Unthinkable (79 page)

66.
 Office of Technology Assessment,
U.S. Oil Import Vulnerability: The Technical Replacement Capability
, OTA-E-503 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1991), pp. 12, 39.

67.
 George L. Perry, “The War on Terrorism, the World Oil Market, and the U.S. Economy,” Brookings Project on Terrorism and American Foreign Policy, Analysis Paper No. 7, Brookings Institution, November 2001, pp. 3–5.

68.
 For instance, see the conclusions of the superb report by Thomas
Donnelly, Danielle Pletka, and Maseh Zarif, “Containing and Deterring a Nuclear Iran: Questions for Strategy, Requirements for Military Forces,” American Enterprise Institute, December 2011,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/files/fp_uploaded_documents/111205_AEI%20Iran%20report%20text%20final%20Dec%206%202011.pdf
. Although they are careful to omit any direct statement of their preferences, numerous remarks in the report strongly suggest that they would very much prefer not to contain a nuclear Iran if it can be avoided; however, they ultimately conclude that there is a high probability that the United States will find itself doing so regardless.

69.
 Gal Luft, “Choke Point,”
ForeignPolicy.com
, July 19, 2012; interview with Robert McNally, Washington, D.C., February 2013.

70.
 McNally interview.

71.
 For an exploration of the utility of Sino-American cooperation on Persian Gulf and broader Middle Eastern matters, see Jonathan D. Pollack, “China: Unease from Afar,” in Kenneth M. Pollack et al.,
The Arab Awakening: America and the Transformation of the Middle East
(Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2011), pp. 298–304; Pollack,
A Path Out of the Desert
, pp. 419–430.

72.
 For a similar concern from a first-rate Israeli strategic thinker, see Evron, “An Israel-Iran Balance of Nuclear Deterrence,” p. 54.

73.
 See also Bracken,
The Second Nuclear Age
, p. 146.

74.
 Bruce O. Riedel,
Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America, and the Future of the Global Jihad
(Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2011).

75.
 Frederick W. Kagan and Michael O'Hanlon, “Pakistan's Collapse, Our Problem,”
New York Times
, November 18, 2007; David E. Sanger, “Obama's Worst Pakistan Nightmare,”
New York Times
, January 8, 2009; David E. Sanger and Eric Schmitt, “Pakistani Nuclear Arms Pose Challenge to U.S. Policy,”
New York Times
, January 31, 2011.

1.
 For a concurring view, see Shahram Chubin, “Extended Deterrence and Iran,”
Strategic Insights
8, No. 5 (December 2009).

2.
 Paul K. Kerr and Mary Beth Nikitin, “Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons: Proliferation and Security Issues,” RL34248, Congressional Research Service, February 13, 2013, p. 4.

3.
 Chubin, “Extended Deterrence and Iran.”

4.
 “President Obama's 2012 address to U.N. General Assembly (Full Text),”
Washington Post
, September 25, 2012.

5.
 “State of the Union 2013: President Obama's address to Congress (Transcript),”
Washington Post
, February 12, 2013.

6.
 Meghan L. O'Sullivan,
Shrewd Sanctions: Statecraft and State Sponsors of Terrorism
(Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2002), p. 289.

7.
 Timothy Garton Ash,
The Polish Revolution: Solidarity, 1980–82
, 3rd ed. (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2002); Timothy Garton Ash,
The Magic Lantern: The Revolution of '89 Witnessed in Warsaw, Budapest, Berlin, and Prague
(New York: Random House, 1990); Sarah B. Snyder,
Human Rights Activism and the End of the Cold War: A Transnational History of the Helsinki Network
(Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2011); Daniel C. Thomas,
The Helsinki Effect: International Norms, Human Rights, and the Demise of Communism
(Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2001).

8.
 Dima Adamsky, “The Morning After in Israel,”
Foreign Affairs
90, No. 2 (March/April 2011).

9.
 “Lieberman Orders ‘Day After' Plans for Tackling Nuclear Iran,” Reuters, October 25, 2010; author's interviews with various former senior Israeli officials.

10.
 Haim Malka, “Israel,” in Jon B. Alterman, ed., “Gulf Kaleidescope: Reflections on the Iranian Challenge,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 2012, p. 59.

11.
 For an argument that the United States should further assist Israel in developing a secure second-strike capability, see Bruce Riedel, “If Israel Attacks,”
National Interest
, No. 109 (September/October 2010).

1.
 For those interested in my argument for adopting a strategy along the lines of what became the “surge” and the Anbar Awakening, see Kenneth M. Pollack, “Securing Iraq,” Testimony Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, April 21, 2004; “Saving Iraq,” in
The Road Ahead: Middle East Policy in the Bush Administration's Second Term
, ed. Flynt Leverett (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2005); Kenneth M. Pollack, “Five Ways to Win Back Iraq,”
New York Times
, July 1, 2005, p. A19; Kenneth M. Pollack, “Iraq's Security,” Testimony Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, July 18, 2005; Kenneth M. Pollack,
A Switch in Time: A New Strategy for America in Iraq
, Analysis Paper No. 7, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution, February 2006; Kenneth M. Pollack, “The Right Way: Seven Steps Toward a Last Chance in Iraq,”
Atlantic
, March 2006, pp. 104–111. On my support for the surge itself, see Michael E. O'Hanlon and Kenneth M. Pollack, “A War We Might Just Win,”
New York Times
, July 30, 2007.

2.
 Thomas Donnelly, Danielle Pletka, and Maseh Zarif, “Containing and
Deterring a Nuclear Iran: Questions for Strategy, Requirements for Military Forces,” American Enterprise Institute, December 2011,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/files/fp_uploaded_documents/111205_AEI%20Iran%20report%20text%20final%20Dec%206%202011.pdf
, p. 7.

3.
 For a good overview of the history of U.S. nuclear accidents, see Michael H. Maggelet and James C. Oskins,
Broken Arrow: The Declassified History of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Accidents
(2007), available at LuluPublishing.com.

Abrams, Elliott. “The Grounds for an Israeli Attack.”
World Affairs
175, No. 1 (May/June 2012): 25–30.

Albright, David, Paul Brannan, and Jacqueline Shire. “Can Military Strikes Destroy Iran's Gas Centrifuge Program? Probably Not.” Institute for Science and International Security, August 7, 2008.

Alfoneh, Ali. “The Revolutionary Guards' Role in Iranian Politics.”
Middle East Quarterly
15, No. 4 (Fall 2008): 3–14.

Allin, Dana H., and Steven Simon.
The Sixth Crisis: Iran, Israel, America, and the Rumors of War
. New York: Oxford University Press, 2010.

Alterman, Jon B., ed. “Gulf Kaleidoscope: Reflections on the Iranian Challenge.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 2012.

Anrig, Christian F. “Allied Air Power over Libya.”
Air & Space Power Journal
25, No. 4 (Winter 2011): 89–109.

Ansari, Ali. “The Revolution Will Be Mercantilized.”
National Interest
, No. 105 (January/February 2010).

Baghat, Gawdat. “Nuclear Proliferation: The Case of Saudi Arabia.”
Middle East Journal
60, No. 3 (Summer 2006): 421–43.

———. “Nuclear Proliferation: The Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Iranian Studies
39, No. 3 (2006): 307–27.

Bahari, Maziar, with Aimee Molloy.
Then They Came for Me: A Family's Story of Love, Captivity, and Survival.
New York: Random House, 2011.

Bakhash, Shaul.
The Reign of the Ayatollahs: Iran and the Islamic Revolution.
Rev ed. New York: Basic Books, 1990.

Baldwin, David A.
Economic Statecraft.
Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1985.

Baram, Amatzia. “Deterrence Lessons from Iraq.”
Foreign Affairs
91, No. 4 (July/August 2012): 76–85.

Barkey, Henri J., and Uri Dadush. “Why No U.S. President Will Bomb Iran.”
National Interest
, January 27, 2010.

Barkey, Henri J., and Graham E. Fuller.
Turkey's Kurdish Question.
Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield, 1998.

Barrie, Douglas. “Libya's Lessons: The Air Campaign.”
Survival
54, No. 6 (December 2012/January 2013): 57–65.

Beres, Louis René, and General (USAF, ret.) John T. Chain. “Israel and Iran at the Eleventh Hour.” Oxford University Press blog, February 23, 2012, available at
http://blog.oup.com/2012/02/israel-iran-nuclear/
.

Bergman, Ronen. “Will Israel Attack Iran?”
New York Times Magazine
, January 25, 2012.

Betts, Richard K. “The Lost Logic of Deterrence: What the Strategy That Won the Cold War Can—and Can't—Do Now.”
Foreign Affairs
92, No. 2 (March/April 2013): 87–99.

———.
Nuclear Blackmail and Nuclear Balance.
Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1987.

———. “The Osirak Fallacy.”
National Interest
, No. 83 (Spring 2006): 22–25.

Bill, James A.
The Eagle and the Lion: The Tragedy of American-Iranian Relations.
New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1988.

Blight, James G., Janet M. Lang, Hussein Banai, Malcolm Byrne, and John Tirman.
Becoming Enemies: U.S.-Iran Relations and the Iran-Iraq War, 1979
–1
988.
Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield, 2012.

Bracken, Paul. “If Iran Gets the Bomb.”
Wall Street Journal
, November 17–18, 2012, p. C3.

———.
The Second Nuclear Age: Strategy, Danger, and the New Power Politics.
New York: Times Books, 2012.

Braut-Hegghammer, Malfrid. “Revisiting Osirak: Preventive Attacks and Nuclear Proliferation Risks.”
International Security
36, No. 1 (Summer 2011): 101–32.

Brodie, Bernard, ed.
The Absolute Weapon: Atomic Power and World Order.
New York: Harcourt Brace, 1946.

———. “The Development of Nuclear Strategy.”
International Security
2, No. 4 (Spring 1978): 65–83.

Brzezinski, Zbigniew.
Power and Principle: Memoirs of the National Security Adviser, 1977
–1
981.
Rev ed. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 1985.

Byman, Daniel L.
Deadly Connections: States That Sponsor Terrorism.
Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2005.

Campbell, Kurt M., Robert J. Einhorn, and Mitchell B. Reiss, eds.
The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices
. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2004.

Cheney, Dick, with Liz Cheney.
In My Time: A Personal and Political Memoir
. New York: Threshold Editions, 2011.

Choksy, Jamsheed K. “Are the Mullahs Losing Their Grip?”
World Affairs
175, No. 1 (May/June 2012): 17–24.

Chubin, Shahram. “Extended Deterrence and Iran.”
Strategic Insights
8, No. 5 (December 2009).

———. “A Grand Bargain with Iran.”
Foreign Affairs
90, No. 2 (March/April 2011).

———. “Iran's Strategic Environment and Nuclear Weapons.” In
Iran's Nuclear Weapons Options: Issues and Analysis
, ed. Geoffrey Kemp (Washington, D.C.: Nixon Center, 2001).

———.
Whither Iran? Reform, Domestic Politics, and National Security.
Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002.

Clarke, Richard A.
Against All Enemies: Inside America's War on Terror
. New York: Free Press, 2004.

Clawson, Patrick. “Adjustment to a Foreign Exchange Shock: Iran, 1951–1953.”
International Journal of Middle East Studies
19, No. 1 (February 1987): 1–22.

Clawson, Patrick, and Michael Eisenstadt. “Deterring the Ayatollahs: Complications in Applying Cold War Strategy in Iran.” Policy Focus No. 72, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, July 2007.

———. “The Last Resort: Consequences of Preventive Military Action Against Iran.” Policy Focus No. 84, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, June 2008.