Unthinkable (70 page)

13.
 For other ardent proponents of engagement with Iran agreeing that the Obama administration had sincerely tried to do so, see, inter alia, Suzanne Maloney, “Progress of the Obama Administration's Policy Toward Iran,” Testimony Before the House Subcommittee on National Security, Homeland Defense and Foreign Operations, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, November 15, 2011; Barbara Slavin, “Post-9/11 Rebuffs Set U.S.-Iran Relations on Downward Spiral,” InterPress News Service, September 7, 2011, available at
http://www.ipsnews.net/2011/09/post-9-11-rebuffs-set-us-iran-relations-on-downward-spiral/
.

14.
 These were the exact words used by a senior administration official to me in a conversation in July 2009, but these sentiments were echoed by a range of other Obama administration officials around the same time.

15.
 Karim Sadjadpour, “The Iranian Regime Is Now More Vulnerable than Ever Before,”
Qantara
, November 13, 2009, translated into English and available at
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2009/11/13/iranian-regime-is-now-more-vulnerable-than-ever-before/6a2
.

16.
 Again, these were the words of one senior Chinese foreign ministry official, but the sentiment was repeated by a number of others. Author's interviews, Beijing, April 2010.

17.
 For a concurring view, see Karim Sadjadpour, “Interview: Running a Marathon, Not a Sprint,”
Der Spiegel
, February 17, 2010.

18.
 On the TRR deal, see Mark Fitzpatrick, “Iran: The Fragile Promise of the Fuel-Swap Plan,”
Survival
52, no. 3 (June/July 2010): 67–94; Paul K. Kerr, “Iran's Nuclear Program: Status,” RL34544, Congressional Research Service, October 17, 2012, pp. 7–9.

19.
 Bernard Gwertzman, “Nuclear Quagmire with Iran: Interview with George Perkovich,” Council on Foreign Relations, November 23, 2009, available at
http://www.cfr.org/iran/nuclear-quagmire-iran/p20831
; Karim Sadjadpour, “Interview: Engagement with Iran: An Assessment of Options,”
Middle East Progress
, December 8, 2009.

20.
 “Remarks by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei,” Islamic Republic News Agency, August 20, 2010.

21.
 Kerr, “Iran's Nuclear Program,” pp. 8–9.

22.
 Arshad Mohammed, Justyna Pawlak, and Warren Strobel, “Special Report: Inside the West's Economic War with Iran,” Reuters, December 28, 2012.

23.
 David D. Kirkpatrick, “Chinese Visit to Saudi Arabia Touches on Oil and Politics,”
New York Times
, January 15, 2012; Mark Landler and Clifford Krauss, “Gulf Nations Aid U.S. Push to Choke Off Iran Oil Sales,”
New York Times
, January 12, 2012.

24.
 U.S. sanctions on Iran are summarized in Office of Foreign Assets Control, “Iran: What You Need to Know About U.S. Economic Sanctions,” U.S. Department of the Treasury, available at
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Documents/iran.pdf
.

25.
 The U.S. Department of State maintains a website with useful summaries of these various sanctions at
http://www.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/iran/fs/index.htm
.

26.
 James Kanter and Thomas Erdbrink, “With New Sanctions, European Union Tightens Screws on Iran over Nuclear Work,”
New York Times
, October 15, 2012; Justyna Pawlak, “EU Sanctions Target Iran Oil, Gas, Tanker Companies,” Reuters, October 16, 2012.

27.
 Rick Gladstone and Stephen Castle, “Global Network Expels as Many as 30 of Iran's Banks in Move to Isolate Its Economy,”
New York Times
, March 15, 2012.

28.
 Public remarks by Bijan Khajepour, Washington, D.C., Stimson Center–Heinrich Böll Foundation event, March 4, 2013.

29.
 Initially, much of the impact from sanctions was principally a result of the regime's mismanaged reactions to them. See “Spider Web: The Making and Unmaking of Iran Sanctions,” Middle East Report No. 138, International Crisis Group, February 25, 2013, pp. 24–26, 30.

30.
 Nasser Karimi and Brian Murphy, “Iran Forces on Alert as Economic ‘Surgery' Begins,” Associated Press, December 19, 2010.

31.
 Mohammad Ali Shabani, “Iran Survives Sanctions, Girds for Further Economic War,” Al-Monitor, December 20, 2012.

32.
 Thomas Erdbrink and David E. Sanger, “U.S. Increases Pressure of Economic War on Tehran,”
New York Times
, February 6, 2013.

33.
 Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, “Understanding the Rial's Freefall,” Lobelog, October 4, 2012, available at
http://www.lobelog.com/understanding-the-rials-freefall/
; Yeganeh Torbati, “Iran's Khamenei Warns of Government Divisions After Rial Plunge,” Reuters, October 10, 2012.

34.
 “Spider Web,” International Crisis Group, p. 26.

35.
 Jay Newton-Small, “One Nation Under Sanctions,”
Time,
September 24, 2013, p. 42.

36.
 “Spider Web,” International Crisis Group, pp. 37–38.

37.
 Farideh Farhi, “Iran Debates Direct Talks with the US,” Lobelog, December 11, 2012, available at
http://www.lobelog.com/iran-debates-direct-talks-with-the-us/
.

38.
 “Iran Pulls Back from Nuclear Bomb Goal: Israeli Defense Minister,” Reuters, October 30, 2012; David E. Sanger and James Risen, “Iran's Slowing of Enrichment Efforts May Show It Wants a Deal, Analysts Say,”
New York Times
, December 27, 2012.

39.
 Ruholamin Saeidi, “Worn-out Revolutionaries and the Conspiracy of the Poisoned Chalice,”
Kayhan
, December 8, 2012, translated by Eskander Saeghi-Boroujerdi, Iran Pulse of Al-Monitor, December 10, 2012, available at
http://iranpulse.al-monitor.com/index.php/2012/12/973/Kayhan-article-indicates-discontent-with-supreme-leaders-course-across-the-political-spectrum/
.

40.
 Yeganeh Torbati, “Iran Says It, World Powers Must End Nuclear Stalemate,” Reuters, December 17, 2012.

41.
 Andrew Torchia, “Analysis: Iran Economy Far from Collapse as Sanctions Tighten,” Reuters, February, 20, 2013.

42.
 “Spider Web,” International Crisis Group, p. 31.

43.
 Erdbrink and Sanger, “U.S. Increases Pressure of Economic War on Tehran.”

44.
 Shabani, “Iran Survives Sanctions, Girds for Further Economic War.”

45.
 Shaul Bakhash,
The Reign of the Ayatollahs: Iran and the Islamic Revolution
, rev. ed. (New York: Basic Books, 1990), p. 230; CIA,
World Factbook
(Washington, D.C: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1989); Michael M. J. Fischer,
Iran: From Religious Dispute to Revolution
(Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1980), p. 224.

46.
 Patrick Clawson, “Adjustment to a Foreign Exchange Shock: Iran, 1951–1953,”
International Journal of Middle East Studies
19, No. 1 (February 1987): 1–22.

47.
 David E. Sanger, “Iran Offers Plan, Dismissed By U.S., on Nuclear Crisis,”
New York Times
, October 4, 2012.

48.
 “Spider Web,” International Crisis Group, p. ii.

49.
 “The Impact of Sanctions on Iran, the US, and the Global Economy,” National Iranian American Council Policy Briefing, October 4, 2011, podcast avail-able at
http://www.linktv.org/programs/the-impact-of-sanctions-on-iran
.

50.
 Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, “Understanding the Rial's Freefall,” Lobelog, October 4, 2012, available at
http://www.lobelog.com/understanding-the-rials-freefall/
.

51.
 Suzanne Maloney, correspondence with the author, October 2012. Printed with Dr. Maloney's permission.

52.
 Yeganeh Torbati, “Iran's Khamenei Warns of Government Divisions After Rial Plunge,” Reuters, October 10, 2012.

53.
 Nasser Karimi, “Iran's Supreme Leader Rejects Direct Talks with US,” Associated Press, February 7, 2013.

54.
 Nasser Karimi, “Ahmadinejad Says Western Sanctions Won't Stop Iran,” Associated Press, December 18, 2012.

55.
 Saeidi, “Worn-out Revolutionaries and the Conspiracy of the Poisoned Chalice.”

56.
 Scott Peterson, “Inside the Mind of Iran's Khamenei,”
Christian Science Monitor
, December 4, 2012.

57.
 Ray Takeyh,
Guardians of the Revolution: Iran and the World in the Age of the Ayatollahs
(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009), pp. 240–41.

58.
 Ray Takeyh,
Hidden Iran: Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic
(New York: Times Books, 2006), p. 150.

59.
 Ibid., pp. 40–42.

60.
 Shabani, “Iran Survives Sanctions, Girds for Further Economic War.”

61.
 Nidhi Verma, “India Plans Reinsurance Fund to Cover Refiners Using Iranian Oil,” Reuters, March 24, 2013.

62.
 Humeyra Pamuk and Emma Farge, “Iran Sidesteps Sanctions to Export Its Fuel Oil,” Reuters, December 20, 2012.

63.
 Luke Pachymuthu, “Iran's Q1 Fuel Oil Exports Rise More Than 12 Pct over Q4—Sources,” Reuters, April 10, 2013.

64.
 Ali Akbar Dareini, “Ahmadinejad: Iran Won't Retreat from Nuclear Path,” Associated Press, October 9, 2011.

65.
 Amos Yadlin and Yoel Guzansky, “Iran on the Threshold,”
Strategic Assessment
15, No. 1 (April 2012): 12.

66.
 Barak Ravid, “Israel Inches Closer to Compromise on Iran Uranium Enrichment, Officials Say,”
Haaretz
, May 21, 2012.

67.
 Yeganeh Torbati, “Iran Could Halt 20 Percent Uranium Enrichment If Given Fuel: Officials,” Reuters, October 13, 2012.

68.
 Ibid.

69.
 For a concurring, Israeli assessment and emphasis on this point, see Yadlin and Guzansky, “Iran on the Threshold,” pp. 8–10.

70.
 Ibid., p. 12.

71.
 Yeganeh Torbati, “Iran Will Never Shut Down Fordow Enrichment Plant: MP,” Reuters, February 17, 2013.

72.
 For a fuller discussion of these ideas, see Kenneth M. Pollack, “Security in the Persian Gulf: New Frameworks for the 21st Century,” Middle East Memo No. 24, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution, June 2012, available at
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/6/middle%20east%20pollack/middle%20east%20pollack.pdf
; Kenneth M. Pollack, “Securing the Gulf,”
Foreign Affairs
82, No. 4 (July/August 2003): 2–16. Also see Joseph McMillan, “The United States and a Gulf Security Architecture: Policy Considerations,”
Strategic Insights
3, No. 3 (March 2004); James A. Russell, “Searching for a Post-Saddam Regional Security Architecture,”
Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA)
7, No. 1 (March 2003).

73.
 M. Javad Zarif, “A Neighbor's Vision of a New Iraq,”
New York Times
, May 10, 2003.

74.
 The
Times'
reportage is summarized in David E. Sanger,
Confront and Conceal: Obama's Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power
(New York: Crown, 2012), pp. 188–225. In addition, see David E. Sanger, “America's Deadly Dynamics with Iran,”
New York Times,
November 5, 2011.

75.
 Christopher Hope, “MI6 Chief Sir John Sawers: ‘We Foiled Iranian Nuclear Weapons Bid,' ”
Telegraph
, July 12, 2012.

76.
 Sanger,
Confront and Conceal
; David E. Sanger, “Obama Order Sped Up Wave of Cyberattacks Against Iran,”
New York Times
, June 1, 2012.

77.
 Sanger,
Confront and Conceal
, pp. 197–203.

78.
 When asked about the Flame virus, Israel's vice prime minister and strategic affairs minister, Moshe Yaalon, told Israeli Army Radio, “Anyone who sees the Iranian threat as a significant threat—it's reasonable that he will
take various steps, including these, to harm it.” Thomas Erdbrink, “Iran Confirms Attack by Virus That Collects Information,”
New York Times
, May 29, 2012.

79.
 Thomas Erdbrink, “Facing Cyberattack, Iranian Officials Disconnect Some Oil Terminals from Internet,”
New York Times
, April 23, 2012; Rick Gladstone, “Iran Suggests Attacks on Computer Systems Came from the U.S. and Israel,”
New York Times
, December 25, 2012; “Iran Says Defeats Cyber Attacks on Industrial Sites,” Reuters, December 25, 2012.

80.
 Erdbrink, “Facing Cyberattack, Iranian Officials Disconnect Some Oil Terminals from Internet.”

81.
 See, for instance, Crist,
The Twilight War
, pp. 552–53; Eli Lake, “Who Is Sabotaging Iran's Nukes?”
Daily Beast
, September 19, 2012.

82.
 See for instance, Ronen Bergman, “Will Israel Attack Iran?”
New York Times Magazine
, January 25, 2012; Dan Raviv and Yossi Melman,
Spies Against Armageddon: Inside Israel's Secret Wars
(Sea Cliff, N.Y.: Levant Books, 2012), pp. 312–25.

83.
 Anshel Pfeffer, “The Bulgaria Attack: Hard Truths from Israel's Former National Security Chief,” Haaretz, July 19, 2012.

84.
 “Iran Sends Rare Letter to U.S. over Killed Scientist,” Reuters, January 15, 2012.

85.
 M. K. Bhadrakumar, “Foreign Devils in the Iranian Mountains,”
Asia Times
, February 24, 2007; Frances Harrison, “Iranians Fear of the ‘Little Devil,' ” BBC News, June 21, 2007, available at
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/6222876.stm
; “Iran: Many Die in Zahedan Mosque Bombing,” BBC News, May 28, 2009, available at
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8072795.stm
; Chris Zambelis, “Balochi Nationalists Intensify Violent Rebellion in Iran,”
Terrorism Monitor
7, No. 3, Jamestown Foundation, February 9, 2009.