Foundation Fear (18 page)

She blinked. “Why?”

“I told you of a simple theory of history, one we have operated under for over ten
thousand years. A crude psychohistory. It predicted that the simulations I -- well, we --
suppressed eight thousand years ago would find an audience here.”

“Your theory is that good?”

“As Hari remarks, history repeats itself, but it does not stutter. I knew it was
impossible to erase all copies of simulations, throughout the galaxy. ” He steepled his
hands and peered at them, as if contemplating a structure. “When social ferment develops a
taste for such things, they once more appear upon the menu of history.”

“I am sorry I could not arrange their destruction.”

“There are forces at work here you cannot counter. Do not sorrow for turns of the weather.
Await instead the long, slow coming of the climate.”

Olivaw reached out and touched her hand. She studied his face. Apparently for her ease he
had returned to full facial expression, including consistent movement of his Adam's apple
when he swallowed. Minor computations, but she appreciated the touch.

“I can devote myself solely to his safety, then? Forget the simulations?”

“Yes. They are my matter. I must find a way to defuse their impact. They are robust. I
knew them, used them, long ago.”

“How can they be more stalwart than us? -- than you?”

“They are simulated humans. I am a separate sort. So are you.”

“You were able to be First Minister -- ”

“I functioned as a kind of partial human. That is an insightful way of regarding
ourselves. I recommend it to you.”

“Partial?”

He said gently, “There is much you do not do.”

“I pass as human. I can converse, work -- ”

“Friendships, family, the complex webbing that denotes humans' ability to move from the
individual to the collective, striking a balance -- all these subtle crafts lie beyond us.”

“I don't want to -- ”

“Precisely. You are subtly aimed at your target.”

“But you ruled. As First Minister -- ”

“I had reached my limit. So I left.”

“The Empire ran well under your -- ”

“It decayed further. As Hari expected, and our crude theory failed to predict.”

“And why did you tell Cleon to make him First Minister?” she blurted out.

“He must be in a position which will give him freedom of movement and power to make
corrections in Imperial policies, as he comes to understand psychohistory better. He can
be a temporary stopgap of great potency.”

“It may deflect him from psychohistory itself.”

“No. Hari will find a way to use that experience. One of his facets -- which emerges
strongly in his class of intellect -- is his ability to learn from the seasoning of life.”

“Hari doesn't want the First Ministership.”

“So?” He lifted an eyebrow, puzzled.

“Shouldn't his own feelings matter?”

“We are here to guide humanity, not to let it merely meander.”

“But the danger -- ”

“The Empire needs him. What's more, he needs the Ministership -- though he does not see
that as yet, granted. He will have access to all Imperial data for use in psychohistory.”

“He has so much data already -- ”

“Much more will be needed to make a full running model. He must also, in the future, have
power to act on a grand scale.”

“But 'grand' can be fatal. People like this Lamurk, I am certain he is dangerous.”

“Quite so. But I depend upon you to keep Hari from harm.”

“I find myself getting short of temper, my judgment -- ”

“You are more nearly human in your emulation circuits than I. Expect to bear the burden
that fact implies.”

She nodded. “I wish I could see you more often, ask -- ”

“I move quickly through the Empire, doing what tasks I can. I have not been in Trantor
since I left the First Ministership myself.”

“Are you sure it is safe for you to travel so?”

“I have many defenses against detection of my true nature. You have even more, for you are
nearly natural.”

“I cannot penetrate a full weapons screen around the palace, though?”

Olivaw shook his head. “Their technology exceeded our capacity to disguise quite some
while ago. I evaded it while First Minister because no one dared test me.”

“Then I cannot protect Hari in the palace.”

“You should not have to. Once he becomes First Minister, you will be able to pass with him
through their detectors. Those are only used for major occasions.”

“Until he is First Minister, then -- ”

“His danger is maximum.”

“Very well, I will focus on Hari. I would prefer to leave those simulations to you.”

“I fear they, and Sark, will be quite enough for me to handle. I went to the coliseum in
Junin Sector, saw them run wild. The tiktok issue inflames humans, still -- just as we
want.”

“These Tiktoks, surely they will not approach our levels of cognition?”

His mouth twitched just once. “And why not?”

“Under human guidance?”

“They could quickly rival us.”

“Then our grand designs -- ”

“On the trash heap.”

“I do not like such a prospect, ” she said, face flushed.

“The ancient taboos our kind so labored to put in place are breaking down, perhaps
forever.”

“What does your -- our -- theory of history say?”

“It is not nearly good enough to say anything. Against a background of social stability,
such as this Empire enjoyed for so long, simulations were destabilizing. Now? No one,
human or robot, knows. All parameters are accelerating.” His face slackened, losing all
color and muscle tone, as if from an immense fatigue. “We must turn matters, as much as we
can, over to them -- to the humans.”

“To Hari.”

“Him, most especially.”

Body Politics

FOUNDATION, EARLY HISTORY -- ... first public intimations of psychohistory as a possible
scientific discipline surfaced during the poorly documented early period of Seldon's
political life. While the Emperor Clean set great store in its possibilities,
psychohistory was viewed by the political class as a mere abstraction, if not a joke. This
may have resulted from maneuverings by Seldon himself, who never referred to the subject
by the name he had given it. Even at this early stage, he seems to have realized that
widespread knowledge of psychohistory and any movement founded upon it would enjoy little
predictive success, since many would then be able to act to offset its predictions, or
take advantage of them. Some have “condemned” Seldon as “selfish” for “hoarding” the
psychohistorical method, but one must remember the extreme rapacity of political life in
these waning years ...

-- ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA

Hari Seldon's desksec chimed and announced, “Margetta Moonrose desires a conversation.”

Hari looked up at the 3D image of a striking woman hovering before him. “Um? Oh. Who's
she?” His sec would not interrupt him amid his calculations unless this were somebody
important.

“Cross-check reveals that she is the leading interviewer and political maven in the
multimedia complex -- ”

“Sure, sure, but why is she consequential?”

“She is considered by all cross-cultural monitors to be among the fifty most influential
figures on Trantor. I suggest -- ”

“Never heard of her.” Hari sat up, brushed at his hair. “I suppose I should. Full filter,
though.”

“I fear my filters are down for recalibration. If -- ”

“Damn it, they've been out for a week.”

“I fear the mechanical in charge of the new calibrations has been defective.”

Mechs, which were advanced tiktoks, were failing often these days. Since the Junin riots,
some had even been attacked. Hari swallowed and said, “Put her through anyway.”

He had used filters on holophones for so long, he could not now disguise his feelings.
Cleon's staff had installed software to render the fitting, preselected body language for
him. With some sprucing up by the Imperial Advisors, it now modulated his acoustic
signature for a full, confident, resonant tone. And if he wanted, it edited his
vocabulary; he was always lapsing into technospeak when he should be explaining simply.

“Academician!” Moonrose said brightly. “I would so much like to have a little talk with
you.”

“About mathematics?” he said blandly.

She laughed merrily. “No no! -- that would be far over my head. I represent billions of
inquiring minds who would like to know your thoughts on the Empire, the Quathanan
questions, the -- ”

“The what?”

“Quathanan -- the dispute over Zonal alignment.”

“Never heard of it.”

“But -- you're to be First Minister.” She seemed genuinely surprised, though Hari reminded
himself that this was probably a superbly adept filter-face.

“So I am -- perhaps. Until then, I will not bother.”

“When the High Council selects, they must know the views of the candidates, ” she said
rather primly.

“Tell your viewers that I do my homework only just before it's due.”

She looked charmed, which made him certain that she was filtered. He had learned from many
collisions with them that media mavens were easily irked when brushed aside. They seemed
to feel it quite natural that, since an immense audience saw through their eyes, they
carried all the moral heft of that audience.

“What about a subject you certainly must know -- the Junin disaster? And the loss -- some
say escape -- of the Voltaire and Joan of Arc sims?”

“Not my department,” Hari said. Cleon had advised him to keep his distance from the entire
sim issue.

“Rumors suggest that they came from your department.”

“Certainly, one of our research mathists found them. We leased rights to those people --
what was their name ... ?”

“Artifice Associates, as I am sure you know.”

“Um, yes.”

“This distracted professor role is not convincing, sir.”

“You'd rather I spent my time running for office -- and then, presumably, running for
cover?”

“The world, the whole Empire, has a right to know -- ”

“So I should stand only for what the people will fall for?”

Her mouth twisted, coming through her filters, so apparently she had decided to play this
interview as a contest of wills. “You're hiding the peoples' business from -- ”

“My research is my own business.”

She waved this aside. “What do you say, as a mathematician, to those who feel that deep
sims of real people are immoral?”

Hari wished fervently for his own face filters. He was sure he was giving away something,
so he forced his face to stay blank. Best to deflect the argument. “How real were those
sims? Can anybody know?”

“They certainly seemed real and human to the audience, ” Moonrose said, raising her
eyebrows.

“I'm afraid I didn't watch the performance, ” Hari said. “I was busy. ” Strictly true, at
least.

Moonrose leaned forward, scowling. “With your mathematics? Well, then, tell us about
psychohistory.”

He was still keeping his face wooden -- which gave the wrong signal. He made himself
smile. “A rumor.”

“I have it on good authority that you are favored by the Emperor because of this theory of
history.”

“What authority?”

“Now sir, I should ask the questions here -- ”

“Who says? I'm still a public servant, a professor. And you, madam, are taking up time I
could be devoting to my students.”

With a wave Hari cut off the link. He had learned, since bandying words with Lamurk in
clear view of an unsuspected 3D snout, to chop off talk when it was going the wrong way.

Dors came through the door as he leaned back into his airchair. “I got a hail, said
somebody important was grilling you.”

“She's gone. Poked at me about psychohistory.”

“Well, it was bound to get out. It's an exciting synthesis of terms. Appeals to the
imagination.”

“Maybe if I'd called it 'sociohistory' people would think it more boring and leave me
alone.”

“You could never live with so ugly a word.”

The electroshield sparkled and snapped as Yugo Amaryl came through. “Am I interrupting
anything?”

“Not at all.” Hari leapt up and helped him to a chair. He was still limping. “How's the
leg?”

He shrugged. “Decent.”

Three thuggos had come to Yugo on the street a week ago and explained the situation very
calmly. They had been commissioned to do him damage, a warning he would not forget. Some
bones had to be broken; that was the specification, nothing he could do about it. The
leader explained how they could do this the hard way. If he fought, he would get messed
up. The easy way, they would break his shin bone in one clean snap.

Describing it afterward, Yugo had said, “I thought about it some, y'know, and sat down on
the sidewalk and stuck my left leg out straight. Braced it against the curb, below the
knee. The leader kicked me there. A good job; it broke clean and straight.”

Hari had been horrified. The media latched onto the story, of course. His only wry
statement to them was, “Violence is the diplomacy of the incompetent.”

“Medtech tells me it'll heal up in another week, ” Yugo said as Hari helped him stretch
out, the air-chair shaping itself subtly.

“The Imperials still haven't a clue who did it,” Dors said, pacing restlessly around the
office.

“Plenty of people will do a job like this. ” Yugo grinned, an effect somewhat offset by
the big bruise on his jaw. The incident had not been quite as gentlemanly as he described
it. “They kinda liked doing it to a Dahlite, too.”

Dors paced angrily. “If I'd been there ... ”

“You can't be everywhere,” Hari said kindly. “The Imperials think it wasn't really about
you, anyway, Yugo.”

Yugo's mouth twisted ruefully at Hari. “I figured. You, right?”

Hari nodded. “A 'signal,' one of them said.”

Dors turned sharply from her pacing. “Of what?”

“A warning,” Yugo said. “Politics.”

“I see, ” she said quickly. “Lamurk cannot strike at you directly, but he leaves -- ”

“An unsubtle calling card,” Yugo finished for her.

Dors smacked her hands together. “We should tell the Emperor!”

Hari had to chuckle. “And you, a historian. Violence has always played a role in issues of
succession. It can never be far from Cleon's mind.”

“For emperors, yes, ” she countered. “But in a contest for First Minister -- ”

“Power is gettin' scarce 'round here,” Yugo drawled sarcastically. “Pesky Dahlites makin'
trouble, Empire itself slowin' down, too. Or spinnin' off into loony 'renaissances.'
Probably a Dahlite plot, that, righto?”

Hari said, “When food gets scarce, table manners change.”

Yugo said, “I'll just bet the Emperor's got this all analyzed.”

Dors began pacing again. “One of history's lessons is that emperors who overanalyze fail,
while those who oversimplify succeed.”

“A neat analysis,” Hari said, but she did not catch his irony.

“Uh, I actually came in to get some work done, ” Yugo said softly. “I've finished
reconciling the Trantorian historical data with the modified Seldon Equations.”

Hari leaned forward, though Dors kept pacing, her hands clasped behind her back.
“Wonderful! How far off are they?”

Yugo grinned as he slipped a ferrite cube into Hari's desk display slot. “Watch.”

Trantor had endured at least eighteen millennia, though the pre-Empire period was poorly
documented. Yugo had collapsed the ocean of data into a 3D. Economics lay along one axis,
social indices along another, with politics making up the third dimension. Each
contributed a surface, forming a solid shape that hung above Hari's desk. The
slippery-looking blob was man-sized and in constant motion -- -deforming, caves opening,
lumps rising. Color-coded internal flows were visible through the transparent skin.

“It looks like a cancerous organ,” Dors said. When Yugo frowned, she added hastily,
“Pretty, though.”

Hari chuckled; Dors seldom made social gaffes, but when she did, she had no idea of how to
recover. The lumpy object hanging in air throbbed with life, capturing his attention. The
writhing manifold summed up trillions of vectors, the raw data drawn from countless tiny
lives.

“This early history had patchy data,” Yugo said. The surfaces jerked and lurched. “Low
resolution, too, and even low population size -- a problem we won't have in Empire
predictions.”

“See the two-dee socio-structures?” Hari pointed.

“And this represents everything in Trantor?” Dors asked.

Yugo said, “To the model not all detail is equally important. You don't need to know the
owner of a starship to calculate how it will fly.”

Hari said helpfully, pointing at a quick jitter in social vectors, “Scientocracy arose
here third millennium. Then an era in which stasis arose from monopolies. That fed
rigidity.”

The forms steadied as the data improved. Yugo let it run, time-stepping quickly so that
they saw fifteen millennia in three minutes. It was startling, the pulsing solid growing
myriad offshoots, structure endlessly proliferating. The madly burgeoning patterns spoke
of the Empire's complexity far more than any emperor's lofty speech.

“Now here's the overlay,” Yugo said, “showing how the Seldon Equations post-diet, in
yellow.”

“They aren't my equations,” Hari said automatically. Long ago he and Yugo had seen that to
predict with psychohistory first demanded that they post-diet the past, for verification.
“They were -- ”

“Just watch.”

Alongside the deep blue data-figure, a yellow lump congealed. It looked to Hari like an
identical twin to the original. Each went through contortions, seething with history's
energy. Each ripple and snag represented many billions of human triumphs and tragedies.
Every small shudder had once been a calamity.

“They're ... the same,” Hari whispered.

“Damn right, ” Yugo said.

“The theory fits.”

“Yup. Psychohistory works.”

Hari stared at the flexing colors. “I never thought ... ”

“It could work so well?” Dors had walked behind his chair and now rubbed his scalp.

“Well, yes.”

“You have spent years including the proper variables. It must work.”

Yugo smiled tolerantly. “If only more people shared your faith in mathists. You've
forgotten the sparrow effect.”

Dors was transfixed by the shimmering data-solids, now rerunning all Trantorian history,
throbbing with different-colored schemes to show up differences between real history and
the equations' post-dictions. There were very few. What's more, they did not grow with
time.

Not taking her eyes from the display, Dors asked slowly, “Sparrow? We have birds as pets,
but surely -- ”

“Suppose a sparrow flaps its wings at the equator, out in the open. That shifts the air
circulation a tiny amount. If things break just right, the sparrow could trigger a tornado
up at the poles.”

Dors was startled. “Impossible!”

Hari said, “Don't confuse it with the fabled nail in the shoe of a horse, that a legendary
beast of burden. Remember? -- its rider lost a battle and then a kingdom. That was failure
of a small, critical component. Fundamental, random phenomena are democratic. Tiny
differences in every coupled variable can produce staggering changes.”

It took a while to get the point through. Like any other world, Trantor's meteorology had
a daunting sensitivity to initial conditions. A sparrow's wing-flutter on one side of
Trantor, amplified through fluid equations over weeks, could drive a howling hurricane a
continent away. No computer could model all the tiny details of real weather to make exact
predictions possible.

Dors pointed at the data-solids. “So -- this is all wrong?”

“I hope not, ” Hari said. “Weather varies, but climate holds steady.”

“Still ... no wonder Trantorians prefer indoors. Outdoors can be dangerous.”

“The fact that the equations describe what happened -- well, it means that small effects
can smooth out in history, ” Hari said.

Yugo added, “Stuff on a human scale can average away.”

She stopped massaging Hari's scalp. “Then ... people don't matter?”

Hari said carefully, “Most biography persuades us that people -- that we -- are important.
Psychohistory teaches that we aren't.”

“As a historian, I cannot accept -- ”

“Look at the data, ” Yugo put in.

They watched as Yugo brought up detail, showed off features. For ordinary people, history
endured through art, myth, and liturgy. They felt it through concrete examples, close up:
a building, a custom, a historical name. He and Yugo and the others were like sparrows
themselves, hovering high over a landscape unguessed by the inhabitants below. They saw
the slow surge of terrain, glacial and unstoppable.