El cisne negro (63 page)

Floridi, Luciano, The Transmission and Recovery of Pyrrhonism, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2002.

Flyvbjerg, Bent, Mette Skamris Holm y Soren Buhl, «Understanding Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie», American Journal of Planning, vol. 68, n° 3, 2002, .

Fodor, Jerry A., The Modularity of Mind: An Essay on Faculty Psychology, Cambridge, Mass., The MIT Press, 1983 (trad, cast.: La modularidadde la mente, Madrid, Morata, 1986).

Foster, George, «Quarterly Accounting Data: Time-series Properties and Predictive Ability Results», Accounting Review, n° 52, 1977, págs. 1-21.

Fox, M. A. y E Kochanowski, «Models of Superstardom: An Application of the Lotka and Yule Distributions», Popular Music and Society, n° 27, 2004, págs. 507-522. !

Frame, Donald M., Montaigne: A Biography, Nueva York, Harcourt Brace and World, 1965.

Frank, Jerome D., «Some Psychological Determinants of the Level of Aspiration», American Journal of Psychology, n° 47, 1935, págs. 285-293.

Frank, Robert, «Talent and the Winner-Take-All Society», una reseña del libro de Derek Bok The Cost of Talent: How Executives and Professionals Are Paid and How It Affects America, Nueva York, The Free Press, 1993; en The American Prospect, vol. 5, n° 17, 1994, .

Frank, Robert H., Choosing the Right Pond: Human Behavior and the Quest for Status, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1985.

Frank, Robert H. y P. J. Cook, The Winner-Take-All Society: Why the Few at the Top Get So Much More Than the Rest of Us, Nueva York, The Free Press, 1995.

Frankfurter, G. M. y E. G. McGoun, Toward Finance with Meaning: The Methodology of Finance: What It Is and What It Can Be, Greenwich, Conn., JAI Press, 1996.

Freedman, D. A. y P. B. Stark, «What Is the Chance of an Earthquake?», Technical Report 611 del Department of Statistics, Berkeley, University of California, septiembre de 2001, revisado en enero de 2003.

Friesen, Geoffrey y Paul A. Weller, «Quantifying Cognitive Biases in Analyst Earnings Forecasts», documento de trabajo, University of Iowa, 2002.

Frohlich, N., J. A. Oppenheimer y C. L. Eavy, «Laboratory Results on Rawls's Distributive Justice», British Journal of Political Science, n° 17, 1987a, págs. 1-21.

—, «Choices of Principles of Distributive Justice in Experimental Groups», American Journal of Political Science, vol. 31, n° 3, 1987b, págs. 606-636.

Froot, K. A., «The Market for Catastrophe Risk: A Clinical Examination», Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 60, n° 2-3, 2001, págs. 529-571.

Fukuyama, Francis, The End of History and the Last Man, Nueva York, The Free Press, 1992 (trad, cast.: Elfin de la historia y el último hombre, Barcelona, Planeta-De Agostini, 1996).

Fuller, Steve, The Intellectual, Londres, Icon Books, 2005.

Fulton, Alice, «Fractal Amplifications: Writing in Three Dimensions», Thumbscrew, n° 12, invierno de 1998.

Gabaix, X., P. Gopikrishnan, V. Plerou y H. E. Stanley, «A Theory of Power-law Distributions in Financial Market Fluctuations», Nature, n° 423, 2003, pàgs. 267-270.

Gaddis, John Lewis, The Landscape of History: How Historians Map the Past, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2002 (trad, cast.: Elpaisaje de la historia: còrno los historiadores representan elpasado, Barcelona, Anagrama, 2004).

Galbraith, John Kenneth, The Great Crash, 1929, Nueva York, Mariner Books, 1997 (trad, cast.: El crac del29, Barcelona, Ariel, 1993).

Galison, Peter, Einstein's Clocks, Poincaré's Maps: Empires of Time, Nueva York, W. W Norton and Company, 2003 (trad, cast.: Relojes de Einstein, mapas de Poincaré: los imperios del tiempo, Barcelona, Critica, 2005).

Gave, Charles, Anatole Kaletsky y Louis-Vincent Gave, Our Brave New World, Londres, GaveKal Research, 2005.

Gazzaniga, Michael S., The Ethical Brain, Nueva York, Dana Press, 2005 (trad, cast.: Elcerebro ètico, Barcelona, Paidós, 2006).

Gazzaniga, Michael S., R. Ivryy G. R. Mangun, Cognitive Neuroscience: The Biology of the Mind, 2aed., Nueva York, W W. Norton and Company, 2002.

Gazzaniga, Michael S. y Loseph LeDoux, The Integrated Mind, Plenum Press, 1978.

Gehring, W. J. y A. R. Willoughby, «The Medial Frontal Cortex and the Rapid Processing of Monetary Gains and Losses», Science, n° 295, 2002, pàgs. 2.279-2.282.

Gelman, S, A., «The Development of Induction Within Natural Kind and Artifact Categories», Cognitive Psychology, n° 20, 1988, pàgs. 65-95-

Gelman, S. A. y J. D. Coley, «The Importance of Knowing a Dodo Is a Bird: Categories and Inferences in Two-year-old Children», Developmental Psychology, n° 26, 1990, pàgs. 796-804.

Gelman, S. A. y L. A. Hirschfeld, «How Biological Is Essentialism?», en D, L. Medin y S. Atran (comps.), Eolkbiology, Cambridge, Mass., The MIT Press, 1999.

Gelman, S. A. y E. M. Markman, «Categories and Induction in Young Children», Cognition, n° 23, 1986, pàgs. 183-209.

Gervais, Simon yTerrance Odean, «Learning to Be Overconfident», documento de trabajo, University of Pennsylvania, 1999.

Gigerenzer, G., P. M. Todd y el ABC Research Group, Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2000.

Gigerenzer, Gerd., «External Validity of Laboratory Experiments: The Frequency-Validity Relationship», American Journal of Psychology, n° 97, 1984, págs. 185-195.

—, «Survival of the Fittest Probabilist: Brunswik, Thurstone, and the Two Disciplines of Psychology», en L. Krüger, G. Gigerenzer y M. S. Morgan (comps.), The Probabilistic Revolution, vol. 2: Ideas in the Sciences, Cambridge, Mass., The MIT Press, 1987.

—, «From Tools to Theories: A Heuristic of Discovery in Cognitive Psychology», Psychological Review, vol. 98, n° 2, 1991, págs. 254-267.

Gigerenzer, Gerd, J. Czerlinski y L. Martignon, «How Good Are Fast and Frugal Heuristics ?», en T. Gilovich, D. Griffin y D. Kahneman (comps.), 2002.

Gigerenzer, Gerd y D. G. Goldstein, «Reasoning the Fast and Frugal Way: Models of Bounded Rationality», Psychological Review, n° 103, 1996, págs. 650669.

Gigerenzer, Gerd, W. Hell y H. Blank, «Presentation and Content: The Use of Base Rates as a Continuous Variable», Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, n° 14,1988, págs. 513-525.

Gigerenzer, Gerd, U. Hoffrage y H. Kleinbolting, «Probabilistic Mental Models: A Brunswikian Theory of Confidence», Psychological Review, n° 98, 1991, págs. 506-528.

Gigerenzer, Gerd y H. R. Richter, «Context Effects and Their Interaction with Development: Area Judgments», Cognitive Development, n° 5, 1990, págs. 235-264.

Gigerenzer, Gerd, Z. Swijtink, T. Porter, L.J. Das ton, J. BeattyyL. Kriiger, The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1989.

Gilbert, D., E. Pinel, T. D. Wilson, S. Blumberg yT. Weatley, «Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting», en T. Gilovich, D. Griffin y D. Kahneman (comps.), 2002.

Gilbert, Daniel, Stumbling on Happiness, Nueva York, Knopf, 2006 (trad, cast.: Tropezar con la felicidad, Barcelona, Destino, 2006).

Gilbert, Daniel T., «How Mental Systems Believe», American Psychologist, n° 46, 1991, págs. 107-119.

Gilbert, Daniel T., Romin W. Tafarodi y Patrick S. Malone, «You Cant Not Believe Everything You Read», Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, n°65, 1993, págs. 221-233.

Gillespie, John V., reseña del libro de William Ascher Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners, en The American Political Science Review, vol. 73, n° 2, 1979, págs. 554-555.

Gillies, Donald, Phihsophical Theories of Probability, Londres, Routledge, 2000.

Gilovich, T., D. Griffin y D. Kahneman (comps.), Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2002.

Gladwell, Malcolm, «The Tipping Point: Why Is the City Suddenly So Much Safer Could It Be That Crime Really Is an Epidemic?», The New Yorker, 3 de junio de 1996.

—, The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, Nueva York, Little, Brown, 2000 (trad, cast.: La frontera del éxito: cómo los pequeños detalles pueden significar una gran diferencia, Madrid, Taurus, 2006).

—, «Blowing Up: How Nassim Taleb Turned the Inevitability of Disaster into an Investment Strategy», The New Yorker, 22 y 29 de abril de 2002.

Glanzel, W., Bibliometrics as a Research Field: A Course on the Theory and Application of Bibliometric Indicators, publicación preliminar, 2003.

Gleik, James, Chaos: Making a New Science, Londres, Abacus, 1987.

Glimcher, Paul, Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain: The Science of Neuroeconomics, Cambridge, Mass., The MIT Press, 2002.

Goldberg, Elkhonon, The Executive Brain: Frontal Lobes and the Civilized Mind, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2001 (trad, cast.: El cerebro ejecutivo: lóbulos frontales y mente civilizada, Barcelona, Crítica, 2004).

—, The Wisdom Paradox: How Your Mind Can Grow Stronger as Your Brain Grows Older, Nueva York, Gotham, 2005 (trad, cast.: La paradoja de la sabiduría: cómo la mente puede mejorar con la edad, Barcelona, Crítica, 2006).

Goleman, Daniel, Emotional Intelligence: Why It Could Matter More Than IQ, Nueva York, Bantam Books, 1995 (trad, cast.: La inteligencia emocional, Barcelona, Kairós, 2006).

—, Destructive Emotions, How Can We Overcome Them? A Scientific Dialogue with the Dalai Lama, Nueva York, Bantam, 2003 (trad, cast.: Emociones destructivas: cómo entenderlas y superarlas, Barcelona, Kairós, 2003).

Goodman, N., Fact, Fiction, and Forecast, Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press, 1955 (trad, cast.: Hecho, ficción y pronóstico, Madrid, Síntesis, 2004).

—, «Seven Strictures on Similarity», en N. Goodman (comp.), Problems and Projects, Nueva York, Bobbs-Merrill, 1972.

Gopnik, A., C. Glymour, D. M. Sobel, L. E. Schulz, T. Kushnir y D. Danks, «A Theory of Casual Learning in Children: Causal Maps and Bayes Nets», Psychological Review, n° 111, 2004, págs. 3-32.

Granger, Clive W. J., Empirical Modeling in Economics: Specification and Evaluation, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1999 (trad, cast.: Construcción de modelos empíricos en economía, Madrid, Marcial Pons, 2007).

Gray, John, Straw Dogs: Thoughts on Humans and Other Animals, Londres, Granta Books, 2002 (trad, cast.: Perros de paja: reflexiones sobre los humanos y otros animales, Barcelona, Paidós, 2003).

Green, Jack, Fire the Bastards!, Nueva York, Dalkey Archive Press, 1962.

Green, K. C., «Game Theory, Simulated Interaction, and Unaided Judgement for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts: Further Evidence», International Journal of Forecasting, n° 21, 2005, págs. 463-472.

Griffin, D. W. y A. Tversky, «The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of Confidence», Cognitive Psychology, n°24, 1992, págs. 411-435.

Griffin, D. W. y C. A. Varey, «Towards a Consensus on Overconfidence», Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, n° 65, 1996, págs. 227-231.

Gripaios, Peter, «The Use and Abuse of Economic Forecasts», Management Decision, vol. 32, n° 6, 1994, págs. 61-64.

Guedj, Olivier y Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, «Experts' Earning Forecasts: Bias, Herding and Gossamer Information», próxima publicación: 2006.

Gugiielmo, Cavallo y Roger Chartier, Histoire de la lecture dans le monde occidental, Paris, Editions du Seuil, 1997 (trad, cast.: Historia de la lectura en el mundo occidental, Madrid, Taurus, 1997).

Gurvitch, Georges, «Continuité et discontinuité en histoire et sociologie», Annales F. S. C., 1957, págs. 73-84.

—, The Social Framework of Knowledge, Nueva York, Harper Tourchbooks, 1966.

Hacking, Ian, Logic of Statistical Inference, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1965.

—, Representing and Intervening: Introductory Topics in the Philosophy of Natural Science, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1983.

—, The Taming of Chance, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1990 (trad, cast.: La domesticación del azar: La erosión del deterninismo y el nacimiento de las ciencias del caos, Barcelona, Gedisa, 1991).

—, The Social Construction of What?, Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press, 1999 (trad, cast.: ¿I.a construcción social de qué?, Barcelona, Paidós, 2001).

—, An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2001.

Hahn, Frank, «Predicting the Economy», en Leo Howe y Alan Wain (comps.), 1993.

Hannon, L., «Poverty, Delinquency, and Educational Attainment: Cumulative Disadvantage or Disadvantage Saturation?», Sociological Inquiry, n° 73, 2003, págs. 575-594.

Hansen, R. D. yj. M. Donoghue, «The Power of Consensus: Information Derived from One's Own and Others' Behavior», Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, n° 35, 1977, págs. 294-302.

Hardy, G. H., A Mathematicians Apology, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1940 (trad, cast .-.Apología de un matemático,Tits Cantos, Nivola, 1999).

Harris, Olivia, «Braudel: Historical Time and the Horror of Discontinuity», History Workshop Journal, n° 57, 2004, págs. 161-174.

Harvey, N., «Confidence in Judgment», Trends in Cognitive Science, n° 1, 1997, págs. 78-82.

Hasher, L. y R. T. Zacks, «Automatic and Effortful Processes in Memory», Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, n° 108, 1979, págs. 356-388.

Haug, Espen, Derivatives: Models on Models, Nueva York, Wiley, 2007.

Hausman, Daniel M. (comp.), The Philosophy of Economics: An Anthology, 2aed., Nueva York, Cambridge University Press, 1994.

Hayek, E A., «The Use of Knowledge in Society», American Economic Review, vol. 35, n° 4, 1945, págs. 519-530,

—, The Road to Serfdom, Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1994 (trad, cast.: Camifto de servidumbre, Madrid, Alianza 2005).

Hecht, Jennifer Michael, Doubt: A History, Nueva York, Harper Collins, 2003.

Hempel, C., Aspects of Scientific Explanation, Nueva York, The Free Press, 1965 (trad, cast.: La explicación científica: estudios sobre la filosofìa de la ciencia, Barcelona, Paidós, 2005).

Henderson, Bill y André Bernard (comps.), Rotten Reviews and Rejections, Wainscott, NY, Pushcart, 1998.

Hespos, Susan, «Physical Causality in Human Infants», Interdisciplines Conference on Causality, 2006, .