
hoping that they alone would save them from the danger in the skies.

As soon as the planes had gone, a shrill electronic screeching came from the big screens around the square. The pictures juddered and you could see panic break out in the Parliament, that
second-long expression on faces, the first instinctive movement of escape, before the screens went to black. Then the square shook. The troops broke formation and ran towards the rumbling noise of
the explosion. Dust and then smoke rose up into view. Teachers and children screamed together, their lunch boxes falling to the ground, some losing their sandals, running, but not sure where, and
then their sounds drowned out by more fighter planes flying low and loud over the centre of the city.

Two Chinese missiles scored a direct hit on the Parliament building, killing dozens of deputies and stopping the debate before the vote on independence had been taken. For President Tao, it was
a constitutional master stroke. He had struck a civilian target at the heart of Taipei, as his military commanders had wanted. The dead were legitimate targets, and the law which would have
embarrassed his presidency more than anything else remained off the statute books.