El cisne negro (66 page)

Read El cisne negro Online

Authors: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

BOOK: El cisne negro
8.36Mb size Format: txt, pdf, ePub

Neyman, J., «Frequentist Probability and Frequentist Statistics», Synthese, n° 36, 2000, págs. 97-131.

Nietzsche, Friedrich,
Ecce Homo,
Londres, Penguin Books, 1979 (trad, cast.:
Ecce homo,
Madrid, Alianza, 1998).

Nisbett, R. E., D. H. Krantz, D. H. Jepson y Z. Kunda, «
The Use of Statistical Heuristics in Everyday Inductive Reasoning»
, Psychological Review, n° 90, 1983, págs. 339-363.

Nisbett, Richard E. y Timothy D, Wilson, «
Telling More Than We Can Know: Verbal Reports on Mental Processes»
, Psychological Bulletin, vol. 84, n° 3, 1977, págs. 231-259.

Nussbaum, Martha C., The Fragility of Goodness: Luck and Ethics in Greek Tragedy and Philosophy,
Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1986 (trad, cast.:
La fragilidad del bien: fortuna y ética en la tragedia y la filosofía griega,
Madrid, Antonio
Machado, 1995).

O'Connor, M.
y
M. Lawrence, «
An Examination of the Accuracy of Judgment Confidence Intervals in Time Series Forecasting»
, International Journal of Forecasting, n° 8, 1989, págs. 141-155-

O'Neill, Brian C. y Mausami Desai, «
Accuracy of Past Projections of U. S. Energy Consumption»
, Energy Policy, n° 33, 2005, págs. 979-993.

Oberaúer, K., O. Wilhelm y R. R. Díaz, «
Bayesian Rationality for the Wason Selection Task? A Test of Optimal Data Selection Theory»
, Thinking and Reasoning, vol. 5, n° 2, 1999, págs. 115-144.

Odean, Terrance, «
Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses
b>, Journal of Finance, vol. 53, n° 5, 1998a, págs. 1.775-1.798.

—, «
Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average»
, Journal of Finance, vol. 53, n° 6, 1998b, págs. 1.887-1.934.

Officer, R. R., «
The Distribution of Stock Returns
ti, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 340, n° 67, 1972, págs. 807-812.

Olsson, Erik, J.,
Knowledge and Inquiry: Essays on the Pragmatism of Isaac Levi,
Cambridge Studies in Probability, Induction and Decision Theory Series, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2006.

Onkal, D., J. E Yates, C. Simga-Mugan y S. Oztin, «
Professional and Amateur Judgment Accuracy: The Case of Foreign Exchange Rates»
, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, n° 91, 2003, págs. 169-185.

Ormerod, Paul,
Why Most Things Fail,
Nueva York, Pantheon Books, 2005.

—, «
Hayek, "The Intellectuals and Socialism", and Weighted Scale-free Networks»
, Economic Affairs, n° 26, 2006, págs. 1-41.

Oskamp, Stuart, «
Overconfidence in Case-Study Judgments»
, Journal of Consulting Psychology, vol. 29, n° 3, págs. 261-265.

Paese, P. W. y J. A. Sniezek, «
Influences on the Appropriateness of Confidence in Judgment: Practice, Effort, Information, and Decision Making»
, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, n° 48, 1991, págs, 100-130.

Page, Scott, The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Can Create Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies,
Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 2007.

Pais, Abraham,
Subtle Is the Lord,
Nueva York, Oxford University Press, 1982 (trad, cast.:
El Señor es sutil: la ciencia
y la vida de Albert Einstein,
Barcelona, Ariel, 1984).

Pareto, Vilfredo,
Cours d'économie politique,
Génova, Droz, 1896.

Park,
David,
The Grand Contraption: The World as Myth, Number, and Chance,
Princeton, NJ, Princeton
University
Press,
2005.

Paulos, John Allen,
Innumeracy,
Nueva York, Hill and Wang, 1988 (trad, cast.:
El
hombre
anumérico,
Barcelona, Tusquets, 1990).

—, A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market,
Boston, Basic
Books, 2003 (trad, cast.:
Un matemático invierte en bolsa,
Barcelona, Tusquets, 2004).

Pearl, J.,
Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference,
Nueva York, Cambridge University Press, 2000.

Peírce, Charles Sanders,
Chance, Love and Logic: Philosophical Essays
(1923), Lincoln, University of Nebraska Press, 1998.

—, Philosophical Writings ofPeirce, edición a cargo de J. Buchler, Nueva York, Dover, 1955.

Penrose, Roger,
The Emperor's New Mind,
Nueva York, Penguin, 1989 (trad, cast.:
La nueva mente del emperador,
Barcelona, Grijalbo, 1996).

Pérez, C. J., A. Corral, A. Díaz-Guilera, K. Christensen y A. Arenas, «
On Selforganized Criticality and Synchronization in Lattice Models of Coupled Dynamical Systems»
, International Journal of Modern Physics B, n° 10, 1996, págs. 1.111-1.151.

Perilli, Lorenzo, Menodoto di Nicomedia: Contributo a una storia galeniana della medicina empírica,
Munich, Leipzig, K. G. Saur, 2004.

Perline, R., «
Strong, Weak, and False inverse Power Laws»
, Statistical Science, vol. 20, n° 1, 2005, págs. 68-88.

Pfeifer, P. E., «
Are We Overconfident in the Belief That Probability Forecasters Are Overconfident?»
, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, vol. 58, n° 2, 1994, págs. 203-213.

Phelan, James, «
Who's Here? Thoughts on Narrative Identity and Narrative Imperialism»
, Narrative, n° 13, 2005, págs. 205-211.

Piattelli-Palmarini, Massimo, Inevitable Illusions: How Mistakes of Reason Rule Our Minds,
Nueva York, Wiley, 1994.

Pieters, Rik y Hans Baumgartner, «
Who Talks to Whom? Intraand Interdisciplinary Communication of Economics Journal
s», Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 40, n° 2, 2002, págs. 483-509.

Pinker, Steven,
How the Mind Works,
Nueva York, W. W. Norton and Company, 1997 (trad, cast.:
Cómo funciona la mente,
Barcelona, Destino, 2004).

—, The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature,
Nueva
York, Viking, 2002 (trad, cast.:
La tabla rasa: la negación moderna de la naturaleza humana,
Barcelona, Paidós,
2003).

Pisarenko, V. y D. Sornette, «
On Statistical Methods of Parameter Estimation for Determinisdcally Chaotic Time-Series»
, Physical Review E, n° 69, 2004, pág. 036122.

Plotkin, Henry, Evolution in Mind: An Introduction to Evolutionary Psychology,
Londres, Penguin, 1998.

Pious, S., The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making,
Nueva York, McGraw-Hill, 1993.

—, «
A Comparison of Strategies for Reducing Interval Overconfidence in Group Judgments»
, Journal of Applied Psychology, n° 80, 1995, págs. 443454.

Polanyi, Michael,
Personal Knowledge: Towards a. Post-Critical Philosophy,
Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1958/1974.

Popkin, Richard. H., «
David Hume: His Pyrrhonism and His Critique of Pyrrhonism»
, The Philosophical Quarterly, vol. 1, n° 5,1951, págs. 385-407.

—, «
The Skeptical Precursors of David Hume»
, Philosophy and PhenomenologicalResearch, vol. 16, 1,1955, págs. 61-71,

—, The History of Scepticism: From Savonarola to Bayle, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2003.

Popper, Karl R.,
The Open Society and Its Enemies,
5
a
ed., Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 1971 (trad, cast.:
La sociedad abierta y sus enemigos,
Barcelona, Paidós, 2006).

—, Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge, 5
a
ed., Londres, Routledge, 1992 (trad, cast.: Conjeturas y refutaciones: el desarollo del conocimiento científico, Barcelona, Paidós, 1994).

—, The Myth of the Framework, Londres, Routledge, 1994 (trad, cast.:
El mito
del
marco común: en defensa de la ciencia y la racionalidad,
Barcelona, Paidós, 1997 [reeditado en la colección Surcos en 2005]).

—, The Logic of Scientific Discovery,
15
a
ed., Londres,
Roudedge,
2002a
(trad, cast.:
La lógica de la investigación científica,
Madrid, Tecnos,
1985).

—, The Poverty of Historicism, Londres, Routledge, 2002b (trad, cast.:
La miseria del historicismo,
Madrid, Alianza, 2002).

Posner, Richard A.,
Catastrophe: Risk and Response,
Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2004.

Price, Derek J. de Solla, «
Networks of Scientific Papers»
, Science, n° 149, 2004, págs. 510-515.

—, «
Citation Measures of Hard Science, Soft Science, Technology, and Nonscience»
, en C. E. Nelson y D. K. Pollak (comps.), Communication Among Scientists and Engineers, Lexington, Mass., Heat, 1970.

—, «
A General Theory of Bibliometric and Other Cumulative Advantage Processes»
, Journal of the American Society of Information Sciences, n° 27, 1976, págs. 292-306.

Prigogine, Ilya, The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos, and the New Laws of Nature,
Nueva York, The Free Press, 1996 (trad, cast.:
Elfin de las certidumbres,
Madrid, Taurus, 1996).

Quammen, David,
The Reluctant Mr. Darwin,
Nueva York, W. W. Norton and Company, 2006.

Quine,
W.
V., «
Two Dogmas of Empiricism»
, The Philosophical Review, n° 60, 1951, págs. 20-43 (trad, cast.: «
Dos dogmas del empirismo»
, en Luis Valdés (ed.), La búsqueda
del
significado,
Madrid, Tecnos, 1991).

—, «
Natural Kinds»
, en N. Rescher (comp.), Essays in Honor of Carl
G. Hempel,
Dordrecht, D. Reidei, 1970.

Rabin, M., «
Psychology and Economi
es,», Journal of Economic Literature, n° 36, 1998, págs. 11-46.

Rabin, M. y R. H, Thaler, «
Anomalies: Risk Aversion»
, Journal
of Economic
Perspectives,
vol. 15, n° 1, 2001, págs. 219-232.

Rabin, Matthew, «
Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers»
, documento de trabajo, Economics Department, University of California, Berkeley, 2000, <
http://repositories.cdhb.org/iber/econ/
>.

Ramachandran, V. S., The Emerging Mind, Londres, Portfolio, 2003.

Ramachandran, V. S. y S. Blakeslee,
Phantoms in the Brain,
Nueva York, Morrow, 1998 (trad, cast.:
Fantasmas en el cerebro,
Barcelona, Debate, 1999).

Rancière,
Jacques,
Les mots de l'histoire: Essai de poétique du savoir,
París,
Éditions du Seuil,
1997.

Ratey, John )., A User's Guide to the Brain: Perception, Attention and the Four Theaters of the Brain,
Nueva
York, Pantheon,
2001 (trad,
cast.:
El cerebro: manual de instrucciones,
Barcelona,
Mondadori,
2002),

Rawls, John,
A
Theory of Justice,
Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press, 1971 (trad, cast.:
Teoria
de la justicia, Madrid, Fondo de Cultura Económica, 1997).

Reboul, Anne, «
Similarities and Différences Between Human and Nonhuman Causal Cognition»
, Interdisciplines Conference on Causality, 2006, www.interdisciplines
. org>.

Redner, S., «How Popular Is Your Paper? An Empirical Study of the Citation Distribution», European PhysicalJournalB,n° 4, 1998, págs. 131-134.

Rees, Martin, Our Final Century: Will Civilization Survive the Twenty-first Century?,
Londres, Arrow Books, 2004 (trad, cast.:
Nuestra hora final: ¿será el siglo
xxi
el último de la humanidad?,
Barcelona, Crítica, 2004).

Reichenbach, H.,
Experience and prediction,
Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1938.

Remus, W., M. Oapos Connor y K. Griggs, «
Does Feedback Improve the Accuracy of Recurrent Judgmental Forecasts?»
, actas de las Thirtieth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, 7-10 de enero de 1997, págs. 5-6.

Rescher, Nicholas, Luck: The Brilliant Randomness of Everyday Life, Nueva York, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1995 (trad, cast.: La suerte: aventuras y desventuras de la vida cotidiana, Barcelona, Andrés Beilo, 1997).

—, Paradoxes: Their Roots, Range, and Resolution,
Chicago,
Open
Court
Books,
2001.

Richardson, L. F.,
Statistics of Deadly Quarrels,
Pacific Grove, Calif, Boxwood Press, 1960.

Rips, L., «
Necessity and Natural Categories»
, Psychological Bulletin, n° 127, 2001, págs. 827-852.

Roberts,
Royston
M.,
Serendipity: Accidental Discoveries in Science,
Nueva
York, Wiley,
1989
(trad, cast.:
Serendipia: descubrimientos accidentales de la ciencia,
Madrid,
Alianza,
2004).

Robins, Richard W„ «
Psychology: The Nature of Personality: Genes, Culture, and National Character»
, Science, n° 310, 2005, págs. 62-63.

Rollet, Laurent,
Un mathématicien au Panthéon
?
Autour de la mort de Henri Poincaré,
Laboratoire de Philosophie et d'Histoire des Sciences — Archives Henri-Poincaré, Université Nancy 2, 2005.

Ronis, D. L. y J. F. Yates, «
Components of Probability Judgment Accuracy: Individual Consistency and Effects of Subject Matter and Assessment Method »
, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, n° 40, 1987, págs. 193-218.

Rosch, E. H., «
Principles of Categorization»
, en E. Rosch y B. B. Lloyd (comps.), Cognition and Categorization, Hillsdale, N.J., Lawrence Erlbaum, 1978.

Rosch, E. H., «
Natural Categories»
, Cognitive Psychology, n° 4, 1973, págs. 328350.

Rose, Steven,
The Making of Memory: From Molecules to Mind,
ed. revisada, Nueva York, Vintage, 2003.

Rosen, S., «
The Economics of Superstars»
, American Economic Review, n° 71, 1981, págs. 845-858.

Rosenzweig,
Phil,
The Halo Effect and Other Business Delusions: Why Experts Are So Often Wrong and What Wise Managers Must Know,
Nueva York, The Free Press,
2006.

Other books

Enter the Saint by Leslie Charteris
The Rings of Tantalus by Edmund Cooper
Nøtteknekkeren by Felicitas Ivey
Big Miracle by Tom Rose
Mandie Collection, The: 4 by Lois Gladys Leppard
Shrike (Book 2): Rampant by Mears, Emmie