Risky is the New Safe (5 page)

Turns out that not all women want to answer a videophone when they have curlers in their hair. And most guys don't like to answer the videophone naked and wet from the shower. I usually do four or five Skype conferences a week, and about 90 percent of the time, they're done by audio, without the video. (Although little kids now use tablets to call each other, using apps like FaceTime. My friend's four-year-old talks with all her friends using her iPad, screen within a screen. With just a phone and no video they lose interest fast.)

So where will video end up in the equation? I don't know, and neither does anyone else, but the smart bet is that it will play a huge factor. And speaking of video, this takes us back to the issue of television, movies, and streaming Internet.

The question is not how many broadcast networks will survive or how many cable networks are offered in your local market. Soon there will be seven billion networks with seven billion programming directors. You and every other human on earth will program
The My Network (TMN)
.

You'll order new pilots, season-long episodes of dramas, sitcoms, reality and talk shows, sporting events, holiday specials, concert presentations, and more—just like network executives do now. The difference is that TMN will be customized exactly to your tastes; it will gather and provide content that's been designed uniquely for you from everywhere.

So your version of TMN might include:
The X Factor
(U.S. and U.K. editions);
CSI
(Miami, New York, and Lunar editions);
Game of Thrones
; Seth Godin's blog; Gary Vaynerchuk's Tumblr feed; Shane Dawson and Mystery Guitar Man's YouTube channels; the Twitter feeds from your “fave” list; all Manchester United matches; new releases from Maroon 5, the Fray, and Lady Gaga; your Empire Avenue stock price feeds; your E*TRADE real stock price feeds; all
Avengers
and
Star Trek
sequels; Sirius XM radio; breaking news updates from CNN; all the feeds from your Facebook friends and LinkedIn groups; the Pinterest boards on waterskiing and comic books; the electronic versions of the
Wall Street Journal
and
ESPN
the magazine; your iTunes playlist; this semester's classes from your online university; electronic discount coupons from any business you're about to walk or drive by; and, of course, all new books from me.

The last thing you're going to care about is on which network or channel you can find all these options or even the screen for which they were first created. You'll want to watch your network on your smartphone or wristwatch when you're at the mall, on your tablet during lunch break, and on the screen in your car while you're driving home (I know, this should be illegal). Your network will automatically load to your eight-foot-wide HD TV when you walk into your living room, and spontaneously switch to your computer monitor when you sit down at your desk.

Of course, this trend will be short-lived and eventually die when Google perfects their eyeglasses. And the glasses will be short-lived and eventually die when someone else puts the technology in a contact lens. And there will obviously be a retro trend back to screens, when the attention-deficit generation discovers that they can't watch six different screens at the same time in their lens, the way they did on satellite TV.

This is not 20 or 30 years in the future we're talking about here, kids. These innovations will be part of our lives way before this decade is over.

The legacy networks still don't get this. Instead of NBC scouting YouTube to discover their next television star, they need to change their paradigm and discover the next multichannel star they can offer to TMN.

The process is starting now. Netflix is creating original content, cable networks are developing their own shows, and YouTube is grooming the stars on their own platform. But all those lines between networks, channels, and screens are going to disappear. Instead of promos like “Tonight, 8 p.m. Eastern on FOX,” taglines will say, “Click here to get it
now
.”

All of this will open up
amazing
possibilities for entrepreneurs. The cost of entry to become a show producer, publisher, or movie director will drop dramatically. You can buy an HD Flip video camera nowadays for $200, and it does the job that required a $75,000 camera 15 years ago. A movie like
Titanic
, which originally cost $100 million dollars to make, might be done for
$100,000
in 2018. (Provided you can get Leonardo and Kate to work for a percentage of the revenue.) Meantime, James Cameron will be making the remastered version for about $100 billion, which will be done in virtual reality, so you can feel the freezing water splash on you and smell the chicken in the dining room scene.

The financial possibilities for all content creators—whether audio, print, or video (and throw in sensory)—are going to be beyond stunning. In the same way that iTunes completely revolutionized the music business, these technologies will remake dozens of other businesses, from publishing to entertainment, education to marketing, medical care to manufacturing.

Once again, this change won't be about the technology, the product, or the company offering it.
It will be about how consumers use the app to enhance their lives
.

The big boom in apps won't be the proprietary ones that companies create for their customers, although this will produce trillions of dollars in revenues. The biggest share will come from generic process apps—the ones that help you catch a cab, find a restaurant, locate a dance studio, check references on a dentist, rate a hotel, hook up for sex, and about 10 million other things I can't think of right now.

The US Airways app will tell you your gate and departure time. The process app will tell you the truth about how late it will take off. The Vito's Pizza app will allow you to order a medium pepperoni with extra cheese; but because it's compiled by actual customers, the process app will tell you if Vito washes his hands after using the bathroom.

Walmart is currently testing an iPhone-based, self-checkout system which allows you to scan your own purchases and pay without having to stop by a cash register. (For younger readers, “cash” was a form of paper and metal currency that people used to use in exchange for goods and services.)

Naturally, this app was pioneered by Apple, who is currently using it in many of their own stores. Customers browse a display of accessories, then scan and pay for what they want entirely through the app. They can enter, buy, and leave the store without ever interacting with a clerk.

Here's the really intriguing thing . . .

Most of this cataclysmic change is coming about because of the emergence of smartphones. What about all the other potential smart appliances?

For example, I just remodeled one of my bathrooms. I installed a new toilet that opens and starts playing music as you walk toward it, automatically flushes and closes the lid after you use it (obviously designed by a woman!), and has a built-in bidet, dryer, light, and radio. You control the light, radio, water temperature, and the angle and pressure of the water from an electronic track pad remote control. The manufacturer doesn't categorize it as a smart toilet, but I certainly would. How long before we have smart refrigerators that notice when you get down to your last three cans of Dr. Pepper and automatically reorder your next 12-pack? The people who facilitate that process with technology, inventory control, payments, and delivery will make fortunes. Imagine the possibilities of smart ovens, washer/dryers, and other appliances.

Gamification is exploding right now. Empire Avenue added a gaming aspect to social media, and it's gained a passionate following of devotees. (Like me.) Even some online dating sites are now adding games to the equation. People seem to love the social interaction, competition, and entertainment values of sites and mobile apps that offer this. Where will they end up? No one knows—and anyone who says they do is lying.

There is another development that may provide more sea changes in society than everything we've discussed so far: That's when virtual reality comes into its own.

As I mentioned earlier, most people today are bored to tears with their lives. They just want to be entertained. That's what will drive all the content we just looked at.

But when things get virtual, all bets are off . . .

Virtual life looks a lot more inviting than actual life. There are no enlarged prostates, traffic jams, or canceled flights in the virtual world. You'll never have to face rejection or ridicule, get fired, or lose a championship game. There are no chores to do, everyone likes you, and there's always a happy ending.

Now picture owning a holo-suite franchise (or better yet, offering the franchises) that provides people with a place to come after work where they can experience virtual-reality vacations, concerts, acting out their favorite movies or novels, climbing a mountain, defeating the Nazis (or the Klingons), playing guitar with Slash, singing a duet with Placido Domingo, hitting a home run off of Justin Verlander, dropping the bass like Skrillex at Ultra, blocking the shot from Lionel Messi, or drinking tea with Jesus.

Now, we're not talking about
watching
believable movies of these experiences. You will actually be able to take part in them as though you were there. You'll experience sight, taste, sound, smell, and touch; feel your heart race, the tingle of breeze on your neck, or the perspiration rolling down your back.

This industry will create trillions in income for developers, programmers, authors, graphic designers and animators, center owners, and their marketers. It will probably also create serious mental health issues for millions of people and generate great tension in millions of relationships, which, in turn, will generate more trillions of dollars for addiction centers, therapists, psychologists, marriage counselors, and drug companies. And we haven't even discussed the mother of all consumer products: sex.

Consider all the sex toys available now, hook them up to manually pleasure whatever organs or orifices float your boat, augment with sensors all over your body, create your ideal script, and add the program that projects the perfect partner—either a specific movie star you choose, or your perfect match customized from a catalog of hair and eye color, facial features, and body parts.

You and your partner (or partners) will be as wild and kinky as you can possibly fantasize. (And for those of you with more discriminating tastes, you can opt for pedophilia, bestiality, or necrophilia—without the inconvenience of prison!)

You think guys today desert their families and spend their kids' college fund on a gambling junket to Vegas? What do you think they'll do when offered this option? This industry alone could cause a catastrophic breakdown in the family unit, long-term relationships, and the institution of marriage. (A societal change that will again offer trillions of dollars more for all those people, mentioned above, who help with that sort of thing.)

If the woman (and it will probably be a woman) who perfects virtual reality sex is able to protect the technology with a patent, she will become the richest human being on earth—at least until human cloning becomes accepted and some third-world nation starts producing sex-worker clones. Then, the virtual reality sex business craters overnight.

Remember:
When everyone else is zigging, you want to be zagging
.

You might be 50 or 60 years old and incredibly frightened by technology. I'm 53 and approached it kicking and screaming, so I feel your pain. But I don't think this computer fad is going to blow over.

That antisocial kid who tunes out the rest of the world to play video games all day will be uniquely qualified to pilot an asteroid-mining spaceship, program those virtual-reality vacation packages, or perform heart transplant surgery—which of course, he'll do remotely from the control room, using robotics and a joystick.

Mobile, social media, and apps are going to transform every aspect of our lives. You can't sit these out. And truth is, once you get over your fears, the technology is pretty simple to understand. And the way the technology is advancing, the risk continues to diminish. It becomes easier to use, is accepted earlier, and the cost keeps coming down.

No matter what business you are in—whether you're an international oil company or a movie studio, a neighborhood beauty salon or a chiropractor—technology is changing everything. It will impact the way you run your business, market it, and manage it. These new technologies will present many challenges for all companies; however, they'll also create very lucrative opportunities for those willing to take risks.

You want to be out
in front
of the charge. But you have to keep in mind that change isn't really about the technology itself: It's all about how people will use technology to solve problems and make their lives easier or more enjoyable. If you can figure that out, you'll become very wealthy indeed. And while you may think you need a crystal ball to do that, that's really not the case.

Here's the other really intriguing thing about the future: Most of it can actually be predicted with an amazing degree of accuracy
.

Check out the book
Flash Foresight
by Daniel Burrus with John David Mann. It's an insightful look at the kinds of change we can look at to find certainty. Once you understand the difference between cyclic versus linear change and soft versus hard trends, predicting the future gets a whole lot easier—and a whole lot more lucrative.

Keep one thing in mind: It's not about the tech. It's about the few who figure out how people want to use that tech.