The Case of the Drowning Men (11 page)

“Let’s take a look at some of the data that allow us to feel more secure about the idea that it was a plain old tragic accident that took the life of this student and the others who drowned.

“First, researchers have long been able to identify the development of urban myths (Knight, 2002). Two websites that present lists and analyses of urban legends are Snopes and Urbanlegends. The Snopes website writes that ‘A tale is considered to be an urban legend if it circulates widely, is told and re-told with differing details (or exists in multiple versions), and is said to be true.’ Scholars believe that individuals are prone to accept stories that do not directly contradict their personal experiences because they have an underlying need to increase their understanding of the world. In addition, conspiracy theories are kin to urban myths. Researchers know that the more ‘unexpected’ and larger the event is, the more likely the conspiracy theory (Knight, 2002). Consequently, we don’t think that a junkie in New York who overdosed is still alive, but perhaps Elvis Presley might be. We don’t think that most folks who die in car accidents were victims of a plot to kill them, but Princess Di was.

“Second, the data have to inform our decisions and how we view this event. If you were to find a squashed mouse in an elephant’s cage, how often would you jump to the explanation that a serial killer was involved? The elephant in this case is alcohol. Every single case has involved blood alcohol levels at or above the .20 level. Can many of you name times when you were “totally trashed” and nothing bad occurred? Of course. Nevertheless, that does not negate the fact that we know that alcohol slows the physical and mental responses and mitigates our ability to read and respond to cues.

“The leading cause of death for young men aged 15-24 is unintentional accidents. Men are more likely than women are to die because of an accident. Homicide and suicide are the next two most common causes of death for men aged 15-24. Alcohol has been found to be a factor in many of these events (Hingson, et al., 2002).

“The National Safety Council reports that in 1999, 647 15-24 year-olds died due to drowning, 592 were male. Indeed, males in this age range have a drowning rate that is ten times higher than that of females (3.1 vs. .3 per 100,000, respectively). In comparison, homicide researchers estimate that less than one percent of all homicides are committed by serial killers (Fox & Levin, 1999, p. 167).

“Let’s take a look using data. We have 8,148 undergraduates here at UW-L, 3,559 are male. Approximately 40% of males in college binge drink (or drink to get drunk) regularly (Hingson, et al., 2002). Data from 567 UW-L students suggests that 32% of UW-L males reported having 6 or more drinks the last time they partied. Therefore, on any given Friday night in downtown La Crosse there may be up to 1,140 very drunk 18-24 year old male UW-L students downtown. Even if the number of male UW-L students downtown was one-tenth of this estimate, there would be 114 drunken UW-L males downtown. Many may wander about after the bars close, some will wander toward the river. Every now and then, someone will fall in and drown.

“What about the ‘coincidences’? Let’s take a close look at these. They are what we call in the social sciences ‘illusory correlations’ – things that may appear related but are not or are explained by other events. Several websites now advance the theory that there is a serial killer loose in the upper Midwest praying on young college men [indicating] the following ‘coincidences’ among the victims:

1.
      
Mostly White males between the ages of 17-27

2.
      
Lived in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana or Chicago the area surrounding Lake Michigan

3.
      
Mostly students or recent graduates

4.
      
Most were high-achieving

5.
      
Most were in good physical condition or athletes

6.
      
Last seen out drinking with friends or at a party

7.
      
Were under the influence of alcohol

8.
      
Became separated from the friends with whom they started the evening

9.
      
All disappeared between the hours of 10 PM and 4 AM

10.
   
Were reported missing by friends or family

11.
   
The closed cases were all determined to be accidental drowning or possible suicides

12.
   
Many of those found drowned were found in the Mississippi River, Red Cedar River or Lake Michigan

13.
   
Victim's body, if found, had no signs of strangulation - gunshot - stab or other obvious sign of murder

14.
   
All disappeared between the
months of September and April.

“Where is the coincidence with these numbers? These are college towns with rivers. In college towns, there are many college-aged males. The upper Midwest is overwhelmingly European American. College men who drink tend to do so in bars. College men who drink tend to do so from 10 pm -4 am and between the months of September and April. Easily 30% of college males might match these characteristics. If you go back to our conservative estimate of 114 drunk male college students downtown, that would be 34 men every Friday night who fit the ‘coincidence’ profile.

“We’ve both heard a lot of questions the past few days.

“Q:‘Why don’t more students drown in Madison?’ A: Madison has a lake not a river. It gradually becomes deeper and is not moving swiftly.

“Q: ‘Why would he go to the river?’ A: Is it really so hard to imagine? He feels drunk. He thinks walking in the fresh air will ‘clear his head.’ He walks in the direction of the river. He feels nauseous and leans over the river to vomit, or he decides to splash his face with water. He slips. The river is 18 feet deep and moving rapidly.

“Q: ‘Why aren’t there female victims?’ A: Women are much more likely to be socialized to the dangers of being alone – especially while drinking. They have learned, and use, elaborate systems for checking on one another when going downtown or into other situations where they might be vulnerable to victimization.

“Does any of this make Jared’s death any less tragic? No. However, we should not jump to the extremely unlikely explanation that a serial killer is responsible rather than the extremely likely explanation that his death is an unfortunate mix of a high level of intoxication and a cold, swift river. Perhaps even more of a concern is that it is somehow more comforting for us to think that Jared’s death was caused by something we cannot control (e.g., a serial killer) rather than a cause we can control (not getting drunk, always keeping an eye on your buddies to ensure their safe return home). It is often harder to accept explanations that hit close to home - explanations that involve actions we ourselves have engaged in that put us at risk.

“We join you in your grief, but we urge you to use your critical thinking skills. For each of the questions you hear or ask, please try to think of the types of information you would need to know to help think through the various theories and hypotheses. We encourage you collectively to take action to prevent events like this from happening in the future. For example, what can you as an individual student do to prevent accidents and deaths that are alcohol related? How could the student body work together with the city of La Crosse to make the river’s edge and drinking downtown safer (such as the safety bus)?

“
Finally, we encourage you to make use of campus resources to assist you in the grieving process and in your education about alcohol and its consequences.”

Signed:

Betsy Morgan
, Ph.D., Chair of Psychology with an ongoing interest in cognitive biases.

Kim Vogt
, Ph.D, Chair of Sociology and Archaeology with a research specialty i
n
homicide

2004

Even in the
summer
months
or
in the
warmer
southern
regions
,
people don’t
generally
swim in rivers
.
T
hey
prefer to
boat on
them
or
to
fish
from the
safety of the
shore,
or
maybe
,
now and then
, if up to
a
challenge, do some whitewater rafting
.
B
ut
,
aside from these recreation
al activities
,
sensible folk
rarely venture in
to a river’s churning waters
to so much as dip their toes
.

A r
iver
is
deadly,
not only
because
it’s
deep and
murky
,
with all kinds of unknown things floating on the surface or submerged
just
beneath
it
,
but
because
it’s
swift moving
as well
,
its
powerful and
constantly shifting
currents
posing
the risk of death even
for
the strongest
of
swimmer
s
.

This is
the nature of
a
river
.
S
ummer
time
or winter
,
it can
kill.

Here in the
Great Lakes
r
egion of the
United States
our rivers are nearly impassable in
the
winter
months
,
frozen so thick in
various locations
that even commercial
boating
traffic grinds
practically
to a halt.
Th
en, as they begin their
rapid
thawing
i
n the spring
time
, the rivers
dangerously
swell
over their banks
, ravaging
the shoreline
with
ragged chunks
of ice
;
these
massive
flows
sometimes jamming so
badly in places
that
many
communities located
close
by
or
downstream
to them
are threatened
with
flash-flood
ing
.

Flooding
is
our Spring.

Of
the
many
U.S.
rivers
, t
he Mississippi
with its major tributaries
is the largest
river system
in America,
draining all or part of 32 states and
nearly
dissecting the country in half. It’s also the third l
ongest
in the world,
at
more than
3800 miles in length
dwarfed only by the Amazon and the Nile.

Nourished
in the north by the Missouri,
t
he Illinois and the Ohio
rivers
,
and along the way by the Arkansa
s, the Red and the Tennessee
,
the
immense
Mississippi River
itself
has its
primary
source in the
upper
most
mid
-
western
state of
Minnesota
,
at a place
1500
feet above sea level called
Clearwater County
.
There it begins to flow from Lake Itasca and
,
m
eandering south from this point
,
continues to
collect fresh water
f
rom an estimated 40% of
the United States’
lan
d
mass
. All of which is emptied
into the Atlantic Ocean at the Gulf of Mexico
.