36 Hours: A Post-Apocalyptic EMP Survival Fiction Series (26 page)

The National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) is the principal means by which the Executive Branch coordinates science and technology policy across the diverse entities that make up the Federal research and development enterprise. One of the NSTC’s primary objectives is establishing clear national goals for Federal science and technology investments. The NSTC prepares R&D packages aimed at accomplishing multiple national goals. The NSTC’s work is organized under five committees: Environment, Natural Resources, and Sustainability (CENRS); Homeland and National Security; Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Education; Science; and Technology. Each of these committees oversees subcommittees and working groups that are focused on different aspects of science and technology. More information is available at www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/nstc.

About the Office of Science and Technology Policy

The Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) was established by the National Science and Technology Policy, Organization, and Priorities Act of 1976. OSTP’s responsibilities include advising the President in policy formulation and budget development on questions in which science and technology are important elements; articulating the President’s science and technology policy and programs; and fostering strong partnerships among Federal, State, and local governments, and the scientific communities in industry and academia. The Director of OSTP also serves as Assistant to the President for Science and Technology and manages the NSTC. More information is available at www.whitehouse.gov/ostp.

About the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task Force

The Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) task force, an interagency group organized under the NSTC, CENRS, Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction (SDR), was chartered in November 2014 to develop a national strategy and a national action plan to enhance national preparedness for space-weather events.

About this Document

This document was developed by the SWORM Task Force. It was released in draft for public comment on the Federal Register (80 FR 24296), was reviewed by SDR and CENRS, and was finalized and published by OSTP.

Acknowledgements

The SWORM Task Force acknowledges the contributions from the IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute for providing subject-matter expertise, constructive review, and other contributions to the development of this strategy.

Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation Task Force

Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Department of Homeland Security

Office of Science and Technology Policy

Members – Departments

Department of Commerce

Department of Defense

Department of Energy

Department of Homeland Security

Department of the Interior

Department of State

Department of Transportation

Agencies and Service Branches

Federal Aviation Administration Federal Communications Commission

Federal Emergency Management Agency

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Science Foundation

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Office of the Director of National Intelligence

United States Air Force

United States Geological Survey

United States Navy

United States Postal Service

Executive Office of the President

National Security Council

Office of Management and Budget

Office of Science and Technology Policy

White House Military Office

EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

NATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COUNCIL

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20502

October 29, 2015

Dear Colleagues,

Space weather is a naturally occurring phenomenon that has the potential to cause substantial detrimental effects on the Nation’s economic and social well-being. Preparing for and predicting space-weather events and their potential effects on Earth is a significant challenge. Recent efforts led by the United States and its international partners have resulted in significant progress toward improving the understanding, monitoring, prediction, and mitigation of this hazard, but much more needs to be done.

Over the past 5 years, OSTP has coordinated interagency efforts to improve the Nation's ability to prepare, avoid, mitigate, respond to, and recover from the potentially devastating impacts of space-weather events. These efforts included the establishment of the interagency Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task Force in November 2014. The goal of the SWORM Task Force was to unite the national- and homeland-security enterprise with the science and technology enterprise to formulate a cohesive vision to enhance national preparedness for space weather.

This National Space Weather Strategy and accompanying National Space Weather Action Plan are the result of the SWORM Task Force’s efforts. These documents transcend agency-mission and sector boundaries to describe how the Federal Government will coordinate its efforts on space weather and how the Federal Government plans to engage academia, the private and public sectors, and other governments on space weather. The Strategy and associated Action Plan aim to enhance the preparedness of the Nation by interweaving and building upon existing policy efforts to identify overarching goals that underpin and drive the activities necessary to improve the security and resilience of critical technologies and infrastructures.

These documents represent only a next step to improving national preparedness for space weather. The Strategy sets overall goals for Federal action, while the Action Plan establishes Federal actions and timelines for implementation. Many of these activities will require long time horizons, which will necessitate sustained engagement among government agencies and the private sector. This challenge requires the Nation to work together to continually improve understanding, prediction, and preparedness to enhance the Nation’s resilience against severe space-weather events.

Sincerely,

John P. Holdren

Assistant to the President for Science and Technology

Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Introduction

Implementation of the National Space Weather Strategy

Enhancing National Preparedness and Critical Infrastructure Resilience

Strategic Goals

1. Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events

2. Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities

3. Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts

4. Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Prediction of Impacts on Critical Infrastructure

5. Improve Space-Weather Services through Advancing Understanding and Forecasting

6. Increase International Cooperation

Conclusion

Executive Summary

Space weather refers to variations in the space environment between the sun and Earth (and throughout the solar system) that can affect technologies in space and on Earth. Space weather can disrupt the technology that forms the backbone of this country’s economic vitality and national security, including satellite and airline operations, communications networks, navigation systems, and the electric power grid. As the Nation becomes ever more dependent on these technologies, space weather poses an increasing risk to infrastructure and the economy. Further, the Strategic National Risk Assessment has identified space weather as a hazard that poses significant risk to the security of the Nation. Clearly, reducing vulnerability to space weather needs to be a national priority.

The National Space Weather Strategy (Strategy) and the accompanying National Space Weather Action Plan (Action Plan) together seek to enhance the integration of existing national efforts and to add important capabilities to help meet growing demands for space-weather information. The Strategy and Action Plan build on recent efforts to reduce risks associated with natural hazards and improve resilience of essential facilities and systems, aiming to foster a collaborative environment in which government, industry, and the American people can better understand and prepare for the effects of space weather. The Nation must continue to leverage existing public and private networks of expertise and capabilities and pursue targeted enhancements to improve the ability to manage risks associated with space weather.

Six strategic goals underpin the effort to reduce the Nation’s vulnerability to space weather:

1. Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events: Effective and appropriate actions for space-weather events require an understanding of the magnitude and frequency of such events. Benchmarks will help government and industry assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, establish decision points and thresholds for action, understand risk, and provide points of reference to enable mitigation procedures and practices and to enhance response and recovery planning.

2. Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities: There is a need to develop comprehensive guidance to support and improve response and recovery capabilities to manage space-weather events, including the capabilities of Federal, State, and local governments and of the private sector.

3. Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts: Improvements to national preparedness for space-weather events will require enhancing approaches to protection and mitigation. Protection focuses on developing capabilities and actions to secure the Nation from the effects of space weather, including vulnerability reduction. Mitigation focuses on minimizing risks, addressing cascading effects, and enhancing disaster resilience. Implementation of these preparedness missions requires joint action from public and private stakeholders whose shared expertise and responsibilities are embedded in the Nation’s infrastructure systems.

4. Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Prediction of Impacts on Critical Infrastructure: Timely, reliable, actionable, and relevant decision-support services during space-weather events are essential to improving national preparedness. Societal effects must be understood to better inform the actions necessary during extreme events and to encourage appropriate mitigation and protection measures before an incident.

5. Improve Space-Weather Services through Advancing Understanding and Forecasting: Opportunity exists to improve the fundamental understanding of space weather and increase the accuracy, reliability, and timeliness of space-weather observations and forecasts (and related products and services). The underpinning science and observations will help drive advances in modeling capability and improve the quality of space-weather products and services. There is also a need to improve capacity to develop and transition the latest scientific and technological advances into space- weather operations centers.

6. Increase International Cooperation: In a world of complex interdependencies, global engagement and a coordinated international response to space weather is needed. The United States must not only be an integral part of the global effort to prepare for space-weather impacts, but must also help mobilize broad, global support for this effort by using existing agreements and building international support and policies.

The Strategy identifies goals and establishes the guiding principles that will underpin the Nation’s efforts to secure the infrastructures vital to national security and economy of the United States. It identifies specific initiatives to drive both near- and long-term national protection priorities. It also provides protocols for preparing and responding to space-weather events and for ensuring that information is available to inform decision-making. This information will be used to enhance national resilience and prepare an appropriate response during space-weather storms.

This Strategy and the associated Action Plan will facilitate the integration of space-weather information into Federal risk-management plans to achieve preparedness levels consistent with national policies. Accomplishing the strategic elements in the Strategy will require a whole-community approach to coordinating domestic and international public and private resources. Government, industry, and the American people must work together to enhance the resilience of critical infrastructure to the adverse effects of space weather on the people, economy, and security of the Nation.

Whole-community planning for resilience is an approach to emergency management that reinforces the ideas that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is only one part of the Nation’s emergency management team; that collective resources must be leveraged in preparing for, protecting against, responding to, recovering from, and mitigating against all hazards; and a collective effort is required to meet the needs of the entire community in each of these areas.

Introduction

Space-weather events are naturally occurring phenomena that have the potential to negatively affect technology and energy infrastructure, which are essential contributors to national security and economic vitality. The term “space weather” refers to the dynamic conditions of the space environment that arise from emissions from the sun, which include solar flares, solar energetic particles, and coronal mass ejections (CME). Note that not all effects of space weather are damaging. The aurora borealis is a striking visual manifestation of space weather. These emissions can interact with Earth and its surrounding space, including the Earth’s magnetic field, potentially disrupting electric power systems; satellite, aircraft, and spacecraft operations; telecommunications; position, navigation, and timing services; and other technologies and infrastructures. The Nation’s critical infrastructures make up a diverse, complex, interdependent system of systems in which the failure of one could cascade to another. Given the importance of reliable electric power and space-based assets for security and economic well-being, it is essential that the United States establish a strategy to improve the Nation’s ability to protect, mitigate, respond to, and recover from the potentially devastating effects of space-weather events.