The Next Decade

Copyright © 2011 by George Friedman

All rights reserved. Published in the United States by Doubleday, a division of Random House, Inc., New York,
and in Canada by Random House of Canada, Limited, Tonronto.

www.doubleday.com

DOUBLEDAY and the DD colophon are registered trademarks of Random House, Inc.

All maps created by STRATFOR

Jacket design by Emily Mahon
Jacket photograph © Chad Baker/Getty Images

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Friedman, George.
The next decade / George Friedman.
p. cm.
1. World politics—21st century—Forecasting. I. Title.
D863.F75 2011
909.83’1—dc22        2010043116

eISBN: 978-0-385-53295-2

v3.1

For Don Kuykendall,
Friend

I hope to have God on my side, but I must have Kentucky.

—A
BRAHAM
L
INCOLN

Rules are not necessarily sacred, principles are.

—F
RANKLIN
R
OOSEVELT

We cannot play innocents abroad in a world that is not innocent.

—R
ONALD
R
EAGAN

It is necessary for a prince who wishes to maintain his position to learn how not to be good, and to use this knowledge or not to use it according to necessity.

—N
ICCOLÒ
M
ACHIAVELLI

CONTENTS
 

Cover

Other Books by This Author

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS

AUTHOR’S NOTE

I
NTRODUCTION:
R
EBALANCING
A
MERICA

CHAPTER 1
T
HE
U
NINTENDED
E
MPIRE

CHAPTER 2
R
EPUBLIC,
E
MPIRE, AND THE
M
ACHIAVELLIAN
P
RESIDENT

CHAPTER 3
T
HE
F
INANCIAL
C
RISIS AND THE
R
ESURGENT
S
TATE

CHAPTER 4
F
INDING THE
B
ALANCE OF
P
OWER

CHAPTER 5
T
HE
T
ERROR
T
RAP

CHAPTER 6
R
EDEFINING
P
OLICY:
T
HE
C
ASE OF
I
SRAEL

CHAPTER 7
S
TRATEGIC
R
EVERSAL:
T
HE
U
NITED
S
TATES,
I
RAN,
AND THE
M
IDDLE
E
AST

CHAPTER 8
T
HE
R
ETURN OF
R
USSIA

CHAPTER 9
E
UROPE’S
R
ETURN TO
H
ISTORY

CHAPTER 10
F
ACING THE
W
ESTERN
P
ACIFIC

CHAPTER 11
A S
ECURE
H
EMISPHERE

CHAPTER 12
A
FRICA:
A P
LACE TO
L
EAVE
A
LONE

CHAPTER 13
T
HE
T
ECHNOLOGICAL
AND
D
EMOGRAPHIC
I
MBALANCE

CHAPTER 14
T
HE
E
MPIRE, THE
R
EPUBLIC, AND THE
D
ECADE

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

About the Author

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS