The Folly of Fools (53 page)

159
Overconfidence in currency markets:
Oberlechner and Osler 2008;
arithmetic contests:
Vandegrift and Yavas 2009;
thrill seeking and overtrading in Finnish men:
Grinblatt and Keloharju 2008.

160
Agent versus object metaphors:
Morris et al 2007.

161
Metaphor is a key part of language:
Pinker 2007, Thibodeau and Boroditsky 2011;
invert meaning:
Hochschild, 2004;
euphemism treadmill:
Pinker 1994.

162
Concepts are in charge, not words; you relax when euphemism treadmill stops:
Pinker 1994.

163
Switch from
“
sex” to “gender”:
Haig 2004b;
the “awful” German language :
http://www.crossmyt.com/hc/linghebr/awfgrmlg.html
; see also Boroditsky et al 2003.

164
Name-letter effect:
Nuttin 1985, 1987.

165
Young Japanese women:
Kitayama and Karasawa 1997; letters that are
rarely encountered:
Nuttin 1987;
alleged widespread important effects:
Pelham et al 2002;
would create a spurious correlation:
Simonsohn 2011.

166
Name-letter effect on academic performance:
Nelson and Simmons 2007;
aspects of early parental style:
DeHart et al 2006.

167
Daily events can affect one’s name-letter bias:
DeHart and Pelham 2007;
deceiving down:
Hartung 1988.

168
Face-ism is lower in African Americans:
Zuckerman and Kieffer 1994.

169
Face-ism and the two sexes:
Archer et al 1983;
men shown in relatively intellectual professions:
Matthews 2007;
politicians’ self-presentations:
Konrath and Schwartz 2007.

170
George W. Bush’s head:
Calogero and Mullen 2008.

171
Anti-spam:
Stone 2006.

173
Self-deception and humor:
Lynch 2010, Lynch and Trivers 2011;
tickling a rat will produce laughter-like sounds:
Panksepp and Burgdorf 2003;
chimpanzees will pant-laugh:
Matsusaka 2004.

174
Split personalities:
Hilgard 1977.

176
Bernie Madoff:
Henriques 2010.

177
A book on gullibility:
Greenspan 2009.

178
You’re experiencing the ride:
New York Times.

181
Classic lie detector test
(accuracy overstated): Reid and Inbau 1977
; neurophysiological lie detectors:
Harris 2010, Abe et al 2007, Nunez et al 2005, Kozel et al 2005.

NOTES TO CHAPTER 9

184
For the French counterpart of the NTSB with less exacting standards:
Traufetter 2010;
Air Florida Flight 90:
Trivers and Newton 1982.

187
More accidents occur when the pilot is flying:
NTSB 1994.

188
Korea Airlines:
Gladwell 2008;
nurses and surgeons:
Pronovost and Vohr 2010.

189
Gol Flight 1907:
Langewiesche 2009.

191
Eldar takes command:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aero
flot_Flight _593.

192
Pilot error said to cause 80 percent of accidents:
http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/05nal.pdf
;
John F. Kennedy Jr. crash:
Vulliamy 1999.

193
Kirksville, Missouri, crash:
Wald 2006.

194
The current FAA rules:
Goo 2006;
Delta and forty-eight hours rest:
Negroni 2009.

195
Long history of alarming behavior under icing conditions:
Engelberg and Bryant 1995.

198
Buffalo crash:
Freeman and Wilber 2009.

199
Air Transport Association opposing safety improvements:
Hall 2005.

200
Bush administration dropped the ball:
Lichtblau 2005, Ridgeway 2004.

201
Feynman concluded:
Feynman 1988; see also Vaughan 1996.

202
Example of how not to do statistics:
Kitchens 1998.

203
Evidence presented to invite rebuttal:
Tufte 1997.

205
Columbia
disaster:
Langewiesche 2003, Sanger 2003.

206
Low-level engineers alarmed:
Glanz and Schwartz 2003.

208
Safety office a fraud:
Sanger 2003;
round table in the conference room:
Schwartz 2005;
self-criticism in organizations:
Wildavsky 1972.

209
EgyptAir :
Langewiesche 2001;
http://www.ntsb.gov.publictn/2000/AAB0201.htm

212
Saved by
lack
of self-deception:
Wilson 2009.

NOTES TO CHAPTER 10

218
Slaughter and dispossession of an entire people:
Stannard 1992.

219
Columbus in Hispaniola:
Stannard 1992.

221
Deliberate infection via smallpox blankets:
http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/mod/smallpox1.html
;
quotations from great leaders:
Diamond 2006.

222
Frequent US wars against nearby countries:
Loewen 2007.

223
United States alone now spends almost as much on warfare as rest of world:
Norton and Taylor 2009.

224
US history textbooks:
Loewen 2007.

226
Civil War:
Faust 2008;
later history of African Americans was in some ways more dreadful:
Blackmon 2008.

227
Rewriting of Japanese history:
Rose 2006, Masalski 2001.

228
Cromwell:
Siochru 2008.

229
Deletion of all references to the role of the Japanese Imperial Army in Okinawa:
Oshini 2007.

230
Genocide against Armenians:
Fisk 2005;
elementary-school students forced to watch film:
Rainsford 2009.

231
Genocide is presumably never pretty:
Fisk 2005.

233
Even by 1920:
McCarthy 1990;
Zionist project set from the beginning:
Flapan 1987.

234
“Could also affect the history of the future”:
Peretz 1984;
From Time Immemorial
:
Peters 1984;
for a detailed unraveling of the hoax:
Finkelstein 2003;
denial of Palestinian history built into curricula:
for 1948, Chomsky and Pappe 2010.

235
Founding of the state of Israel:
Flapan 1987.

236
All the land, part of which their distant ancestors may once have occupied:
El-Haj 2001;
Arabs reject 1928 assembly:
Porath 1974; Eban 1973.

237
War of 1947–1948:
Flapan 1987;
secret agreement with Abdullah of Transjordan:
Shlaim 1988.

238
Ethnic cleansing:
Morris 1987, Pappe 2006;
mal-genetics:
Finkelstein 2005.

239
Compensation for property stolen by Nazis:
Finkelstein 2003.

241
US is the elephant in the room:
Chomsky 1983;
Christian Zionism:
Collins 2007.

242
In 1891, four hundred people:
Mead 2008, Oren 2007;
Harry Truman and Israel:
Radosh and Radosh 2009.

243
Rumsfeld and Bush:
Draper 2009; for a raving US Christian Zionist, see Hagee 2006.

244
With full bells and whistles:
see organisms described by Dwyer 2011 and Finkelstein 2005;
the missing “the”:
Fisk 2008.

245
The truth about Israel’s theft of Arab land and water:
Zertal and Eldar 2007;
what can be said about Israel in Israel:
Carey and Shainin 2002.

NOTES TO CHAPTER 11

247
Four main causes:
Wrangham 1999.

248
Napoleon’s invasion of Russia:
Lieven 2010.

249
Chimpanzee raiding:
Wrangham and Peterson, 1996, Wrangham 2006;
recently, remarkable evidence:
Mitani et al 2010.

250
14 percent of human mortality:
Bowles 2009;
a percentage that thankfully has declined steadily:
Pinker 2011.

252
Self-deception encourages warfare:
Tuchman 1984.

253
Swimming:
Starek and Keating 1991.

254
Men less likely to read facial expressions correctly:
Williams and Mattingley 2006.

255
Men less likely to remember emotional information:
Bloise and Johnson 2007, Canli et al 2002;
in experiments less compassionate:
Singer et al 2006, but see Vol et al 2008.

256
Home-field advantage in sports:
Moskowitz and Wertheim 2011;
boost in testosterone on home field:
Neave 2003;
human holocaust such as World War I:
Johnson 2004; for self-deception and coping by the soldiers on the front, see Watson 2006.

258
Avocadoes and tomatoes, Noam Chomsky numerous times; a blunder into a catastrophe:
two books give most of the details cited, Ricks 2006, Packer 2005.

259
An ambitious five-year plan:
Wesley Clark,
democracynow.org
.
http://www.democracynow.org/2007/3/2/gen_wesley_clark_weighs_presidential_bid

260
Deliberative versus instrumental phase:
Fujita et al 2007.

261
The decision had to be sold to the larger country:
Rich 2006;
“could there be 100 percent certainty?”:
Lelyveld 2011.

263
Contrast with World War II is instructive:
Fallow 2004;
working groups walled off from decision-makers:
Fallow 2004.

264 I
dentical forces were at work in the UK:
Price 2010.

269 As shown conclusively later,
http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/MDE/15/042/1996/en/dbadaf6a-eaf6-11dd-aad1-ed57e7e5470b/mde150421996en.pdf
;
second Qana massacre
,
http://www.hrw.org/en/reports/2007/09/05/why-they-died?print
.

270
Israeli commentators:
Milne 2008;
talking heads on US television:
Governor Corzine, George Will, Governor Sanford, ex-Governor Romney, Senator McConnell.

271
Savagery continued for seventeen days:
Finkelstein 2010;
someone forgot to tell the soldiers:
Macintyre 2009, Breaking the Silence 2009; for historical background and logic of the Gaza front see Shlaim 2009.

272
Sold under patently false pretenses:
Siegman 2009.

274
Congo rapes:
Peterman et al 2011.

NOTES TO CHAPTER 12

278
Religion is a viral meme:
Dawkins 2006, Dennett 2006;
one such proponent of the meme-centered view:
Dennett 2007.

280
Religion expected to increase group cooperation:
Norenzayan and Shariff 2008;
pair of eyes on computer screen:
Burnham and Hare 2007;
God prime:
Shariff and Norenzayan 2007;
fear of God may reduce cost of selfish behavior:
Johnson 2009.

281
Religiosity and higher false opinions of self:
Trimble 1997;
religious sects outlast secular:
Sosis and Alcorta 2003;
more costly requirements better:
Sosis and Bressler 2003.

283
Male God and anti-female behavior:
see Ruether 2009.

285
Religion and health:
Lee and Newberg 2005.

286
Church attendance predicts later healthy behavior:
Gillings et al 1996.

288
Less ACC firing and religious belief:
Inzlicht et al 2009;
parasites and religious diversity:
Fincher and Thornhill 2008a.

289
Linguistic diversity:
Fincher and Thornhill 2008b.

290
High-parasite-load societies appear to be more xenophobic:
Fincher et al 2008, Thornhill et al 2009, Schaller and Murray 2008, Faulkener et al 2004;
the mere sight of someone else’s disease symptoms increases immune response of perceiver
: Schaller et al 2010.

292
Christianity’s change after Constantin:
Wright 2009.

293
Islam provides a nice example:
Wright 2009.

295
Biases in between-group transfers and Jewish in-group bias:
see Shahak 1994.

299
Effects of intercessory prayer:
Benson et al 2006.

300
Support for suicide attacks:
Ginges et al 2009.

NOTES TO CHAPTER 13

306
Gravity bends light:
shown by Arthur Eddington in 1919;
ant ratios of investment:
Trivers and Hare 1976;
recent work reviewed
: West 2009.

308
Langur male infanticide:
reviewed in Trivers 1985;
DNA evidence
: Borries et al 1999.

309
Aggression good for species:
Lorenz 1966.

311
Market forces will naturally constrain the cost of deception:
for an account of recent resurrections of this fallacy, see Krugman and Wells 2011 and Madrick 2011; see also Krugman 2009.

312
Trait evolved to fit the laboratory:
see relevant chapters in Hammerstein 2003; for a review of the fallacy, Trivers 2005.