Read The Dictator's Handbook Online
Authors: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
The Dictator's Handbook (48 page)
10
Anita L. Allen and Michael R. Seidl, “Cross-Cultural Commerce in Shakespeare's Merchant of Venice,”
American University Journal of International Law and Politics
10 (1995): 843.
Anita L. Allen and Michael R. Seidl, “Cross-Cultural Commerce in Shakespeare's Merchant of Venice,”
American University Journal of International Law and Politics
10 (1995): 843.
11
Calculations based upon SOI Tax Stats-Internal Revenue Service Collections, Costs, Personnel, and US Population, by Fiscal Year-IRS Data Book Table 29 for 2009.
Calculations based upon SOI Tax Stats-Internal Revenue Service Collections, Costs, Personnel, and US Population, by Fiscal Year-IRS Data Book Table 29 for 2009.
12
Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, “Inefficient Redistribution,”
American Political Science Review
95, no. 3 (September 2001): 649â661.
Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, “Inefficient Redistribution,”
American Political Science Review
95, no. 3 (September 2001): 649â661.
13
Quote attributed to Elizabeth Ohene, “Words, Deeds and Cocoa,”
West Africa
31 (August 1982), 2104, cited in Jeffrey Herbst,
The Politics of Reform in Ghana, 1982â1991
(Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993), 111.
Quote attributed to Elizabeth Ohene, “Words, Deeds and Cocoa,”
West Africa
31 (August 1982), 2104, cited in Jeffrey Herbst,
The Politics of Reform in Ghana, 1982â1991
(Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993), 111.
15
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “Political Survival and Endogenous Institutional Change,”
Comparative Political Studies
42, no. 2 (2009): 167â197. A. H. Gelb,
Windfall Gains: Blessing or Curse
? (New York: Oxford University Press, 1988); Michael Ross, “Political Economy of Resource Curse,”
World Politics
51 (1999): 297â322; Jeffrey D. Sachs and Andrew M. Warner, “Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth,” Working Paper 5398, 1995.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “Political Survival and Endogenous Institutional Change,”
Comparative Political Studies
42, no. 2 (2009): 167â197. A. H. Gelb,
Windfall Gains: Blessing or Curse
? (New York: Oxford University Press, 1988); Michael Ross, “Political Economy of Resource Curse,”
World Politics
51 (1999): 297â322; Jeffrey D. Sachs and Andrew M. Warner, “Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth,” Working Paper 5398, 1995.
16
Xavier Sala-i-Martin Arvind Subramanian, “Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria,” Working Paper 9804, NBER Working Paper series (Cambridge MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2003). Available at
http://www.nber.org/papers/w9804
.
Xavier Sala-i-Martin Arvind Subramanian, “Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria,” Working Paper 9804, NBER Working Paper series (Cambridge MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2003). Available at
http://www.nber.org/papers/w9804
.
17
Data taken from the World Bank's World Development Indicators 2010. Accessed at
http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators
. Amounts reported in constant 2000 US dollars.
Chapter 5: Getting and SpendingData taken from the World Bank's World Development Indicators 2010. Accessed at
http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators
. Amounts reported in constant 2000 US dollars.
1
See Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and George W. Downs, “The Rise of Sustainable Autocracy,”
Foreign Affairs
84, no. 5 (September/October 2005): 77â86. For contrary views, see Robert J. Barro,
Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1997), and Adam Przeworski, Michael Alvares, José Antonio Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi,
Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Material Well-Being in the World, 1950â1990
(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000).
See Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and George W. Downs, “The Rise of Sustainable Autocracy,”
Foreign Affairs
84, no. 5 (September/October 2005): 77â86. For contrary views, see Robert J. Barro,
Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1997), and Adam Przeworski, Michael Alvares, José Antonio Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi,
Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Material Well-Being in the World, 1950â1990
(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000).
3
See the US News and World Reports rankings, at
http://www.usnews.com/articles/education/worlds-best-universities/2010/09/21/worlds-best-universities-top-400-.html
.
See the US News and World Reports rankings, at
http://www.usnews.com/articles/education/worlds-best-universities/2010/09/21/worlds-best-universities-top-400-.html
.
4
See Kiron Skinner, Serhiy Kudelia, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, and Condoleezza Rice,
The Strategy of Campaigning
(Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 2007).
See Kiron Skinner, Serhiy Kudelia, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, and Condoleezza Rice,
The Strategy of Campaigning
(Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 2007).
5
For a comparison of leadership by one person in both a small- and large-coalition setting see Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, “Leopold II and the Selectorate: An Account in Contrast to a Racial Explanation,”
Historical Social Research [Historische Sozialforschung]
32, no. 4 (2007): 203â221.
For a comparison of leadership by one person in both a small- and large-coalition setting see Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, “Leopold II and the Selectorate: An Account in Contrast to a Racial Explanation,”
Historical Social Research [Historische Sozialforschung]
32, no. 4 (2007): 203â221.
6
See Jorge Dominguez, Cuba: Order and Revolution (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1978); Jorge Dominguez, “The Batista Regime in Cuba,” in
Sultanistic Regimes,
eds. H. E. Chehabi and Juan J. Linz (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1998), 113â131.
See Jorge Dominguez, Cuba: Order and Revolution (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1978); Jorge Dominguez, “The Batista Regime in Cuba,” in
Sultanistic Regimes,
eds. H. E. Chehabi and Juan J. Linz (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1998), 113â131.
8
See
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2004rank.html
, for comparisons of per capita income based on purchasing power parity in 2009, the latest year for which the data are available.
See
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2004rank.html
, for comparisons of per capita income based on purchasing power parity in 2009, the latest year for which the data are available.
9
Quoted in James A. Robinson, “When Is a State Predatory?” Working Paper, University of California, Berkeley, 1999.
Quoted in James A. Robinson, “When Is a State Predatory?” Working Paper, University of California, Berkeley, 1999.
10
We have measured these distances wherever we could. If you want to estimate these distances yourself just use Google maps and associated tools for measuring shortest distance.
We have measured these distances wherever we could. If you want to estimate these distances yourself just use Google maps and associated tools for measuring shortest distance.
11
See Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow,
The Logic of Political Survival
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003).
See Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow,
The Logic of Political Survival
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003).
12
A recent study that examines the protection of property rights finds that larger coalition governments are significantly more attentive to protecting property rights than are governments that rely on smaller coalitions. See Mogens K. Justesen, “Making and Breaking Property Rights: Coalitions, Veto Players, and the Institutional Foundation of Markets,”
Journal of Politics,
forthcoming.
A recent study that examines the protection of property rights finds that larger coalition governments are significantly more attentive to protecting property rights than are governments that rely on smaller coalitions. See Mogens K. Justesen, “Making and Breaking Property Rights: Coalitions, Veto Players, and the Institutional Foundation of Markets,”
Journal of Politics,
forthcoming.
13
See David S. Brown and Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, “The Transforming Power of Democracy: Regime Type and the Distribution of Electricity,”
American Political Science Review
103 (2009): 193â213; and Brian Min, “Who Gets Public Goods? Efficiency, Equity, and the Politics of Electrification,” paper presented at the 2008 Meeting of the Working Group on Wealth and Power in the Post-Industrial Age, UCLA, February 8â9, 2008.
See David S. Brown and Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, “The Transforming Power of Democracy: Regime Type and the Distribution of Electricity,”
American Political Science Review
103 (2009): 193â213; and Brian Min, “Who Gets Public Goods? Efficiency, Equity, and the Politics of Electrification,” paper presented at the 2008 Meeting of the Working Group on Wealth and Power in the Post-Industrial Age, UCLA, February 8â9, 2008.
14
See Earthquake Management in Iran, Iranian Studies Group at MIT, January 6, 2004, available at
http://www.vojoudi.com/earthquake/management/management_eq_mit_eng.htm
.
See Earthquake Management in Iran, Iranian Studies Group at MIT, January 6, 2004, available at
http://www.vojoudi.com/earthquake/management/management_eq_mit_eng.htm
.
15
Edward Luce,
In Spite of the Gods: The Rise of Modern India
(New York: Anchor Books, 2006), 139â140.
Chapter 6: If Corruption Empowers, Then Absolute Corruption Empowers AbsolutelyEdward Luce,
In Spite of the Gods: The Rise of Modern India
(New York: Anchor Books, 2006), 139â140.
1
Henry (1387â1422) is much admired for his victory at Agincourt during the Hundred Years War. Unlike Genghis Khan, however, Henry V died young. He was only forty-five, but then he did not fall at the hand of some political foe; he died of dysentery while fighting in France.
Henry (1387â1422) is much admired for his victory at Agincourt during the Hundred Years War. Unlike Genghis Khan, however, Henry V died young. He was only forty-five, but then he did not fall at the hand of some political foe; he died of dysentery while fighting in France.
2
William Shakespeare,
Folger Shakespeare Library: Henry V
, ed. Barbara A. Mowat and Paul Werstine (New York: Washington Square Press, 1995), Act 3, scene 3, 97.
William Shakespeare,
Folger Shakespeare Library: Henry V
, ed. Barbara A. Mowat and Paul Werstine (New York: Washington Square Press, 1995), Act 3, scene 3, 97.
3
Having lost his fortune, he hankered to return to Haiti, thinking he might once again assume power and extract wealth. He finally bit the bullet and went back to Haiti in January 2011, where he was immediately charged with corruption and other crimes. The urge for power is greatâmaybe even so great as to induce Baby Doc to undertake a most imprudent decision. Time will tell.
Having lost his fortune, he hankered to return to Haiti, thinking he might once again assume power and extract wealth. He finally bit the bullet and went back to Haiti in January 2011, where he was immediately charged with corruption and other crimes. The urge for power is greatâmaybe even so great as to induce Baby Doc to undertake a most imprudent decision. Time will tell.
6
See David Leonhardt, “Yes, 47% of Households Owe No Taxes. Look Closer,”
New York Times
, Business Section, April 13, 2010, available at
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/14/business/economy/14leonhardt.html
.
See David Leonhardt, “Yes, 47% of Households Owe No Taxes. Look Closer,”
New York Times
, Business Section, April 13, 2010, available at
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/14/business/economy/14leonhardt.html
.
7
We amassed World Bank data on vouchers and district-by-district levels of economic productivity and poverty to see whether vouchers are given to help the needy maize growers or are given as political rewards to the smallest coalition electoral districts. In keeping with Tanzanian practices, we assessed productivity as the amount of maize produced on average across the long and short rainy seasons. The extent of district poverty was evaluated as the percentage of the population in each district identified by the World Bank as below the poverty line. Tanzania says the voucher program is to alleviate poverty; our rules to rule by say the voucher program is a private reward to loyal supporters in small coalition settings.
We amassed World Bank data on vouchers and district-by-district levels of economic productivity and poverty to see whether vouchers are given to help the needy maize growers or are given as political rewards to the smallest coalition electoral districts. In keeping with Tanzanian practices, we assessed productivity as the amount of maize produced on average across the long and short rainy seasons. The extent of district poverty was evaluated as the percentage of the population in each district identified by the World Bank as below the poverty line. Tanzania says the voucher program is to alleviate poverty; our rules to rule by say the voucher program is a private reward to loyal supporters in small coalition settings.
8
All quotations about the Dymovsky affair are from Clifford J. Levy, “Videos Rouse Russian Anger Toward Police,”
New York Times
, July 28, 2010, p. A1.
All quotations about the Dymovsky affair are from Clifford J. Levy, “Videos Rouse Russian Anger Toward Police,”
New York Times
, July 28, 2010, p. A1.
10
See
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/olympics-crackdown-on-sponsorship-parasites-1612771.html
.
See
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/olympics-crackdown-on-sponsorship-parasites-1612771.html
.
13
For background on Castellano see Selwyn Raab,
Five Families
(New York: Thomas Dunne Books, 2005); Peter Maas,
Underboss: Sammy the Bull Gravano's Story of Life in the Mafia
(New York: Harper Torch, 1997).
For background on Castellano see Selwyn Raab,
Five Families
(New York: Thomas Dunne Books, 2005); Peter Maas,
Underboss: Sammy the Bull Gravano's Story of Life in the Mafia
(New York: Harper Torch, 1997).
14
M. Cary and H. H. Scallard,
A History of Rome: Down to the Reign of Constantine
, 3rd edn. (Boston: Bedford/St. Martins, 1976), chapters 20 and 27.
M. Cary and H. H. Scallard,
A History of Rome: Down to the Reign of Constantine
, 3rd edn. (Boston: Bedford/St. Martins, 1976), chapters 20 and 27.
16
See Michela Wrong:
In the Footsteps of Mr. Kurtz: Living on the Brink of Disaster in Mobutu's Congo
(London: Fourth Estate, 2000), 4.
See Michela Wrong:
In the Footsteps of Mr. Kurtz: Living on the Brink of Disaster in Mobutu's Congo
(London: Fourth Estate, 2000), 4.
19
See William Taubman,
Khrushchev: The Man and His Era
(New York : W. W. Norton & Co., 2003), 519â523.
See William Taubman,
Khrushchev: The Man and His Era
(New York : W. W. Norton & Co., 2003), 519â523.
20
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “The Political Economy of Corporate Fraud: A Theory and Empirical Tests,” Paper presented at NYU's Stern Business School, September 2004.
Chapter 7: Foreign AidBruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “The Political Economy of Corporate Fraud: A Theory and Empirical Tests,” Paper presented at NYU's Stern Business School, September 2004.
4
“Billions in US Aid Never Reached Pakistan Army,”
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,559962,00.html
, Sunday, October 4, 2009.
“Billions in US Aid Never Reached Pakistan Army,”
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,559962,00.html
, Sunday, October 4, 2009.
5
See also Ebbs, “Battle to Halt Graft Scourge in Africa”
New York Times
, October 15, 2010,
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/10/world/africa/10zambia.htm
.
See also Ebbs, “Battle to Halt Graft Scourge in Africa”
New York Times
, October 15, 2010,
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/10/world/africa/10zambia.htm
.
6
“Dirt Out, Cash In: Kenya's Anti-corruption Campaign Is Wooing Back Donors,”
Economist,
November 27, 2003.
“Dirt Out, Cash In: Kenya's Anti-corruption Campaign Is Wooing Back Donors,”
Economist,
November 27, 2003.
7
Jomo Kenyatta,
Suffering without Bitterness: The Founding of the Kenya Nation
(Nairobi: East African Publishing House, 1968), 215.
Jomo Kenyatta,
Suffering without Bitterness: The Founding of the Kenya Nation
(Nairobi: East African Publishing House, 1968), 215.
9
Ibid., 555â556.
Ibid., 555â556.
10
“Turkey Holds Out for Extra US Aid over Iraq,”
http://articles.cnn.com/2003-02-18/world/sprj.irq.erdogan_1_turkish-bases-bases-and-ports-turkey?_s=PM
:WORLD, February 18, 2003. It is worth noting that Turkey has shown robust growth over the last few years, as seen by comparing these figures with the more contemporaneous ones used in chapter 6.
“Turkey Holds Out for Extra US Aid over Iraq,”
http://articles.cnn.com/2003-02-18/world/sprj.irq.erdogan_1_turkish-bases-bases-and-ports-turkey?_s=PM
:WORLD, February 18, 2003. It is worth noting that Turkey has shown robust growth over the last few years, as seen by comparing these figures with the more contemporaneous ones used in chapter 6.
11
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “A Political Economy of Aid,”
International Organization
63 (Spring 2009): 309â40; and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “Foreign Aid and Policy Concessions,”
Journal of Conflict Resolution
51, no. 2 (2007): 251â284.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “A Political Economy of Aid,”
International Organization
63 (Spring 2009): 309â40; and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “Foreign Aid and Policy Concessions,”
Journal of Conflict Resolution
51, no. 2 (2007): 251â284.
13
See Peter J. Schraeder, Steven W. Hook, and Bruce Taylor, “Clarifying the Foreign Aid Puzzle: A Comparison of American, Japanese, French, and Swedish Aid Flows,”
World Politics
50, no. 2 (1998): 294â323.
See Peter J. Schraeder, Steven W. Hook, and Bruce Taylor, “Clarifying the Foreign Aid Puzzle: A Comparison of American, Japanese, French, and Swedish Aid Flows,”
World Politics
50, no. 2 (1998): 294â323.
14
Data from USAID's Greenbook. Reported in constant 2008 US dollars.
Data from USAID's Greenbook. Reported in constant 2008 US dollars.
15
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “The Pernicious Consequences of UN Security Council Membership,”
Journal of Conflict Resolution
54, no. 5 (2010): 667â686.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “The Pernicious Consequences of UN Security Council Membership,”
Journal of Conflict Resolution
54, no. 5 (2010): 667â686.
16
For instance, Ilyana Kuziemko and Eric Werker, “How Much Is a Seat on the Security Council Worth? Foreign Aid and Bribery at the United Nations,”
Journal of Political Economy
114, no. 5 (2006): 905â930; Axel Dreher, Jan-Egbert Sturm, and James Vreeland, “Global Horse Trading: IMF Loans for Votes in the United Nations Security Council,”
European Economic Review
53, no. 7 (2009): 742â757. Axel Dreher, Jan-Egbert Sturm, and James Vreeland, “Development Aid and International Politics: Does Membership on the UN Security Council Influence World Bank Decisions?”
Journal of Development Economics
88 (2009):1â18.
For instance, Ilyana Kuziemko and Eric Werker, “How Much Is a Seat on the Security Council Worth? Foreign Aid and Bribery at the United Nations,”
Journal of Political Economy
114, no. 5 (2006): 905â930; Axel Dreher, Jan-Egbert Sturm, and James Vreeland, “Global Horse Trading: IMF Loans for Votes in the United Nations Security Council,”
European Economic Review
53, no. 7 (2009): 742â757. Axel Dreher, Jan-Egbert Sturm, and James Vreeland, “Development Aid and International Politics: Does Membership on the UN Security Council Influence World Bank Decisions?”
Journal of Development Economics
88 (2009):1â18.
18
William Easterly,
The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002); and William Easterly,
The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good
(London: Penguin Press, 2006).
William Easterly,
The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002); and William Easterly,
The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good
(London: Penguin Press, 2006).
19
Craig Burnside and David Dollar, “Aid, Policies, and Growth,”
American Economic Review
90, no. 4 (2000): 847â868.
Craig Burnside and David Dollar, “Aid, Policies, and Growth,”
American Economic Review
90, no. 4 (2000): 847â868.
20
See Michael M. Calaban, Sergio Diaz Briquets, and Jerald O'Brien,
Cambodian Corruption Assessment
2004, USAID/Cambodia, p. 13. Available at
www.usaid.gov/kh/democracy_and_governance/documents/Cambodian_Corruption_Assessment.pdf
.
See Michael M. Calaban, Sergio Diaz Briquets, and Jerald O'Brien,
Cambodian Corruption Assessment
2004, USAID/Cambodia, p. 13. Available at
www.usaid.gov/kh/democracy_and_governance/documents/Cambodian_Corruption_Assessment.pdf
.
21
“Pakistan Flood: Only the Rich Will Be Saved: Aid Agency Protests Minority Discrimination,” at
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/pakistans-rich-diverted-floods-to-save-their-land-2069244.html
. See also
http://www.zenit.org/rssenglish-30232
;
http://tribune.com.pk/story/37842/critical-decisions-ahead-as-barrages-continue-to-resist/
;
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/pakistans-rich-diverted-floods-to-save-their-land-2069244.html
;
http://tribune.com.pk/story/37842/critical-decisions-ahead-as-barrages-continue-to-resist/
;
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/19/pakistan-flood-ban-ki-moon
.
“Pakistan Flood: Only the Rich Will Be Saved: Aid Agency Protests Minority Discrimination,” at
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/pakistans-rich-diverted-floods-to-save-their-land-2069244.html
. See also
http://www.zenit.org/rssenglish-30232
;
http://tribune.com.pk/story/37842/critical-decisions-ahead-as-barrages-continue-to-resist/
;
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/pakistans-rich-diverted-floods-to-save-their-land-2069244.html
;
http://tribune.com.pk/story/37842/critical-decisions-ahead-as-barrages-continue-to-resist/
;
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/19/pakistan-flood-ban-ki-moon
.
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