The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism (44 page)

Mojib Latif, a climate scientist at the Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research in the German city of Kiel, warned that more extreme storms and floods, like the ones Europe experienced in 2002 and 2013, are the new normal as rising world temperatures, caused by climate change, intensify precipitation events. Latif noted that powerful storms and flooding “such as the one[s] we’re seeing now are occurring about twice as often as they did a century ago.”
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Droughts are also proliferating everywhere in the world, further reducing agricultural production. Recurring drought in the western United States over the past several years has dramatically reduced agricultural output. With the 17 western states accounting for 40 percent of the nation’s net farm income, concern is mounting that climate change might turn the most bountiful farming region in the world into a desert in the coming decades. In 2012, more than 15,000 counties—half of the counties in the United States—experienced such extreme drought that they were declared national disaster areas. These agricultural regions have been experiencing temperatures of 10–20 degrees higher than the long-term averages for several years. In 2013, temperatures reached 105°F, or ten degrees higher than the threshold for most temperate-zone crops. The western United States is quickly losing surface and ground water and having to pump water in from other areas of the country, increasing its already high energy costs.
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According to a 2011 study by the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, climate change is likely to induce droughts in the United States more severe than those that caused the great dust bowl in the 1930s.
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Climate change-induced droughts are also proliferating in other regions around the world, further reducing agricultural yield. A recent study projects a twofold increased in the frequency of droughts worldwide by the mid-twenty-first century, and a threefold increase by the end of the century.
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A 2009 International Food Policy Research Institute report on the impact of climate change on agriculture in the developing world was
sobering—even more so because its forecasts were based on earlier estimates of an increase in temperature of only 3°C. South Asia is likely to be the hardest hit by 2050, with an estimated decline from the level of the year 2000 of 50 percent in wheat yields, 17 percent in rice outputs, and 6 percent in maize yields because of the impact of climate change. In East Asia and the Pacific, rice production will decrease by 20 percent, soybeans by 13 percent, wheat by 16 percent, and maize by 4 percent by 2050. The average calorie availability is forecasted to plunge by 15 percent, and cereal consumption is projected to decline by 24 percent by 2050 because of climate change. The number of malnourished children is expected to rise to 59 million in South Asia and to 14 million in East Asia and the Pacific.
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Sub-Saharan Africa, already the poorest region of the world, is expected to face equally devastating declines in food production because of
its reliance on rainfall agriculture. By 2050 average rice yields will decline by 14 percent, wheat by 22 percent, and maize by 5 percent. In a subcontinent already plagued by malnutrition, forecasts project an additional drop of 500 calories per person per day by 2050 because of climate change, which amounts to a 21 percent decline in food consumption per person. The number of malnourished children is expected to increase from 33 to 42 million in the next 38 years. The number increases to 52 million when accounting for climate change.
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The impact on agriculture in the Middle East and North Africa over the next four decades because of climate change is equally alarming. Rice yields will decline by 30 percent, maize by 47 percent, and wheat by 20 percent. As with Sub-Saharan Africa, the average person will see their food intake reduced by 500 calories per day, resulting in over 2 million malnourished children by 2050.
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Latin America and the Caribbean fare somewhat better, with rice yields declining by 6.4 percent, maize by 3 percent, soybeans by 3 percent, and wheat by 6 percent. Average food consumption will diminish by 300 calories per day or a 12 percent decline overall, with 6.4 million malnourished children in the region by 2050.
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Agricultural output in the industrialized countries of the North will also be negatively impacted by climate change. Corn and soy yields in the United States are expected to decline by 30 to 46 percent in a low carbon-dioxide-emissions scenario, and a decline of 63 to 82 percent in a high carbon-dioxide-emissions scenario by the end of the century. The higher emissions scenarios take on added significance with new scientific data suggesting their greater likelihood. These projected declines in the nation’s corn and soy yields—of 80 percent or more—are potentially catastrophic, especially when we consider the fact that the United States is the leading grain exporter in the world.
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Unless we can dramatically reduce global warming emissions to the levels Hansen and other climatologists say is required to slow the course of climate change, any hope of creating an economy of abundance, especially when it comes to food, is likely to escape us in the coming century and for centuries, if not millennia, to come.

Climate change will have no less of a dramatic impact on human infrastructure in the twenty-first century. Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes and torrential storms producing flash floods and the overflow of rivers are increasing at an alarming rate, with devastating impacts on infrastructure. Hurricane Katrina, a category 3 storm that slammed into New Orleans and the Gulf Coast in 2005, caused $148 billion in damages to the region’s infrastructure and economy and the loss of 1,833 lives. The storm destroyed more than 126,000 homes and damaged an additional 1.2 million dwellings. Three million people in eight states were without power, some for weeks, and 600,000 families were homeless, some for months.
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Sandy, also a category 3 hurricane, which roared up the East Coast in 2012, destroyed vital infrastructure from New Jersey and New York into New England. Though less severe than Katrina, it sowed a path of destruction that will take years to repair. Some 8.51 million people lost power, 305,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, and public transport came to a near halt in New York City. The estimated damage in New York and New Jersey alone exceeded $71 billion.
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The power grid, transportation arteries, telecommunications, and water and sewage systems that were never designed to withstand the fury of a runaway hydrological cycle are being crippled in regions around the world. The energy infrastructure is particularly vulnerable. Power stations near rivers and coast lines are often defenseless against storm surges. The tsunami that slammed into the east coast of Japan in 2011 tore the Fukushima nuclear facility apart, resulting in the meltdown of four of its six nuclear reactors and the spread of nuclear radiation across the island, making a 62-square-mile radius around the plant uninhabitable for decades, perhaps even centuries.
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Flooding is also disabling offshore oil rigs, leading to shutdowns and spills. Oil pipelines on land are also being adversely affected by extreme-weather-related events.
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Droughts are increasingly threatening the supply of cooling water to power stations. In France, 43 percent of all fresh water consumed each year goes to cooling nuclear reactors. When the heated water is returned, it dries out already drought-ridden ecosystems, affecting agricultural yields. At the front end, when the water becomes too hot because of extreme heat induced by climate change, it can no longer be used to cool nuclear reactors, forcing a slowdown or shutdown of nuclear power plants. In the summer of 2009, a heat wave across France led to a shortage in cooling waters, forcing one-third of the nuclear power plants in the country to shut down.
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With nuclear power accounting for 28 percent of the electricity supply of the EU, increasing temperatures, brought on by climate change, are expected to cause significant disruptions to the continent’s power generation in the years ahead.
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Extreme storms are also damaging power and transmission lines, resulting in frequent disruptions in electrical service and a record number of brownouts and blackouts. Loss of electrical power also has a cascading effect on other parts of the infrastructure since electricity is needed to maintain communication, water treatment plants, pumping stations, ICT equipment, gasoline pumps, etc.

High-intensity water-related events also damage roads, bringing freight and commuter traffic to a standstill, with severe impacts on the economy. Rail transport is also affected by washed-out rail lines. Subways are vulnerable to flooding, as was the case in New York when Hurricane Sandy swept down into the tunnels, filling them with water across lower Manhattan. Some subway service was out for days and weeks.
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Extreme wind and storms are also increasingly shutting down airports and backing up air traffic over connecting regions. Seaports and inland waterways are likewise experiencing downtime from an increase in floods, more droughts, and even more dense fog.

The water infrastructure is acutely vulnerable to changes in the hydrological cycle. Changes in rainfall patterns have multiple effects, including drought, which diminishes the available water in reservoirs. Changes in precipitation also stress drainage systems, causing backups and floods. Higher mean water temperatures can also negatively impact biological treatment processes and the quality of drinking water.
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Total public spending on infrastructure in the United States alone exceeds $300 billion per year.
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That figure is expected to rise dramatically in the decades ahead as a result of the increasing damage inflicted on infrastructure by extreme weather events. Some economists are even beginning to suggest that the price tag for maintaining human civilization could become prohibitive—forcing the human race into a new world that we can scarcely imagine.

Shoring up the existing fossil fuel infrastructure to withstand more severe weather is likely to be a futile exercise as long as our industrial society continues to emit massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. It’s simply foolish to believe that we can get ahead of the extreme weather and effectively arrest its escalating assaults by patching up a carbon-based regime.

Rather, the primary focus of our efforts should be on transitioning out of a carbon-based configuration. The IoT infrastructure offers a realistic hope of quickly replacing fossil fuel energies with renewable energies and slowing climate change. The question becomes whether the new infrastructure can be deployed around the world fast enough to significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gas emissions before climate change so disrupts the planet’s hydrological system that it becomes too late to make a difference.

The Cyberterrorists Are Out There

A second wild card that could undermine efforts to transition into a sustainable economy of abundance is cyberterrorism. Governments and businesses around the world are becoming increasingly alarmed over the escalation of cyberterrorist attacks aimed at infrastructure and are voicing growing concern over the possibility that they might cripple and even shut down many of the vital services necessary to operate society, leading to a high-tech Armageddon and the collapse of civilization.

In 2009, hackers deep inside North Korea succeeded in shutting down websites at the U.S. Treasury Department, the Secret Service, and the Federal Trade Commission. That same year it was discovered that hackers had
inserted sophisticated software into the U.S. electricity grid that would allow them to disrupt the system at a later date of their own choosing.
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Other cyberattacks aimed at governments, businesses, and infrastructure have been proliferating ever since, with greater ability to disrupt and inflict damage. Hacking has graduated from pranks to terrorist activity, creating a new mass fear not unlike the terror people felt with the spread of nuclear weaponry in the latter half of the twentieth century.

Cyberterrorists employ software programs to do damage in both virtual and physical space. The Center for Strategic and International Studies defines cyberterror as “the use of computer network tools to shut down critical national infrastructures (such as energy, transportation, government operations) or to coerce or intimidate a government or civilian population.”
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In March 2013, American Express card members attempting to access online accounts found instead a blank screen. The site was down for more than two hours. The American Express cyberattack was just one in a series of highly choreographed assaults that began six months earlier and had taken down, if only temporarily, some of the world’s leading financial institutions, including Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo. A group calling itself Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Cyber Fighters claimed responsibility for the cyberattacks, saying that they were a reprisal for an anti-Islamic video on YouTube. The group was suspected of being a front for the Iranian government. In the same vein, the United States and Israel were successful in using online hacking to disable much of Iran’s nuclear enrichment plants. In retaliation, Iran announced the establishment of its own state-run initiative, which it dubbed Cyber Corps, to retaliate.
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The mounting concern over cyberattacks has spawned a massive cyber-security industry. The global cyber-security market, already at $61.1 billion in 2012, is expected to top $100 billion by 2030, according to a study done by Morgan Stanley.
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Governments are most worried about attacks aimed at the electrical power grid. A U.S. government commission report noted that

electrical power is necessary to support other critical infrastructures, including supply and distribution of water, food, fuel, communications, transport, financial transactions, emergency services, governments services, and all other infrastructures supporting the national economy and welfare.
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