The Sleepwalkers (106 page)

91
. On Russian military measures, see Grey to Buchanan, 2 January 1913; Buchanan to Grey, 30 December 1912,
BD
, vol. 9/2, docs. 438, 419; on ‘mobilization', see Louis to Poincaré, 25 and 27 December 1912,
DDF
, 3rd series, vol. 5, docs. 122, 131, pp. 142–3, 153.

92
. On the situation in Austria, see Stevenson,
Armaments
, p. 262; on Russia: Pourtalès to Bethmann Hollweg, St Petersburg, 20 February 1913, PA-AA, R 10896.

93
. On the crisis and the subsequent climbdown, see Lucius to Foreign Ministry, 23 December 1912,
GP
, 43/1, doc. 12570; Buchanan to Grey, 30 December 1912, Grey to Buchanan, 2 January 1913,
BD
, 9 (2), docs. 419, 438; Louis to Poincaré, 25 and 27 December 1912,
DDF
, 3rd series, vol. 5, docs. 122, 131.

94
. On the impact of the winter crisis on Austro-Russian Balkan relations, see Samuel R. Williamson, ‘Military Dimensions of Habsburg-Romanov Relations During the Era of the Balkan Wars', in Béla K. Király and Dimitrije Djordjević (eds.),
East Central European Society and the Balkan Wars
(Boulder, 1987), pp. 317–37.

95
. Buisseret to Davignon, St Petersburg, 7 January 1913, MAEB AD, Russie 3, 1906–1913.

96
. V. I. Gurko,
Cherty i Siluety Proshlogo. Pravitel'stvo i Obshchestvennost' v Tsarstvovanie Nikolaya II v Izobrazhenii Sovremennika
(Moscow, 2000), p. 241.

97
. A. Yu Ariev (ed.),
Sud'ba Veka. Krivosheiny
(St Petersburg, 2002), p. 91.

98
. S. E. Kryzhanovskii,
Vospominaniia
(Berlin, 1938), p. 20.

99
. In 1910, Krivoshein even wrote to Stolypin asking for raised troop strengths along the Amur river valley on the eastern march of Russian settlement. Krivoshein to Stolypin, St Petersburg, 30 April 1910, RGIA, F. 1276, op. 6, d. 690, L 129–130 ob.

100
. Ariev (ed.),
Sud'ba Veka
, p. 189.

101
. H. H. Fisher (ed.),
Out of My Past. The Memoirs of Count Kokovtsov Russian Minister of Finance, 1904–1914, Chairman of the Council of Ministers, 1911–1914
, trans. Laura Matveev (Stanford, 1935), p. 349.

102
. I. V. Bestuzhev,
Bor'ba v Rossii po Voprosam Vneshnei Politiki Nakanune Pervoi Mirovoi Voiny
(Moscow, 1965) pp. 74, 162; Krivoshein also clashed with Kokovtsov over subsidized credits for farmers, a measure Kokovtsov opposed in the name of fiscal rigour; on the political tensions generated on both sides by Russo-German trade relations, see Horst Linke,
Das Zarische Russland und der Erste Weltkrieg. Diplomatie und Kriegsziele 1914–1917
(Munich, 1982), pp. 23–4.

103
. Ariev (ed.),
Sud'ba Veka
, p. 189.

104
. McDonald,
United Government
, p. 185.

105
. Paul Miliukov,
Political Memoirs 1905–1917
, trans. Carl Goldberg (Ann Arbor, 1967), p. 177.

106
. Sir George Buchanan,
My Mission to Russia and Other Diplomatic Memories
(2 vols., London, 1923), vol. 1, p. 71.

107
. Rossos,
Russia and the Balkans
, p. 19.

108
. Cited in ibid., p. 28.

109
. Ibid., p. 29.

110
. Sazonov's advice to Sofia: Sazonov to Nekliudov, St Petersburg, 31 October 1912; suspicions of France: Sazonov to Izvolsky, St Petersburg, 8 November 1912, both cited in Bovykin,
Iz istorii vozniknoveniya
, pp. 138, 142.

111
. Thus Sazonov's account of the Tsar's view, cited in Teodorov,
Balkanskite voini
, p. 192.

112
. Sazonov to Bobchev, 12 June 1913, cited in ibid., p. 233.

113
. Rossos,
Russia and the Balkans
, p. 192; Teodorov,
Balkanskite voini
, pp. 42, 212.

114
. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (ed.),
Report of the International Commission to Enquire into the Causes and Conduct of the Balkan Wars
(Washington, 1914), p. 264.

115
. Hall,
Balkan Wars
, p. 135.

116
. Wolfgang-Uwe Friedrich,
Bulgarien und die Mächte 1913–1915
(Stuttgart, 1985), pp. 21–26.

117
. Panafieu to Pichon, Sofia, 20 January 1914,
DDF
, 3rd series, vol. 9, doc. 118, pp. 139–41.

118
. Savinsky to Sazonov, Sofia, 1 February 1914,
IBZI
, 3rd series, vol. 1, 157, pp. 144–8, esp. p. 147.

119
. Friedrich,
Bulgarien und die Mächte
, p. 27.

120
. Department note, conditions for a Bulgarian loan, Paris, 16 February 1914,
DDF
, 3rd series, vol. 9, doc. 306, pp. 389–90.

121
. Malenic to Pašić, Berlin, 30 June 1914, AS, MID – PO, 415, fos. 613–20.

122
. Alexander Savinsky,
Reflections from a Russian Diplomat
(London, 1927)
,
pp. 215–23; Dard (French minister in Sofia) to Doumergue (French foreign minister), Sofia, 18 May 1914,
DDF
, 3rd series, vol. 10, doc. 246, pp. 379–82.

123
. Friedrich,
Bulgarien und die Mächte
, pp. 33–5; Doumergue to Izvolsky, Paris, 30 May 1914,
DDF
, 3rd series, vol. 10, doc. 305, p. 455.

124
. Matthew A. Yokell, ‘Sold to the Highest Bidder. An Investigation of Diplomacy Regarding Bulgaria's Entry into World War I (MA thesis, University of Richmond, 2010), pp. 33–5, viewed online at:
https://dspace.lasrworks.org/bitstream/handle/10349/911/10HIS-YokellMatthew.pdf?sequence=1
; Dard to Doumergue, Sofia, 29 May 1914,
DDF
, 3rd series, vol. 10, doc. 302, p. 452.

125
. Savinsky,
Reflections
, pp. 223–4.

126
. Samuel R.Williamson, ‘Vienna and July 1914: The Origins of the Great War Once More', in id. and Peter Pastor (eds.),
Essays on World War I: Origins and Prisoners of War
(New York, 1983), pp. 9–36, esp. p. 19.

127
. Czernin to Berchtold, Bucharest-Sinaia, 22 June 1914,
ÖUAP
, vol. 8, doc. 9902, pp. 173–6, here p. 174.

128
. The conversation between Sazonov and Bratianu is reported in Sazonov, ‘Audience text for Nicholas II', 18 June 1914, in
IBZI
, series 1, vol. 3, doc. 339, p. 296 (emphasis added); French Foreign Ministry, Department of Political and Commercial Affairs (Europe), ‘Note pour le Président du Conseil', Paris, 11 July 1914, AMAE NS, Russie 46 (Politique étrangère. Autriche-Hongrie-Russie), fos. 312–4, here fo. 314.

129
. Buisseret to Davignon, St Petersburg, 25 November 1913, MAEB AD, Russie 3 1906–1914.

130
. Hartwig to Sazonov, Belgrade, 24 February 1914,
IBZI
, series 3, vol. 1, 314, pp. 311–13.

131
. Spalajković to Pašić, St Petersburg, 8–21 January 1914, AS, MID – PO, 416, fos. 420–21.

132
. Spalajković to Pašić, St Petersburg, 14–27 March 1914, ibid., fo. 451.

133
. Spalajković to Pašić, St Petersburg, 24 April–7 May 1914, ibid., fo. 475.

134
. Descos (French minister in Belgrade) to Doumergue (French minister of foreign affairs), Belgrade, 6 April 1914,
DDF
, 3rd series (1911–1914), vol. 10, doc. 80, pp. 124–6.

135
. Milos Bogičević,
Die auswärtige Politik Serbiens 1903–1914
(3 vols., Berlin, 1931), vol. 1, p. 280; Friedrich Würthle,
Die Spur führt nach Belgrad
(Vienna, 1975), p. 28.

136
. Hartwig to Sazonov, Belgrade, 14 January 1914,
IBZI
, series 3, vol. 1, doc. 7, pp. 5–6.

137
. ‘Austrian Sympathies',
The Times
, 18 October 1912, p. 5 col. B.

138
. Boeckh,
Balkankriegen
, pp. 26–7.

139
. F. R. Bridge,
From Sadowa to Sarajevo. The Foreign Policy of Austria-Hungary, 1866–1914
(London, 1972), p. 346; see also ‘Servia and the Sea',
The Times
, 9 November 1912, p. 7, col. A.

140
. [Wickham Steed], ‘The Problem of Albania',
The Times
, 18 November 1912, p. 5 col. A. The Russian pan-Slav and nationalist press took a similar line.

141
. Samuel R. Williamson,
Austria-Hungary and the Origins of the First World War
(Houndmills, 1991), pp. 127–8; Bridge,
From Sadowa to Sarajevo
, p. 347; a fine detailed study of the Prochaska Affair is Robert A. Kann,
Die Prochaska-Affäre vom Herbst 1912. Zwischen kaltem und heissem Krieg
(Vienna, 1977).

142
. Cited in Treadway,
Falcon and Eagle
, p. 125.

143
. Friedrich Kiessling,
Gegen den grossen Krieg? Entspannung in den internationalen Beziehungen
(Munich, 2002), p. 186.

144
. Cited in Treadway,
Falcon and Eagle
, p. 137.

145
. Rapaport to Vredenburch, Belgrade, 23 April 1913, NA, 2.05.36, 9, Consulaat-Generaal Belgrado en Gezantschap Zuid-Slavië 1891–1940.

146
. Giers (Russian envoy to Montenegro) to Nicholas II, Cetinje [beginning of January] 1913 and 21 January 1913, GARF, Fond 601, op. 1, del. 785.

147
. Buisseret to Davignon, St Petersburg, 11 April 1913, MAEB AD, Russia 3.

148
. Buchanan to Nicolson, 1 May 1913, cited in Treadway,
Falcon and Eagle
, p. 148.

149
. For the text of this resolution, see Robert Elsie, ‘Texts and Documents of Albanian History', viewed online at
http://www.albanianhistory.net/texts20_1/AH1913_2.html
.

150
. This narrative follows the sequence plotted in Samuel R. Williamson's unpublished manuscript chapter, ‘Serbia and Austria-Hungary: The Final Rehearsal, October 1913'.

151
. Statement by the Serbian minister in Vienna, Jovanović, to
Neue Freie Presse
, reported in ‘The Albanian Outbreak',
The Times
, 27 September, 1913, p. 5, col. A; ‘Return of M. Pashitch to Belgrade;
The Times
, 1 October, p. 6, col. E.

152
. Williamson, ‘Serbia and Austria-Hungary', pp. 14–15.

153
. ‘M. Pashitch in Vienna',
The Times
, 4 October 1913, p. 5, col. C; Williamson, ‘Serbia and Austria-Hungary', p. 19.

154
. Williamson, ‘Serbia and Austria-Hungary', p. 21.

155
. ‘Servian Aggression in Albania',
The Times
, 16 October 1913, p. 7, col. C.

156
. Cited in Williamson,
Austria-Hungary
, p. 153.

157
. Report on Sazonov's comment in O'Beirne (British chargé d'affaires in St Petersburg) to Grey, St Petersburg, 28 October 1913, in
BD
, vol. 10 (i), doc. 56, p. 49.

158
. Paul Schroeder, ‘Stealing Horses to Great Applause. Austria-Hungary's Decision in 1914 in Systemic Perspective', in Holger Afflerbach and David Stevenson (eds.),
An Improbable War
, pp. 17–42, esp. pp. 38–40.

159
. Major von Fabeck to General Staff, Berlin, 11 February 1913, attached: draft of a letter from Moltke to Conrad, Berlin, 10 February 1913, PA-AA, R 10896.

160
. Wilhelm II, marginal comment on a telegram from the Wolffsches Telegraphenbureau to Wilhelm II, Berlin, 4 November, 1912, in
GP
, vol. 33, pp. 276–7 (doc. 12321); Varnbüler to Weizsäcker, Berlin, 18 November 1812, HSA Stuttgart E50/03 206.

161
. Wilhelm II, marginal comment on Kiderlen-Wächter to Wilhelm II, Berlin, 3 November 1912, in
GP
, vol. 33, pp. 274–6 (doc. 12320).

162
. Wilhelm II to German Foreign Office, Letzlingen, 9 November 1912, in ibid., vol. 33, p. 302 (doc. 12348).

163
. E. C. Helmreich, ‘An Unpublished Report on Austro-German Military Conversations of November 1912',
Journal of Modern History
, 5 (1933), pp. 197–207, here p. 206. Thus Archduke Franz Ferdinand reported the content of the conversation; the Austrian ambassador Szögyényi reported a more aggressive posture, namely that the Kaiser had expressed a readiness to accept the risk of a war with all three Entente powers.

164
. Stevenson,
Armaments
, pp. 250, 259; Helmreich, ‘Unpublished Report', pp. 202–3.

165
. Wilhelm II to Franz Ferdinand (draft), 24 February 1913, PA-AA, R 10896.

166
. Szögyényi to MFA Vienna, Berlin, 28 October 1913,
ÖUAP
, vol. 7, doc. 8934, p. 512.

167
. Velics to Berchtold, Munich, 16 December 1913, ibid., doc. 9096, p. 658.

168
. Szapáry to Foreign Ministry, St Petersburg, 25 April 1914, ibid., doc. 9656, pp. 25–7.

169
. Lawrence Sondhaus,
Architect of the Apocalypse
(Boston, 2000), p. 120.

170
. Williamson, ‘Serbia and Austria-Hungary', p. 23; Hugo Hantsch,
Leopold Graf Berchtold. Grandseigneur and Staatsmann
(2 vols. Graz, 1963), vol. 2, pp. 499–500.

171
. Treadway,
Falcon and Eagle
, pp. 143–4, 145.

172
. Ibid., pp. 150–56.

173
. Stevenson,
Armaments
, p. 271; see also Williamson,
Austria-Hungary
, pp. 155–6.

174
. Williamson,
Austria-Hungary
, pp. 157–8.

175
. Norman Stone, ‘Army and Society in the Habsburg Monarchy 1900–1914',
Past & Present
, 33 (April 1966), pp. 95–111; on infantry numbers, see Holger Herwig,
The First World War
.
Germany and Austria-Hungary, 1914–1918
(London, 1997), p. 12.

176
. Kronenbitter,
Grossmachtpolitik Österreich-Ungarns
, pp. 146, 147, 149, 154.

177
. See the text of the convention in the appendix of George F. Kennan,
The Fateful Alliance. France, Russia and the Coming of the First World War
(Manchester, 1984), p. 271.

178
. Ibid., pp. 250–52.

179
. Hanotaux to Montebello (French ambassador to St Petersburg), Paris, 10 April 1897,
DDF
, series 1, vol. 13, doc. 193, pp. 340–46.

180
. Stevenson,
Armaments
, p. 125.

181
. For a discussion of these issues, to which my own account is substantially indebted, see Stefan Schmidt,
Frankreichs Aussenpolitik in der Julikrise 1914. Ein Beitrag zur Geschichte des Ausbruchs des Ersten Weltkrieges
(Munich, 2009), pp. 246–50; see also Murielle Avice-Hanoun, ‘L'Alliance franco-russe (1892–1914)', in Ilja Mieck and Pierre Guillen (eds.),
Deutschland – Frankreich – Russland. Begegnungen und Konfrontationen. La France et l'Allemagne face à la Russie
(Munich, 2000), pp. 109–24, here pp. 113–14.

182
. Friedrich Stieve,
Iswolski und der Weltkrieg. Auf Grund der neuen Doku menten-Veröffentlichung des Deutschen Auswärtigen Amtes
(Berlin, 1924), p. 45.

183
. On this issue, see D. C. B. Lieven,
Russia and the Origins of the First World War
(London, 1983), p. 48; Luigi Albertini,
The Origins of the War of 1914
, trans. Isabella M. Massey (3 vols., Oxford, 1953), vol. 1, pp. 372–3; Thaden,
Russia
, pp. 115–18; for Poincaré's apologetic account of these conversations which he denies had any political significance, see id.,
Au service de la France – neuf années de souvenirs
(10 vols., Paris, 1926–33), vol. 2, p. 202.

184
. Poincaré to Izvolski, Paris, 16 November 1912,
DDF
, 3rd series, vol. 4, doc. 468, pp. 480–81.

185
. Gerd Krumeich,
Armaments and Politics in France on the Eve of the First World War. The Introduction of the Three-Year Conscription 1913–1914,
trans. Stephen Conn (Leamington Spa, 1984), p. 28.