Magnificent Delusions (36 page)

The prospect of resuming military supplies from the United States heartened Pakistanis. Bhutto wrote a letter to Ford, thanking him
for the decision. Among other things, the letter made reference to a conversation between Ahmed and Kissinger, stating, “Dr. Kissinger informed Mr. Ahmed that he had spoken to Gromyko in very strong terms to the effect that an Indian attack on Pakistan with Soviet equipment would invite a response from the United States.” This attracted Kissinger's attention. He asked Byroade to clarify “some important nuances which if not precisely grasped, could lead to misunderstandings.”

According to the American account, Kissinger had only informed the Pakistani diplomat of a conversation with the Soviets in general terms, during which the United States told Soviets that they would hold the USSR responsible for “the use made of their equipment anywhere, and especially in Pakistan.” Similarly Kissinger had asked Ahmed if it would be acceptable for the United States to ask the Chinese what their response might be if Pakistan was attacked. He had also remarked that a general war involving the Soviets and the Chinese would have “the gravest implications for the whole of Asia and for U.S. policy in the area.”

But the Pakistanis had interpreted Kissinger's conversation with Ahmed as an assurance of US involvement on Pakistan's behalf.
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Kissinger, however, did not want Pakistan to misconstrue his queries as commitments. Obviously his banter, aimed at making the Pakistani leaders feel at ease, had once again led to exaggerated expectations in Islamabad.

Even this incident involving potential misunderstandings did not inhibit Kissinger's sense of humor during his subsequent meeting with Ahmed. The Pakistani official arrived with two lists of weapons that Pakistan sought. Kissinger joked, “I hope the nuclear weapons are on the second list.” A chastened Ahmed laughed along. “The 1960 models are in surplus now so we should be able to give you some,” Kissinger shot back. Then he added seriously: “I had better watch what I say since there is no telling what you might report back to Bhutto.”

Kissinger asked Ahmed if Pakistan had the money to buy the equipment it was seeking. Ahmed said, “We will find it from Saudi Arabia.” But he first wanted to know what was available and at what
price. Pakistan wanted the A-7 aircraft and other weapons in a hurry he said. “India might well attack us the 2nd or 3rd week of November in Kashmir.” By now Kissinger had become accustomed to Ahmed's warnings of an impending Indian attack. He said, half in jest, “If you narrow the gap with India to 1 to 10 you will be in good shape.” He then added, “Seriously, we want you strong enough so that India will be afraid to attack.”

According to Ahmed, the Afghans would join an Indian war effort if Pakistan seemed to be in trouble, but Pakistan had failed to secure Chinese assurances of support. “That is why we need weapons off the shelf,” he said. After a wide-ranging conversation on US-China relations and how the Soviets were menacing Pakistan, Ahmed ended on the same note on which he almost always ended: he asked for one million tons of American wheat under PL-480, the Food for Peace program.
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The perennial shortage of wheat did not distract Pakistan from its nuclear ambitions, however. Pakistan persisted with the $150 million deal for the plutonium reprocessing plant from France. Thus, the two countries submitted a safeguards agreement to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and its approval would clear the way for the sale. But the United States had obtained intelligence that raised alarm bells about Pakistan's intentions.

Initially the United States had wondered whether Pakistan would be able to pursue a nuclear weapons program given its economic limitations, and Kissinger had hoped to dissuade Bhutto from seeking an atomic bomb by offering advanced conventional weapons. But now it was apparent that Pakistan was putting together elements of a weapons program. The country had only one nuclear reactor, it had made no plans for expanding nuclear power generation, and the reprocessing plant purchase pointed toward a scheme to produce fissile material.

Nonproliferation advocates demanded that the Ford administration put pressure on Pakistan and France to cancel their reprocessing plant deal. “A nuclear arms race on the subcontinent is not in the interest of Pakistan or of the world,” said a
New York Times
editorial. “Suspension of the Pakistan deal would improve chances to discourage India
from going any further with the nuclear weapons development which New Delhi insists it still does not plan,” it argued.
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Ford decided to write directly to Bhutto. His letter began by welcoming the “forthright assurances that Pakistan will not divert its civil nuclear development efforts into an explosives program.” He listed uranium enrichment, heavy water production, and chemical reprocessing as potential routes to nuclear proliferation. South Korea had recently agreed to forego acquiring a national reprocessing plant. Ford asked that Pakistan do the same.
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Ford's request was the administration's first attempt to convey to Pakistan the difficulty it faced at home over the proliferation question. Congress had passed the Symington Amendment to the 1961 Foreign Assistance Act that governed foreign aid. Named after Senator Stuart Symington, a Missouri Democrat, the amendment barred all US economic and military assistance to countries that acquired or transferred nuclear technology without full safeguards and international inspections.

Kissinger tried to persuade Bhutto with a simple explanation of political realities. He told the Pakistani ambassador, Sahibzada Yaqub Khan, that the reprocessing plant had become a domestic issue in US politics. “You know what the American domestic situation is,” he said. Kissinger then explained the US political scene. “You know that if the Democrats win, they would like nothing better than to make a horrible example of somebody,” he observed—a statement, which taken out of context, later fed Pakistani hatred toward the United States.

Kissinger was summing up the Democrats' political options in order to point out why they might target Pakistan over nonproliferation. “They would love to take on the French, but they can't,” he said. “They cannot be accused of being anti-European integration and anti-NATO, let alone anti-Atlantic. If the Democrats win, you will face an assault and they will attack you.” In a sympathetic tone Kissinger told Yaqub that credit and arms sales would become “much more difficult, even impossible” if the Democrats won the US election. “You know that the last thing I want to do is to be responsible for this.”
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But, as Kissinger feared, the Democrats won the election. The new president, Jimmy Carter, did not have any affection for Pakistan nor did the leading members of the incoming National Security team. As he left office, Kissinger remembered to put Pakistan's request for military aid on the list of issues he considered a priority for his successor as secretary of state, Cyrus Vance. He requested that Vance help get congressional approval for the sale of A-7 planes for Pakistan. Kissinger also hoped that a solution would be found for the “nuclear matters.”
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W
HILE BHUTTO NEGOTIATED
with the United States for military aid and over the nuclear reprocessing plant, he also made two critical decisions with grave implications for his political survival. He appointed General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq, a lackluster officer, as the army chief in March 1976. He also scheduled parliamentary elections for March 1977. In both decisions the head of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Lieutenant General Ghulam Jilani Khan, advised Bhutto closely.
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Zia was personally religious and was closely connected to several Islamists by virtue of his social and family origins. Jilani advised Bhutto that a mild-mannered, religiously inclined army chief could not be a threat to civilian authority. This was critical because, based on Pakistan's history, Bhutto had good reason to worry about military coups. He had once told Kissinger that he retained the defense minister's portfolio because “one has to maintain tight control in order to avoid a coup.”
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A later US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) rundown of Zia said, “Bhutto reportedly appointed Zia to the top Army post over the heads of generals with more seniority, because of his reputation as a professional ‘soldier of Islam' with only mediocre ability and little political ambition.” According to the DIA, Bhutto thought Zia would “place no obstacles in the way of Bhutto's popular rule.”

The profile further stated, “Zia has been described as ‘dumb like a fox' and it has been suggested that ‘he may have deliberately
cultivated his image as inexperienced and indecisive in order to lull potential opponents into underestimating him'.”
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Zia's cunning, ambition, and ruthlessness later proved to be a death sentence for Bhutto.

Soon after Bhutto scheduled elections his opponents united under the banner of the Pakistan National Alliance (PNA). This energized the disparate opposition, which put up a good show, with massive anti-Bhutto rallies in large cities. The ISI had told Bhutto that he would win 70 to 80 percent support in the country's key regions.
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Once the campaign began, however, the race seemed tighter.

Bhutto had ruled with a firm hand, and the election unleashed sentiment against his authoritarianism, middle-class anger over his nationalization, and the deeper ideological opposition to his secular tendencies. Although the PNA ran an animated campaign, when the votes were counted Bhutto's PPP won overwhelmingly. The PNA then accused Bhutto of massive voter fraud.

The PPP had won 155 seats in the lower house of Parliament, the National Assembly, with 58.1 percent of the total votes cast. The PNA secured only 36 seats, with 35.4 percent of the votes. The opposition had won in the Pashtun province and in all the major cities where they held large rallies, with the exception of Lahore. The PNA's poor showing in the Punjab province, only 8 seats out of 116, created the impression in the minds of almost everyone, including Bhutto himself, that the election results may have been altered.

Bhutto offered the PNA a compromise. He proposed reelection on the thirty-five to forty seats that observers said had been stolen. But the PNA was by now in the hands of virulently anti-Bhutto Islamists. They rejected any compromise and started violent street protests. The protests continued for several months, paralyzing the major cities and leading to curfews and martial law in some places.

While Pakistan convulsed domestically, the Carter administration considered ways of dissuading Pakistan from going nuclear. Deputy Secretary of State Warren Christopher drew up a list of “significant benefits” that might induce Bhutto to change his mind. “Bhutto's overriding consideration,” Christopher stated, “remains his determination to stay in power.” In Christopher's final analysis, Bhutto's decision
on how to deal with the nuclear processing question would be determined by his judgment of the effect it would have on his domestic position.

Christopher's list of incentives included cash sales of F-5E and A-7 aircraft as well as air defense radar, general utility helicopters, and C-130 transport planes. He also proposed $100–135 million in economic assistance over two to three fiscal years as well as “generous” food aid under PL 480. But Carter wrote, “No” in his own handwriting on virtually all the items on Christopher's list. He also scribbled, “Don't favor Pakistan buying nuclear processing plant from France.”
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Meanwhile, the PNA's demonstrations became more violent when its leaders switched from calling for new elections to demanding an Islamic government. Barred from rallying in open spaces, protestors now gathered in mosques and offered themselves for arrest or death in the name of Islam.

Bhutto tried to stem the religious tide by introducing prohibition and shutting down nightclubs. The weekly holiday was moved from Sunday to Friday. But the religious fervor of fanatical protestors did not subside. Clashes between police and protesters continued, and in some towns the army was called in to shoot demonstrators.

During the US presidential election campaign Carter had spoken of human rights as an important concern for US foreign policy. With this in mind, his administration felt compelled to deal with reports of the street violence in Pakistan. The State Department blocked a $68,000 shipment of tear gas, enraging Bhutto and boosting the opposition supporters.

Since the days of Iskander Mirza and Ayub Khan, Pakistanis had an overstated sense of US involvement in their domestic affairs. Meetings between diplomats and local politicians, deemed routine in most countries, were seen as signals of what the superpower might want locally. The Americans, for their part, had not understood Pakistani national narcissism. The State Department's decision regarding tear gas might have been part of the global policy on human rights, but in Pakistan it was seen as specifically targeting the country's embattled leader.