Sea of Lies: An Espionage Thriller (19 page)

Eyes locked on Wang, Yi continued in a monotone, “That’s excellent news, Comrade.” Turning to one of two aides standing behind him, Yi said in a sotto voice, “Go next door and tell Admiral Qiu that I don’t need him after all. And find out where Zhao is, will you?”

He turned back to the table. “Let us begin. I delayed starting in the hope that Rear Admiral Zhao Zhiyuan would also be in attendance.”

Looking around the table, he continued, “There will be no minutes, as this group does not officially exist. Are we clear?”

Liu and Kaili exchanged startled looks. This was a new wrinkle. The three of them nodded, and Kaili conspicuously turned her notepad upside down and holstered her pen.

“Four months ago, China and Iran entered into a joint venture. We modeled the JV on the 2013 Dark Seoul partnership that made cyberattacks on South Korea banks and broadcasters. Comrades in PLA Unit #61398 developed the malware, and we used the North Koreans as our proxies. Both parties shared the product.”

Director Liu commented dryly, “As I recall, the attacks were tracked to a China IP address, leaving us with an international black eye.”

Yi addressed the older man, “Director Liu, I understand your irritation that the Dark Seoul program was run outside the MSS. This is why, at your request, I have included not one, but two MSS officials in this meeting.”

Looking at the admiral, he said, “Today we have six cadres from Unit #61398 working in Beirut with a dozen Iranian counterparts. Our people write the code, identify the exploits and otherwise find openings in our foe’s networks. Then we infiltrate the target, in this case the US’s satellite imagery processing servers. The Iranians set up the offshore server array, rented data centers and otherwise worked to obscure the source of the attack. Ultimately it will be traced back to Iran because they are primitives in cyberwarfare. This is why we chose them: so they would be detected. Iran is so keen to take revenge on the US after Stuxnet that the Persians don’t care about the repercussions. The Iranians want to make Operation Menander look like it’s entirely their work to bolster their national prestige and regional influence.

“We started in December and the PLA team's programming is now complete. I understand it is our best work ever, with the malware already in place and awaiting activation. The longer we wait, the greater the likelihood of detection. As I said earlier, Menander’s target is the NGA servers. We will cripple and confuse their image processing capabilities, and may be able to take them offline altogether for several days.”

Eyes wide in surprise, Liu leaned forward and sputtered, “That’s the same as a declaration of war!”

Yi ignored him. “There is more. Our MSS comrades have duped the US into thinking the NSA has tapped our coastal radar networks and submarine tracking capabilities.”

Kaili and her boss stiffened at this unwarranted revelation of
Dolphin
, but stayed silent. Admiral Wang leaned forward.

Anticipating a question, Yi said, “Admiral, the details aren’t important. Just be aware that, thanks to MSS’s Counter Intelligence Department’s superb work in creating
Dolphin
, we are in a position to feed false information to the Americans regarding offensive and defensive radar findings, land-based missile readiness and submarine tracking data, among others. As a result of this deception, the Navy’s
Polar Bear
program takes vital steps toward becoming reality.”

So recently praised, Kaili seized her chance to fish for information. “Comrade Yi, can you share more details about
Polar Bear
?”

“
Polar Bear
embodies the principal foreign policy objectives of President Gao and the PSC.
Polar Bear
has two goals. First, reclaim the Diaoyu Islands from the illegal occupier, Japan. This will send a strong signal across the Pacific that it is futile to oppose China in the matter of disputed offshore territories. Second, sink a US nuclear aircraft carrier, and in so doing, permanently flush the US Pacific fleet east of the First Island chains.”

Director Liu couldn’t restrain himself, a vein prominently bulging in the middle of his forehead. His skinny arms and liver-spotted hands gesticulated. “That’s the sort of nonsense we expect from junior officers at a war gaming off-site. First, short of using tactical nuclear weapons, we don’t even know if we can destroy a US nuclear carrier. Our largest anti-ship ballistic missile—the DF-21D—has never been tested at sea, and certainly not against a moving target deploying clutter and electronic countermeasures. Second, if by some chance we actually
did
sink a carrier, the US counterattack would destroy most of our military capability. Unless we turned it into a nuclear confrontation, which is completely unthinkable given the huge disparity in weaponry and delivery capabilities. For what, a few piles of rocks in the East China Sea?” Liu stopped abruptly and poured himself more tea, hands shaking.

Admiral Wang replied, “Comrade Liu, your information is out of date. Recent breakthroughs in gallium nitride semiconductor designs have greatly increased the speed of our ASBMs while improving the terminal guidance system accuracy to where we can hit a carrier maneuvering at fifty kilometers an hour. One direct hit is all that is needed, and we can launch three DF-21Ds if necessary. The range of the DF-21D has gone from 1,600 to 2,500 kilometers, allowing us to site our batteries out of range of carrier-based aircraft. We now refer to the DF-21D as ‘the carrier killer.’”

Liu raised his voice. “That is if the Americans don’t destroy our missiles prelaunch once they determine what you are up to.” Kaili couldn’t remember ever seeing him so angry.

“That’s the beauty of
Dolphin
. The Americans won’t know that we have mobilized until it’s too late.” Secretary Yi was beaming.

“That’s not strictly true, Comrade Secretary Yi.” Kaili was treading carefully. “The false information feeds aren’t in real time. In addition, SR-72 surveillance overflights will detect movements sufficiently far in advance to allow a preemptive strike even if the NGA is blind. The US may even have antiballistic missiles that can shoot down our ASBMs.”

“Not at the DF-21D’s newly doubled Mach 10 reentry speed,” Wang said.

Yi had been waiting for this moment. He opened up a spiral notebook and consulted his notes, polishing a speech meant for another audience. “The US is in terminal decline. It can’t afford the wars it’s already fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. It’s too weak to honor its NATO obligations. Its president is indecisive. Meanwhile, China is the world’s most populous country. We are the largest trading nation and soon will be the wealthiest. But without control of the Near Seas—the Yellow, the East China and the South China—China cannot protect the ocean commerce that feeds us. Do you realize, Comrade Liu, that China imports half our oil, of which eighty percent passes through the Straits of Malacca? As long as the US and its proxies control these sea lanes, China’s prosperity is held hostage. This is the perfect opportunity to push back the US Navy and permanently alter the balance of power in the Western Pacific.
Menander
will blind the NRO satellites at this crucial moment. What the Americans cannot see, they cannot prevent.”

Liu found himself in the unusual position of being the dove at the table. “Treaties state that attacks on satellites are tantamount to nuclear first strikes.”

“And so they do, Comrade. Even so, Iran will launch the attack, leaving China blameless.
Menander
isn’t shutting down just the satellites over China. It will take out all NGA imaging processing servers globally.” Yi spoke with the assurance civilians assumed when they’d bought into a hypothetical chain of expected outcomes without having lived through the messy reality of war. Liu thought Yi’s lack of doubts almost as disturbing as his words.

The admiral weighed in, “China cannot become a global military power without a blue ocean navy. We can’t become that if we remain hemmed against our own coast. Implementing
Polar Bear
makes that goal possible after over a decade of preparation. China has built up our long-range precision missiles. We’ve invested billions to enlarge our submarine fleet and made our subs so quiet the Americans have problems tracking them. We bootstrapped our cyberwarfare expertise to where we stand alongside Russia and the US as global leaders. With these latest developments—the
Dolphin
deception and Operation Menander—the odds tip in our favor that
Polar Bear
succeeds.

Yi added his piece. “When the time is ripe, the Navy will provoke a confrontation with Japan in the largest of the Diaoyu chain, Diaoyutai Island. We will give Japan a bloody nose, land several dozen troops and create other provocations. By treaty the US is obligated to defend any attack on the Diaoyus. Even the indecisive Obama will be forced to act. We will lose some troops, but that is a small sacrifice measured against
Polar Bear’s
ultimate objective. Once the US strikes at our forces in and around the Diaoyus, we will respond by firing our ASBMs. With Operation Menander underway, the NRO satellites will be down. Our missiles will destroy or disable the nearest carrier. China will declare a unilateral ceasefire and bring in our friends at the UN to ensure it sticks. We might even agree to withdraw from Diaoyutai—at least for the time being.”

Wang’s grin signaled his agreement with Secretary Yi. Kaili thought them both war-mongering ideologues, and not very bright ones at that.

“You propose sinking a US nuclear aircraft carrier and then calling for a ceasefire? You think the UN will protect us? We barely have
one
functioning aircraft carrier. Japan has three. The US has ten
Nimitz
-class nuclear supercarriers. And we’re proposing to sink one and say we’re sorry? Admiral, I think the PLA leadership has been drinking
maotai
after breakfast. This is ludicrous.” Liu’s voice raised half an octave with the last phrase, and he slumped back into his chair.

Yi was waiting. “Comrades, this approach is not without risks, but the rewards are enormous. The US treats the Pacific as its private lake, keeping us pinned against our seaboard. The centerpiece of our naval strategy is to deny the sea to our US rivals while expanding our own Navy’s reach. Do you really think that Japan, Philippines, Korea and Taiwan will find solace in their current treaties when the US fleet is at anchor in Hawaii or Singapore? They will all have to accept China as the only legitimate guarantor of their security. 

“Since the president took power, his all-encompassing goal has been for China to take its rightful place at the table of great nations. Comrade Gao is a student of US history and he knows the US needs but a small shove to send it tumbling off its lofty perch. The Tet Offensive in 1968 cost North Vietnam 110,000 dead, versus ten thousand for the US and South Vietnam. And yet the US troop withdrawals began soon after as public support for the war disappeared and never recovered. In 1993, the US suffered fewer than one hundred twenty casualties in Mogadishu versus over one thousand for the Somalis, yet these were sufficient to lead the US to pull out and never return. Neither the US public nor politicians have the stomach for prolonged bloody conflicts. Today, nothing has changed.

“Naval power shapes political and economic realities. Only when China pushes the US Navy away from the First Chain islands of Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Philippines will we become the dominant Pacific power. Did you know that a nuclear aircraft carrier costs thirteen billion dollars? That the US hasn’t had a carrier sunk since the
Hornet
in 1942? The psychological impact of losing an aircraft carrier would be so great as to immediately alter US strategy in the Pacific.”

“Or see China’s military destroyed and our country diminished to the point of regional irrelevancy.” Liu’s tone signaled that he didn’t expect anyone to heed the warning.

Yi continued. “President Gao and I believe the key to minimizing US military response is the isolation of Operation Menander from our other actions, particularly the invasion of the Diaoyu Islands and the ASBM firings. Therefore, it is imperative that Iran’s actions not be connected to China in any way.”

Liu’s tone was caustic. “So why are we here today if you’ve already made up your minds?”

Yi ignored the interruption. “Iran is always difficult to deal with. Persians are emotional, not practical. So after the Unit #61398 team concluded its work days ago, the Iranians refused to let them leave. The project team works out of an underground facility in a Hezbollah-controlled neighborhood in Beirut. This is where Iran headquarters its cyber army, so it was most convenient to them that our comrades be based there. The official explanation was that the Iranians may need help in implementing
Menander
, so they want our staff on-site. That was not only contrary to our prior agreement, but it was also a lie.

“Complicating matters, the Iranians next told us they wanted to wait until May to launch Operation Menander to coincide with an auspicious day on the Muslim calendar. Can you believe this nonsense? Last week,
Menander’s
architect Rear Admiral Zhao flew out to speak with them.

“Comrade Zhao arrived in Beirut on Tuesday. The Iranians were certainly not of the impression that they needed China’s assistance to initiate and manage
Menander
. There had to be other factors at work.

“Zhao rerouted to Tehran, where he learned in a series of ambiguous meetings that Iran would hold off initiating Operation Menander—and keep our staff locked up in Beirut—unless we helped them in some unspecified way. Thursday, Zhao left a short message with our embassy before boarding a flight to Bahrain. He seemed excited about a breakthrough and said he would explain everything Monday—that’s today—at this meeting. However, as he’s not here, I’m afraid we don’t know anything more.”

Liu roused himself one last time, knowing full well that he’d already torpedoed his own career. “How can the head of Cyber Warfare Strategy and Unit #61398 be permitted to travel under civilian cover on commercial flights to and from the Persian Gulf?”