Hope's Edge: The Next Diet for a Small Planet (51 page)

10.
U.S. Department of Agriculture,
Agricultural Statistics, 1979 and 1980
, Tables 76 & 77.

11.
Norman Borlaug in conversation with Frances Moore Lappé, April 1974.

12.
U.S. Department of Agriculture,
Agricultural Statistics, 1980
, Table 76.

13.
How many pounds of grain and soy are consumed by the American steer to get 1 pound of edible meat?

(a) The total forage (hay, silage, grass) consumed: 12,000 pounds (10,000 pre-feedlot and 2,000 in feedlot). The total grain- and soy-type concentrate consumed: about 2,850 pounds (300 pounds grain and 50 pounds soy before feedlot, plus 2,200 pounds grain and 300 pounds soy in feedlot). Therefore, the actual percent of total feed units from grain and soy is about 25 percent.

(b) But experts estimate that the grain and soy contribute more to weight gain (and, therefore, to ultimate meat produced) than their actual proportion in the diet. They estimate that grain and soy contribute (instead of 25 percent) about 40 percent of weight put on over the life of the steer.

(c) To estimate what percent of edible meat is due to the grain and soy consumed, multiply that 40 percent (weight gain due to grain and soy) times the edible meat produced at slaughter, or 432 pounds: .4
X
432 = 172.8 pounds of edible portion contributed by grain and soy. (Those who state a 7:1 ratio use the entire 432 pounds edible meat in their computation.)

(d) To determine how many pounds of grain and soy it took to get this 172.8 pounds of edible meat, divide total grain and soy consumed, 2850 pounds, by 172.8 pounds of edible meat; 2850 + 172.8 = 16–17 pounds. (I have taken the lower figure, since the amount of grain being fed may be going down a small amount.) These estimates are based on several consultations with the USDA Economic Research Service and the USDA Agricultural Research Service, Northeastern Division, plus current newspaper reports of actual grain and soy currently being fed.

14.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service and Agricultural Research Service, Northeastern Division, consultations with staff economists.

15.
In 1975 I calculated this average ratio and the return to us in meat from
Livestock-Feed Relationships
, National and State Statistical Bulletin #530, June 1974, pp. 175–77. In 1980 I approached it differently and came out with the same answer. I took the total grain and soy fed to livestock (excluding dairy) from
Agricultural Statistics, 1980
. The total was about 145 million tons in 1979. I then took the meat and poultry and eggs consumed that year from
Food Consumption, Prices, and Expenditures
, USDA-ESS, Statistical Bulletin 656. (I included only the portion of total beef consumed that was put on by grain feeding, about 40 percent, and reduced the total poultry consumed to its edible portion, i.e., minus bones.) The total consumption was about 183.5 pounds per person, or 20 million tons for the whole country. I then divided the 145 million tons of grain and soy fed by the 20 million tons of meat, poultry, and eggs produced by this feeding and came up with the ratio of 7 to 1. (Imports of meat are not large enough to affect this calculation appreciably.)

16.
Calculated as follows: 124 million tons of grain “lost” annually in the United States X 2,000 pounds of grain in a ton = 248 billion pounds “lost” divided by 4.4 billion people = 56 pounds per capita divided by 365 days equals .153 pound per capita per day X 16 ounces in a pound—2.5 ounces per capita per day—1/3 cup of dry grain, or 1 cup cooked volume.

17.
R. F. Brokken, James K. Whittaker, and Ludwig M. Eisgruber, “Past, Present and Future Resource Allocation to Livestock Production,” in
Animals, Feed, Food and People, An Analysis of the Role of Animals in Food Production
, R. L. Baldwin, ed., An American Association for the Advancement of Science Selected Symposium (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1980), pp. 99–100.

18.
J. Rod Martin, “Beef,” in
Another Revolution in U.S. Farming
, by Lyle Schertz and others, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C., 1979, p. 93.

19.
D. E. Brady, “Consumer Preference,”
Journal of Animal Science
, vol. 16, p. 233, cited in H. A. Turner and R. J. Raleigh, “Production of Slaughter Steers from Forages in the Arid West,”
Journal of Animal Science
, vol. 44, no. 5, 1977, pp. 901 ff.

20.
Des Moines Register
, December 8, 1974.

21.
Cattle Feeding in the United States
, op. cit., pp. 78–79.

22.
“Past, Present and Future Resource Allocation to Livestock Production,” op. cit., p. 97.

23.
Ibid. p. 91.

24.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economics and Statistics Service,
Status of the Family Farm
, Second Annual Report to the Congress, Agricultural Economic Report No. 434, p. 48.

25.
Quantities of each fuel used from
Energy and U.S. Agriculture: 1974 and 197S
, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic and Statistics Service, April 1980. Conversions to BTUs used Cervinka, “Fuel and Energy Efficiency,” in David Pimentel, ed.,
Handbook of Energy Utilization in Agriculture
(Boca Raton, Fla.: CRC Press, 1980). Fossil fuel imports from
Monthly Energy Review
, March 1981, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, p. 8.

26.
Georg Borgstrom, Michigan State University, presentation to the Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 1981.

27.
Ibid.

28.
“The Browning of America,”
Newsweek
, February 22, 1981, pp. 26 ff.

29.
To arrive at an estimate of 50 percent, I used
Soil Degradation: Effects on Agricultural Productivity
, Interim Report Number Four of the National Agricultural Lands Study, 1980, which estimates that 81 percent of all water consumed in the United States is for irrigation. And I used the
Fact Book of U.S. Agriculture
, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Misc. Publication No. 1065, November 1979, Table 3, which shows that about 64 percent of irrigated land is used for feed crops, hay, and pasture. Sixty-four percent of 81 percent is 52 percent.

30.
Philip M. Raup, “Competition for Land and the Future of American Agriculture,” in
The Future of American Agriculture as a Strategic Resource
, edited by Sandra S. Batie and Robert G. Healy, A Conservation Foundation Conference, July 14, 1980, Washington, D.C., pp. 36–43. Also see William Franklin Lagrone, “The Great Plains,” in
Another Revolution in U.S. Farming?
, Lyle Schertz and others, U.S. Department of Agriculture, ESCS, Agricultural Economic Report No. 441, December 1979, pp. 335–61. The estimate of grain-fed beefs dependence on the Ogallala is from a telephone interview with resource economist Joe Harris of the consulting firm Camp, Dresser, McKee (Austin, Texas), part of four-year government-sponsored study: “The Six State High Plains Ogallala Aquifer Agricultural Regional Resource Study,” May 1980.

31.
William Franklin Lagrone, “The Great Plains,” op. cit., pp. 356 ff.

32.
“Report: Nebraska’s Water Wealth is Deceptive,”
Omaha World-Herald
, May 28, 1981.

33.
Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics,
Trends in California Livestock and Poultry Production, Consumption, and Feed Use: 1961–1978
, Information Series 80–5, Division of Agricultural Sciences, University of California Bulletin 1899, November 1980, pp. 30–33.

34.
General Accounting Office,
Groundwater Overdrafting
Must Be Controlled
, Report to the Congress of the United States by the Comptroller General, CED 80–96, September 12, 1980, p.3.

35.
Donald Worster,
Dust Bowl: The Southern Plains in the 1930’s
(New York: Oxford University Press, 1979), p. 236.

36.
William Brune, State Conservationist, Soil Conservation Service, Des Moines, Iowa, testimony before Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, July 6, 1976. See also Seth King, “Iowa Rain and Wind Deplete Farmlands,”
New York Times
, December 5, 1976, p. 61.

37.
“In Plymouth County, Iowa, the Rich Topsoil’s Going Fast. Alas,” Curtis Harnack,
New York Times
, July 11, 1980.

38.
Pimentel et al., “Land Degradation: Effects on Food and Energy Resources,” in
Science
, vol. 194, October 1976, p. 150.

39.
National Association of Conservation Districts, Washington, D.C.,
Soil Degradation: Effects on Agricultural Productivity
, Interim Report Number Four, National Agricultural Lands Study, 1980, p. 20, citing the 1977 National Resources Inventory.

40.
Calculated from estimates by Medard Gabel for the Cornucopia Project, c/o Rodale Press, Inc., Emmaus, Pa. 18049. See the description of this project among the organizations in Part IV.

41.
Seth King, “Farms Go Down the River,”
New York Times
, December 10, 1978, citing the Soil Conservation Service.

42.
Ned D. Bayley, Acting Assistant Secretary for Natural Resources and Environment, “Soil and Water Resource Conservation Outlook for the 1980’s,” 1981 Agricultural Outlook Conference, Washington, D.C.

43.
Soil Degradation: Effects on Agricultural Productivity
, op. cit., p. 21.

44.
W. E. Larson, “Protecting the Soil Resource Base,”
Journal of Soil and Water Conservation
, vol. 36, number 1, January-February 1981, pp. 13 ff.

45.
Soil and Water Resources Conservation Act—Summary of Appraisal, USDA Review Draft, 1980, p. 18.

46.
David Pimentel, “Land Degradation: Effects on Food and Energy Resources,” op. cit., p. 150, estimates $500 million costs of sediment damage. Philip LeVeen, in “Some Considerations for Soil Conservation Policy,” unpublished manuscript, Public Interest Economics, 1981, p. 29, estimates $1 billion.

47.
Soil Degradation: Effects on Agricultural Productivity
, op. cit., p. 28.

48.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economics and Statistics Service,
Natural Resource Capital in U.S. Agriculture: Irrigation, Drainage and Conservation Investments Since 1900
, ESCS Staff Paper, March 1979.

49.
Ag World
, April 1978, citing work of Clifton Halsey, University of Minnesota conservationist.

50.
U.S. Department of Agriculture,
Handbook of Agricultural Charts
, 1979, p. 19.

51.
U.S. Department of Agriculture,
Fertilizer Situation
, 1980, p. 14.

52.
Medard Gabel, Cornucopia Project, Preliminary Report, Rodale, Inc., Emmaus, Pa. 18049, p. 33.

53.
C. A. Wolfbauer, “Mineral Resources for Agricultural Use,” in
Agriculture and Energy
, William Lockeretz, ed. (New York: Academic Press, 1977), pp. 301–14. See also
Facts and Problems
, U.S. Bureau of Mines, 1975, pp. 758–868.

54.
General Accounting Office,
Phosphates: A Case Study of A Valuable Depleting Mineral in America
, Report to the Congress by the Comptroller General of the United States, EMD-80–21, November 30, 1979, p. 1.

55.
Environmental Science and Technology
, vol. 4, no. 12, 1970, p. 1098.

56.
Barry Commoner,
The Closing Circle
(Knopf, 1971), p. 148.

57.
Georg Borgstrom,
The Food and People Dilemma
(Duxbury Press, 1973), p. 103.

58.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economics and Statistics Service,
Natural Resource Capital in U.S. Agriculture: Irrigation, Drainage and Conservation Investments Since 1900
, ESCS Staff Paper, March 1979.

59.
General Accounting Office,
Federal Charges for Irrigation Projects Reviewed Do Not Cover Costs
, Report to the Congress of the United States from the Comptroller General, PAD-81–07, March 3, 1981, p. 43.

60.
Ibid. p. 26.

61.
Julia Vitullo-Martin, “Ending the Southwest’s Water Binge,”
Fortune
, February 23, 1981, pp. 93 ff.

62.
Ibid.

63.
Federal Charges
, op. cit., pp. 3–4.