Freedomnomics: Why the Free Market Works and Other Half-Baked Theories Don't (36 page)
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Authors: John R. Lott Jr.
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86
Permits are particularly popular among celebrities who face a variety of potential security threats: in 2006, Donald Trump, Robert De Niro, Harvey Keitel, Howard Stern, and Don Imus were among those holding right-to-carry permits just in New York City. A high rate of permits is also held by professional athletes, including NBA stars Shaquille O’Neal, Paul Pierce, and Vince Carter, and NFL players like Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, Santana Moss, Jason Taylor, Bob Sanders, Cato June, Jeff Saturday, and Daunte Culpepper. Even famous coaches such as Barry Switzer and Bobby Knight have carried concealed handguns. See Bob Hohler, “Many players regard firearm as a necessity: Concealed weapon licenses common,”
Boston Globe
, November 10, 2006; Kenneth Lovett, “Mike to Gun-Permit Holders: ‘Pack’ It in,”
New York Post
, November 1, 2006; and John R. Lott Jr., “Athletes and Guns,”
Foxnews.com
, January 28, 2004 (
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,109670,00.html
).
Permits are particularly popular among celebrities who face a variety of potential security threats: in 2006, Donald Trump, Robert De Niro, Harvey Keitel, Howard Stern, and Don Imus were among those holding right-to-carry permits just in New York City. A high rate of permits is also held by professional athletes, including NBA stars Shaquille O’Neal, Paul Pierce, and Vince Carter, and NFL players like Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, Santana Moss, Jason Taylor, Bob Sanders, Cato June, Jeff Saturday, and Daunte Culpepper. Even famous coaches such as Barry Switzer and Bobby Knight have carried concealed handguns. See Bob Hohler, “Many players regard firearm as a necessity: Concealed weapon licenses common,”
Boston Globe
, November 10, 2006; Kenneth Lovett, “Mike to Gun-Permit Holders: ‘Pack’ It in,”
New York Post
, November 1, 2006; and John R. Lott Jr., “Athletes and Guns,”
Foxnews.com
, January 28, 2004 (
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,109670,00.html
).
87
Some gun control advocates, however, continue to deny this. For example, Douglas Weil, while he was with Handgun Control (now called the Brady Campaign), claimed: “In states with lax CCW [Concealed Carry Weapons] laws, hundreds of licensees have committed crimes both before and after their licensure. For example, in Texas, which weakened its CCW law in 1996, the Department of Public Safety reported that felony and misdemeanor cases involving CCW permit holders rose 54.4% between 1996 and 1997.” (Douglas Weil, “Carrying Concealed Guns is Not the Solution,”
Intellectualcapital.com
, March 26, 1998). This is indeed true, but Weil fails to mention that the number of permits also increased by 50 percent between those two years, thus keeping the rate at which permit holders were arrested virtually unchanged. Texas permit holders actually tend to be quite law-abiding compared to the rest of the population, with just 180 out of 225,000 convicted of a misdemeanor or felony in 2001 (
http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administration/crime_records/chl/convrates.htm
). For a more extensive debunking of these and other faulty claims of gun control
advocates, see Chapter 9 of my book,
More Guns, Less Crime
(2000).
Some gun control advocates, however, continue to deny this. For example, Douglas Weil, while he was with Handgun Control (now called the Brady Campaign), claimed: “In states with lax CCW [Concealed Carry Weapons] laws, hundreds of licensees have committed crimes both before and after their licensure. For example, in Texas, which weakened its CCW law in 1996, the Department of Public Safety reported that felony and misdemeanor cases involving CCW permit holders rose 54.4% between 1996 and 1997.” (Douglas Weil, “Carrying Concealed Guns is Not the Solution,”
Intellectualcapital.com
, March 26, 1998). This is indeed true, but Weil fails to mention that the number of permits also increased by 50 percent between those two years, thus keeping the rate at which permit holders were arrested virtually unchanged. Texas permit holders actually tend to be quite law-abiding compared to the rest of the population, with just 180 out of 225,000 convicted of a misdemeanor or felony in 2001 (
http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administration/crime_records/chl/convrates.htm
). For a more extensive debunking of these and other faulty claims of gun control
advocates, see Chapter 9 of my book,
More Guns, Less Crime
(2000).
88
Florida Department of Agricultural and Consumer Services, Concealed Weapon / Firearm Summary Report, October 1, 1987 - November 30, 2006 (
http://licgweb.doacs.state.fl.us/stats/cw_monthly.html
). See also
More Guns, Less Crime
(2000), 221.
Florida Department of Agricultural and Consumer Services, Concealed Weapon / Firearm Summary Report, October 1, 1987 - November 30, 2006 (
http://licgweb.doacs.state.fl.us/stats/cw_monthly.html
). See also
More Guns, Less Crime
(2000), 221.
89
Telephone interview with Ms. Mary Kennedy of the Florida Department of Agricultural and Consumer Services, Concealed Weapon / Firearm Division during February 2007.
Telephone interview with Ms. Mary Kennedy of the Florida Department of Agricultural and Consumer Services, Concealed Weapon / Firearm Division during February 2007.
92
Brian Blasé, “The National Crime Victimization Survey,” November 27, 2005,
http://johnrlott.tripod.com/other/NCVS.html
.
Brian Blasé, “The National Crime Victimization Survey,” November 27, 2005,
http://johnrlott.tripod.com/other/NCVS.html
.
93
Stephen Bronars and John R. Lott, Jr., “Deterrence, Right-to-Carry Concealed Handgun Laws, and the Geographic Displacement of Crime,”
American Economic Review
, May 1998, 475-479.
Stephen Bronars and John R. Lott, Jr., “Deterrence, Right-to-Carry Concealed Handgun Laws, and the Geographic Displacement of Crime,”
American Economic Review
, May 1998, 475-479.
97
Carlisle E. Moody and Thomas B. Marvel, “Guns and Crime,”
Southern Economic Journal
, 2005, 720-736. Duggan uses some creative methods to reach his conclusion that lawful gun ownership increases crime. For example, he estimates gun ownership by measuring sales of
Guns&Ammo,
the fourth biggest-selling gun magazine. Unfortunately, his result only holds true for a single magazine whose unusual sales practices skew the resultes. Skip Johnson, a vice president for
Guns&Ammo’s
and
Handguns Magazine’s
parent company,
Primedia
, told me that between 5 and 20 percent of
Guns&Ammo’s
national sales in a particular year were purchases by his own company to meet its guaranteed sales to advertisers. These copies were given away for free in places like dentists’ and doctors’ offices. Because the purchases were meant to offset any unexpected national declines in sales, Johnson said that his own purchases were very selective and produced very large swings in a relatively small number of counties. More importantly, while a precise breakdown of how these free samples are counted toward the sales in different counties is not available, these self-purchases were apparently related to factors that helped explain why people might purchase
guns, and these factors included changing crime rates. Johnson indicated that the issue of self-purchases is particularly important for
Guns&Ammo
because the magazine had declining sales over part of this period. See also Peter Kennedy’s example 20. Peter E. Kennedy, “Oh No! I Got the Wrong Sign: What Should I Do?”
Journal of Economic Education
, 36(1) (Winter 2005): 77-92.
Carlisle E. Moody and Thomas B. Marvel, “Guns and Crime,”
Southern Economic Journal
, 2005, 720-736. Duggan uses some creative methods to reach his conclusion that lawful gun ownership increases crime. For example, he estimates gun ownership by measuring sales of
Guns&Ammo,
the fourth biggest-selling gun magazine. Unfortunately, his result only holds true for a single magazine whose unusual sales practices skew the resultes. Skip Johnson, a vice president for
Guns&Ammo’s
and
Handguns Magazine’s
parent company,
Primedia
, told me that between 5 and 20 percent of
Guns&Ammo’s
national sales in a particular year were purchases by his own company to meet its guaranteed sales to advertisers. These copies were given away for free in places like dentists’ and doctors’ offices. Because the purchases were meant to offset any unexpected national declines in sales, Johnson said that his own purchases were very selective and produced very large swings in a relatively small number of counties. More importantly, while a precise breakdown of how these free samples are counted toward the sales in different counties is not available, these self-purchases were apparently related to factors that helped explain why people might purchase
guns, and these factors included changing crime rates. Johnson indicated that the issue of self-purchases is particularly important for
Guns&Ammo
because the magazine had declining sales over part of this period. See also Peter Kennedy’s example 20. Peter E. Kennedy, “Oh No! I Got the Wrong Sign: What Should I Do?”
Journal of Economic Education
, 36(1) (Winter 2005): 77-92.
98
Another skeptical study by Dan Black and Dan Nagin disregarded all counties with fewer than 100,000 people, as well as the entire state of Florida, but still found drops in robberies and aggravated assaults attributable to right-to-carry laws. See Dan A. Black and Daniel S. Nagin, “Do Right-to-Carry Laws Deter Violent Crime?”
Journal of Legal Studies
(January 1998): 212. The drop in robbery was statistically significant at 6 percent.
Another skeptical study by Dan Black and Dan Nagin disregarded all counties with fewer than 100,000 people, as well as the entire state of Florida, but still found drops in robberies and aggravated assaults attributable to right-to-carry laws. See Dan A. Black and Daniel S. Nagin, “Do Right-to-Carry Laws Deter Violent Crime?”
Journal of Legal Studies
(January 1998): 212. The drop in robbery was statistically significant at 6 percent.
Jens Ludwig dismissed as an anomaly his own findings of decreasing crime rates connected to the passage of right-to-carry laws because crime fell against both juveniles and adults, even though only adults are allowed to carry concealed handguns. An earlier study I co-authored with David Mustard explained this same result by noting that both age groups benefit when the passage of right-to-carry laws results in criminals leaving an area, or in the protection of juveniles by adults with right-to-carry permits.See David Mustard and I found the same result (
Journal of Legal Studies
, 1997, 51), but we also offered explanations for it that Ludwig never investigated. See Jens Ludwig, “Concealed Gun Carrying Laws and Violent Crime: Evidence from State Panel Data,”
International Review of Law and Economics
, November 1998, and John Lott and David Mustard, “Crime, Deterrence, and Right-to-carry Concealed Handguns,”
Journal of Legal Studies
(1997): 51. Similar problems are found in the other major studies denying that right-to-carry laws reduce crime rates. Duwe, Kovandzic, and Moody claim to find no statistically significant impact of right-to-carry laws on multiple victim public shootings, though they only examine the very small set of cases where four or more people were killed in attacks. Indeed, while the original work that I did with Bill Landes found significant drops in crime when we examined two or more people killed or three or more people killed, we also did not find a statistically significant result for one type of specification when we looked at only four or more people killed (Lott,
The Bias Against Guns
, 307, fn. 61). See Grant Duwe, Tomislave Kovandzic, and Carlisle E. Moody, “The Impact of Right-to-Carry Concealed Firearm Laws on Mass Public Shootings,”
Homicide Studies
, (November 2002): 271-296.
The work by Dezhbakhsh and Rubin is discussed in my book
More Guns, Less Crime
(302, and 304). See also Hashem Dezhbakhsh and Paul H. Rubin, “The Effect of Concealed Handgun Laws on Crime: Going Beyond the Dummy Variables,”
International Review of Law and Economics
, 23, 2003, 199-216, and Dezhbakhsh, Rubin, and Shepherd,
American Law and Economics Review
, 2003.
Journal of Legal Studies
, 1997, 51), but we also offered explanations for it that Ludwig never investigated. See Jens Ludwig, “Concealed Gun Carrying Laws and Violent Crime: Evidence from State Panel Data,”
International Review of Law and Economics
, November 1998, and John Lott and David Mustard, “Crime, Deterrence, and Right-to-carry Concealed Handguns,”
Journal of Legal Studies
(1997): 51. Similar problems are found in the other major studies denying that right-to-carry laws reduce crime rates. Duwe, Kovandzic, and Moody claim to find no statistically significant impact of right-to-carry laws on multiple victim public shootings, though they only examine the very small set of cases where four or more people were killed in attacks. Indeed, while the original work that I did with Bill Landes found significant drops in crime when we examined two or more people killed or three or more people killed, we also did not find a statistically significant result for one type of specification when we looked at only four or more people killed (Lott,
The Bias Against Guns
, 307, fn. 61). See Grant Duwe, Tomislave Kovandzic, and Carlisle E. Moody, “The Impact of Right-to-Carry Concealed Firearm Laws on Mass Public Shootings,”
Homicide Studies
, (November 2002): 271-296.
The work by Dezhbakhsh and Rubin is discussed in my book
More Guns, Less Crime
(302, and 304). See also Hashem Dezhbakhsh and Paul H. Rubin, “The Effect of Concealed Handgun Laws on Crime: Going Beyond the Dummy Variables,”
International Review of Law and Economics
, 23, 2003, 199-216, and Dezhbakhsh, Rubin, and Shepherd,
American Law and Economics Review
, 2003.
Finally, there are several unrefereed papers by Ian Ayres and John Donohue. For a response to their 1999 paper, see my book
More Guns, Less Crime
, Chapter 9. For their 2003
Stanford Law Review
paper, see Plassmann and Whitlely’s piece in the same law review. Plassmann and Whitley point to a number of misleading figures from Ayres and Donohue (there was no increase in crime for in the fifteenth, sixteenth, and seventeenth years after the right-to-carry laws were in effect, and the only appearance of an increase was an artifact of them dropping states out of their sample). Also in the Ayres and Donohue paper state by state regression results are an artifact of them limiting the time period to five years and fitting a line and an intercept shift to nonlinear data. See Ian Ayres and John Donohue, “Nondiscretionary Concealed Weapons Laws,”
American Law and Economics Review
, Fall 1999, 436-470. Florenz Plassmann and John Whitley Confirming ‘More Guns, Less Crime,’”
Stanford Law Review
, 2003, 1313-1369,
http://johnrlott.tripod.com/Plassmann_Whitley.pdf
. Ian Ayres and John Donohue, “Shooting Down the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis,”
Stanford Law Review
, 2003. While their
American Law and Economics Review
piece simply argues that the evidence that right-to-carry laws reduce crime is weak, the final conclusion of their other paper is more ambiguous. I am relying on Donohue’s statement that “his own research shows that concealed carry laws have a negligible effect on crime either way. ‘We’re still not sure what the true impact is. It’s very easy to get it wrong.’” See Erin Grace, “Concealed-carry absolutes are a moving target,”
Omaha World-Herald
(Nebraska), July 16, 2006.
More Guns, Less Crime
, Chapter 9. For their 2003
Stanford Law Review
paper, see Plassmann and Whitlely’s piece in the same law review. Plassmann and Whitley point to a number of misleading figures from Ayres and Donohue (there was no increase in crime for in the fifteenth, sixteenth, and seventeenth years after the right-to-carry laws were in effect, and the only appearance of an increase was an artifact of them dropping states out of their sample). Also in the Ayres and Donohue paper state by state regression results are an artifact of them limiting the time period to five years and fitting a line and an intercept shift to nonlinear data. See Ian Ayres and John Donohue, “Nondiscretionary Concealed Weapons Laws,”
American Law and Economics Review
, Fall 1999, 436-470. Florenz Plassmann and John Whitley Confirming ‘More Guns, Less Crime,’”
Stanford Law Review
, 2003, 1313-1369,
http://johnrlott.tripod.com/Plassmann_Whitley.pdf
. Ian Ayres and John Donohue, “Shooting Down the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis,”
Stanford Law Review
, 2003. While their
American Law and Economics Review
piece simply argues that the evidence that right-to-carry laws reduce crime is weak, the final conclusion of their other paper is more ambiguous. I am relying on Donohue’s statement that “his own research shows that concealed carry laws have a negligible effect on crime either way. ‘We’re still not sure what the true impact is. It’s very easy to get it wrong.’” See Erin Grace, “Concealed-carry absolutes are a moving target,”
Omaha World-Herald
(Nebraska), July 16, 2006.
99
Another quarter of the drop in crime is explained by changing economic factors such as the male unemployment rate, non-college educated male wages, and family income. See Eric Gould, Bruce Weinberg, and David Mustard, “Crime Rates and Local Labor Market Opportunities in the United States: 1979-1997,”
Review of Economics and Statistics
, February 2002: 57, fn. 35.
Another quarter of the drop in crime is explained by changing economic factors such as the male unemployment rate, non-college educated male wages, and family income. See Eric Gould, Bruce Weinberg, and David Mustard, “Crime Rates and Local Labor Market Opportunities in the United States: 1979-1997,”
Review of Economics and Statistics
, February 2002: 57, fn. 35.
100
For the very oldest ages the graph is affected somewhat because there are fewer people in those age categories. This really doesn’t make much difference until you get to around 60 years of age, and the number of criminals
in that age group is so small that making the adjustments would not make much of a difference.
For the very oldest ages the graph is affected somewhat because there are fewer people in those age categories. This really doesn’t make much difference until you get to around 60 years of age, and the number of criminals
in that age group is so small that making the adjustments would not make much of a difference.
101
One of the more important, politically incorrect books on crime is Wilson and Hernstein’s
Crime and Human Nature
, New York: Simon and Schuster, 1985. The book postulated and provided evidence that certain broad groups of people are more likely to engage in crime.
One of the more important, politically incorrect books on crime is Wilson and Hernstein’s
Crime and Human Nature
, New York: Simon and Schuster, 1985. The book postulated and provided evidence that certain broad groups of people are more likely to engage in crime.
102
See Table 2.7 in “Murder - Crime in the United States, 2004,” Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, February 17, 2006 (
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_04/offenses_reported/violent_crime/murder.html
).
See Table 2.7 in “Murder - Crime in the United States, 2004,” Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, February 17, 2006 (
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_04/offenses_reported/violent_crime/murder.html
).
103
Transcript from CNN’s
American Morning
, September 8, 2004 (http://transcripts.
cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0409/08/ltm.05.html
).
Transcript from CNN’s
American Morning
, September 8, 2004 (http://transcripts.
cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0409/08/ltm.05.html
).
105
In contrast, during the same months in 2003 the murder rate fell only 1 percent.
In contrast, during the same months in 2003 the murder rate fell only 1 percent.
106
Christopher S. Koper and Jeffrey A. Roth. 2002,
An Updated Assessment of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban: Impacts on Gun Markets, 1994-2000
. Unpublished interim report to the National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute. See also Christopher S. Koper, 2004.
An Updated Assessment of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban: Impacts on Gun Markets and Gun Violence, 1994-2003.
Report NCJ-204431 to the National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice. Philadelphia: Jerry Lee Center of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania. Available electronically from the Jerry Lee Center (
www.sas.upenn.edu/jerrylee/research.htm
) and the National Criminal Justice Reference Service (
www.ncjrs.org/pdffiles1/nij/grants/204431.pdf
).
Christopher S. Koper and Jeffrey A. Roth. 2002,
An Updated Assessment of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban: Impacts on Gun Markets, 1994-2000
. Unpublished interim report to the National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute. See also Christopher S. Koper, 2004.
An Updated Assessment of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban: Impacts on Gun Markets and Gun Violence, 1994-2003.
Report NCJ-204431 to the National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice. Philadelphia: Jerry Lee Center of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania. Available electronically from the Jerry Lee Center (
www.sas.upenn.edu/jerrylee/research.htm
) and the National Criminal Justice Reference Service (
www.ncjrs.org/pdffiles1/nij/grants/204431.pdf
).
108
Brian A. Reaves and Matthew Hickman, “Police Departments in Large Cities, 1990-2000,” Bureau of Justice Statistics, Department of Justice, May 2002 (
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/pdlc00.pdf
).
Brian A. Reaves and Matthew Hickman, “Police Departments in Large Cities, 1990-2000,” Bureau of Justice Statistics, Department of Justice, May 2002 (
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/pdlc00.pdf
).
109
Bureau of Justice Statistics, “1985-1997 Homicide and population data for cities with population of 100,000 and over in 1997,” FBI, Uniform Crime Reports (
http://www.hopemcc.org/data/lgcithom.htm
) and FBI Uniform Crime Reports for 2000 (
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/00cius.htm
).
Bureau of Justice Statistics, “1985-1997 Homicide and population data for cities with population of 100,000 and over in 1997,” FBI, Uniform Crime Reports (
http://www.hopemcc.org/data/lgcithom.htm
) and FBI Uniform Crime Reports for 2000 (
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/00cius.htm
).
110
Reaves and Hickman, 5 and 13-14.
Reaves and Hickman, 5 and 13-14.
111
Patrick A. Langan and Matthew Durose, “The Remarkable Drop in Crime in New York City,” Bureau of Justice Statistics, U.S. Department of Justice, October 21, 2004, Appendix table 3. The number of police in New York City peaked in 1999 at 41,791. Earlier numbers underreported the change in the number of sworn full-time police officers. See Brian A. Reaves and Matthew Hickman, “Police Departments in Large Cities, 1990-2000,” Bureau of Justice Statistics, Department of Justice, May 2002. Large cities are defined as those with over 250,000 people (
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/pdlc00.pdf
). See also Bruce Frankel, “Ex-NYC officer tells stark tale of cops gone bad,”
USA Today
, September 28, 1993, 3A.
Patrick A. Langan and Matthew Durose, “The Remarkable Drop in Crime in New York City,” Bureau of Justice Statistics, U.S. Department of Justice, October 21, 2004, Appendix table 3. The number of police in New York City peaked in 1999 at 41,791. Earlier numbers underreported the change in the number of sworn full-time police officers. See Brian A. Reaves and Matthew Hickman, “Police Departments in Large Cities, 1990-2000,” Bureau of Justice Statistics, Department of Justice, May 2002. Large cities are defined as those with over 250,000 people (
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/pdlc00.pdf
). See also Bruce Frankel, “Ex-NYC officer tells stark tale of cops gone bad,”
USA Today
, September 28, 1993, 3A.
112
Reaves and Hickman. If I used the NYPD numbers provided by Reaves and Hickman showing that the number of sworn full-time police officers went from 31,236 in 1990 to 40,435 by 2000, the per capita increase in New York’s police force is still almost three times greater than that for other large cities.
Reaves and Hickman. If I used the NYPD numbers provided by Reaves and Hickman showing that the number of sworn full-time police officers went from 31,236 in 1990 to 40,435 by 2000, the per capita increase in New York’s police force is still almost three times greater than that for other large cities.
113
John R. Lott, Jr., “Does a Helping hand Put Others At Risk?: Affirmative Action, Police Departments, and Crime,”
Economic Inquiry
, vol. 38, no. 2 (April 2000): 241.
John R. Lott, Jr., “Does a Helping hand Put Others At Risk?: Affirmative Action, Police Departments, and Crime,”
Economic Inquiry
, vol. 38, no. 2 (April 2000): 241.
114
John Marzulli and David L. Lewis, “Cop Hopefuls Face Chase Test to Mimic Run After Suspect,”
New York Daily News
, March 12, 1997, 7.
John Marzulli and David L. Lewis, “Cop Hopefuls Face Chase Test to Mimic Run After Suspect,”
New York Daily News
, March 12, 1997, 7.
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