The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (2 page)

Information, Order, and Evolution: The Insights from Wolfram and Fredkin’s Cellular Automata
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Can We Evolve Artificial Intelligence from Simple Rules?

The Singularity as Economic Imperative

Get Eighty Trillion Dollars—Limited Time Only
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Deflation. . . a Bad Thing?

CHAPTER THREE

Achieving the Computational Capacity of the Human Brain

The Sixth Paradigm of Computing Technology: Three-Dimensional

Molecular Computing and Emerging Computational Technologies

The Bridge to 3-D Molecular Computing
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Nanotubes Are Still the Best Bet
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Computing with Molecules
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Self-Assembly
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Emulating Biology
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Computing with DNA
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Computing with Spin
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Computing with Light
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Quantum Computing
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The Computational Capacity of the Human Brain

Accelerating the Availability of Human-Level Personal Computing
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Human Memory Capacity
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The Limits of Computation

Reversible Computing
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How Smart Is a Rock?
The Limits of Nanocomputing
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Setting a Date for the Singularity
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Memory and Computational Efficiency: A Rock Versus a Human Brain
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Going Beyond the Ultimate: Pico- and Femtotechnology and Bending the Speed of Light
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Going Back in Time
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CHAPTER FOUR

Achieving the Software of Human Intelligence: How to Reverse Engineer the Human Brain

Reverse Engineering the Brain: An Overview of the Task

New Brain-Imaging and Modeling Tools
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The Software of the Brain
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Analytic Versus Neuromorphic Modeling of the Brain
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How Complex Is the Brain?
Modeling the Brain
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Peeling the Onion
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Is the Human Brain Different from a Computer?

The Brain’s Circuits Are Very Slow
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But It’s Massively Parallel
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The Brain Combines Analog and Digital Phenomena
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The Brain Rewires Itself
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Most of the Details in the Brain Are Random
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The Brain Uses Emergent Properties
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The Brain Is Imperfect
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We Contradict Ourselves
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The Brain Uses Evolution
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The Patterns Are Important
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The Brain Is Holographic
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The Brain Is Deeply Connected
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The Brain Does Have an Architecture of Regions
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The Design of a Brain Region Is Simpler than the Design of a Neuron
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Trying to Understand Our Own Thinking
:
The Accelerating Pace of Research
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Peering into the Brain

New Tools for Scanning the Brain
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Improving Resolution
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Scanning Using Nanobots
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Building Models of the Brain

Subneural Models: Synapses and Spines
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Neuron Models
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Electronic Neurons
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Brain Plasticity
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Modeling Regions of the Brain
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A Neuromorphic Model: The Cerebellum
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Another Example: Watts’s Model of the Auditory Regions
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The Visual System
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Other Works in Progress: An Artificial Hippocampus and an Artificial Olivocerebellar Region
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Understanding Higher-Level Functions: Imitation, Prediction, and Emotion
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Interfacing the Brain and Machines

The Accelerating Pace of Reverse Engineering the Brain

The Scalability of Human Intelligence
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Uploading the Human Brain

CHAPTER FIVE

GNR: Three Overlapping Revolutions

Genetics: The Intersection of Information and Biology

Life’s Computer
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Designer Baby Boomers
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Can We Really Live Forever?
RNAi (RNA Interference)
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Cell Therapies
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Gene Chips
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Somatic Gene Therapy
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Reversing Degenerative Disease
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Combating Heart Disease
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Overcoming Cancer
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Reversing Aging
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DNA Mutations
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Toxic Cells
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Mitochondrial Mutations
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Intracellular Aggregates
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Extracellular Aggregates
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Cell Loss and Atrophy
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Human Cloning: The Least Interesting Application of Cloning Technology
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Why Is Cloning Important?
Preserving Endangered Species and Restoring Extinct Ones
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Therapeutic Cloning
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Human Somatic-Cell Engineering
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Solving World Hunger
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Human Cloning Revisited
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Nanotechnology: The Intersection of Information and the Physical World

The Biological Assembler
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Upgrading the Cell Nucleus with a Nanocomputer and Nanobot
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Fat and Sticky Fingers
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The Debate Heats Up
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Early Adopters
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Powering the Singularity
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Applications of Nanotechnology to the Environment
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Nanobots in the Bloodstream
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Robotics: Strong AI

Runaway AI
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The AI Winter
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AI’s Toolkit
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Expert Systems
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Bayesian Nets
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Markov Models
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Neural Nets
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Genetic Algorithms (GAs)
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Recursive Search
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Deep Fritz Draws: Are Humans Getting Smarter, or Are Computers Getting Stupider?
The Specialized-Hardware Advantage
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Deep Blue Versus Deep Fritz
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Significant Software Gains
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Are Human Chess Players Doomed?
Combining Methods
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A Narrow AI Sampler
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Military and Intelligence
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Space Exploration
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Medicine
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Science and Math
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Business, Finance, and Manufacturing
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Manufacturing and Robotics
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Speech and Language
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Entertainment and Sports
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Strong AI
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CHAPTER SIX

The Impact . . .

A Panoply of Impacts
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... on the Human Body

A New Way of Eating
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Redesigning the Digestive System
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Programmable Blood
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Have a Heart, or Not
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So What’s Left?
Redesigning the Human Brain
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We Are Becoming Cyborgs
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Human Body Version 3.0
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... on the Human Brain

The 2010 Scenario
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The 2030 Scenario
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Become Someone Else
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Experience Beamers
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Expand Your Mind
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... on Human Longevity

The Transformation to Nonbiological Experience
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The Longevity of Information
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... on Warfare: The Remote, Robotic, Robust, Size-Reduced, Virtual-Reality Paradigm

Smart Dust
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Nanoweapons
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Smart Weapons
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VR
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... on Learning

... on Work

Intellectual Property
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Decentralization
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... on Play

... on the Intelligent Destiny of the Cosmos:

Why We Are Probably Alone in the Universe

The Drake Equation
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The Limits of Computation Revisited
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Bigger or Smaller
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Expanding Beyond the Solar System
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The Speed of Light Revisited
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Wormholes
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Changing the Speed of Light
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The Fermi Paradox Revisited
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The Anthropic Principle Revisited
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The Multiverse
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Evolving Universes
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Intelligence as the Destiny of the Universe
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The Ultimate Utility Function
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Hawking Radiation
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Why Intelligence Is More Powerful than Physics
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A Universe-Scale Computer
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The Holographic Universe
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CHAPTER SEVEN

Ich bin ein Singularitarian

Still Human?

The Vexing Question of Consciousness

Who Am I? What Am I?

The Singularity as Transcendence

CHAPTER EIGHT

The Deeply Intertwined Promise and Peril of GNR

Intertwined Benefits . . .

... and Dangers

A Panoply of Existential Risks

The Precautionary Principle
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The Smaller the Interaction, the Larger the Explosive Potential
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Our Simulation Is Turned Off
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Crashing the Party
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GNR: The Proper Focus of Promise Versus Peril
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The Inevitability of a Transformed Future
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Totalitarian Relinquishment
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Preparing the Defenses

Strong AI
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Returning to the Past?

The Idea of Relinquishment

Broad Relinquishment
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Fine-Grained Relinquishment
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Dealing with Abuse
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The Threat from Fundamentalism
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Fundamentalist Humanism
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Development of Defensive Technologies and the Impact of Regulation

Protection from “Unfriendly” Strong AI
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Decentralization
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Distributed Energy
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Civil Liberties in an Age of Asymmetric Warfare
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A Program for GNR Defense

CHAPTER NINE

Response to Critics

A Panoply of Criticisms

The Criticism from Incredulity

The Criticism from Malthus

Exponential Trends Don’t Last Forever
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A Virtually Unlimited Limit
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The Criticism from Software

Software Stability
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Software Responsiveness
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Software Price-Performance
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Software Development Productivity
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Software Complexity
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Accelerating Algorithms
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The Ultimate Source of Intelligent Algorithms
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The Criticism from Analog Processing

The Criticism from the Complexity of Neural Processing

Brain Complexity
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A Computer’s Inherent Dualism
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Levels and Loops
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The Criticism from Microtubules and Quantum Computing

The Criticism from the Church-Turing Thesis

The Criticism from Failure Rates

The Criticism from “Lock-In”

The Criticism from Ontology: Can a Computer Be Conscious?

Kurzweil’s Chinese Room
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The Criticism from the Rich-Poor Divide

The Criticism from the Likelihood of Government Regulation

The Unbearable Slowness of Social Institutions
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The Criticism from Theism

The Criticism from Holism

Epilogue

How Singular?
Human Centrality
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Resources and Contact Information

Appendix: The Law of Accelerating Returns Revisited

Notes

Index

Acknowledgments

I’
d like to express my deep appreciation to my mother, Hannah, and my father, Fredric, for supporting all of my early ideas and inventions without question, which gave me the freedom to experiment;
to my sister Enid for her inspiration; and to my wife, Sonya, and my kids, Ethan and Amy, who give my life meaning, love, and motivation.