36 Hours: A Post-Apocalyptic EMP Survival Fiction Series (28 page)

4. Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Prediction of Impacts on Critical Infrastructure

A key component of improving national preparedness for a space-weather event is the ability to observe and predict associated effects. Providing timely, actionable, and relevant decision-support services during a space-weather event requires improvements in abilities to observe, assess, model, and ultimately predict the effects of space-weather events on critical national infrastructures such as electric power systems; transportation systems (e.g., aviation, rail, and maritime); communications; and position, navigation, and timing systems. The societal and health effects of space-weather events must also be understood to inform the urgency of action during such events and to encourage appropriate mitigation and protection measures before an incident. Improving situational awareness and prediction of the effects on infrastructure during a space-weather event requires better observations and better modeling of system-response characteristics. The following objectives should be pursued to enhance observation, modeling, and prediction capabilities:

(a) Assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure systems to space weather: To prepare for and enhance the security and resilience of critical infrastructure systems to space-weather events, a thorough and systematic understanding of the effects and vulnerabilities is necessary. This understanding will inform preparedness approaches and planning and enable validation of system-specific impact models.

(b) Develop a real-time infrastructure assessment and reporting capability: Situational awareness of the state of various critical infrastructure systems is crucial to providing actionable event response. This capability will require continued investments in, and assessments of, the real-time monitoring requirements for reporting the state of infrastructures, as well as situational awareness of space weather.

(c) Develop or refine operational models that forecast the effects of space weather on critical infrastructure: To ensure an appropriate and effective response to space-weather events, it is not enough to only forecast the magnitude of such events. It is also necessary to predict the effects of such events on infrastructure and other systems on a regional basis. (Hurricane storm-surge prediction is a terrestrial weather example of this objective.) Effective prediction of the effects of space weather requires reliable, accurate, and fast models that take into account effects on both isolated and interdependent infrastructure systems. There is also a need to define and develop comprehensive requirements for operational impact models, identify deficiencies in current modeling capabilities, and develop new and improved tools.

(d) Improve operational impact forecasting and communications: Based on the assessment and modeling elements outlined above, a national capability to forecast extreme space-weather effects before the onset of an event would enable timely warnings to system operators and emergency managers. This capability should always be available, with rapid computation and dissemination mechanisms.

(e) Conduct research on the effects of space weather on industries, operational environments, and infrastructure sectors: Improving existing models and developing new capabilities in impact forecasting must be based on a better understanding of the fundamental physical processes of the effects of space weather on critical infrastructure systems. Doing so requires identifying gaps in understanding of impacts on these systems; developing strategies to address these gaps; identifying impact-related interdependencies through vulnerability and failure mode-assessments across and between sectors; and supporting research for understanding the cost to mitigate, respond to, and recover from extreme space-weather events.

5. Improve Space-Weather Services through Advancing Understanding and Forecasting

Space-weather services can enhance national preparedness by providing timely, accurate, and relevant forecasting products. Identifying and sustaining a baseline of fundamental measurements from observing platforms is key to providing operational services that inform preparedness. This baseline can also serve as a reference point from which to identify coverage and measurement gaps, as well as opportunities for improvement. Services can be improved through basic research and applied research that focus on the needs of an increasingly diverse user community.

To facilitate the transition of these enhancements from the research domain to operations, the responsible agencies will: (1) periodically revalidate user requirements for improved space-weather services; and (2) strengthen and encourage partnerships to accelerate the research-to-operations transition process, with a goal to support key preparedness decisions. The following objectives should be pursued to meet these goals:

(a) Improve understanding of user needs for space-weather forecasting to establish lead-time and accuracy goals: Effective transfer of space-weather knowledge requires a better understanding of the effects of space weather on technology and on industry and government customers, including the associated economic and political impacts on the Nation’s critical infrastructures.

(b) Ensure space-weather products are intelligible and actionable to inform decision-making: Decision-relevant information must be communicated in ways that stakeholders can fully understand and use. Models and forecasts will be most useful when they enable swift decision-making with a reasonable assumption of risk.

(c) Establish and sustain a baseline observational capability for space-weather operations: The Nation lacks a comprehensive operational space-weather observation strategy. Opportunities exist to improve the Nation’s space-weather-prediction capabilities, which rely on an ad hoc mixture of weather satellites, research satellites, and ground systems to provide data to forecast centers. To ensure adequate and sustained real-time observations for space-weather analysis, forecasting, and decision-support services, a baseline, or minimally adequate, operational observation capability should be defined. The observation baseline should also specify the optimal mix of ground-based and satellite observations to enable continuous and timely space-weather watch, warning, and alert products and services. The associated data reception, relay, processing, assimilation, and archiving infrastructure required to utilize space-weather observations must also be included in the baseline.

(d) Improve forecasting lead-time and accuracy: Society is increasingly at risk from extreme space-weather events. With improved predictions, the Nation can enhance mitigation, response, and recovery actions to safeguard assets and maintain continuity of operations during high-impact space-weather activity.

(e) Enhance fundamental understanding of space weather and its drivers to develop and continually improve predictive models: Forecasting space weather depends on a fundamental understanding of the space-environment processes that give rise to hazardous events. It is particularly important to understand the processes that link the sun to Earth. An improved understanding of space weather and access to better data will help drive the necessary advances in modeling capabilities and validation to support user needs.

(f) Improve effectiveness and timeliness of the process that transitions research to operations: Although the Nation has invested in the development of research infrastructure and predictive models to meet the demands of a growing space-weather user community, existing modeling capabilities still fall short of providing what is needed to meet these demands. Until better research models targeted to operational needs are developed and ultimately incorporated into operational forecasts, the Nation will not fully realize the benefits of its research investments.

6. Increase International Cooperation

In a world increasingly dependent on interconnected and interdependent infrastructure, any disruption to these critical technologies could have regional and even international consequences. Therefore, space weather should be regarded as a global challenge requiring a coordinated global response.

Many countries are becoming increasingly aware of the need to monitor and manage space-weather risks. The United States and other nations are sharing observations and research, disseminating products and services, and collaborating on real-time predictions to mitigate impacts on critical technology and infrastructure. Countries around the world must work together to foster global collaboration, taking advantage of mutual interests and capabilities to improve situational awareness, predictions, and preparedness for extreme space weather. The following objectives should be pursued to increase international cooperation:

(a) Build international support and policies for acknowledging space weather as a global challenge: A prerequisite to enhanced international cooperation is high-level support across partner countries to raise awareness of space weather as a global challenge.

(b) Increase engagement with the international community on observation infrastructure, data sharing, numerical modeling, and scientific research: The Federal Government should explore opportunities to work with the international community to enhance research, observations, models, and forecasting tools that are responsive to the needs of the global scientific community and the providers and users of space-weather information services.

(c) Strengthen international coordination and cooperation on space-weather products and services: Providing high-quality space-weather products and services worldwide requires international consensus and cooperation. Toward this end, the United States should seek international agreement on common terminology, measurements, and scales of magnitude; promote and coordinate sharing and dissemination of space-weather observations, model outputs, and forecasts; and establish coordination procedures across space-weather operations centers during events.

(d) Promote a collaborative international approach to preparedness for extreme space-weather events: The world’s interconnected and interdependent systems are vulnerable to extreme space-weather events; this vulnerability could possibly lead to a cascade of impacts across borders and sectors. To mitigate these risks, the United States should work with the international community to facilitate the exchange of information and best practices to strengthen global preparedness capacity for extreme space-weather events. The United States should also foster the development of global mutual-aid arrangements to facilitate response and recovery efforts, and should coordinate international partnership activities to support space-weather preparedness and response exercises.

Conclusion

Space-weather events pose a significant and complex risk to the Nation’s infrastructure and have the potential to cause substantial economic and human harm. This Strategy is the first step in addressing the myriad challenges presented when managing and mitigating the risks posed by both extreme and ordinary space weather. The six high-level goals and associated objectives outlined in this Strategy support a collaborative and Federally-coordinated approach to developing effective policies, practices, and procedures for decreasing the Nation’s vulnerabilities associated with space weather. By establishing goals for improvements in forecasting, research, preparedness, planning, and domestic and international engagement, this Strategy will help ensure the Nation’s resilience to the effects of extreme space-weather events.

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APPENDIX D
PREPPER’S CHECKLIST

From
www.FreedomPreppers.com

PREPPERS CHECKLIST

Preppers who are not adequately prepared place added risks on the people who rely upon them. A well-organized Prepper Checklist with assigned responsibilities will maximize your odds of survival. Your Prepper Checklist is a list of functions, or capabilities that you need to provide for in each of the survival categories. A comprehensive prepper checklist acts as both a shopping list of items that you need to get or put into a kit and a to-do list. This Prepper Checklist accomplishes both.

A Preppers Checklist is always evolving. Your Preparedness Plan will change as your knowledge and skills advance. This Preppers Checklist allows for the individual needs of each Prepper while still accomplishing common goals.

The list is broken up into general categories to help keep things organized. You can learn more on
FreedomPreppers.com

Prepper Basics are the minimum requirements of preparedness that you should strive to accomplish as fast as possible. They are the basic levels of preparedness that a new prepper starting out should achieve as soon as possible. Advanced Preppers levels allow for surviving longer durations and/or increases the capacity of your prepper group.

Remember the Prepper Rule of Threes and buy backups to everything!

Three is two, two is one, one is none.

Off Grid Energy Options

•    Ability to recharge NiMH or NiCd batteries from an indefinite power source , in the sizes you use (AAA, AA, C, D, 9V)

•    Minimum 4,000 Watt Generator, preferably tri-fuel (gas, propane, natural gas or solar)

•    Fuel storage to power generator for four hours per day, ninety days total

•    Put Uninterruptible Power Supplies on all computers and other sensitive critical electronic equipment in a Faraday Cage

•    Spare extension cords