A Field Guide to Lies: Critical Thinking in the Information Age (40 page)

King, Martin Luther,
141
,
275
n141

known knowns,
211
–15,
214

known unknowns,
211
–15,
214
,
250

The Lancet
,
210

Landon, Alf,
85

law of large numbers,
165

learning, role of mistakes in,
249

Leibniz, Gottfried Wilhelm,
167

Lieb, Gretchen,
126
–28

life expectancy,
20
–21,
228
,
266

Literary Digest
,
85

Locard, Edmond,
217
–18

logarithmic scales,
35

Los Angeles Times
,
55

lying to pollsters,
88
–89,
269
n81

Lykken, Joseph,
249
,
250

Lyons, Louis,
248

magicians,
153
,
232
,
233
–34,
242
–45.
See also
Blaine, David

Malthus, Thomas,
151

margin of error,
82
,
83
–84,
84
,
269
n84

MartinLutherKing.org,
141
,
275
n141

McCartney, Paul,
164
,
251

mean,
11
–13,
17
,
18
–19,
21
,
265

measurement errors in data collection,
90
–93

median,
11
,
12
–13,
17
,
18
,
19
,
265

medicine

and decision making,
111
–15,
117
–18

and effect of treatments on life expectancy,
228

employment trends in,
63

and incidence vs. prevalence,
149
–151

and mortality,
150
–51

and pathology,
224

Mendeleev, Dmitri,
245

meta-analyses,
142
,
183
,
217

military service,
62

misinformation,
xi
,
168
,
254
,
263
.
See also
counterknowledge

mistakes and learning opportunities,
249

mode,
11
,
13
,
17
,
19

modus ponens statements,
186
,
188

moon-landing denial,
229
–231

mortality and death

causation vs. correlation in,
49
–50,
49

and cause-of-death statistics,
73
–74

and conditional probabilities,
106
–7

crude death rate,
151

and medical advances of Semmelweis,
194
–97

mortality
term,
150
–51

and perception of risk,
173
–75

and plausibility assessments,
6

reported by media,
136

and risk-framing fallacies,
202
–3

and sampling errors,
62
,
63

and shifting baselines,
56

and unknowable/unverifiable claims,
95
–96

motorcycle accidents,
63

Mozart effect,
158

multiple sclerosis (MS),
150

multiraciality,
89

Munroe, Randall,
51

neutrons,
246

New England Journal of Medicine
,
234

New England Patriots,
92

New Jersey, welfare mothers in,
8
–9

New York Times

on ancient earthworks of Kazakhstan,
156
–57

on Blaine’s breath-holding demonstration,
240
–41,
242

on Higgs boson research,
250

statistics misreported by,
8
–9

on unemployment rate,
66

and verification of information,
135
–36

on water consumption in California,
55

1984
(Orwell),
251

Nixon, Tom,
243
–44

non-response errors in sampling,
87

notation of logical statements,
187
–89

Nutrition
,
234
–35

Orwell, George,
251

outliers,
12
–13

The Oxford Dictionary of Quotations
(Knowles, ed.),
126
–27

Paris attacks of November
13
, 2015,
202
–3

participation biases,
86
–88

pathology,
224

pattern detection,
198

peer review,
132
,
135
,
143
–44,
145

percentages and percentage points,
7

periodic table,
245
–46

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE),
94

persuasion by association,
176
–77,
210

pie charts,
9
–10,
10

placebos,
158
–59

plane crashes,
56
,
201
–2

Planned Parenthood,
40
,
40
–42,
41
,
44
–45

plausibility, assessing,
3
–10

pneumonia,
108

political parties,
62
–63

Politifact.com,
147
–48

Pollack, Louis,
6

Popoff, Peter,
241

population

population size,
83

rate of natural increase of (RNI),
151

sample sizes for surveys of,
165

post hoc, ergo propter hoc
,
48
–49,
207
–8,
210

Potkin, Ralph,
241

precision vs. accuracy of numbers,
60
–61

predictions,
154
–55

presidential elections,
19
,
85
,
91
,
147
–48

prevalence (term),
149
–151

probabilities,
97
–120

Bayesian,
99
–102,
216
–221

classic,
98
–99,
271
n98

combining,
102
–3,
218

and counterknowledge,
170

deductive logic of,
183

of events informed by other events,
103
–4

framing,
200
–201

frequentist,
98
–99,
271
n98

in medicine,
224

for recurring, replicable events,
98
–99

and statistical literacy,
166
–67

subjective,
99
–102

visualizing, with fourfold tables,
108
–11,
118
–19,
198
–200

See also
conditional probabilities

prosecutor’s fallacy,
221

Prosper, Harrison,
247
,
248

protons,
246
,
247

psychics,
153

public-opinion polls,
76
,
99

public policy,
54
,
64
–65

publishing,
135
,
145

quarks,
246

quota sampling,
81

quotations,
125
–28