The Faber Book of Science (66 page)

Localism doesn’t even have the virtue of being useful in times of peace. The problems of the world today are planetary in scope. No one nation, not even if it is as rich as the United States, as centralized as the Soviet Union, or as populous as China, can solve its important problems today. No matter how a nation stabilizes population within its own borders, no matter how it rationalizes the use of its own resources, no matter how it conserves its own environment, all would come to nothing if the rest of the world continued its
rabbit-multiplication
and its poisoning of free will.

Even if every nation sincerely took measures, independent of each other, to correct the situation, the solutions one nation arrived at would not necessarily match those of its neighbors, and all might fall.

To put it bluntly, planetary problems require a planetary program and a planetary solution, and that means cooperation among nations,
real
cooperation. To put it still more bluntly, we need a world government that can come to logical and humane decisions and can then enforce them.

This does not mean a world government that will enforce conformity in every respect. The cultural diversity of mankind is surely a most valuable characteristic and it must be preserved – but not where it will threaten the species with suicide.

All these requirements for change go against the grain. Who really wants to downgrade motherhood and regard babies as enemies? Who is comfortable at the thought of dissociating sex and parenthood? Who is ready to submit his national pride to a truly effective world government? Who is willing to abandon the attempt to get as much as possible out of the world and settle instead for a controlled and limited exploitation?

Yet the logic of events is actually forcing us in that direction, willing or not. The birth rate is dropping in those nations that have access to birth-control methods. Sexual mores are loosening everywhere. The people are growing more concerned about the environment, and the clamour for cleaner air, water, and soil is becoming louder every day.

Most of all, and most heartening, localism is retreating. There is
increasing social and economic cooperation among neighboring nations; a stronger drive in the direction of regionalism. More important still, there is a clear understanding that a major war, particularly one between the United States and the Soviet Union, is inadmissable. These two superpowers have quarrelled at levels of intensity that at any time up to the 1930s would have meant war – and now those quarrels do not even bring about a rupture in diplomatic relations. Not only must these nations not fight; they must not even snub each other.

But this motion in the right direction does not seem to be a matter of choice. Rather, stubborn humanity is inching forward to help itself only because the pressure of circumstance has closed all other passageways.

And this motion in the right direction is not fast enough. The population increase continues to outpace the education for birth control; the environment continues to deteriorate more rapidly than we can bring ourselves to correct matters; and, worse, nations still stubbornly quarrel, and continue to place local pride over the life and death of the species.

We must not only reorient our thinking toward motherhood, sex, growth and localism as we are beginning to do; but we must do it more
quickly.
Our society cannot survive another generation of the steadily intensifying stresses placed on it. If we continue as we are and change no faster, then by 2000 the technological structure of human society will almost certainly have been destroyed. Mankind, having been reduced to barbarism, may possibly be on the way to extinction. The planet itself may find its ability to support life seriously compromised.

The good earth is dying; so in the name of humanity let us move. Let us make our hard but necessary decisions. Let us do it quickly. Let us do it now.

Over-population threatens to become a global crisis unless drastic action to dramatically cut birth rates begins now, the American Association for the Advancement of Science was told yesterday. World population is already nearly 4 billion more than the 2 billion the planet
can comfortably sustain, according to an ecological study of natural resources to be published later this year. Fertile soil for growing crops, unpolluted water, fossil fuels and the flora and fauna on which humanity depends are all being depleted at a rate that will lead to catastrophic natural, social and political disasters by the end of the next century, a leading ecologist told the meeting.

David Pimentel, Professor of Ecology at Cornell University at Ithaca, New York, released the results of a year-long study into the optimum human population – the number of people the planet can comfortably support with a reasonable standard of living for all. The study concludes the present population of 5.6 billion will have to shrink to 2 billion. However, the projected population for 2100 is expected to be between 12 and 15 billion. Professor Pimentel acknowledged that drastic adjustments to cut the population to 2 billion will cause serious difficulties. ‘But continued rapid population growth will result in even more severe social, economic and political conflicts – plus catastrophic public health and environmental
problems
.’

For some years I have pestered friends and colleagues for help and suggestions. I should like to thank them all for their kindness and forbearance. I am particularly conscious of my debt to Dinah Birch, David Bodanis, David Cairns, Richard Dawkins, Michael Dunnill, Artur Ekert, Xandra Hardie, Harriett Hawkins, Kevin Jackson, Peter MacDonald, Sir John Maddox, Robert May and Claire Preston. Chris Reid and Julian Loose at Fabers have been unfailingly helpful and supportive. All the mistakes, of course, are mine.

J.C
.   

DANNIE ABSE
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Collected
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1948–1976 (Hutchinson, 1977).
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First
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Moon:
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Neil
Armstrong,
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Collins,
Edwin
E.
Aldrin,
with Grace Farmer and Dora Jane Hamblin (Little, Brown, 1970).
ISAAC ASIMOV
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Roving
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Fringe
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Future
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PETER ATKINS
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Creation
Revisited:
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DAVID BODANIS
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Web
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LYNDON BOLTON
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The
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Report
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the
New
Physics
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ITALO CALVINO
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Mr
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The
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What
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Madame
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PAUL DAVIES
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Quantum
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New
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My
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Gaia:
A
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Pluto’s
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Speak,
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The
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Photography:
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The
Six-cornered
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ALFRED NOYES
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Tales
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Paroxysms
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Perturbations
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On
Kissing,
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ABC
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The
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Broca’s
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The
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The
Year
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1990).
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Man
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The
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The
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From
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