The End of Doom (48 page)

observed global mean surface air temperature:
H. Douville, A. Voldoire, and O. Geoffroy, “The Recent Global-Warming Hiatus: What Is the Role of Pacific Variability?”
Geophysical Research Letters,
January 2015,
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL062775/abstract
.

thirty-four of the climate models:
Patrick T. Brown, Wenhong Li, and Shang-Ping Xie, “Regions of Significant Influence on Unforced Global Mean Surface Air Temperature Variability in Climate Models.”
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,
January 2015,
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD022576/abstract
.

why global mean surface temperatures:
Tim Lucas, “Climate Models Disagree On Why Temperature Wiggles Occur.” Duke University environment press release, January 26, 2015,
nicholas.duke.edu/news/climate-models-disagree-why-temperature-wiggles-occur
.

results of comparing the outputs:
Jochem Marotzke and Piers M. Forster, “Forcing, Feedback and Internal Variability in Global Temperature Trends.”
Nature
517 (January 29, 2015) 565–570.
www.nature.com/nature/journal/v517/n7536/full/nature14117.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20150129#author-information
.

“they don't get them at the right time”:
Piers Forster cited by
ReportingClimateScience.com
, “Study: Models Not to Blame in Failure to Predict Pause,” January 28, 2015,
www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/models-not-to-blame-in-failure-to-predict-pause-says-study.html
.

What natural fluctuations:
Bryon A. Steinman, Michael E. Mann, Sonya K. Miller, “Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures,” Science, February 27, 2015, 988–991,
www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6225/988
.

“ocean warming dominates”:
IPCC,
Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report,
November 2014, 6.
www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf
.

natural internal variability:
Judith Curry, “The IPCC's Inconvenient Truth.”
Climate, Etc.,
September 20, 2013.
judithcurry.com/2013/09/20/the-ipccs-inconvenient-truth/
.

Researchers from the Pacific Northwest:
Steven J. Smith, James Edmonds, Corinne A. Hartin, Anupriya Mundra and Katherine Calvin, “Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change,”
Nature Climate Change,
March 9, 2015,
www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2552.html
.

mild El Niño–like conditions:
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, “ESNO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions,” January 19, 2015,
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
.

“most likely value of equilibrium climate sensitivity”:
A. Otto et al., “Energy Budget Constraints on Climate Response.”
Nature Geoscience
6.6 (June 2013): 415–416.
eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/76064/7/ngeo1836%281%29_with_coversheet.pdf
.

“is 1.8°C, with 90% C.I.”:
R. B. Skeie et al., “A Lower and More Constrained Estimate of Climate Sensitivity Using Updated Observations and Detailed Radiative Forcing Time Series.”
Earth Systems Dynamics
5 (March 25, 2014): 139–175.
www.earth-syst-dynam.net/5/139/2014/esd-5-139-2014.html
.

calculated a transient climate response:
Drew Shindell, “Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity.”
Nature Climate Change
4 (March 9, 2014): 274–277.
www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n4/nclimate2136/metrics
.

researchers at Texas A&M University:
J. R. Kummer and A. E. Dessler, “The Impact of Forcing Efficacy on the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity.”
Geophysical Research Letters
41.10 (May 28, 2014): 3565–3568.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060046/abstract
.

the best estimate for climate sensitivity:
Nicholas Lewis and Judith Curry, “The Implications for Climate Sensitivity of AR5 Forcing and Heat Uptake Estimates.”
Climate Dynamics,
September 2014, 1–15.
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2342-y
.

twenty years of temperature observations:
Nathan M. Urban et al., “Historical and Future Learning About Climate Sensitivity.”
Geophysical Research Letters
41.7 (April 16, 2014): 2543–2552.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059484/abstract
.

“Impacts of ocean acidification”:
IPCC,
Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability,
April 2014, Chapter 6, 138.
ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap6_FGDall.pdf
.

as acidity increases:
K. L. Ricke et al., “Risks to Coral Reefs from Ocean Carbon Chemistry Changes in Recent Earth Systems Model Projections.”
Environmental Research Letters,
July 3, 2013, 6.
iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034003/pdf/1748-9326_8_3_034003.pdf
.

corals might reach a tipping point:
O. Hoegh-Guldberg et al., “Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification.”
Science
318.5857 (December 2007): 1737–1742.
www.geneseo.edu/~bosch/Hoegh-Guldberg.pdf
.

tropical reefs might not be affected:
S. Comeau et al., “The Responses of Eight Coral Reef Calcifiers to Increasing Partial Pressure of CO
2
Do Not Exhibit a Tipping Point.”
Limnology and Oceanography
58.1 (January 2013): 388–398.
www.aslo.info/lo/toc/vol_58/issue_1/0388.pdf
.

cold-water Mediterranean corals:
C. Maier et al., “Respiration of Mediterranean Cold-Water Corals Is Not Affected by Ocean Acidification as Projected for the End of the Century.”
Biogeosciences
10 (August 27, 2013): 5671–5680,
biogeosciences.net/10/5671/2013/bg-10-5671-2013.pdf
; see also S. J. Hennige et al., “Short-Term Metabolic and Growth Responses of the Cold-Water Coral Lophelia pertusa to Ocean Acidification.”
Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography
99 (January 2014): 27–35.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967064513002774
.

overall effects on marine organisms:
Astrid C. Wittman and Hans-O. P
ö
rtner, “Sensitivities of Extant Animal Taxa to Ocean Acidification.”
Nature Climate Change
3 (August 25, 2013): 995–1001,
www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n11/full/nclimate1982.html
; and also, Kristy J. Kroeker et al., “Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine Organisms: Quantifying Sensitivities and Interaction with Warming.”
Global Change Biology
19.6 (June 2013): 1884–1896.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3664023/
.

damages in 2095 are $12 trillion:
William D. Nordhaus, “Economic Aspects of Global Warming in a Post-Copenhagen Environment.”
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
107.26 (May 10, 2010): 11721–11726.
www.pnas.org/content/107/26/11721.full.pdf+html&
.

how the world's economy might evolve:
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, SSP Database Version 0.9.3, revised March 2013,
secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about
.

an average of about 1.5 percent:
William Nordhaus,
The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World
. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2013, 139.

business-as-usual path:
Nicholas Stern,
Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change,
Executive Summary, 2006.
siteresources.worldbank.org/INTINDONESIA/Resources/226271-1170911056314/3428109-1174614780539/SternReviewEng.pdf
.

“rich generations have a lower ethical claim”:
Nordhaus,
The Climate Casino,
187.

extreme weather:
Michael Bastasch, “Boxer Uses Oklahoma Tornado to Push Carbon Tax.”
The Daily Caller,
May 21, 2013.
dailycaller.com/2013/05/21/boxer-uses-okla-tornado-to-push-carbon-tax/
.

destruction caused by Superstorm Sandy:
Greenpeace, “Hurricane Sandy = Climate Change,” Extreme Weather and Climate Change, 2013.
www.greenpeace.org/usa/en/campaigns/global-warming-and-energy/Extreme-Weather-and-Climate-Change/
.

hurricanes, typhoons, hailstorms, or tornadoes:
IPCC,
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012.
www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/
.

economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters:
IPCC,
Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report,
November 2014, 16.
www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf
.

“there has been little change in drought”:
Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood, and Michael Roderick, “Little Change in Global Drought over the Past 60 Years.”
Nature
491 (November 14, 2012): 435–438.
www.nature.com/nature/journal/v491/n7424/full/nature11575.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20121115
.

not a factor in the extreme drought:
Richard Seager et al., “Causes and Predictability of the 2011–14 California Drought.” NOAA Drought Task Force, December 2014.
cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/MAPP/Task%20Forces/DTF/californiadrought/california_drought_report.pdf
.

“has declined by more than 90 percent”:
Indur Goklany, Wealth and Safety: The Amazing Decline in Deaths from Extreme Weather in an Era of Global Warming, 1900–2010. Reason Foundation, September 2011.
reason.org/files/deaths_from_extreme_weather_1900_2010.pdf
.

“anthropogenic climate change so far”:
Laurens Bouwer, “Have Disaster Losses Increased Due to Anthropogenic Climate Change?”
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
January 27, 2011, 39–46.
journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010BAMS3092.1
.

“same result for all disasters”:
Eric Neumayer and Fabian Barthel, “Normalizing Economic Loss from Natural Disasters: A Global Analysis (December 5, 2010).”
Global Environmental Change
21.1 (2011) 13–24. Available at SSRN:
ssrn.com/abstract=1720414
.

“Results show no detectable sign”:
J. I. Barredo, “Normalised Flood Losses in Europe 1970–2006.”
Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences
9 (February 9, 2009): 97–104,
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/97/2009/nhess-9-97-2009.pdf
; and J. I. Barredo, “No Upward Trend in Normalised Windstorm Losses in Europe: 1970–2008,”
Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences
10 (January 15, 2010): 97–104.
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/97/2009/nhess-9-97-2009.pdf
.

global greenhouse gas emissions:
IPCC,
Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change,
www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/
; Summary for Policymakers,
report.mitigation2014.org/spm/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers_approved.pdf
; Technical Summary,
report.mitigation2014.org/drafts/final-draft-postplenary/ipcc_wg3_ar5_final-draft_postplenary_technical-summary.pdf
.

each country made pledges:
US-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change, White House, November 11, 2014.
www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/11/11/us-china-joint-announcement-climate-change
.

preliminary draft document:
UNFCCC,
The Lima Call for Climate Action,
Decision-/CP.20,
unfccc.int/files/meetings/lima_dec_2014/application/pdf/auv_cop20_lima_call_for_climate_action.pdf
.

permit prices had risen:
Ewa Krukowska, “EON Urges EU Policy Revamp as Power Market Faces Crisis,” Bloomberg, May 6, 2014,
www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-06/eon-urges-eu-policy-revamp-as-power-markets-face-crisis.html
.

Far under the price:
Stanley Reed, “European Lawmakers Try to Spur Market for Carbon Emissions Credits.”
New York Times,
February 6, 2014.
www.nytimes.com/2014/02/07/business/international/european-lawmakers-try-to-spur-market-for-carbon-emission-credits.html?_r=0
.

will cost European consumers:
Michael Szabo and Jeff Coelho, “EUAs Could Crash to 3 Euros Next Year, Says UBS.”
Climate Justice Now,
November 18, 2011,
www.climate-justice-now.org/euas-could-crash-to-3-euros-next-year-says-ubs/
.

“natural baseline is a zero-carbon-tax level of emissions”:
William D. Nordhaus, “After Kyoto: Alternative Mechanisms to Control Global Warming.”
Foreign Policy in Focus,
March 26, 2006.
fpif.org/after_kyoto_alternative_mechanisms_to_control_global_warming/
.

government consumption subsidies for fossil fuels:
International Energy Agency, Energy Subsidies,
World Energy Outlook
.
www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/energysubsidies/
.

barmy to subsidize agriculture:
“Farmgate: The Developmental Impact of Agricultural Subsidies,” ActionAid, 2012.
www.actionaid.org.uk/sites/default/files/content_document/farmgate_3132004_12159.pdf
.

“Prudence demands that we consider”:
Ken Caldeira, “We Should Plan for the Worst-Case Climate Scenario.”
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,
July 29, 2008,
thebulletin.org/has-time-come-geoengineering/we-should-plan-worst-case-climate-scenario
.