A Field Guide to Lies: Critical Thinking in the Information Age (39 page)

and misframing risks,
202
,
203
,
205

employment/unemployment rates,
66

evolution,
170

exception fallacy,
18
,
19
–20

experimental design,
213

experts and expertise,
129
–151

and citations,
149

and discredited information,
146
–48

evidence-based arguments of,
129
,
130

and fraud,
134

and hierarchy of information sources,
135
–37,
232

incorrect assessments of,
129
,
130
–31

and institutional bias,
142

narrow expression of,
134
–35,
251
–52

opinions shared by,
129
–130

and peer-reviewed journals,
132
,
135
,
143
–44

recognizing,
131
–34,
274
n133

and regulating authorities,
145
–46

and reposted information from others,
148

standards for,
130
,
274
n133

and terminology,
149
–151

and websites,
137
–141,
143

extrapolation,
58
–60,
59
,
60

fact-checking sites and organizations,
147
–48

Falkenstein, Glenn,
233
–34,
243
–44,
245

fallacies,
198
–210

affirming the consequent (converse error),
186
–87,
189

belief perseverance,
205
–7,
210

cum hoc, ergo propter hoc
,
49

ecological fallacy,
18
–19

exception fallacy,
18
,
19
–20

and framing of probabilities,
200
–201

gambler’s fallacy,
166
–67

illusory correlations,
198
–200,
199
,
209
–10

post hoc, ergo propter hoc
,
48
–49,
207
–8,
210

prosecutor’s fallacy,
221

when framing risk,
201
–5

false positives/negatives,
111
–14,
114

family size, average,
21
–22,
23

far transfer,
222

fasting demonstration of Blaine,
234
–36

Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI),
155

fermions,
246

food labeling,
74

Forbes
magazine,
38
,
39
,
66
,
125

forensic science,
217
–221

fourfold tables,
108
–11,
118
–19,
198
–200,
217
–221

Fox News,
10
,
10
,
29
,
29
–30

Fox television,
232

framing,
53
–56,
155
,
200
–205

Frandsen, Mads Toudal,
248

fraudulent advertising claims,
145
–46

fraudulent research data,
181
–82

frequentist probabilities,
98
–99,
271
n98

Fuller, Charles,
237
,
240

Galileo Galilei,
77
–78

Gallup, George,
85

gambler’s fallacy,
166
–67

genetics,
159
–160

Get What You Pay For
(Keppel),
7

Gladwell, Malcolm,
159

Gleason tumor grading,
90

Grafton, Scott,
238
–240

graphs

choosing the scale and axes for,
33
–35,
34
,
35

cumulative sales graphs,
46
–47,
47

with discontinuity in axes,
30
–33,
31
,
32
,
72
–73,
73

with double Y-axis,
36
–42,
37
,
38
,
44
,
44
–45

misinterpretation of,
119
–120

smooth lines in,
42

with truncated vertical axes,
28
–29,
29

with unlabeled axes,
26
–28,
27
,
28

gravitons,
250

Guinness World Records,
238

Han, Dong-Pyou,
182

Harte, Bret,
128

Hawking, Stephen,
249

heart disease,
150
–51,
175

heterogeneity,
18

hierarchy of source quality,
135
–37,
232

Higgs boson,
217
,
246
–250,
247
,
282
n248

Holmes, Sherlock,
191
–92

Holocaust revisionism,
170

homelessness, measuring,
94

home prices,
33
–34,
34

home robberies,
203
–5

hypotheses,
212

illegal immigrants,
89

illusory correlations,
198
–200,
199
,
209
–10

illustrations, deceptive,
51
–52,
52

immigrants,
203

incidence (term),
149
–151

inductive reasoning,
183
–84,
190
–91,
192

inference,
191

inflation measures,
94

infoliteracy,
x

institutional bias,
142

intelligence,
93
,
134

interest rates,
7

Internet and websites,
137
–141

and anti-skepticism bias,
252
–53

assessing authority of,
143

citing research,
149

counterknowledge on,
251
,
254

domains of,
137
–38,
141

misinformation on,
253

and reposted information,
148

interpolation,
58
–59

investments,
24
,
25

Jenkins, James,
21

Jobs, Steve,
125

joint probabilities,
102
–3

Jolly, David,
139
–140

journalism

breaking news mode in,
171
–72

and counterknowledge,
171
–73

crime reporting in,
173

and hierarchy of source quality,
135
–36

reliability of,
145

scientific investigation mode in,
171
,
172

and selective windowing,
162
–63

Journal of Management Development
,
6

journals, reputable,
143
–44

Kahneman, Daniel,
100

Kaysing, Bill,
229
,
231

Kazakhstan, ancient earthworks of,
156
–58

Kennedy, John F.,
169
–170

Keppel, Dan,
7

Kerry, John,
19