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Authors: Edward Klein

BOOK: The Amateur
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Axelrod’s update of the Clifford strategy is aimed at solidifying the Democratic Party base, reclaiming the middle, and dividing the country through class warfare against “millionaires,” “fat cats” and “the owners of yachts and corporate jets.” There are, however, several problems with this approach. To begin with, despite the conventional wisdom, Truman’s campaign against the Republicans in Congress was not the main factor in his come-from-behind victory against Republican Thomas Dewey in 1948. The economy had a lot more to do with it. The unemployment rate in 1947 and 1948 was a more than acceptable 3.5 percent, and the American economy was growing at a sizzling 6.8 percent in the first half of 1948. Compare that with Obama’s situation today, when unemployment is above 8 percent, and the economy is growing at an anemic 2 to 3 percent.
Second, in 1948, the Democratic Party was still the dominant force in American politics. Franklin Roosevelt was dead only three years, and many Americans still had fond memories of him and his New Deal. The Republicans, by contrast, were burdened by the albatross of “Hooverism”—a reputation for being indifferent to the plight of the poor and the struggling middle class. About 40 percent of the country identified with the Democrats back then. Today, only 33 percent identify as Democrats—and that number is declining all the time.
Third, “If Obama were a Republican, he could win with this sort of strategy: Repeat your party’s most orthodox positions, and then rip your opponent to shreds,” writes columnist David Brooks. “Republicans can win a contest between an orthodox Republican and an orthodox Democrat because they have the [mistrust] in government issue on their side. Democrats do not have that luxury. The party of [big] government cannot win an orthodox vs. orthodox campaign when [only] 15 percent of Americans trust government.... It’s suicide.”
Fourth, a strategy of class warfare threatens to damage the coalition that Obama put together in 2008. “The president won the lion’s share of everyone making under $35,000,” notes Mark Penn, a Democratic pollster.
He then did very poorly with middle class voters, but he got a remarkable half of the 26 percent of voters whose households make over $100,000. Never before have so many voters fallen into that category and never before had so many of them voted Democratic. Even [a majority of] the so-called top 1 percent making over $200,000 ... voted for Obama. Without similar support from those upper-income voters, Obama has no way to recreate the numbers that sailed him to victory.... What was so brilliant about the Obama 2008 election was that it brought together the upper and lower classes in a common mission of hope and change. Today, he is smashing apart that coalition....
 
When voters are asked in 2012, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” they can give only one possible answer: “No!” Therefore, the only way Obama can win a second term in the White House is by diverting attention from his incompetence and sliming his Republican opponent.
“Over $15 trillion in debt,” writes Joe Hagan in
New York Magazine
, “[more than 8] percent unemployment, yawning structural problems, a severely gridlocked government—Obama is in a box, and there is only one way out of this box: the low road.”
Obama knows this, and he is gearing up for a campaign that will in no way resemble his inspirational “hope and change” campaign in 2008. This time around, his goal is to raise an overwhelming $1 billion campaign chest, unleash super-PACs backed by the unlimited financial resources of such leftwing billionaires as George Soros, and get down in the mud and wage the ugliest campaign in modern American history.
“It’s a deeply pessimistic time,” says Steve Schmidt, who served as senior strategist to the presidential campaign of Senator John McCain in 2008. “Neither party is talking honestly or directly about the country’s problems and challenges. It’s going to be an extremely mean-spirited campaign, filled with nonstop attack ads. The whole focus will be on disqualifying the alternative, not on the country’s future. It will be very much the opposite of the hope-and-change theme of four years ago.”
Obama’s strategy will be to convince voters that
he
isn’t the issue—that his Republican opponent is the issue—and that, as France’s Louis XV famously said, “After me, the flood.” The idea will be to frighten voters away from the “scary” Republican alternative.
“This is a choice about who we are and what we stand for,” Obama declared, “and whoever wins this next election is going to set the template for this country for a long time to come.... The alternative I think is an approach to government that would fundamentally cripple America in meeting the challenges of the 21
st
Century.”
Cripple America
. Strong words that suggest a Republican president would devastate, ruin, and destroy the United States. One can just imagine David Axelrod sitting in his war room in Chicago and screening the infamous 1964 anti-Barry Goldwater TV commercial, which was created for President Lyndon Johnson by Tony Schwartz of Doyle Dane Bernbach, and which showed a little girl picking petals from a daisy while an ominous-sounding male voice counted down to the launch of a nuclear missile. As the camera slowly zoomed in, her eye was filled with an atomic mushroom cloud. The implication was that Goldwater would start a nuclear war and
cripple America
, destroy it. A voiceover from Johnson stated, “These are the stakes! To make a world in which all of God’s children can live, or to go into the dark. We must love each other, or we must die.” Then another voiceover, this one from sportscaster Chris Schenkel, said, “Vote for President Johnson on November 3. The stakes are too high for you to stay home.”
It’s a pretty safe bet that David Axelrod will try to devise an updated version of the “Daisy Girl” commercial in 2012, and that Barack Obama’s mantra will be:
The stakes are too high for you to vote for that frightening Republican.
“[Obama] is determined to make the election a contest between two policy alternatives, deliberately omitting the issue of competence,” says Dick Morris. “He’s like an incompetent employee hoping to save his job by advocating a broad-based shift in his corporation’s philosophy in the hopes that his bosses will ignore his own poor performance.”
To win reelection in 2012, Barack Obama must divert the country’s attention from his record of incompetence and amateurism. He doesn’t want to remind people that America lost its triple-A credit rating on his watch—a downgrade that Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina called a firing offense.
Republicans will have to remind them.
Obama doesn’t want to remind people that he increased the national debt by nearly $5 trillion—the most rapid increase in debt under any president.
Republicans will have to remind them.
Obama doesn’t want to remind people that he pushed through a bill that includes more than a trillion dollars in new healthcare spending and contains a 4.5 percent tax increase.
Republicans will have to remind them.
Obama doesn’t want to remind people that Jon Corzine’s bankrupt financial company, MF Global, which is under investigation by a grand jury for misusing clients’ money, was one of the top sources of contributions to Obama’s reelection campaign.
Republicans will have to remind them.
Obama doesn’t want to remind people of his erratic stand on illegal immigration, which has swung wildly between fast-paced deportations—removing nearly 400,000 illegal foreigners in each of the last three years—to a policy of virtual amnesty.
Republicans will have to remind them.
Obama doesn’t want to remind people of his inconsistency on environmental regulation—first pushing through burdensome, anti-business rules to toughen air-quality standards, then suddenly scrapping those rules to win over campaign supporters in the business community.
Republicans will have to remind them.
Obama doesn’t want to remind people that he was for lower taxes before he was for higher taxes; that he was for forcing Catholic-affiliated institutions to provide contraceptive and abortion insurance before he was against forcing them to go against their religious principles; that he was for removing terrorists from Guantanamo before he was against it; that he was for bringing the country together before he was for dividing it; that he was for a grand bargain with the Republicans over the debt ceiling before he was against it; that he was for energy independence before he rejected the Keystone Pipeline; that he was in favor of extending an olive branch to the mullahs in Iran before he was against it....
Republicans will have to remind America that Barack Obama is The Amateur.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
 
O
ne of the great pleasures of reporting a non-fiction book is that it forces you to get outside your zone of comfort. This is a good thing for a writer, for it compels you to do things you wouldn’t ordinarily do—speak with strangers, make new friends, and renew forgotten acquaintances. Perhaps most important of all, it shakes you out of your intellectual complacency, and makes you re-examine your assumptions and justify your conclusions.
This is the eighth non-fiction book that I have written in the past sixteen years, and like all the rest, it has been a great tonic for the mind, body, and soul. The result is the book you hold in your hands,
The Amateur.
The yearlong project was an exhilarating experience that took me to more than a half dozen cities, either in person or by telephone or email. I now have the additional pleasure of acknowledging and thanking the people who helped me along the way.
In Chicago, I wish to thank Ali Abunimah, Laura Anderson, Richard Baehr, Douglas Baird, Joe Bast, Sherry Bender, Jeff Berkowitz, Robert Blackwell, Bill Brady, Senator Roland Burris, Charles Butler, Shael Cigal, Forrest Claypool, Delmarie Cobb, Rick Cohen, Drew Davis, Monique Davis, Kirk Dillard, Alan Dobry, Richard Epstein, Carol Felsenthal, Rhani Flowers, Dr. Ari Friedman, Dr. Arnold Goldberg, Martin Greene, Jack Guthman, Leslie Hairston, Hermene Hartman, Bill Higginson, Steve Huntley, the Reverend Jesse Jackson Sr., Thomas Jarrett, Emil Jones, John Kass, Jerry Kellman, Shalom Klein, Ed Lasky, Judith Lavin, Michael Lavin, Dave McKinney, David Mendell, Louis Meyers, James Montgomery, Joe Morris, Steve Nassiter, Abdon Pallasch, Alice Palmer, Father Michael Pfleger, Tom Peters, Joel Pollak, Toni Preckwinkle, Jack Roeser, Steve Rogers, Milt Rosenberg, Dr. David Scheiner, Paul Schmitz, Dan Shoman, Ira Silverstein, Dick Simpson, Tavis Smiley, Alan Solow, Joel Sprayregen, Bob Starks, Father Bill Stenzel, Don Terry, Charles Thomas, Betsey Thurman, Eric Voogd, Lee Walker, the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, and Jeri Wright.
In Washington, D.C., I wish to thank Harry Alford, Mike Allen, Jeff Bader, Admiral Denny Blair, Josh Block, Cassandra Butts, John Castellani, Anthony Cordesman, Robert Dallek, Dan Danner, Kenneth Duberstein, Douglas Feith, Don Fierce, Vince Frilici, Bill Harlow, Barry Jackson, George Little, Doug Lute, Clifford May, Mark McKinnon, Maureen Orth, Daniel Pipes, Joe Pounder, Noam Scheiber, Bob Schieffer, Billy Tauzin, Jay Timmons, Armstrong Williams, and Sam Youngman.
In New York City, I wish to thank Walter Anderson, Sue Erikson Bloland, Dr. Robert Cancro, Sharon Churcher, Abe Foxman, Leslie Gelb, Ed Koch, John LeBoutillier, Ed Nardoza, Paxton Quigley, Brian Ross, Doug Schoen, and Liz Trotta.
In Boston, I wish to thank Bernard Cornwell, Nassir Ghaemi, Doris Kearns Goodwin, Elaine Kamarck, and Brian O’Connor.

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