Visions of the Future (79 page)

But quietly this year, 3D technology has finally taken off. The recently released Samsung 850 Pro
1
which uses 42 nm flash memory is competitive with competing products that use 19 nm flash memory. Considering that, for a regular flat chip, 42 nm memory is (42 × 42) / (19 × 19) = 4.9 times as big and therefore 4.9 times less productive to work with, how did Samsung pull this off? They used their new 3D V-NAND architecture, which stacks 32 cell layers on top of one another. It wouldn’t be that hard for them to go from 32 layers to 64 then to 128, etc. Expect flash drives to have greater capacity than hard drives in a couple years! (Hard drives are running into their own form of an end of Moore’s Law situation.) Note that by using 42 nm flash memory instead of 19 nm flash memory, Samsung is able to use bigger cells that can handle more read and write cycles.

Samsung is not the only one with this 3D idea. For example, Intel has announced
2
that it will be producing its own 32-layer 3D NAND chips in 2015. And 3D integrated circuits are, of course, not the only potential solution to the end of Moore’s Law. For example, Google is getting into the quantum computer business which is another possible solution.
3
But there is a huge difference between a theoretical solution that is being tested in a lab somewhere and something that you can buy on Amazon today.

Finally, to give you an idea of how fast things are progressing, a couple months ago Samsung’s best technology was based on 24-layer 3D MLC chips and now Samsung has already announced
4
that it is mass producing 32-layer 3D TLC chips that hold 50% more data per cell than the 32-layer 3D MLC chips currently used in the Samsung 850 Pro.

The Singularity
is
near!

ENDNOTES

1. The Samsung 850 Pro is available at
   http://amzn.to/1BifBPu
   .
   
2. Intel announcement is at
   http://www.extremetech.com/computing/194911-intel-announces-32-layer-3d-nand-chips-plans-for-larger-than-10tb-ssds
   .
   
3. Google’s entry into quantum computers is discussed at
   http://www.technologyreview.com/news/530516/google-launches-effort-to-build-its-own-quantum-computer/
   .
   
4. Learn about 32-layer 3D TLC chips at
   http://www.kitguru.net/components/memory/anton-shilov/samsung-confirms-mass-production-of-tlc-3d-v-nand-flash-memory/
   .
   

Abstract

Homo sapiens sapiens
is the only species that has learned how to harness the power of fire. The conscious generation and use of external energy plays a unique role in our human and cultural evolution, from harnessing fire to developing nuclear fusion. Humanity has gone through several energy “waves,” advancing exponentially from wood, coal, oil, gas, and eventually hydrogen/solar/nuclear in a continuous process of “decarbonization” and “hydrogenization” of our energy sources. The latest transition from fossil and scarce fuels to more renewable and abundant energy sources might not be easy, but it has already started.

The creation of an Energy Network or “Enernet” will allow us to connect the whole world and to increase, not reduce, our energy consumption. With the Enernet, energy and power will become abundant and basically free, just like information and bandwidth are today thanks to the Internet. Storage considerations are also important, but new batteries and other advanced technologies will make the Enernet more resilient and create positive network effects. This is fundamental for improving the living standards of all people around the world and for moving into the next planetary transition: energy is essential for solving humanity’s needs on Earth and for exploring and colonizing the universe.

I then define the “Energularity” or Energy Singularity as the time when humanity becomes a Type I civilization according to the Kardashev scale, that is, a civilization that has basically achieved total mastery of the resources of its home planet. Based on our current power needs, humanity is at around 0.72 on the Kardashev scale, but it could reach Type I status in about a century, or earlier. The “Energularity” is somehow similar to the concepts of the “Technological Singularity” (related to an intelligence explosion) and the “Methuselarity” (related to longevity extension). However, the “Energularity” emphasizes the exponential increase in energy consumption by our civilization on Earth, before we begin colonizing the Solar System and beyond.

The energy of the mind is the essence of life.

Aristotle, ca. 350 BC

Humans and Energy

E = mc
2
. Energy equals mass times the speed of light squared.

Albert Einstein, 1905

Many experts have advanced several theories about what makes humans different from other animal species. Humans have the largest brain-to-body mass and the largest encephalization quotient among all mammals. However, what caused it? Some scientists have written about the development of bipedalism and others about the development of language communication, both of which probably date from over 2 million years ago. Other scientists have considered the use of tools and the creation of technology as characteristically human. However, certain animals, including most primates, also exhibit signs of bipedalism, language communication, and even tool making, at least at a very basic level. But no other animals seem to use fire as humans do. Since fire was the first form of external energy generation (extrasomatic energy) adopted by humans, I believe that the way we use energy has also shaped our own evolution. After our early ancestors began to harness the power of fire, we have become increasingly different from all other species.

There is evidence of cooked food using fire from almost 2 million years ago by our prehuman ancestors, although fire was probably not used in a controlled fashion until about 500,000 years ago by
Homo erectus
. The ability to control fire was a dramatic change in the habits of early prehumans that eventually became
Homo sapiens sapiens
about 100,000 years ago. Making fire to generate heat and light allowed people to cook food, increasing the variety and availability of nutrients. Fire also produced heat that helped people stay warm in cold weather, enabling them to live in cooler climates, and fire also helped to keep nocturnal predators at bay.

The development of extrasomatic energy sources like fire has been fundamental to the growth of human civilization, and energy use seems to continue increasing almost exponentially into the future. Humans have used different forms of extrasomatic energy throughout the ages, starting with fire and including animal power, wind mills, hydropower, and different types of biomass until the 18
th
century. The sources of such extrasomatic energy have changed according to time and place, and such changes have accelerated in the last two centuries.

The evolution of energy sources in the United States of America (USA) is a good example of the changes in extrasomatic energy generation. Until the end of the 18
th
century, most energy production in the USA came from burning wood and other biomass. This began changing slowly with the growth of the coal industry during the 19
th
century. Another transition corresponded to the development of the oil industry in the 20
th
century, and still another “wave” could be identified with the relative growth of the gas industry in the early 21
st
century. Each one of these waves has been shorter since the different energy transitions have been happening faster and faster as shown in Figure 1.

Similar energy “waves” can also be identified in most other parts of the world. These transitions show a clear “decarbonization” trend going from fuels with more carbon to those with more hydrogen: first wood, second coal, third oil, fourth gas and maybe eventually pure hydrogen and solar energy. In fact, solar energy itself is based precisely on the nuclear fusion of hydrogen into helium, and hydrogen is the lightest and most abundant chemical element in the universe, constituting almost 75% of the estimated chemical mass of all elements (and well over 90% in terms of the number of single atoms) across the known universe. Thus, we can describe such energy waves not only as the “decarbonization” but also as the “hydrogenization” of our energy sources.

Figure 1: Energy “Waves” in the USA

Source: Based on Cordeiro (2011)

Solar energy has been growing exponentially during the last two decades, and most industry forecasts indicate that this trend will continue during the following decades. In fact, solar energy is already reaching “grid parity” in some markets, which means that solar energy has become cheaper than fossil fuels in the first “sunny” markets, and eventually even in places with lower insolation. This exponential trend will radically transform the energy matrix during the following decades, when solar energy will become the largest single source of energy for our current civilization. One of the leading experts on solar cells, Emmanuel Sachs, has proven how the solar industry has been rapidly growing and is now reaching “grid parity” in many markets, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Growth of the Solar Industry

Such transition from fossil and scarce fuels to more renewable and abundant energy sources might not be easy, but it has already started. Thus, the age of hydrocarbons seems to be approaching its end, as Saudi Arabian politician Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani has famously said: “the Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.”

The “Enernet”

Not only will atomic power be released, but someday we will harness the rise and fall of the tides and imprison the rays of the sun.

—Thomas Alva Edison, 1921

Futurist Richard Buckminster Fuller was one of the earliest proponents of renewable energy sources (mostly solar energy, including wind and wave energy ultimately produced by the Sun) which he incorporated into his design and work in the middle of the 20
th
century. He claimed that “there is no energy crisis, only a crisis of ignorance.” Decades ago, his research demonstrated that humanity could satisfy 100% of its energy needs while phasing out completely fossil fuels and nuclear fission energy, if required.

Fuller also developed the concept of “energy slaves” in order to show how the human condition has been rapidly improving, partly thanks to the vast amounts of cheap energy available to more and more people. Thus, instead of human slaves, we actually had “energy slaves” that were just a concept to indicate how our advancing technology produced more goods and services for everybody without actually having human slaves working for just a few kings and queens (as it was in the past). In his
World Energy Map
, after his famous
Dymaxion Map
, Fuller estimated that every person had about 38 “energy slaves” in 1950. Thanks to continuous technological advances, Fuller extrapolated that the number of “energy slaves” would keep increasing, which was also very important to his idea of “accelerating acceleration.” Furthermore, Fuller believed that humanity urgently needed a global energy network and he first suggested the concept of an interconnected global grid linked to distributed renewable resources in his
World Game
simulation in the 1970s. Fuller concluded that this strategy was the highest priority of the
World Game
simulation and could positively transform humanity by increasing the global standard of living and connecting everybody around the planet.